398 research outputs found

    Pacific variability reconciles observed and modelled global mean temperature increase since 1950

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    Global mean temperature change simulated by climate models deviates from the observed temperature increase during decadal-scale periods in the past. In particular, warming during the ‘global warming hiatus’ in the early twenty-first century appears overestimated in CMIP5 and CMIP6 multi-model means. We examine the role of equatorial Pacific variability in these divergences since 1950 by comparing 18 studies that quantify the Pacific contribution to the ‘hiatus’ and earlier periods and by investigating the reasons for differing results. During the ‘global warming hiatus’ from 1992 to 2012, the estimated contributions differ by a factor of five, with multiple linear regression approaches generally indicating a smaller contribution of Pacific variability to global temperature than climate model experiments where the simulated tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) or wind stress anomalies are nudged towards observations. These so-called pacemaker experiments suggest that the ‘hiatus’ is fully explained and possibly over-explained by Pacific variability. Most of the spread across the studies can be attributed to two factors: neglecting the forced signal in tropical Pacific SST, which is often the case in multiple regression studies but not in pacemaker experiments, underestimates the Pacific contribution to global temperature change by a factor of two during the ‘hiatus’; the sensitivity with which the global temperature responds to Pacific variability varies by a factor of two between models on a decadal time scale, questioning the robustness of single model pacemaker experiments. Once we have accounted for these factors, the CMIP5 mean warming adjusted for Pacific variability reproduces the observed annual global mean temperature closely, with a correlation coefficient of 0.985 from 1950 to 2018. The CMIP6 ensemble performs less favourably but improves if the models with the highest transient climate response are omitted from the ensemble mean

    Validity and responsiveness of the French version of the Örebro musculoskeletal pain screening questionnaire in chronic low back pain

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    The assessment of a broad range of biopsychosocial aspects is important in the rehabilitation of patients with chronic low back pain (CLBP) for the prediction of outcome as well as for evaluation. The objective of this study was to test the responsiveness, construct validity and predictive value of the A-rebro Musculoskeletal Pain Screening Questionnaire (OMPSQ) compared to other instruments widely used to assess biopsychosocial aspects in patients with CLBP. 111 patients with CLBP admitted to an inpatient rehabilitation completed a set of questionnaires on biopsychosocial aspects at baseline and at discharge. Ninety-eight patients responded at three months for an assessment of the return to work status. Responsiveness of the OMPSQ, the ability to detect change in the construct of interest, was investigated by a set of hypotheses on correlations with widely used questionnaires. We tested the hypothesis that the changes in the OMPSQ would vary along with the responses in the Patient's Global Impression of Change. Prediction of disability at discharge, work status at three months and time to return to work was evaluated with linear, logistic and cox regression models. The OMPSQ showed good predictive values for disability and return to work and construct validity of the instrument was corroborated. Seventy-nine percent of our hypotheses for responsiveness could be confirmed, with the OMPSQ showing the second highest change during the rehabilitation. The OMPSQ can also be applied in patients with CLBP, but for the assessment of change in psychosocial variables one should add specific questionnaires

    Silicon isotopes in an EMIC's ocean: Sensitivity to runoff, iron supply, and climate

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    The isotopic composition of Si in biogenic silica (BSi), such as opal buried in the oceans' sediments, has changed over time. Paleorecords suggest that the isotopic composition, described in terms of δ30Si, was generally much lower during glacial times than today. There is consensus that this variability is attributable to differing environmental conditions at the respective time of BSi production and sedimentation. The detailed links between environmental conditions and the isotopic composition of BSi in the sediments remain, however, poorly constrained. In this study, we explore the effects of a suite of offset boundary conditions during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) on the isotopic composition of BSi archived in sediments in an Earth System Model of intermediate complexity (EMIC). Our model results suggest that a change in the isotopic composition of Si supply to the glacial ocean is sufficient to explain the observed overall low(er) glacial δ30Si in BSi. All other processes explored trigger model responses of either wrong sign or magnitude or are inconsistent with a recent estimate of bottom water oxygenation in the Atlantic Sector of the Southern Ocean. Caveats, mainly associated with generic uncertainties in today's pelagic biogeochemical modules, remain.publishedVersio
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