Timing matters: Sampling frequency for early-warning indicators across food web components in a virtual lake

Shallow lakes are known for sudden shifts between a desired clear and an undesired turbid state despite only incremental changes in the underlying drivers. Such sudden shifts are a major challenge for lake managers who can be confronted with abrupt losses of desired ecosystem services without easily observable warning signals. Predictive tools for the loss of ecosystem resilience are vital to respond with timely mitigation measures and avert a shift to the undesired state. Early-warning indicators (EWIs) have faithfully preceded critical transitions in minimal models but have proven more elusive in real-world data, suggesting a mismatch between measurement strategy and the detectability of EWIs. Here, we capitalize on data simulated using the aquatic ecosystem model PCLake+ which represents real systems more closely than reductionistic models and which allows the generation of critical transitions in response to gradual changes in phosphorus load. We tested the effect of different sampling intervals (daily to yearly) on the detection of three often-used EWIs across a range of food web and nutrient-related variables. Moreover, we included one integrated sampling interval (yearly average of daily measurements) to represent time-integrated measurements. EWIs generally performed better at shorter intervals (daily, weekly) but integrated measurements over the year also proved suitable to detect oncoming state shifts. We propose that lake managers should aim for high-frequency measurements of variables that can be easily and cheaply measured (e.g. oxygen, Secchi) or, alternatively, focus on integrated approaches using passive samplers or sedimented material

Response of Submerged Macrophyte Communities to External and Internal Restoration Measures in North Temperate Shallow Lakes

Submerged macrophytes play a key role in north temperate shallow lakes by stabilising clear-water conditions. Eutrophication has resulted in macrophyte loss and shifts to turbid conditions in many lakes. Considerable efforts have been devoted to shallow lake restoration in many countries, but long-term success depends on a stable recovery of submerged macrophytes. However, recovery patterns vary widely and remain to be fully understood. We hypothesize that reduced external nutrient loading leads to an intermediate recovery state with clear spring and turbid summer conditions similar to the pattern described for eutrophication. In contrast, lake internal restoration measures can result in transient clear-water conditions both in spring and summer and reversals to turbid conditions. Furthermore, we hypothesize that these contrasting restoration measures result in different macrophyte species composition, with added implications for seasonal dynamics due to differences in plant traits. To test these hypotheses, we analysed data on water quality and submerged macrophytes from 49 north temperate shallow lakes that were in a turbid state and subjected to restoration measures. To study the dynamics of macrophytes during nutrient load reduction, we adapted the ecosystem model PCLake. Our survey and model simulations revealed the existence of an intermediate recovery state upon reduced external nutrient loading, characterised by spring clear-water phases and turbid summers, whereas internal lake restoration measures often resulted in clear-water conditions in spring and summer with returns to turbid conditions after some years. External and internal lake restoration measures resulted in different macrophyte communities. The intermediate recovery state following reduced nutrient loading is characterised by a few macrophyte species (mainly pondweeds) that can resist wave action allowing survival in shallow areas, germinate early in spring, have energy-rich vegetative propagules facilitating rapid initial growth and that can complete their life cycle by early summer. Later in the growing season these plants are, according to our simulations, outcompeted by periphyton, leading to late-summer phytoplankton blooms. Internal lake restoration measures often coincide with a rapid but transient colonisation by hornworts, waterweeds or charophytes. Stable clear-water conditions and a diverse macrophyte flora only occurred decades after external nutrient load reduction or when measures were combined.Additional co-authors: Wolf M. Mooij, Ruurd Noordhuis, Geoff Phillips, Jacqueline Rücker, Hans-Heinrich Schuster, Martin Søndergaard, Sven Teurlincx, Klaus van de Weyer, Ellen van Donk, Arno Waterstraat and Carl D. Saye

Attribution of global lake systems change to anthropogenic forcing

Lake ecosystems are jeopardized by the impacts of climate change on ice seasonality and water temperatures. Yet historical simulations have not been used to formally attribute changes in lake ice and temperature to anthropogenic drivers. In addition, future projections of these properties are limited to individual lakes or global simulations from single lake models. Here we uncover the human imprint on lakes worldwide using hindcasts and projections from five lake models. Reanalysed trends in lake temperature and ice cover in recent decades are extremely unlikely to be explained by pre-industrial climate variability alone. Ice-cover trends in reanalysis are consistent with lake model simulations under historical conditions, providing attribution of lake changes to anthropogenic climate change. Moreover, lake temperature, ice thickness and duration scale robustly with global mean air temperature across future climate scenarios (+0.9 °C °Cair–1, –0.033 m °Cair–1 and –9.7 d °Cair–1, respectively). These impacts would profoundly alter the functioning of lake ecosystems and the services they provide

The Contribution of High Levels of Somatic Symptom Severity to Sickness Absence Duration, Disability and Discharge

Introduction: The primary objectives were to compare the duration of sickness absence in employees with high levels of somatic symptom severity (HLSSS) with employees with lower levels of somatic symptom severity, and to establish the long-term outcomes concerning return to work (RTW), disability and discharge. Secondary objective was to evaluate determinants of the duration of sickness absence in employees with HLSSS. Methods: 489 sick-listed employees registered with five Occupational Health Physician (OHP) group practices were included in this study. We measured their baseline scores for somatic symptoms severity, depressive disorders, anxiety disorders, health anxiety, distress and functional impairment. The OHPs filled in a questionnaire on their diagnosis. A prospective 2-year follow-up was carried out to assess the long-term outcomes concerning sickness absence, and retrospective information was gathered with regard to sickness absence during the 12 months before the employees were sick-listed. Results: The median duration of sickness absence was 78 days longer for employees with HLSSS. They more often remained disabled and were discharged more often, especially due to problems in the relationship between the employer and the employee. HLSSS, health anxiety and older age contributed to a longer duration of sickness absence of employees. Conclusion: High levels of somatic symptom severity are a determinant of prolonged sickness absence, enduring disabilities and health-related job loss. Occupational health physicians should identify employees who are at risk and adhere to guidelines for medically unexplained somatic symptoms

Diagnostic accuracy of endoscopic ultrasonography-guided tissue acquisition prior to resection of pancreatic carcinoma:a nationwide analysis

Introduction: Endoscopic ultrasonography guided tissue acquisition (EUS + TA) is used to provide a tissue diagnosis in patients with suspected pancreatic cancer. Key performance indicators (KPI) for these procedures are rate of adequate sample (RAS) and sensitivity for malignancy (SFM). Aim: assess practice variation regarding KPI of EUS + TA prior to resection of pancreatic carcinoma in the Netherlands. Patients and methods: Results of all EUS + TA prior to resection of pancreatic carcinoma from 2014–2018, were extracted from the national Dutch Pathology Registry (PALGA). Pathology reports were classified as: insufficient for analysis (b1), benign (b2), atypia (b3), neoplastic other (b4), suspected malignant (b5), and malignant (b6). RAS was defined as the proportion of EUS procedures yielding specimen sufficient for analysis. SFM was calculated using a strict definition (malignant only, SFM-b6), and a broader definition (SFM-b5+6). Results: 691 out of 1638 resected patients (42%) underwent preoperative EUS + TA. RAS was 95% (range 89–100%), SFM-b6 was 44% (20–77%), and SFM-b5+6 was 65% (53–90%). All centers met the performance target RAS>85%. Only 9 out of 17 met the performance target SFM-b5+6 > 85%. Conclusion: This nationwide study detected significant practice variation regarding KPI of EUS + TA procedures prior to surgical resection of pancreatic carcinoma. Therefore, quality improvement of EUS + TA is indicated

Real-world palbociclib effectiveness in patients with metastatic breast cancer: Focus on neutropenia-related treatment modification strategies and clinical outcomes

INTRODUCTION: In addition to clinical trials, real-world data is needed to verify the effectiveness of the CDK 4/6 inhibitor palbociclib. The primary aim was to examine real-world variation in treatment modification strategies for neutropenia and its relation to progression-free survival (PFS). The secondary aim was to assess if there is a gap between real-world and clinical trial outcomes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In this multicenter, retrospective observational cohort study 229 patients were analyzed who started palbociclib and fulvestrant as second- or later-line therapy for HR-positive, HER2-negative metastatic breast cancer in the Santeon hospital group in the Netherlands between September 2016 and December 2019. Data were manually retrieved from patients' electronic medical records. PFS was examined using the Kaplan-Meier method to compare neutropenia-related treatment modification strategies within the first three months after neutropenia grade 3 - 4 occurred, as well as patients' eligibility to have participated in the PALOMA-3 clinical trial or not. RESULTS: Even though treatment modification strategies differed from those in PALOMA-3 (dose interruptions: 26 vs 54%, cycle delays: 54 vs 36%, and dose reductions: 39 vs 34%), these did not influence PFS. Patients who were PALOMA-3 ineligible experienced a shorter median PFS than those who were eligible (10.2 vs. 14.1 months; HR 1.52; 95% CI 1.12 - 2.07). An overall longer median PFS was found compared to PALOMA-3 (11.6 vs. 9.5 months; HR 0.70; 95% CI 0.54 - 0.90). CONCLUSION: This study suggests no impact of neutropenia-related treatment modifications on PFS and confirms inferior outcomes outside clinical trial eligibility

Як уникнути підйому рівня води?

East Africa’s Lake Victoria provides resources and services to millions of people on the lake’s shores and abroad. In particular, the lake’s fisheries are an important source of protein, employment, and international economic connections for the whole region. Nonetheless, stock dynamics are poorly understood and currently unpredictable. Furthermore, fishery dynamics are intricately connected to other supporting services of the lake as well as to lakeshore societies and economies. Much research has been carried out piecemeal on different aspects of Lake Victoria’s system; e.g., societies, biodiversity, fisheries, and eutrophication. However, to disentangle drivers and dynamics of change in this complex system, we need to put these pieces together and analyze the system as a whole. We did so by first building a qualitative model of the lake’s social-ecological system. We then investigated the model system through a qualitative loop analysis, and finally examined effects of changes on the system state and structure. The model and its contextual analysis allowed us to investigate system-wide chain reactions resulting from disturbances. Importantly, we built a tool that can be used to analyze the cascading effects of management options and establish the requirements for their success. We found that high connectedness of the system at the exploitation level, through fisheries having multiple target stocks, can increase the stocks’ vulnerability to exploitation but reduce society’s vulnerability to variability in individual stocks. We describe how there are multiple pathways to any change in the system, which makes it difficult to identify the root cause of changes but also broadens the management toolkit. Also, we illustrate how nutrient enrichment is not a self-regulating process, and that explicit management is necessary to halt or reverse eutrophication. This model is simple and usable to assess system-wide effects of management policies, and can serve as a paving stone for future quantitative analyses of system dynamics at local scales

A framework for ensemble modelling of climate change impacts on lakes worldwide : the ISIMIP Lake Sector

Empirical evidence demonstrates that lakes and reservoirs are warming across the globe. Consequently, there is an increased need to project future changes in lake thermal structure and resulting changes in lake biogeochemistry in order to plan for the likely impacts. Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on lakes have often relied on a single model forced with limited scenario-driven projections of future climate for a relatively small number of lakes. As a result, our understanding of the effects of climate change on lakes is fragmentary, based on scattered studies using different data sources and modelling protocols, and mainly focused on individual lakes or lake regions. This has precluded identification of the main impacts of climate change on lakes at global and regional scales and has likely contributed to the lack of lake water quality considerations in policy-relevant documents, such as the Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Here, we describe a simulation protocol developed by the Lake Sector of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) for simulating climate change impacts on lakes using an ensemble of lake models and climate change scenarios for ISIMIP phases 2 and 3. The protocol prescribes lake simulations driven by climate forcing from gridded observations and different Earth system models under various representative greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCPs), all consistently bias-corrected on a 0.5 degrees x 0.5 degrees global grid. In ISIMIP phase 2, 11 lake models were forced with these data to project the thermal structure of 62 well-studied lakes where data were available for calibration under historical conditions, and using uncalibrated models for 17 500 lakes defined for all global grid cells containing lakes. In ISIMIP phase 3, this approach was expanded to consider more lakes, more models, and more processes. The ISIMIP Lake Sector is the largest international effort to project future water temperature, thermal structure, and ice phenology of lakes at local and global scales and paves the way for future simulations of the impacts of climate change on water quality and biogeochemistry in lakes.Peer reviewe

Subcortical brain volume, regional cortical thickness, and cortical surface area across disorders: findings from the ENIGMA ADHD, ASD, and OCD Working Groups

Objective Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), autism spectrum disorder (ASD), and obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) are common neurodevelopmental disorders that frequently co-occur. We aimed to directly compare all three disorders. The ENIGMA consortium is ideally positioned to investigate structural brain alterations across these disorders. Methods Structural T1-weighted whole-brain MRI of controls (n=5,827) and patients with ADHD (n=2,271), ASD (n=1,777), and OCD (n=2,323) from 151 cohorts worldwide were analyzed using standardized processing protocols. We examined subcortical volume, cortical thickness and surface area differences within a mega-analytical framework, pooling measures extracted from each cohort. Analyses were performed separately for children, adolescents, and adults using linear mixed-effects models adjusting for age, sex and site (and ICV for subcortical and surface area measures). Results We found no shared alterations among all three disorders, while shared alterations between any two disorders did not survive multiple comparisons correction. Children with ADHD compared to those with OCD had smaller hippocampal volumes, possibly influenced by IQ. Children and adolescents with ADHD also had smaller ICV than controls and those with OCD or ASD. Adults with ASD showed thicker frontal cortices compared to adult controls and other clinical groups. No OCD-specific alterations across different age-groups and surface area alterations among all disorders in childhood and adulthood were observed. Conclusion Our findings suggest robust but subtle alterations across different age-groups among ADHD, ASD, and OCD. ADHD-specific ICV and hippocampal alterations in children and adolescents, and ASD-specific cortical thickness alterations in the frontal cortex in adults support previous work emphasizing neurodevelopmental alterations in these disorders