Scenarios in the development of Mediterranean cyclones

The Mediterranean is one of the most cyclogenetic regions in the world. The cyclones are concentrated along its northern coasts and their tracks are oriented more or less west-east, with several secondary tracks connecting them to Europe and to North Africa. The aim of this study is to examine scenarios in the development of Mediterranean cyclones, based on five selected winter seasons (October–March). We detected the cyclones subjectively using 6-hourly Sea-Level Pressure maps, based on the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis archive. <br><br> HMSO (1962) has shown that most Mediterranean cyclones (58%) enter the Mediterranean from the Atlantic Ocean (through Biscay and Gibraltar), and from the south-west, the Sahara Desert, while the rest are formed in the Mediterranean Basin itself. Our study revealed that only 13% of the cyclones entered the Mediterranean, while 87% were generated in the Mediterranean Basin. The entering cyclones originate in three different regions: the Sahara Desert (6%), the Atlantic Ocean (4%), and Western Europe (3%). <br><br> The cyclones formed within the Mediterranean Basin were found to generate under the influence of external cyclonic systems, i.e. as "daughter cyclones" to "parent cyclones" or troughs. These parent systems are located in three regions: Europe (61%), North Africa and the Red Sea (34.5%) and the Mediterranean Basin itself (4.5%). The study presents scenarios in the development of Mediterranean cyclones during the winter season, emphasizing the cyclogenesis under the influence of various external forcing. <br><br> The large difference with respect to the findings of HMSO (1962) is partly explained by the dominance of spring cyclones generating in the Sahara Desert, especially in April and May that were not included in our study period

The spatio-temporal distribution of lightning over Israel and the neighboring area and its relation to regional synoptic systems

The spatio-temporal distribution of lightning flashes over Israel and the neighboring area and its relation to the regional synoptic systems has been studied, based on data obtained from the Israel Lightning Location System (ILLS) operated by the Israel Electric Corporation (IEC). The system detects cloud-to-ground lightning discharges in a range of ~500 km around central Israel (32.5° N, 35° E). The study period was defined for annual activity from August through July, for 5 seasons in the period 2004–2010. <br><br> The spatial distribution of lightning flash density indicates the highest concentration over the Mediterranean Sea, attributed to the contribution of moisture as well as sensible and latent heat fluxes from the sea surface. Other centers of high density appear along the coastal plain, orographic barriers, especially in northern Israel, and downwind from the metropolitan area of Tel Aviv, Israel. The intra-annual distribution shows an absence of lightning during the summer months (JJA) due to the persistent subsidence over the region. The vast majority of lightning activity occurs during 7 months, October to April. Although over 65 % of the rainfall in Israel is obtained during the winter months (DJF), only 35 % of lightning flashes occur in these months. October is the richest month, with 40 % of total annual flashes. This is attributed both to tropical intrusions, i.e., Red Sea Troughs (RST), which are characterized by intense static instability and convection, and to Cyprus Lows (CLs) arriving from the west. <br><br> Based on daily study of the spatial distribution of lightning, three patterns have been defined; "land", "maritime" and "hybrid". CLs cause high flash density over the Mediterranean Sea, whereas some of the RST days are typified by flashes over land. The pattern defined "hybrid" is a combination of the other 2 patterns. On CL days, only the maritime pattern was noted, whereas in RST days all 3 patterns were found, including the maritime pattern. It is suggested that atmospheric processes associated with RST produce the land pattern. Hence, the occurrence of a maritime pattern in days identified as RST reflects an "apparent RST". The hybrid pattern was associated with an RST located east of Israel. This synoptic type produced the typical flash maximum over the land, but the upper-level trough together with the onshore winds it induced over the eastern coast of the Mediterranean resulted in lightning activity over the sea as well, similar to that of CLs. <br><br> It is suggested that the spatial distribution patterns of lightning may better identify the synoptic system responsible, a CL, an "active RST" or an "apparent RST". The electrical activity thus serves as a "fingerprint" for the synoptic situation responsible for its generation

A statistical method for revealing form-function relations in biological networks

Over the past decade, a number of researchers in systems biology have sought to relate the function of biological systems to their network-level descriptions -- lists of the most important players and the pairwise interactions between them. Both for large networks (in which statistical analysis is often framed in terms of the abundance of repeated small subgraphs) and for small networks which can be analyzed in greater detail (or even synthesized in vivo and subjected to experiment), revealing the relationship between the topology of small subgraphs and their biological function has been a central goal. We here seek to pose this revelation as a statistical task, illustrated using a particular setup which has been constructed experimentally and for which parameterized models of transcriptional regulation have been studied extensively. The question "how does function follow form" is here mathematized by identifying which topological attributes correlate with the diverse possible information-processing tasks which a transcriptional regulatory network can realize. The resulting method reveals one form-function relationship which had earlier been predicted based on analytic results, and reveals a second for which we can provide an analytic interpretation. Resulting source code is distributed via http://formfunction.sourceforge.net.Comment: To appear in Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA. 17 pages, 9 figures, 2 table

Coupled climate model simulations of Mediterranean winter cyclones and large-scale flow patterns

The study aims to evaluate the ability of global, coupled climate models to reproduce the synoptic regime of the Mediterranean Basin. The output of simulations of the 9 models included in the IPCC CMIP3 effort is compared to the NCEP-NCAR reanalyzed data for the period 1961–1990. The study examined the spatial distribution of cyclone occurrence, the mean Mediterranean upper- and lower-level troughs, the inter-annual variation and trend in the occurrence of the Mediterranean cyclones, and the main large-scale circulation patterns, represented by rotated EOFs of 500 hPa and sea level pressure. The models reproduce successfully the two maxima in cyclone density in the Mediterranean and their locations, the location of the average upper- and lower-level troughs, the relative inter-annual variation in cyclone occurrences and the structure of the four leading large scale EOFs. The main discrepancy is the models' underestimation of the cyclone density in the Mediterranean, especially in its western part. The models' skill in reproducing the cyclone distribution is found correlated with their spatial resolution, especially in the vertical. The current improvement in model spatial resolution suggests that their ability to reproduce the Mediterranean cyclones would be improved as well

Classification of Dust Days by Satellite Remotely Sensed Aerosol Products

Considerable progress in satellite remote sensing (SRS) of dust particles has been seen in the last decade. From an environmental health perspective, such an event detection, after linking it to ground particulate matter (PM) concentrations, can proxy acute exposure to respirable particles of certain properties (i.e. size, composition, and toxicity). Being affected considerably by atmospheric dust, previous studies in the Eastern Mediterranean, and in Israel in particular, have focused on mechanistic and synoptic prediction, classification, and characterization of dust events. In particular, a scheme for identifying dust days (DD) in Israel based on ground PM10 (particulate matter of size smaller than 10 nm) measurements has been suggested, which has been validated by compositional analysis. This scheme requires information regarding ground PM10 levels, which is naturally limited in places with sparse ground-monitoring coverage. In such cases, SRS may be an efficient and cost-effective alternative to ground measurements. This work demonstrates a new model for identifying DD and non-DD (NDD) over Israel based on an integration of aerosol products from different satellite platforms (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI)). Analysis of ground-monitoring data from 2007 to 2008 in southern Israel revealed 67 DD, with more than 88 percent occurring during winter and spring. A Classification and Regression Tree (CART) model that was applied to a database containing ground monitoring (the dependent variable) and SRS aerosol product (the independent variables) records revealed an optimal set of binary variables for the identification of DD. These variables are combinations of the following primary variables: the calendar month, ground-level relative humidity (RH), the aerosol optical depth (AOD) from MODIS, and the aerosol absorbing index (AAI) from OMI. A logistic regression that uses these variables, coded as binary variables, demonstrated 93.2 percent correct classifications of DD and NDD. Evaluation of the combined CART-logistic regression scheme in an adjacent geographical region (Gush Dan) demonstrated good results. Using SRS aerosol products for DD and NDD, identification may enable us to distinguish between health, ecological, and environmental effects that result from exposure to these distinct particle populations

The mechanisms of spatial and temporal earthquake clustering

The number of earthquakes as a function of magnitude decays as a power law. This trend is usually justified using spring-block models, where slips with the appropriate global statistics have been numerically observed. However, prominent spatial and temporal clustering features of earthquakes are not reproduced by this kind of modeling. We show that when a spring-block model is complemented with a mechanism allowing for structural relaxation, realistic earthquake patterns are obtained. The proposed model does not need to include a phenomenological velocity weakening friction law, as traditional spring-block models do, since this behavior is effectively induced by the relaxational mechanism as well. In this way, the model provides also a simple microscopic basis for the widely used phenomenological rate-and-state equations of rock friction.Comment: 7 pages, 10 figures, comments welcom

Dynamic Fluctuation Phenomena in Double Membrane Films

Dynamics of double membrane films is investigated in the long-wavelength limit including the overdamped squeezing mode. We demonstrate that thermal fluctuations essentially modify the character of the mode due to its nonlinear coupling to the transversal shear hydrodynamic mode. The corresponding Green function acquires as a function of the frequency a cut along the imaginary semi-axis. Fluctuations lead to increasing the attenuation of the squeezing mode it becomes larger than the `bare' value.Comment: 7 pages, Revte

Fluid-membrane tethers: minimal surfaces and elastic boundary layers

Thin cylindrical tethers are common lipid bilayer membrane structures, arising in situations ranging from micromanipulation experiments on artificial vesicles to the dynamic structure of the Golgi apparatus. We study the shape and formation of a tether in terms of the classical soap-film problem, which is applied to the case of a membrane disk under tension subject to a point force. A tether forms from the elastic boundary layer near the point of application of the force, for sufficiently large displacement. Analytic results for various aspects of the membrane shape are given.Comment: 12 page

Tropical tele-connections to the Mediterranean climate and weather

Some strong natural fluctuations of climate in the Eastern Mediterranean (EM) region are shown to be connected to the major tropical systems. Potential relations between EM rainfall extremes to tropical systems, e.g. El Niño, Indian Monsoon and hurricanes, are demonstrated. For a specific event, high resolution modelling of the severe flood on 3-5 December 2001 in Israel suggests a relation to hurricane Olga. In order to understand the factors governing the EM climate variability in the summer season, the relationship between extreme summer temperatures and the Indian Monsoon was examined. Other tropical factors like the Red-Sea Trough system and the Saharan dust are also likely to contribute to the EM climate variability

Causality - Complexity - Consistency: Can Space-Time Be Based on Logic and Computation?

The difficulty of explaining non-local correlations in a fixed causal structure sheds new light on the old debate on whether space and time are to be seen as fundamental. Refraining from assuming space-time as given a priori has a number of consequences. First, the usual definitions of randomness depend on a causal structure and turn meaningless. So motivated, we propose an intrinsic, physically motivated measure for the randomness of a string of bits: its length minus its normalized work value, a quantity we closely relate to its Kolmogorov complexity (the length of the shortest program making a universal Turing machine output this string). We test this alternative concept of randomness for the example of non-local correlations, and we end up with a reasoning that leads to similar conclusions as in, but is conceptually more direct than, the probabilistic view since only the outcomes of measurements that can actually all be carried out together are put into relation to each other. In the same context-free spirit, we connect the logical reversibility of an evolution to the second law of thermodynamics and the arrow of time. Refining this, we end up with a speculation on the emergence of a space-time structure on bit strings in terms of data-compressibility relations. Finally, we show that logical consistency, by which we replace the abandoned causality, it strictly weaker a constraint than the latter in the multi-party case.Comment: 17 pages, 16 figures, small correction