Real-time prediction with U.K. monetary aggregates in the presence of model uncertainty

A popular account for the demise of the U.K.’s monetary targeting regime in the 1980s blames the fluctuating predictive relationships between broad money and inflation and real output growth. Yet ex post policy analysis based on heavily revised data suggests no fluctuations in the predictive content of money. In this paper, we investigate the predictive relationships for inflation and output growth using both real-time and heavily revised data. We consider a large set of recursively estimated vector autoregressive (VAR) and vector error correction models (VECM). These models differ in terms of lag length and the number of cointegrating relationships. We use Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to demonstrate that real-time monetary policymakers faced considerable model uncertainty. The in-sample predictive content of money fluctuated during the 1980s as a result of data revisions in the presence of model uncertainty. This feature is only apparent with real-time data as heavily revised data obscure these fluctuations. Out-of-sample predictive evaluations rarely suggest that money matters for either inflation or real output. We conclude that both data revisions and model uncertainty contributed to the demise of the U.K.’s monetary targeting regime

Dangerous liaisons: youth sport, citizenship and intergenerational mistrust

This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in International Journal of Sport Policy and Politics on 24/3/2014, available online: DOI 10.1080/19406940.2014.896390This paper reflects on and offers a critical analysis of the relationship between youth sport and citizenship development, in practice and in the UK policy context of sports coaching and physical education. While deploying data and insights from a recently completed research project in England, which identified substantial tensions in intergenerational relationships in sport and coaching, the argument and analysis also invokes wider international concerns and more generally applicable implications for policy and practice. Drawing heuristically upon the philosophy of Dewey (2007 [1916]), it is recognised that the concept of citizenship as a form of social practice should seek to encourage the development of complementary traits and dispositions in young people. To develop socially and educationally thus entails engagement in meaningful social and cultural activity, of which one potentially significant component is participation in youth sport, both within and outside formal education. However, it is argued that any confident assumption that sporting and coaching contexts will necessarily foster positive traits and dispositions in young people should be considered dubious and misplaced. Deploying a Lacanian (1981) perspective to interpret our data, we contend that ‘liaisons’ and interactions between coaches and young people are often treated suspiciously, and regarded as potentially ‘dangerous’

Power relationships and authentic organisational learning : daring to break the silence on meaningful dialogue in policing organisations

The 21st century presents great opportunities and threats for business: national and global markets are demanding high performance, innovation, creativity, and flexibility. Public sector organisations are continually asked to do more with less, with equal if not greater efficiency and creativity demands as the private sector. Organisational learning is a concept touted as an important and necessary strategy for organisations to keep pace with the rapid changing global environment that now plays host to opportunities as well as great economic and social volatility. However the reality for many is that they become proficient at the kind of organisational learning that reinforces the status quo (Morgan, 2006). This thesis aims to make an original contribution to the organisational learning literature by exploring power relationships and the degree to which individual and/or groups have the capacity or power to question the existing order of things. More particularly, it examines how and why power relationships may facilitate or inhibit ‘authentic organisational learning’. In doing so, this research explores a conceptual model of power relationships drawing on a traditional organisational leadership framework originating with Burns (1978) – ‘transactional’ and ‘transformational’ – as well as incorporating a critical perspective, drawing on the work of Freire (1970) with the notion of a ‘revolutionary’ power relationship. These three power relationships are explored as they operate to varying degrees across the four dimensions of power drawn individually from Dahl through to Lukes and Foucault. Notions such as ‘meaningful dialogue’ and ‘liberated learning space’ are introduced as a means to explain the capacity or ‘power to’ question the existing order of things: including the traditional dominant attitudes, beliefs, values and norms in organisations. Despite the perceived importance of organisational learning as a strategy for organisations in the 21st century, and the significant growth in the literature since the early 1990s, the notion of power continues to be all but silent in the organisational learning literature. Positioned in the recent emancipatory perspective of organisational learning, underpinned by Critical Theory, this thesis contributes to breaking this silence by exploring beyond the possible vested interests that we, as managers, may have to maintain the existing order of things in organisations. The emancipatory perspective encourages me to distinguish between organisational learning that is more ‘compliant’ to the learning agenda of managers – whether exploiting existing learning or exploring new learning both for corporate benefit – and more ‘authentic organisational learning’ driven by employees. This original contribution has particular significance for policing organisations. The ability of individuals to question the existing order of things in such organisations is of interest due to a perceived inability to bring about meaningful cultural reform. This research argues that reform failures may be due to a managerial learning agenda being deployed, which may result in compliance rather than more ‘authentic’ learning. Hence, this thesis examines the conceptual model primarily in respect to two case studies of policing organisations: one Australian and the other in another part of the Oceania region

“It’s hard to tell”. The challenges of scoring patients on standardised outcome measures by multidisciplinary teams: a case study of Neurorehabilitation

Background Interest is increasing in the application of standardised outcome measures in clinical practice. Measures designed for use in research may not be sufficiently precise to be used in monitoring individual patients. However, little is known about how clinicians and in particular, multidisciplinary teams, score patients using these measures. This paper explores the challenges faced by multidisciplinary teams in allocating scores on standardised outcome measures in clinical practice. Methods Qualitative case study of an inpatient neurorehabilitation team who routinely collected standardised outcome measures on their patients. Data were collected using non participant observation, fieldnotes and tape recordings of 16 multidisciplinary team meetings during which the measures were recited and scored. Eleven clinicians from a range of different professions were also interviewed. Data were analysed used grounded theory techniques. Results We identified a number of instances where scoring the patient was 'problematic'. In 'problematic' scoring, the scores were uncertain and subject to revision and adjustment. They sometimes required negotiation to agree on a shared understanding of concepts to be measured and the guidelines for scoring. Several factors gave rise to this problematic scoring. Team members' knowledge about patients' problems changed over time so that initial scores had to be revised or dismissed, creating an impression of deterioration when none had occurred. Patients had complex problems which could not easily be distinguished from each other and patients themselves varied in their ability to perform tasks over time and across different settings. Team members from different professions worked with patients in different ways and had different perspectives on patients' problems. This was particularly an issue in the scoring of concepts such as anxiety, depression, orientation, social integration and cognitive problems. Conclusion From a psychometric perspective these problems would raise questions about the validity, reliability and responsiveness of the scores. However, from a clinical perspective, such characteristics are an inherent part of clinical judgement and reasoning. It is important to highlight the challenges faced by multidisciplinary teams in scoring patients on standardised outcome measures but it would be unwarranted to conclude that such challenges imply that these measures should not be used in clinical practice for decision making about individual patients. However, our findings do raise some concerns about the use of such measures for performance management

The influence of the atmospheric boundary layer on nocturnal layers of noctuids and other moths migrating over southern Britain

Insects migrating at high altitude over southern Britain have been continuously monitored by automatically-operating, vertical-looking radars over a period of several years. During some occasions in the summer months, the migrants were observed to form well-defined layer concentrations, typically at heights of 200-400 m, in the stable night-time atmosphere. Under these conditions, insects are likely to have control over their vertical movements and are selecting flight heights which are favourable for long-range migration. We therefore investigated the factors influencing the formation of these insect layers by comparing radar measurements of the vertical distribution of insect density with meteorological profiles generated by the UK Met. Office’s Unified Model (UM). Radar-derived measurements of mass and displacement speed, along with data from Rothamsted Insect Survey light traps provided information on the identity of the migrants. We present here three case studies where noctuid and pyralid moths contributed substantially to the observed layers. The major meteorological factors influencing the layer concentrations appeared to be: (a) the altitude of the warmest air, (b) heights corresponding to temperature preferences or thresholds for sustained migration and (c), on nights when air temperatures are relatively high, wind-speed maxima associated with the nocturnal jet. Back-trajectories indicated that layer duration may have been determined by the distance to the coast. Overall, the unique combination of meteorological data from the UM and insect data from entomological radar described here show considerable promise for systematic studies of high-altitude insect layering

Evidence of the Generation of Isosaccharinic Acids and Their Subsequent Degradation by Local Microbial Consortia within Hyper-Alkaline Contaminated Soils, with Relevance to Intermediate Level Radioactive Waste Disposal

The contamination of surface environments with hydroxide rich wastes leads to the formation of high pH (>11.0) soil profiles. One such site is a legacy lime works at Harpur Hill, Derbyshire where soil profile indicated in-situ pH values up to pH 12. Soil and porewater profiles around the site indicated clear evidence of the presence of the α and β stereoisomers of isosaccharinic acid (ISA) resulting from the anoxic, alkaline degradation of cellulosic material. ISAs are of particular interest with regards to the disposal of cellulosic materials contained within the intermediate level waste (ILW) inventory of the United Kingdom, where they may influence radionuclide mobility via complexation events occurring within a geological disposal facility (GDF) concept. The mixing of uncontaminated soils with the alkaline leachate of the site resulted in ISA generation, where the rate of generation in-situ is likely to be dependent upon the prevailing temperature of the soil. Microbial consortia present in the uncontaminated soil were capable of surviving conditions imposed by the alkaline leachate and demonstrated the ability to utilise ISAs as a carbon source. Leachate-contaminated soil was sub-cultured in a cellulose degradation product driven microcosm operating at pH 11, the consortia present were capable of the degradation of ISAs and the generation of methane from the resultant H2/CO2 produced from fermentation processes. Following microbial community analysis, fermentation processes appear to be predominated by Clostridia from the genus Alkaliphilus sp, with methanogenesis being attributed to Methanobacterium and Methanomassiliicoccus sp. The study is the first to identify the generation of ISA within an anthropogenic environment and advocates the notion that microbial activity within an ILW-GDF is likely to influence the impact of ISAs upon radionuclide migration

Scintillometry in urban and complex environments: a review

Knowledge of turbulent exchange in complex environments is relevant to a wide range of hydro-meteorological applications. Observations are required to improve understanding and inform model parameterisations but the very nature of complex environments presents challenges for measurements. Scintillometry offers several advantages as a technique for providing spatially-integrated turbulence data (structure parameters and fluxes), particularly in areas that would be impracticable to monitor using eddy covariance, such as across a valley, above a city or over heterogeneous landscapes. Despite much of scintillometry theory assuming flat, homogeneous surfaces and ideal conditions, over the last 20 years scintillometers have been deployed in increasingly complex locations, including urban and mountainous areas. This review draws together fundamental and applied research in complex environments, to assess what has been learnt, summarise the state-of-the-art and identify key areas for future research. Particular attention is given to evidence, or relative lack thereof, of the impact of complex environments on scintillometer data. Practical and theoretical considerations to account for the effects of complexity are discussed, with the aim of developing measurement capability towards more reliable and accurate observations in future. The usefulness of structure parameter measurements (in addition to fluxes, which must be derived using similarity theory) should not be overlooked, particularly when comparing or combining scintillometry with other measurement techniques and model simulations

The cultural grammar of governance: The UK Code of Corporate Governance, reflexivity, and the limits of 'soft' regulation

We identify limits of ‘reflexive governance’ by examining the UK Code of Corporate Governance that is celebrated for its ‘reflexivity’. By placing the historical genesis of the Code within its politico-economic context, it is shown how its scope and penetration is impeded by a shallow, ‘single loop’ of reflexivity. Legitimized by agency theory, the Code is infused by a ‘cultural grammar’ that perpetuates relations of shareholder primacy as it restricts accountability to narrow forms of information disclosure directed exclusively at shareholders. Engagement of a deeper, ‘double loop’ reflexivity allows account to be taken of the historical conditions and theoretical conceptions that shape practices and outcomes of corporate governance. Only then is it possible to disclose, challenge and reform narrow conceptions, boundaries and workings of ‘reflexive governance’

Apple pollination: demand depends on variety and supply depends on pollinator identity

Insect pollination underpins apple production but the extent to which different pollinator guilds supply this service, particularly across different apple varieties, is unknown. Such information is essential if appropriate orchard management practices are to be targeted and proportional to the potential benefits pollinator species may provide. Here we use a novel combination of pollinator effectiveness assays (floral visit effectiveness), orchard field surveys (flower visitation rate) and pollinator dependence manipulations (pollinator exclusion experiments) to quantify the supply of pollination services provided by four different pollinator guilds to the production of four commercial varieties of apple. We show that not all pollinators are equally effective at pollinating apples, with hoverflies being less effective than solitary bees and bumblebees, and the relative abundance of different pollinator guilds visiting apple flowers of different varieties varies significantly. Based on this, the taxa specific economic benefits to UK apple production have been established. The contribution of insect pollinators to the economic output in all varieties was estimated to be £92.1M across the UK, with contributions varying widely across taxa: solitary bees (£51.4M), honeybees (£21.4M), bumblebees (£18.6M) and hoverflies (£0.7M). This research highlights the differences in the economic benefits of four insect pollinator guilds to four major apple varieties in the UK. This information is essential to underpin appropriate investment in pollination services management and provides a model that can be used in other entomolophilous crops to improve our understanding of crop pollination ecology