The intensification of thermal extremes in west Africa

International audienceThis study aims in filling the gap in understanding the relationship between trend and extreme in diurnal and nocturnal temperatures (Tx and Tn) over the Gulf of Guinea area and the Sahel. Time-evolution and trend of Tx and Tn anomalies, extreme temperatures and heat waves are examined using regional and station-based indices over the 1900–2012 and 1950–2012 periods respectively. In investigating extreme temperature anomalies and heat waves, a percentile method is used. At the regional and local scales, rising trends in Tx and Tn anomalies, which appear more pronounced over the past 60 years, are identified over the two regions. The trends are characterized by an intensification of: i) nocturnal/Tn warming over the second half of the 20th century; and ii) diurnal/Tx warming over the post-1980s. This is the same scheme with extreme warm days and warm nights. Finally annual number of diurnal and nocturnal heat waves has increase over the Gulf of Guinea coastal regions over the second half of the 20th century, and even more substantially over the post-1980s period. Although this trend in extreme warm days and nights is always overestimated in the simulations, from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), those models display rising trends whatever the scenario, which are likely to be more and more pronounced over the two regions in the next 50 years

In-situ fluorescence spectroscopy indicates total bacterial abundance and dissolved organic carbon

We explore in-situ fluorescence spectroscopy as an instantaneous indicator of total bacterial abundance and faecal contamination in drinking water. Eighty-four samples were collected outside of the recharge season from groundwater-derived water sources in Dakar, Senegal. Samples were analysed for tryptophan-like (TLF) and humic-like (HLF) fluorescence in-situ, total bacterial cells by flow cytometry, and potential indicators of faecal contamination such as thermotolerant coliforms (TTCs), nitrate, and in a subset of 22 samples, dissolved organic carbon (DOC). Significant single-predictor linear regression models demonstrated that total bacterial cells were the most effective predictor of TLF, followed by on-site sanitation density; TTCs were not a significant predictor. An optimum multiple-predictor model of TLF incorporated total bacterial cells, nitrate, nitrite, on-site sanitation density, and sulphate (r2 0.68). HLF was similarly related to the same parameters as TLF, with total bacterial cells being the best correlated (ρs 0.64). In the subset of 22 sources, DOC clustered with TLF, HLF, and total bacterial cells, and a linear regression model demonstrated HLF was the best predictor of DOC (r2 0.84). The intergranular nature of the aquifer, timing of the study, and/or non-uniqueness of the signal to TTCs can explain the significant associations between TLF/HLF and indicators of faecal contamination such as on-site sanitation density and nutrients but not TTCs. The bacterial population that relates to TLF/HLF is likely to be a subsurface community that develops in-situ based on the availability of organic matter originating from faecal sources. In-situ fluorescence spectroscopy instantly indicates a drinking water source is impacted by faecal contamination but it remains unclear how that relates specifically to microbial risk in this setting

The COVID-19 pandemic in francophone West Africa: from the first cases to responses in seven countries.

BACKGROUND: In early March 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic hit West Africa. In response, countries in the region quickly set up crisis management committees and implemented drastic measures to stem the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. The objective of this article is to analyse the epidemiological evolution of COVID-19 in seven Francophone West African countries (Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Guinea, Mali, Niger, Senegal) as well as the public health measures decided upon during the first 7 months of the pandemic. METHODS: Our method is based on quantitative and qualitative data from the pooling of information from a COVID-19 data platform and collected by a network of interdisciplinary collaborators present in the seven countries. Descriptive and spatial analyses of quantitative epidemiological data, as well as content analyses of qualitative data on public measures and management committees were performed. RESULTS: Attack rates (October 2020) for COVID-19 have ranged from 20 per 100,000 inhabitants (Benin) to more than 94 per 100,000 inhabitants (Senegal). All these countries reacted quickly to the crisis, in some cases before the first reported infection, and implemented public measures in a relatively homogeneous manner. None of the countries implemented country-wide lockdowns, but some implemented partial or local containment measures. At the end of June 2020, countries began to lift certain restrictive measures, sometimes under pressure from the general population or from certain economic sectors. CONCLUSION: Much research on COVID-19 remains to be conducted in West Africa to better understand the dynamics of the pandemic, and to further examine the state responses to ensure their appropriateness and adaptation to the national contexts.3. Good health and well-bein

Tryptophan-like and humic-like fluorophores are extracellular in groundwater: implications as real-time faecal indicators

Fluorescent natural organic matter at tryptophan-like (TLF) and humic-like fluorescence (HLF) peaks is associated with the presence and enumeration of faecal indicator bacteria in groundwater. We hypothesise, however, that it is predominantly extracellular material that fluoresces at these wavelengths, not bacterial cells. We quantified total (unfiltered) and extracellular (filtered at < 0.22 µm) TLF and HLF in 140 groundwater sources across a range of urban population densities in Kenya, Malawi, Senegal, and Uganda. Where changes in fluorescence occurred following filtration they were correlated with potential controlling variables. A significant reduction in TLF following filtration (ΔTLF) was observed across the entire dataset, although the majority of the signal remained and thus considered extracellular (median 96.9%). ΔTLF was only significant in more urbanised study areas where TLF was greatest. Beneath Dakar, Senegal, ΔTLF was significantly correlated to total bacterial cells (ρs 0.51). No significant change in HLF following filtration across all data indicates these fluorophores are extracellular. Our results suggest that TLF and HLF are more mobile than faecal indicator bacteria and larger pathogens in groundwater, as the predominantly extracellular fluorophores are less prone to straining. Consequently, TLF/HLF are more precautionary indicators of microbial risks than faecal indicator bacteria in groundwater-derived drinking water

Allelic diversity of MSP1 and MSP2 repeat loci correlate with levels of malaria endemicity in Senegal and Nigerian populations.

BACKGROUND: Characterizing the genetic diversity of malaria parasite populations in different endemic settings (from low to high) could be helpful in determining the effectiveness of malaria interventions. This study compared Plasmodium falciparum parasite population diversity from two sites with low (pre-elimination) and high transmission in Senegal and Nigeria, respectively. METHODS: Parasite genomic DNA was extracted from 187 dried blood spot collected from confirmed uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria infected patients in Senegal (94) and Nigeria (93). Allelic polymorphism at merozoite surface protein 1 (msp1) and merozoite surface protein- 2 (msp2) genes were assessed by nested PCR. RESULTS: The most frequent msp1 and msp2 allelic families are the K1 and IC3D7 allelotypes in both Senegal and Nigeria. Multiplicity of infection (MOI) of greater that 1 and thus complex infections was common in both study sites in Senegal (Thies:1.51/2.53; Kedougou:2.2/2.0 for msp1/2) than in Nigeria (Gbagada: 1.39/1.96; Oredo: 1.35/1.75]). The heterozygosity of msp1 gene was higher in P. falciparum isolates from Senegal (Thies: 0.62; Kedougou: 0.53) than isolates from Nigeria (Gbagada: 0.55; Oredo: 0.50). In Senegal, K1 alleles was associated with heavy than with moderate parasite density. Meanwhile, equal proportions of K1 were observed in both heavy and moderate infection types in Nigeria. The IC3D7 subtype allele of the msp2 family was the most frequent in heavily parasitaemic individuals from both countries than in the moderately infected participants. CONCLUSION: The unexpectedly low genetic diversity of infections high endemic Nigerian setting compared to the low endemic settings in Senegal is suggestive of possible epidemic outbreak in Nigeria

Ex vivo susceptibility and genotyping of Plasmodium falciparum isolates from Pikine, Senegal

Background: The monitoring of Plasmodium falciparum sensitivity to anti-malarial drugs is a necessity for effective case management of malaria. This species is characterized by a strong resistance to anti-malarial drugs. In Senegal, the first cases of chloroquine resistance were reported in the Dakar region in 1988 with nearly 7% population prevalence, reaching 47% by 1990. It is in this context that sulfadoxine–pyrimethamine temporarily replaced chloroquine as first line treatment in 2003, pending the introduction of artemisinin-based combination therapy in 2006. The purpose of this study is to assess the ex vivo sensitivity to different anti-malarial drugs of the P. falciparum population from Pikine. Methods: Fifty-four samples were collected from patients with non-complicated malaria and aged between 2 and 20 years in the Deggo health centre in Pikine in 2014. An assay in which parasites are stained with 4′, 6-di-amidino-2-phenylindole (DAPI), was used to study the ex vivo sensitivity of isolates to chloroquine, amodiaquine, piperaquine, pyrimethamine, and dihydroartemisinin. High resolution melting was used for genotyping of pfdhps, pfdhfr, pfmdr1, and pfcrt genes. Results: The mean IC50s of chloroquine, amodiaquine, piperaquine, dihydroartemisinin, and pyrimethamine were, respectively, 39.44, 54.02, 15.28, 2.23, and 64.70 nM. Resistance mutations in pfdhfr gene, in codon 437 of pfdhps gene, and an absence of mutation at position 540 of pfdhps were observed. Mutations in codons K76T of pfcrt and N86Y of pfmdr1 were observed at 51 and 11% population prevalence, respectively. A relationship was found between the K76T and N86Y mutations and ex vivo resistance to chloroquine. Conclusion: An increase in sensitivity of isolates to chloroquine was observed. A high sensitivity to dihydroartemisinin was observed; whereas, a decrease in sensitivity to pyrimethamine was observed in the parasite population from Pikine

A perspective on the next generation of Earth system model scenarios: towards representative emission pathways (REPs)

In every Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment cycle, a multitude of scenarios are assessed, with different scope and emphasis throughout the various Working Group reports and special reports, as well as their respective chapters. Within the reports, the ambition is to integrate knowledge on possible climate futures across the Working Groups and scientific research domains based on a small set of “framing pathways” such as the so-called representative concentration pathways (RCPs) in the Fifth IPCC Assessment Report (AR5) and the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios in the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). This perspective, initiated by discussions at the IPCC Bangkok workshop in April 2023 on the “Use of Scenarios in AR6 and Subsequent Assessments”, is intended to serve as one of the community contributions to highlight the needs for the next generation of framing pathways that is being advanced under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) umbrella, which will influence or even predicate the IPCC AR7 consideration of framing pathways. Here we suggest several policy research objectives that such a set of framing pathways should ideally fulfil, including mitigation needs for meeting the Paris Agreement objectives, the risks associated with carbon removal strategies, the consequences of delay in enacting that mitigation, guidance for adaptation needs, loss and damage, and for achieving mitigation in the wider context of societal development goals. Based on this context, we suggest that the next generation of climate scenarios for Earth system models should evolve towards representative emission pathways (REPs) and suggest key categories for such pathways. These framing pathways should address the most critical mitigation policy and adaptation plans that need to be implemented over the next 10 years. In our view, the most important categories are those relevant in the context of the Paris Agreement long-term goal, specifically an immediate action (low overshoot) 1.5 °C pathway and a delayed action (high overshoot) 1.5 °C pathway. Two other key categories are a pathway category approximately in line with current (as expressed by 2023) near- and long-term policy objectives, as well as a higher-emission category that is approximately in line with “current policies” (as expressed by 2023). We also argue for the scientific and policy relevance in exploring two “worlds that could have been”. One of these categories has high-emission trajectories well above what is implied by current policies and the other has very-low-emission trajectories which assume that global mitigation action in line with limiting warming to 1.5 °C without overshoot had begun in 2015. Finally, we note that the timely provision of new scientific information on pathways is critical to inform the development and implementation of climate policy. Under the Paris Agreement, for the second global stocktake, which will occur in 2028, and to inform subsequent development of nationally determined contributions (NDCs) up to 2040, scientific inputs are required by 2027. These needs should be carefully considered in the development timeline of community modelling activities, including those under CMIP7.</p