Properties of Foreshocks and Aftershocks of the Non-Conservative SOC Olami-Feder-Christensen Model: Triggered or Critical Earthquakes?

Following Hergarten and Neugebauer [2002] who discovered aftershock and foreshock sequences in the Olami-Feder-Christensen (OFC) discrete block-spring earthquake model, we investigate to what degree the simple toppling mechanism of this model is sufficient to account for the properties of earthquake clustering in time and space. Our main finding is that synthetic catalogs generated by the OFC model share practically all properties of real seismicity at a qualitative level, with however significant quantitative differences. We find that OFC catalogs can be in large part described by the concept of triggered seismicity but the properties of foreshocks depend on the mainshock magnitude, in qualitative agreement with the critical earthquake model and in disagreement with simple models of triggered seismicity such as the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model [Ogata, 1988]. Many other features of OFC catalogs can be reproduced with the ETAS model with a weaker clustering than real seismicity, i.e. for a very small average number of triggered earthquakes of first generation per mother-earthquake.Comment: revtex, 19 pages, 8 eps figure

The mechanisms of spatial and temporal earthquake clustering

The number of earthquakes as a function of magnitude decays as a power law. This trend is usually justified using spring-block models, where slips with the appropriate global statistics have been numerically observed. However, prominent spatial and temporal clustering features of earthquakes are not reproduced by this kind of modeling. We show that when a spring-block model is complemented with a mechanism allowing for structural relaxation, realistic earthquake patterns are obtained. The proposed model does not need to include a phenomenological velocity weakening friction law, as traditional spring-block models do, since this behavior is effectively induced by the relaxational mechanism as well. In this way, the model provides also a simple microscopic basis for the widely used phenomenological rate-and-state equations of rock friction.Comment: 7 pages, 10 figures, comments welcom

MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) Version 2: Model Description and Baseline Evaluation

Abstract in HTML and technical report in PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/).The MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) is designed for analyzing the global environmental changes that may result from anthropogenic causes, quantifying the uncertainties associated with the projected changes, and assessing the costs and environmental effectiveness of proposed policies to mitigate climate risk. This report documents Version 2 of the IGSM, which like the previous version, includes an economic model for analysis of greenhouse gas and aerosol precursor emissions and mitigation proposals, a coupled atmosphere-ocean-land surface model with interactive chemistry, and models of natural ecosystems. In this global framework the outputs of the combined anthropogenic and natural emissions models provide the driving forces for the coupled atmospheric chemistry and climate models. Climate model outputs then drive a terrestrial model predicting water and energy budgets, CO2, CH4, and N2O fluxes, and soil composition, which feed back to the coupled climate/chemistry model. The first version of the integrated framework (which we will term IGSM1) is described in Prinn et al. (1999) and in publications and Joint Program Reports and Technical Notes provided on the Program’s website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/). Subsequently, upgrades of component model capabilities have been achieved, allowing more comprehensive and realistic studies of global change. Highlights of these improvements include: a substantially improved economics model, needed to provide emissions projections and to assess an increasingly complex policy environment; a new global terrestrial model comprised of state-of-the-art biogeophysical, ecological and natural biogeochemical flux components, which provides an improved capacity to study consequences of hydrologic and ecologic change; the addition of a three-dimensional ocean representation, replacing the previous two-dimensional model, which allows examination of the global thermohaline circulation and its associated climate change impacts; the addition of an explicit oceanic carbon cycle including the impact of the biological pump; the addition of a new urban air pollution model enabling better treatments of human health and climate impacts; and the addition of greater flexibility for study of terrestrial ecosystem and urban pollution effects. This report documents the essential features of the new IGSM structure.This research was supported by the U.S Department of Energy, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, U.S. National Science Foundation, U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, U.S. National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration; and the Industry and Foundation Sponsors of the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change: Alstom Power (France), American Electric Power (USA), BP p.l.c. (UK/USA), Chevron Corporation (USA), CONCAWE (Belgium), DaimlerChrysler AG (Germany), Duke Energy (USA), J-Power (Japan), Electric Power Research Institute (USA), Electricité de France, ExxonMobil Corporation (USA), Ford Motor Company (USA), General Motors (USA), Murphy Oil Corporation (USA), Oglethorpe Power Corporation (USA), RWE Power (Germany), Shell Petroleum (Netherlands/UK), Southern Company (USA), Statoil ASA (Norway), Tennessee Valley Authority (USA), Tokyo Electric Power Company (Japan), Total (France), G. Unger Vetlesen Foundation (USA)

Limitations of rupture forecasting exposed by instantaneously triggered earthquake doublet

Earthquake hazard assessments and rupture forecasts are based on the potential length of seismic rupture and whether or not slip is arrested at fault segment boundaries. Such forecasts do not generally consider that one earthquake can trigger a second large event, near-instantaneously, at distances greater than a few kilometers. Here we present a geodetic and seismological analysis of a magnitude 7.1 intra-continental earthquake that occurred in Pakistan in 1997. We find that the earthquake, rather than a single event as hitherto assumed, was in fact an earthquake doublet: initial rupture on a shallow, blind 2 reverse fault was followed just 19 seconds later by a second rupture on a separate reverse fault 50 km away. Slip on the second fault increased the total seismic moment by half, and doubled both the combined event duration and the area of maximum ground shaking. We infer that static Coulomb stresses at the initiation location of the second earthquake were probably reduced as a result of the first. Instead, we suggest that a dynamic triggering mechanism is likely, although the responsible seismic wave phase is unclear. Our results expose a flaw in earthquake rupture forecasts that disregard cascading, multiple-fault ruptures of this type

Methane fluxes between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere at northern high latitudes during the past century : a retrospective analysis with a process-based biogeochemistry model

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2004. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 18 (2004): GB3010, doi:10.1029/2004GB002239.We develop and use a new version of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) to study how rates of methane (CH4) emissions and consumption in high-latitude soils of the Northern Hemisphere have changed over the past century in response to observed changes in the region's climate. We estimate that the net emissions of CH4 (emissions minus consumption) from these soils have increased by an average 0.08 Tg CH4 yr−1 during the twentieth century. Our estimate of the annual net emission rate at the end of the century for the region is 51 Tg CH4 yr−1. Russia, Canada, and Alaska are the major CH4 regional sources to the atmosphere, responsible for 64%, 11%, and 7% of these net emissions, respectively. Our simulations indicate that large interannual variability in net CH4 emissions occurred over the last century. Our analyses of the responses of net CH4 emissions to the past climate change suggest that future global warming will increase net CH4 emissions from the Pan-Arctic region. The higher net CH4 emissions may increase atmospheric CH4 concentrations to provide a major positive feedback to the climate system.This study was supported by a NSF biocomplexity grant (ATM-0120468), the NASA Land Cover and Land Use Change Program (NAG5-6257), and by funding from MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, which is supported by a consortium of government, industry, and foundation sponsors

Future effects of ozone on carbon sequestration and climate change policy using a global biogeochemical model

Author Posting. © The Authors, 2004. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Springer for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Climatic Change 73 (2005): 345-373, doi:10.1007/s10584-005-6776-4.Exposure of plants to ozone inhibits photosynthesis and therefore reduces vegetation production and carbon sequestration. The reduced carbon storage would then require further reductions in fossil fuel emissions to meet a given CO2 concentration target, thereby increasing the cost of meeting the target. Simulations with the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) for the historical period (1860-1995) show the largest damages occur in the Southeast and Midwestern regions of the United States, eastern Europe, and eastern China. The largest reductions in carbon storage for the period 1950-1995, 41%, occur in eastern Europe. Scenarios for the 21st century developed with the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model (IGSM) lead to even greater negative effects on carbon storage in the future. In some regions, current land carbon sinks become carbon sources, and this change leads to carbon sequestration decreases of up to 0.4 Pg C yr-1 due to damage in some regional ozone hot spots. With a climate policy, failing to consider the effects of ozone damage on carbon sequestration would raise the global costs over the next century of stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of CO2 equivalents at 550 ppm by 6 to 21%. Because stabilization at 550 ppm will reduce emission of other gases that cause ozone, these additional benefits are estimated to be between 5 and 25% of the cost of the climate policy. Tropospheric ozone effects on terrestrial ecosystems thus produce a surprisingly large feedback in estimating climate policy costs that, heretofore, has not been included in cost estimates.This study was funded by the Biocomplexity Program of the U.S. National Science Foundation (ATM-0120468), the Methods and Models for Integrated Assessment Program of the U.S. National Science Foundation (DEB-9711626) and the Earth Observing System Program of the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NAG5-10135). The IGSM has been developed as part of the Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change with the support of a government-industry partnership including in addition to the above the US Department of Energy (901214-HAR; DE-FG02-94ER61937; DE-FG0293ER61713), the US Environmental Protection Agency (X-827703-01-0; XA-83042801-0), the National Aeronautics and Atmospheric Administration (NA16GP2290) and a group of corporate sponsors from the United States, Japan, United Kingdom, Germany, France, and Norway

``Agro-meteorological indices and climate model uncertainty over the UK''

Five stakeholder-relevant indices of agro-meteorological change were analysed for the UK, over past (1961--1990) and future (2061--2090) periods. Accumulated Frosts, Dry Days, Growing Season Length, Plant Heat Stress and Start of Field Operations were calculated from the E-Obs (European Observational) and HadRM3 (Hadley Regional Climate Model) PPE (perturbed physics ensemble) data sets. Indices were compared directly and examined for current and future uncertainty. Biases are quantified in terms of ensemble member climate sensitivity and regional aggregation. Maps of spatial change then provide an appropriate metric for end-users both in terms of their requirements and statistical robustness. A future UK is described with fewer frosts, fewer years with a large number of frosts, an earlier start to field operations (e.g., tillage), fewer occurrences of sporadic rainfall, more instances of high temperatures (in both the mean and upper range), and a much longer growing season

Soil respiration in northern forests exposed to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide and ozone

The aspen free-air CO 2 and O 3 enrichment (FACTS II–FACE) study in Rhinelander, Wisconsin, USA, is designed to understand the mechanisms by which young northern deciduous forest ecosystems respond to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and elevated tropospheric ozone (O 3 ) in a replicated, factorial, field experiment. Soil respiration is the second largest flux of carbon (C) in these ecosystems, and the objective of this study was to understand how soil respiration responded to the experimental treatments as these fast-growing stands of pure aspen and birch + aspen approached maximum leaf area. Rates of soil respiration were typically lowest in the elevated O 3 treatment. Elevated CO 2 significantly stimulated soil respiration (8–26%) compared to the control treatment in both community types over all three growing seasons. In years 6–7 of the experiment, the greatest rates of soil respiration occurred in the interaction treatment (CO 2  + O 3 ), and rates of soil respiration were 15–25% greater in this treatment than in the elevated CO 2 treatment, depending on year and community type. Two of the treatments, elevated CO 2 and elevated CO 2  + O 3 , were fumigated with 13 C-depleted CO 2 , and in these two treatments we used standard isotope mixing models to understand the proportions of new and old C in soil respiration. During the peak of the growing season, C fixed since the initiation of the experiment in 1998 (new C) accounted for 60–80% of total soil respiration. The isotope measurements independently confirmed that more new C was respired from the interaction treatment compared to the elevated CO 2 treatment. A period of low soil moisture late in the 2003 growing season resulted in soil respiration with an isotopic signature 4–6‰ enriched in 13 C compared to sample dates when the percentage soil moisture was higher. In 2004, an extended period of low soil moisture during August and early September, punctuated by a significant rainfall event, resulted in soil respiration that was temporarily 4–6‰ more depleted in 13 C. Up to 50% of the Earth’s forests will see elevated concentrations of both CO 2 and O 3 in the coming decades and these interacting atmospheric trace gases stimulated soil respiration in this study.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/45867/1/442_2006_Article_381.pd