Calibration in a Data Sparse Environment: How Many Cases Did We Miss?

Reported case numbers in the COVID-19 pandemic are assumed in many countries to have underestimated the true prevalence of the disease. Deficits in reporting may have been particularly great in countries with limited testing capability and restrictive testing policies. Simultaneously, some models have been accused of over-reporting the scale of the pandemic. At a time when modeling consortia around the world are turning to the lessons learnt from pandemic modelling, we present an example of simulating testing as well as the spread of disease. In particular, we factor in the amount and nature of testing that was carried out in the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic (March - September 2020), calibrating our spatial Agent Based Model (ABM) model to the reported case numbers in Zimbabwe

Connecting with the viewer: affectivity and cathexis in textile artwork

This article explores how, following bereavement, textile artwork may be able to make a connection with the viewer and allow a progression of their work of mourning. It takes an interdisciplinary approach, drawing from the literature of psychoanalytical theory, affectivity, and textile thinking to understand the importance of cloth as artwork in the grieving process. The article draws on the practice-based textile research of the author which, together with responses to the artworks made, discusses the way viewers can make an emotional investment in textile artwork and considers the concept of exhibitionary affect to increase the emotional connection of the viewer to the work

Scale matters: Variations in spatial and temporal patterns of epidemic outbreaks in agent-based models

Agent-based modellers frequently make use of techniques to render simulated populations more computationally tractable on actionable timescales. Many generate a relatively small number of “representative” agents, each of which is “scaled up” to represent some larger number of individuals involved in the system being studied. The degree to which this “scaling” has implications for model forecasts is an underdeveloped field of study; in particular, there has been little known research on the spatial implications of such techniques. This work presents a case study of the impact of the simulated population size, using a model of the spread of COVID-19 among districts in Zimbabwe for the underlying system being studied. The impact of the relative scale of the population is explored in conjunction with the spatial setup, and crucial model parameters are varied to highlight where scaled down populations can be safely used and where modellers should be cautious. The results imply that in particular, different geographical dynamics of the spread of disease are associated with varying population sizes, with implications for researchers seeking to use scaled populations in their research. This article is an extension on work previously presented as part of the International Conference on Computational Science 2022 (Wise et al., 2022)[1]

Diagnostic challenges of fungal disease in Wales

Invasive and serious fungal diseases carry a high degree of morbidity and mortality. Despite the seriousness of these conditions, no national fungal disease registry exists. In this thesis, the incidence and prevalence of fungal disease in Wales was estimated through a literature review exploring the expected burden of the most common or most serious pathogens in atrisk populations. Local laboratory reporting was also utilised to retrospectively analyse Wales’s local incidence data. The discrepancy between the expected incidence of pneumocystosis and the high number of laboratory-confirmed cases prompted a more comprehensive review. Aside from HIV, in which mortality was low, there was no significant difference in mortality between the various aetiologies of immunosuppression responsible for contracting pneumocystosis. Microbiological investigation of fungal pathogens is difficult. Biomarker and culture techniques are applied to samples such as bronchoalveolar lavage which can be problematic to obtain. The SPutum Induction Trial For Improved Respiratory Evaluation (SPITFIRE) was designed and implemented to investigate the opportunity to use sputum induction as a novel method of obtaining deep respiratory samples in an unwell, immunocompromised haematology cohort. The data suggests this to be an acceptable procedure for both operator and patient and produces microbiologically similar results to deep respiratory samples obtained at bronchoscopy. There is evidence of concordance with bronchoscopy in diagnosing fungal disease. It is a challenge to correctly interpret the significance of a positive result. Exophiala dermatitidis is frequently isolated from patients with cystic fibrosis but its impact on lung function was unknown. Following a retrospective case-controlled review, it was demonstrated that E.dermatitidis isolation is associated with a more rapid lung function decline than in the same individuals pre-isolation and compared to control. A healthcare environment-focussed patient-patient transmission model was also postulated. This thesis highlights multiple diagnostic challenges in fungal disease and proposes Waleswide approaches to address them

Cloth & memory

This book was published to accompany an exhibition of the same name at Salts Mills, Saltaire, Yorkshire, UK, in summer 2012, conceived and directed by Lesley Millar MBE, Professor of Textile Culture at the University for the Creative Arts. The exhibition and accompanying publication includes work by the artists Beverley Ayling-Smith, Carol Quarini, and Bob White. All visited Salts Mills and Saltaire and have created their work as a response to the history of the place: the memory of cloth and the making of cloth that has seeped into the fabric of the building. This exhibition is the first of two; Cloth and Memory 2 taking place in 2013

Research students exhibition catalogue 2013

This exhibition catalogue showcases the work of current UCA research students at various stages of their research journey. The theme of the exhibition and the one day conference is time - place - space and through their practice the research students examine these concepts and realities

Research students exhibition catalogue 2011

The catalogue demonstrates the scope and vibrancy of current inquiries and pays tribute to the creative capacity and investment of UCA research students. It brings together contributions from students who are at different stages in their research ad/venture. Their explorations are connected by the centrality of contemporary material practices as focal point for the reconsideration of societal values, cultural symbols and rituals and their meaning, and the trans/formation of individual, collective and national identities The media and formats employed range from cloth, jewellery and ceramics to analogue film, the human voice and the representation of dress and fashionin virtual environments. Thematic interests span from explorations at the interface of art and medical science to an investigation of the role of art in contested spaces, or the role of metonymy in ‘how the arts think’ And whilst the projects are motivated by personal curiosity and passion, their outcomes transcend the boundaries of individual practice and offer new insights, under-standing and applications for the benefit of wider society. Prof. Kerstin Me

Painful sex (dyspareunia) in women: prevalence and associated factors in a British population probability survey.

ObjectiveTo estimate the prevalence of painful sex among women in Britain, and to explore associated sexual, relationship and health factors that should be considered in assessment.DesignMulti-stage, clustered and stratified population probability sample survey, using computer-assisted self-interview. Sample frame was the British Postcode Address File.SettingParticipants interviewed at home between 2010 and 2012.SampleA total of 15 162 adults aged 16-74 years (8869 women). Data reported from 6669 sexually active women.MethodsAge-adjusted logistic regressions to examine associations between painful sex and indicators of sexual, relational, mental and physical health.Main outcome measurePhysical pain as a result of sex for ≥3 months in the past year, plus measures of symptom severity.ResultsPainful sex was reported by 7.5% (95% CI 6.7-8.3) of sexually active women, of whom one-quarter experienced symptoms very often or always, for ≥6 months, and causing distress. Reporting painful sex was strongly associated with other sexual function problems, notably vaginal dryness (age adjusted odds ratio 7.9; 6.17-10.12), anxiety about sex (6.34; 4.76-8.46) and lacking enjoyment in sex (6.12; 4.81-7.79). It was associated with sexual relationship factors [such as not sharing same level of interest in sex (2.56; 1.97-3.33)], as well as with adverse experiences such as non-volitional sex (2.17; 1.68-2.80). Associations were also found with measures of psychological and physical health, including depressive symptoms (1.68; 1.28-2.21).ConclusionPainful sex is reported by a sizeable minority of women in Britain. Health professionals should be supported to undertake holistic assessment and treatment which takes account of the sexual, relationship and health context of symptoms.Tweetable abstractPainful sex-reported by 7.5% of women in Britain-is linked to poorer sexual, physical, relational and mental health

Cloth & memory {2}

This book was published to accompany an exhibition of the same name at Salts Mills, Saltaire, Yorkshire, UK, from 18 August to 3 November 2013, curated by Lesley Millar MBE, Professor of Textile Culture at the University for the Creative Arts

Lithium in the aragonite skeletons of massive Porites corals: A new tool to reconstruct tropical sea surface temperatures

Previous studies have demonstrated the potential for the Li content of coral aragonite to record information about environmental conditions, but no detailed study of tropical corals exists. Here we present the Li and Mg to Ca ratios at a bimonthly to monthly resolution over 25 years in two modern Porites corals, the genus most often used for paleoclimate reconstructions in the tropical Indo-Pacific. A strong relationship exists between coral Li/Ca and locally measured SST, indicating that coral Li/Ca can be used to reconstruct tropical SST variations. However, Li/Ca ratios of the skeleton deposited during 1979-1980 do not track local SST well and are anomalously high in places. The Mg/Ca ratios of this interval are also anomalously high, and we suggest Li/Ca can be used to reconstruct tropical SST only when Mg/Ca data are used to carefully screen for relatively rare biological effects. Mg/Li or Li/Mg ratios provide little advantage over Li/Ca ratios, except that the slope of the Li/Mg temperature relationship is more similar between the two corals. The Mg/Li temperature relationship for the coral that experienced a large temperature range is similar to that found for cold water corals and aragonitic benthic foraminifera in previous studies. The comparison with data from other biogenic aragonites suggests the relationship between Li/Mg and water temperature can be described by a single exponential relationship. Despite this hint at an overarching control, it is clear that biological processes strongly influence coral Li/Ca, and more calibration work is required before widely applying the prox