Using ordinal logistic regression to evaluate the performance of laser-Doppler predictions of burn-healing time

Background Laser-Doppler imaging (LDI) of cutaneous blood flow is beginning to be used by burn surgeons to predict the healing time of burn wounds; predicted healing time is used to determine wound treatment as either dressings or surgery. In this paper, we do a statistical analysis of the performance of the technique. Methods We used data from a study carried out by five burn centers: LDI was done once between days 2 to 5 post burn, and healing was assessed at both 14 days and 21 days post burn. Random-effects ordinal logistic regression and other models such as the continuation ratio model were used to model healing-time as a function of the LDI data, and of demographic and wound history variables. Statistical methods were also used to study the false-color palette, which enables the laser-Doppler imager to be used by clinicians as a decision-support tool. Results Overall performance is that diagnoses are over 90% correct. Related questions addressed were what was the best blood flow summary statistic and whether, given the blood flow measurements, demographic and observational variables had any additional predictive power (age, sex, race, % total body surface area burned (%TBSA), site and cause of burn, day of LDI scan, burn center). It was found that mean laser-Doppler flux over a wound area was the best statistic, and that, given the same mean flux, women recover slightly more slowly than men. Further, the likely degradation in predictive performance on moving to a patient group with larger %TBSA than those in the data sample was studied, and shown to be small. Conclusion Modeling healing time is a complex statistical problem, with random effects due to multiple burn areas per individual, and censoring caused by patients missing hospital visits and undergoing surgery. This analysis applies state-of-the art statistical methods such as the bootstrap and permutation tests to a medical problem of topical interest. New medical findings are that age and %TBSA are not important predictors of healing time when the LDI results are known, whereas gender does influence recovery time, even when blood flow is controlled for. The conclusion regarding the palette is that an optimum three-color palette can be chosen 'automatically', but the optimum choice of a 5-color palette cannot be made solely by optimizing the percentage of correct diagnoses

Uterine selection of human embryos at implantation

Human embryos frequently harbor large-scale complex chromosomal errors that impede normal development. Affected embryos may fail to implant although many first breach the endometrial epithelium and embed in the decidualizing stroma before being rejected via mechanisms that are poorly understood. Here we show that developmentally impaired human embryos elicit an endoplasmic stress response in human decidual cells. A stress response was also evident upon in vivo exposure of mouse uteri to culture medium conditioned by low-quality human embryos. By contrast, signals emanating from developmentally competent embryos activated a focused gene network enriched in metabolic enzymes and implantation factors. We further show that trypsin, a serine protease released by pre-implantation embryos, elicits Ca2+ signaling in endometrial epithelial cells. Competent human embryos triggered short-lived oscillatory Ca2+ fluxes whereas low-quality embryos caused a heightened and prolonged Ca2+ response. Thus, distinct positive and negative mechanisms contribute to active selection of human embryos at implantation

A Trial of Early Antiretrovirals and Isoniazid Preventive Therapy in Africa

BACKGROUND: In sub-Saharan Africa, the burden of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-associated tuberculosis is high. We conducted a trial with a 2-by-2 factorial design to assess the benefits of early antiretroviral therapy (ART), 6-month isoniazid preventive therapy (IPT), or both among HIV-infected adults with high CD4+ cell counts in Ivory Coast. METHODS: We included participants who had HIV type 1 infection and a CD4+ count of less than 800 cells per cubic millimeter and who met no criteria for starting ART according to World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines. Participants were randomly assigned to one of four treatment groups: deferred ART (ART initiation according to WHO criteria), deferred ART plus IPT, early ART (immediate ART initiation), or early ART plus IPT. The primary end point was a composite of diseases included in the case definition of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS), non-AIDS-defining cancer, non-AIDS-defining invasive bacterial disease, or death from any cause at 30 months. We used Cox proportional models to compare outcomes between the deferred-ART and early-ART strategies and between the IPT and no-IPT strategies. RESULTS: A total of 2056 patients (41% with a baseline CD4+ count of ≥500 cells per cubic millimeter) were followed for 4757 patient-years. A total of 204 primary end-point events were observed (3.8 events per 100 person-years; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.3 to 4.4), including 68 in patients with a baseline CD4+ count of at least 500 cells per cubic millimeter (3.2 events per 100 person-years; 95% CI, 2.4 to 4.0). Tuberculosis and invasive bacterial diseases accounted for 42% and 27% of primary end-point events, respectively. The risk of death or severe HIV-related illness was lower with early ART than with deferred ART (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.56; 95% CI, 0.41 to 0.76; adjusted hazard ratio among patients with a baseline CD4+ count of ≥500 cells per cubic millimeter, 0.56; 95% CI, 0.33 to 0.94) and lower with IPT than with no IPT (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.48 to 0.88; adjusted hazard ratio among patients with a baseline CD4+ count of ≥500 cells per cubic millimeter, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.36 to 1.01). The 30-month probability of grade 3 or 4 adverse events did not differ significantly among the strategies. CONCLUSIONS: In this African country, immediate ART and 6 months of IPT independently led to lower rates of severe illness than did deferred ART and no IPT, both overall and among patients with CD4+ counts of at least 500 cells per cubic millimeter. (Funded by the French National Agency for Research on AIDS and Viral Hepatitis; TEMPRANO ANRS 12136 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00495651.)

Estimating survival in patients with gastrointestinal cancers and brain metastases: An update of the graded prognostic assessment for gastrointestinal cancers (GI-GPA).

BackgroundPatients with gastrointestinal cancers and brain metastases (BM) represent a unique and heterogeneous population. Our group previously published the Diagnosis-Specific Graded Prognostic Assessment (DS-GPA) for patients with GI cancers (GI-GPA) (1985-2007, n = 209). The purpose of this study is to update the GI-GPA based on a larger contemporary database.MethodsAn IRB-approved consortium database analysis was performed using a multi-institutional (18), multi-national (3) cohort of 792 patients with gastrointestinal (GI) cancers, with newly-diagnosed BM diagnosed between 1/1/2006 and 12/31/2017. Survival was measured from date of first treatment for BM. Multiple Cox regression was used to select and weight prognostic factors in proportion to their hazard ratios. These factors were incorporated into the updated GI-GPA.ResultsMedian survival (MS) varied widely by primary site and other prognostic factors. Four significant factors (KPS, age, extracranial metastases and number of BM) were used to formulate the updated GI-GPA. Overall MS for this cohort remains poor; 8 months. MS by GPA was 3, 7, 11 and 17 months for GPA 0-1, 1.5-2, 2.5-3.0 and 3.5-4.0, respectively. >30% present in the worst prognostic group (GI-GPA of ≤1.0).ConclusionsBrain metastases are not uncommon in GI cancer patients and MS varies widely among them. This updated GI-GPA index improves our ability to estimate survival for these patients and will be useful for therapy selection, end-of-life decision-making and stratification for future clinical trials. A user-friendly, free, on-line app to calculate the GPA score and estimate survival for an individual patient is available at brainmetgpa.com

Serum methylarginines and spirometry-measured lung function in older adults

Rationale: Methylarginines are endogenous nitric oxide synthase inhibitors that have been implicated in animal models of lung disease but have not previously been examined for their association with spirometric measures of lung function in humans. Objectives: This study measured serum concentrations of asymmetric and symmetric dimethylarginine in a representative sample of older community-dwelling adults and determined their association with spirometric lung function measures. Methods: Data on clinical, lifestyle, and demographic characteristics, methylated arginines, and L-arginine (measured using LC-MS/MS) were collected from a population-based sample of older Australian adults from the Hunter Community Study. The five key lung function measures included as outcomes were Forced Expiratory Volume in 1 second, Forced Vital Capacity, Forced Expiratory Volume in 1 second to Forced Vital Capacity ratio, Percent Predicted Forced Expiratory Volume in 1 second, and Percent Predicted Forced Vital Capacity. Measurements and Main Results: In adjusted analyses there were statistically significant independent associations between a) higher asymmetric dimethylarginine, lower Forced Expiratory Volume in 1 second and lower Forced Vital Capacity; and b) lower L-arginine/asymmetric dimethylarginine ratio, lower Forced Expiratory Volume in 1 second, lower Percent Predicted Forced Expiratory Volume in 1 second and lower Percent Predicted Forced Vital Capacity. By contrast, no significant associations were observed between symmetric dimethylarginine and lung function. Conclusions: After adjusting for clinical, demographic, biochemical, and pharmacological confounders, higher serum asymmetric dimethylarginine was independently associated with a reduction in key measures of lung function. Further research is needed to determine if methylarginines predict the decline in lung function

Mass spectrometry imaging identifies palmitoylcarnitine as an immunological mediator during Salmonella Typhimurium infection

Salmonella Typhimurium causes a self-limiting gastroenteritis that may lead to systemic disease. Bacteria invade the small intestine, crossing the intestinal epithelium from where they are transported to the mesenteric lymph nodes (MLNs) within migrating immune cells. MLNs are an important site at which the innate and adaptive immune responses converge but their architecture and function is severely disrupted during S. Typhimurium infection. To further understand host-pathogen interactions at this site, we used mass spectrometry imaging (MSI) to analyse MLN tissue from a murine model of S. Typhimurium infection. A molecule, identified as palmitoylcarnitine (PalC), was of particular interest due to its high abundance at loci of S. Typhimurium infection and MLN disruption. High levels of PalC localised to sites within the MLNs where B and T cells were absent and where the perimeter of CD169+ sub capsular sinus macrophages was disrupted. MLN cells cultured ex vivo and treated with PalC had reduced CD4+CD25+ T cells and an increased number of B220+CD19+ B cells. The reduction in CD4+CD25+ T cells was likely due to apoptosis driven by increased caspase-3/7 activity. These data indicate that PalC significantly alters the host response in the MLNs, acting as a decisive factor in infection outcome

The Role of Individual Variables, Organizational Variables and Moral Intensity Dimensions in Libyan Management Accountants’ Ethical Decision Making

This study investigates the association of a broad set of variables with the ethical decision making of management accountants in Libya. Adopting a cross-sectional methodology, a questionnaire including four different ethical scenarios was used to gather data from 229 participants. For each scenario, ethical decision making was examined in terms of the recognition, judgment and intention stages of Rest’s model. A significant relationship was found between ethical recognition and ethical judgment and also between ethical judgment and ethical intention, but ethical recognition did not significantly predict ethical intention—thus providing support for Rest’s model. Organizational variables, age and educational level yielded few significant results. The lack of significance for codes of ethics might reflect their relative lack of development in Libya, in which case Libyan companies should pay attention to their content and how they are supported, especially in the light of the under-development of the accounting profession in Libya. Few significant results were also found for gender, but where they were found, males showed more ethical characteristics than females. This unusual result reinforces the dangers of gender stereotyping in business. Personal moral philosophy and moral intensity dimensions were generally found to be significant predictors of the three stages of ethical decision making studied. One implication of this is to give more attention to ethics in accounting education, making the connections between accounting practice and (in Libya) Islam. Overall, this study not only adds to the available empirical evidence on factors affecting ethical decision making, notably examining three stages of Rest’s model, but also offers rare insights into the ethical views of practising management accountants and provides a benchmark for future studies of ethical decision making in Muslim majority countries and other parts of the developing world

Resilient cooling strategies – A critical review and qualitative assessment

The global effects of climate change will increase the frequency and intensity of extreme events such as heatwaves and power outages, which have consequences for buildings and their cooling systems. Buildings and their cooling systems should be designed and operated to be resilient under such events to protect occupants from potentially dangerous indoor thermal conditions. This study performed a critical review on the state-of-the-art of cooling strategies, with special attention to their performance under heatwaves and power outages. We proposed a definition of resilient cooling and described four criteria for resilience—absorptive capacity, adaptive capacity, restorative capacity, and recovery speed —and used them to qualitatively evaluate the resilience of each strategy. The literature review and qualitative analyses show that to attain resilient cooling, the four resilience criteria should be considered in the design phase of a building or during the planning of retrofits. The building and relevant cooling system characteristics should be considered simultaneously to withstand extreme events. A combination of strategies with different resilience capacities, such as a passive envelope strategy coupled with a low-energy space-cooling solution, may be needed to obtain resilient cooling. Finally, a further direction for a quantitative assessment approach has been pointed out

Hot Exoplanet Atmospheres Resolved with Transit Spectroscopy (HEARTS) V. Detection of sodium on the bloated super-Neptune WASP-166b

Planet formation processes or evolution mechanisms are surmised to be at the origin of the hot Neptune desert. Studying exoplanets currently living within or at the edge of this desert could allow disentangling the respective roles of formation and evolution. We present the HARPS transmission spectrum of the bloated super-Neptune WASP-166b, located at the outer rim of the Neptune desert. Neutral sodium is detected at the 3.4 $\sigma$ level ($0.455 \pm 0.135 \%$), with a tentative indication of line broadening, which could be caused by winds blowing sodium farther into space, a possible manifestation of the bloated character of these highly irradiated worlds. We put this detection into context with previous work claiming a non-detection of sodium in the same observations and show that the high noise in the trace of the discarded stellar sodium lines was responsible for the non-detection. We highlight the impact of this low signal-to-noise remnant on detections for exoplanets similar to WASP-166b.Comment: 7 pages, 7 figures, accepted for publication in A&

Perceived preparedness of dental academic institutions to cope with the COVID-19 pandemic: a multi-country survey

Dental academic institutions are affected by COVID-19. We assessed the perceived COVID19 preparedness of these institutions and the characteristics of institutions with greater perceived preparedness. An international cross-sectional survey of dental academics was conducted from March to August 2020 to assess academics’ and institutional attributes, perceived preparedness, and availability of infection prevention and control (IPC) equipment. Principal component analysis (PCA) identified perceived preparedness components. Multilevel linear regression analysis assessed the association between perceived preparedness and fixed effect factors (academics’ and institutions’ attributes) with countries as random effect variable. Of the 1820 dental academics from 28 countries, 78.4% worked in public institutions and 75.2% reported temporary closure. PCA showed five components: clinic apparel, measures before and after patient care, institutional policies, and availability of IPC equipment. Significantly less perceived preparedness was reported in lower-middle income (LMICs) (B = −1.31, p = 0.006) and upper-middle income (UMICs) (B = −0.98, p = 0.02) countries than in high-income countries (HICs), in teaching only (B = −0.55, p < 0.0001) and in research only (B = −1.22, p = 0.003) than teaching and research institutions and in institutions receiving ≤100 patients daily than those receiving >100 patients (B = −0.38, p < 0.0001). More perceived preparedness was reported by academics with administrative roles (B = 0.59, p < 0.0001). Academics from low-income countries (LICs) and LMICs reported less availability of clinic apparel, IPC equipment, measures before patient care, and institutional policies but more measures during patient care. There was greater perceived preparedness in HICs and institutions with greater involvement in teaching, research, and patient care