Taming Instabilities in Power Grid Networks by Decentralized Control

Renewables will soon dominate energy production in our electric power system. And yet, how to integrate renewable energy into the grid and the market is still a subject of major debate. Decentral Smart Grid Control (DSGC) was recently proposed as a robust and decentralized approach to balance supply and demand and to guarantee a grid operation that is both economically and dynamically feasible. Here, we analyze the impact of network topology by assessing the stability of essential network motifs using both linear stability analysis and basin volume for delay systems. Our results indicate that if frequency measurements are averaged over sufficiently large time intervals, DSGC enhances the stability of extended power grid systems. We further investigate whether DSGC supports centralized and/or decentralized power production and find it to be applicable to both. However, our results on cycle-like systems suggest that DSGC favors systems with decentralized production. Here, lower line capacities and lower averaging times are required compared to those with centralized production.Comment: 21 pages, 6 figures This is a pre-print of a manuscript submitted to The European Physical Journal. The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1140/epjst/e2015-50136-

Discretization of continuous-time arbitrage strategies in financial markets with fractional Brownian motion

This study evaluates the practical usefulness of continuous-time arbitrage strategies designed to exploit serial correlation in fractional financial markets. Specifically, we revisit the strategies of \cite{Shiryaev1998} and \cite{Salopek1998} and transfer them to a real-world setting by distretizing their dynamics and introducing transaction costs. In Monte Carlo simulations with various market and trading parameter settings, we show that both are highly promising with respect to terminal portfolio values and loss probabilities. These features and complementary sparsity make them valuable additions to the toolkit of quantitative investors.Comment: 32 pages, 15 figure

Formation of helium spectrum in solar quiescent prominences

We present new non-LTE modelling of the helium spectrum emitted by quiescent solar prominences. The calculations are made in the frame of a one-dimensional plane-parallel slab. The physical parameters of our models are the electron temperature, the gas pressure, the slab width, the microturbulent velocity and the height above the solar surface. In this paper, we present isothermal isobaric models for a large range of temperature and pressure values. This work brings considerable improvements over the calculations of Heasley and co-workers (Heasley et al. 1974, Heasley and Milkey 1976, 1978, 1983) with the inclusion in our calculations of partial redistribution effects in the formation of the HI Lyα, Lyβ, HeI λ 584 Å and HeII λ 304 Å lines. In addition we consider detailed incident profiles for the principal transitions. The statistical equilibrium equations are solved for a 33 bound levels (HeI and HeII) plus continuum atom, and the radiative transfer equations are solved by the Feautrier method with variable Eddington factors. In this way we obtain the helium level populations and the emergent line profiles. We discuss the influence of the physical parameters on the helium level populations and on the main helium spectral lines. The effect of helium abundance in the prominence plasma is also studied. Some relations between singlet and triplet lines are given, as well as between optically thin or thick lines, HeI and HeII lines, and between the HeI λ 5876 Å and HI λ 4863 Å lines. In a future work this numerical code will be used for the diagnostic of the prominence plasma by comparing the results with SUMER observations

Reliable visual analytics, a prerequisite for outcome assessment of engineering systems

Various evaluation approaches exist for multi-purpose visual analytics (VA) frameworks. They are based on empirical studies in information visualization or on community activities, for example, VA Science and Technology Challenge (2006-2014) created as a community evaluation resource to “decide upon the right metrics to use, and the appropriate implementation of those metrics including datasets and evaluators” 1 . In this paper, we propose to use evaluated VA environments for computer-based processes or systems with the main goal of aligning user plans, system models and software results. For this purpose, trust in VA outcome should be established, which can be done by following the (meta-)design principles of a human-centered verification and validation assessment and also in dependence on users’ task models and interaction styles, since the possibility to work with the visualization interactively is an integral part of VA. To define reliable VA, we point out various dimensions of reliability along with their quality criteria, requirements, attributes and metrics. Several software packages are used to illustrate the concepts

Large-Scale Controls on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity on Seasonal Time Scales

Interannual variations in seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) activity (e.g., genesis frequency and location, track pattern, and landfall) over the Atlantic are explored by employing observationally-constrained simulations with the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System version (GEOS-5) atmospheric general circulation model. The climate modes investigated are El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM). The results show that the NAO and AMM can strongly modify and even oppose the well- known ENSO impacts, like in 2005, when a strong positive AMM (associated with warm SSTs and a negative SLP anomaly over the western tropical Atlantic), led to a very active TC season with enhanced TC genesis over the Caribbean Sea and a number of landfalls over North America, under a neutral ENSO condition. On the other end, the weak TC activity during 2013 (characterized by weak negative Nio index) appears caused by a NAO-induced positive SLP anomaly with enhanced vertical wind shear over the tropical North Atlantic. During 2010, the combined impact of the three modes produced positive SST anomalies across the entire low-latitudinal Atlantic and a weaker subtropical high, leading to more early recurvers and thus fewer landfalls despite enhanced TC genesis. The study provides evidence that TC number and track are very sensitive to the relative phases and intensities of these three modes, and not just to ENSO alone. Examination of seasonal predictability reveals that predictive skill of the three modes is limited over tropics to sub-tropics, with the AMM having the highest predictability over the North Atlantic, followed by ENSO and NAO

Investigation of Axial and Angular Sampling in Multi-Detector Pinhole-SPECT Brain Imaging

We designed a dedicated multi-detector multi-pinhole brain SPECT scanner to generate images of higher quality compared to general-purpose systems. The system, AdaptiSPECT-C, is intended to adapt its sensitivity-resolution trade-off by varying its aperture configurations allowing both high-sensitivity dynamic and high-spatial-resolution static imaging. The current system design consists of 23 detector heads arranged in a truncated spherical geometry. In this work, we investigated the axial and angular sampling capability of the current stationary system design. Two data acquisition schemes using limited rotation of the gantry and two others using axial translation of the imaging bed were also evaluated concerning their impact on image quality through improved sampling. Increasing both angular and axial sampling in the current prototype system resulted in quantitative improvements in image quality metrics and qualitative appearance of the images as determined in studies with specifically selected phantoms. Visual improvements for the brain phantoms with clinical distributions were less pronounced but presented quantitative improvements in the fidelity (normalized root-mean-square error (NRMSE)) and striatal specific binding ratio (SBR) for a dopamine transporter (DAT) distribution, and in NRMSE and activity recovery for a brain perfusion distribution. More pronounced improvements with increased sampling were seen in contrast recovery coefficient, bias, and coefficient of variation for a lesion in the brain perfusion distribution. The negligible impact of the most cranial ring of detectors on axial sampling, but its significant impact on sensitivity and angular sampling in the cranial portion of the imaging volume-of-interest were also determined

The role of artificial light at night and road density in predicting the seasonal occurrence of nocturnally migrating birds

The Leon Levy Foundation; The Wolf Creek Charitable Foundation; Lyda Hill Philanthropies; Amon G. Carter Foundation; National Science Foundation, Grant/Award Number: ABI sustaining DBI-1939187 and ICER-1927743. Computing support was provided by the National Science Foundation, Grant/Award Number: CNS-1059284 and CCF-1522054, and the Extreme Science and Engineering Discovery Environment (XSEDE), National Science Foundation, Grant/Award Number: ACI-1548562, through allocation TG-DEB200010 run on Bridges at the Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center.Aim: Artificial light at night (ALAN) and roads are known threats to nocturnally migrating birds. How associations with ALAN and roads are defined in combination for these species at the population level across the full annual cycle has not been explored. Location: Western Hemisphere. Methods: We estimated range‐wide exposure, predictor importance and the prevalence of positive associations with ALAN and roads at a weekly temporal resolution for 166 nocturnally migrating bird species in three orders: Passeriformes (n = 104), Anseriformes (n = 27) and Charadriiformes (n = 35). We clustered Passeriformes based on the prevalence of positive associations. Results: Positive associations with ALAN and roads were more prevalent for Passeriformes during migration when exposure and importance were highest. Positive associations with ALAN and roads were more prevalent for Anseriformes and Charadriiformes during the breeding season when exposure was lowest. Importance was uniform for Anseriformes and highest during migration for Charadriiformes. Our cluster analysis identified three groups of Passeriformes, each having similar associations with ALAN and roads. The first occurred in eastern North America during migration where exposure, prevalence, and importance were highest. The second wintered in Mexico and Central America where exposure, prevalence and importance were highest. The third occurred throughout North America where prevalence was low, and exposure and importance were uniform. The first and second were comprised of dense habitat specialists and long‐distance migrants. The third was comprised of open habitat specialists and short distance migrants. Main conclusions: Our findings suggest ALAN and roads pose the greatest risk during migration for Passeriformes and during the breeding season for Anseriformes and Charadriiformes. Our results emphasise the close relationship between ALAN and roads, the diversity of associations dictated by taxonomy, exposure, migration strategy and habitat and the need for more informed and comprehensive mitigation strategies where ALAN and roads are treated as interconnected threats.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Inclusion of quasi-vertex views in a brain-dedicated multi-pinhole SPECT system for improved imaging performance

With brain-dedicated multi-detector systems employing pinhole apertures the usage of detectors facing the top of the patient\u27s head (i.e., quasi-vertex views) can provide the advantage of additional viewing from close to the brain for improved detector coverage. In this paper, we report the results of simulation and reconstruction studies to investigate the impact of the quasi-vertex views on the imaging performance of AdaptiSPECT-C, a brain-dedicated stationary SPECT system under development. In this design, both primary and scatter photons from regions located inferior to the brain can contribute to SPECT projections acquired by the quasi-vertex views, and thus degrade AdaptiSPECT-C imaging performance. In this work, we determined the proportion, origin, and nature (i.e., primary, scatter, and multiple-scatter) of counts emitted from structures within the head and throughout the body contributing to projections from the different AdaptiSPECT-C detector rings, as well as from a true vertex view detector. We simulated phantoms used to assess different aspects of image quality (i.e., uniform sphere and Derenzo), as well as anthropomorphic phantoms with multiple count levels emulating clinical(123)I activity distributions (i.e., DaTscan and perfusion). We determined that attenuation and scatter in the patient\u27s body greatly diminish the probability of the photons emitted outside the volume of interest reaching to detectors and being recorded within the 15% photopeak energy window. In addition, we demonstrated that the inclusion of the residual of such counts in the system acquisition does not degrade visual interpretation or quantitative analysis. The addition of the quasi-vertex detectors increases volumetric sensitivity, angular sampling, and spatial resolution leading to significant enhancement in image quality, especially in the striato-thalamic and superior regions of the brain. Besides, the use of quasi-vertex detectors improves the recovery of clinically relevant metrics such as the striatal binding ratio and mean activity in selected cerebral structures

Timing and Pacing of Indonesian Throughflow Restriction and Its Connection to Late Pliocene Climate Shifts

drier conditions. This shift fundamentally reorganized Earth\u27s climate from the Miocene state toward conditions similar to the present. During the Pliocene, the progressive restriction of the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) is suggested to have enhanced this shift toward stronger meridional thermal gradients. Reduced ITF, caused by the northward movement of Australia and uplift of Indonesia, impeded global thermohaline circulation, also contributing to late Pliocene Northern Hemisphere cooling via atmospheric and oceanographic teleconnections. Here we present an orbitally tuned high‐resolution sediment geochemistry, calcareous nannofossil, and X‐ray fluorescence record between 3.65 and 2.97 Ma from the northwest shelf of Australia within the Leeuwin Current. International Ocean Discovery Program Site U1463 provides a record of local surface water conditions and Australian climate in relation to changing ITF connectivity. Modern analogue‐based interpretations of nannofossil assemblages indicate that ITF configuration culminated ~3.54 Ma. A decrease in warm, oligotrophic taxa such as Umbilicosphaera sibogae, with a shift from Gephyrocapsa sp. to Reticulofenestra sp., and an increase of mesotrophic taxa (e.g., Umbilicosphaera jafari and Helicosphaera spp.) suggest that tropical Pacific ITF sources were replaced by cooler, fresher, northern Pacific waters. This initial tectonic reorganization enhanced the Indian Oceans sensitivity to orbitally forced cooling in the southern high latitudes culminating in the M2 glacial event (~3.3 Ma). After 3.3 Ma the restructured ITF established the boundary conditions for the inception of the Sahul‐Indian Ocean Bjerknes mechanism and increased the response to glacio‐eustatic variability