O mainstream economics quanto à liberalização da conta financeira e controles de capital: novas evidências e reorientação teórica

The mainstream studies on capital accounts underwent important changes over the last three decades. Starting from the theoretical models that grounded full capital account liberalization, the financial crises that hit emerging markets in the 1990s and then the global financial crisis that broke out in 2008 showed several dysfunctions of financial globalization. In addition, the post-global crisis period provided new evidence on the effectiveness of regulation measures. In response to much evidence contradicting the earlier ex ante models, several mainstream authors developed new models that ground the use of capital controls. In this context, the main objective of this paper is to analyze the recent evolution of mainstream economics on capital account liberalization and capital controls, focusing on its new evidence and theoretical reorientation. This paper sustains that the new mainstream models represent a new phase in its approach on the regulation of international capital flows.Os estudos da mainstream economics sobre contas financeiras passaram por importantes mudanças ao longo das últimas três décadas. Partindo de modelos que sustentavam uma abertura financeira plena, as crises financeiras dos anos 1990 e a crise financeira global deflagrada em 2008 mostraram diversas disfunções da globalização financeira. Adicionalmente, o período do pós-crise global propiciou novas evidências sobre a efetividade de medidas de regulação. Em resposta a tantas evidências que contradizem os antigos modelos ex ante, autores da mainstream economics desenvolveram novos modelos que fundamentam o uso de controles de capital. Nesse contexto, o principal objetivo do artigo é analisar a recente evolução dos estudos da mainstream economics sobre liberalização da conta financeira e controles de capital, com foco nas novas evidências e na reorientação teórica que tem ocorrido. O artigo sustenta que os novos modelos da mainstream economics representam uma nova fase dessa corrente quanto à regulação do capital externo

Reducing the environmental impact of surgery on a global scale: systematic review and co-prioritization with healthcare workers in 132 countries

Abstract Background Healthcare cannot achieve net-zero carbon without addressing operating theatres. The aim of this study was to prioritize feasible interventions to reduce the environmental impact of operating theatres. Methods This study adopted a four-phase Delphi consensus co-prioritization methodology. In phase 1, a systematic review of published interventions and global consultation of perioperative healthcare professionals were used to longlist interventions. In phase 2, iterative thematic analysis consolidated comparable interventions into a shortlist. In phase 3, the shortlist was co-prioritized based on patient and clinician views on acceptability, feasibility, and safety. In phase 4, ranked lists of interventions were presented by their relevance to high-income countries and low–middle-income countries. Results In phase 1, 43 interventions were identified, which had low uptake in practice according to 3042 professionals globally. In phase 2, a shortlist of 15 intervention domains was generated. In phase 3, interventions were deemed acceptable for more than 90 per cent of patients except for reducing general anaesthesia (84 per cent) and re-sterilization of ‘single-use’ consumables (86 per cent). In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for high-income countries were: introducing recycling; reducing use of anaesthetic gases; and appropriate clinical waste processing. In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for low–middle-income countries were: introducing reusable surgical devices; reducing use of consumables; and reducing the use of general anaesthesia. Conclusion This is a step toward environmentally sustainable operating environments with actionable interventions applicable to both high– and low–middle–income countries

Lead-lag effects between Brent Crude Futures and its respective spot prices

This article aims the analyses of the causality and temporal precedence relationships between the spot and futures prices of Brent oil, those last ones inherent to financial markets. In order to achieve this objective, the main tools used were: Johansen cointegration test; Granger causality/Block Exogeneity Wald test (GCBEW); generalized impulse response function and variance decomposition of forecast errors, those three last ones were estimated based in a Vector Error Correction Model (VEC), adjusted to the analyzed variables. The results indicated that, for the stipulated period, there was a pricing lightweight leadership from the futures contracts to the prices of spot market. However, as a conclusion of the article, the understanding is that this small difference, calculated in several econometric tools, cannot be considered enough to indicate that the Brent oil future market would be distorting its respective spot prices, despite the economic fundamentals of the physical market, such as production, consumption and stockpiling processes. Therefore, management decisions in industries exposed to crude oil prices should be aware of both physical and future markets’ prospections

Financial openness and capital controls in mainstream economics and the IMF : new evidences and regulatory requirements

Orientador: Giuliano Contento de OliveiraDissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de EconomiaResumo: Ao longo das últimas duas décadas, a literatura consagrada no mainstream economics apresentou importantes alterações no escopo de seus estudos. Houve, claramente, dois momentos de descontinuidade, a saber: i) o primeiro, que se seguiu à crise dos países "emergentes"; e ii) o segundo, depois da crise financeira global deflagrada em 2008 - processo este ainda em curso. Nesse sentido, o objetivo dessa dissertação foi analisar essa ruptura no mainstream economics e como isso se refletiu sobre as prescrições do FMI sobre controles de capital e abertura financeira. Para tanto, o trabalho foi realizado a partir de pesquisa bibliográfica. Foi possível verificar que o primeiro momento de reorientação do mainstream economics foi caracterizado por estudos empíricos que contradisseram, para o conjunto de países "emergentes", os principais pressupostos ortodoxos que fundamentaram teoricamente o processo de abertura financeira dessas economias nos anos 1990. O segundo momento, por seu turno, tem se caracterizado por trabalhos empíricos que demonstram a efetividade e os limites do uso de controles sobre os fluxos internacionais de capital pelos países "emergentes", como resposta ao forte influxo de divisas ocorrido logo depois da crise global iniciada em 2008, sob o acicate das políticas anticíclicas realizadas pelos países desenvolvidos. Observou-se, ademais, que concomitantemente a esses estudos, também tem ocorrido uma reorientação teórica importante no âmbito do mainstream economics, caracterizada pelo surgimento de modelos ortodoxos que passaram a fundamentar o uso de controles de capital, inclusive de forma permanente. Com efeito, as recomendações do Fundo Monetário Internacional (FMI) quanto aos temas de abertura financeira e controles de capital também apresentaram mudanças desde as crises dos países "emergentes" dos anos 1990. No período caracterizado entre as "crises dos "emergentes" e crise global iniciada em 2008, as prescrições do FMI enfatizaram um processo de abertura financeira sequencial, em conjunto com a adoção de políticas macroeconômicas sólidas (os denominados thresholds), em contraposição à conversibilidade plena das contas financeiras que a instituição multilateral tradicionalmente recomendava aos países antes dos anos 1990. O segundo ponto de ruptura da retórica do FMI, que vem ocorrendo desde a crise iniciada em 2008, tem sido caracterizado por uma defesa parcial do uso de controles temporários de capital, desde que acompanhados ou precedidos de uma série de pré-requisitos. Contudo, a despeito das novas evidências apontadas pelos trabalhos mais recentes publicados pelo mainstream economics, as quais apontam para a pertinência do uso, inclusive permanente, dos controles sobre os fluxos internacionais de capital, as recomendações do FMI permaneceram relativamente conservadoras a esse respeitoAbstract: Over the past two decades, the literature consecrated in mainstream economics presented important change in its studies scope. There was, clearly, two moments of discontinuity, to know: i) the first one, which occurred after the crisis that hit the "emerging countries"; and ii) the second one, which occurred after the global financial crisis deflagrated in 2008 ¿ a process that is still ongoing. In this sense, the objective of this dissertation was to analyze this rupture in the mainstream economics, and how this process reflected on the International Monetary Fund¿s (IMF) prescriptions about capital controls and financial openness. Therefore, this dissertation was based in bibliographic research. It was possible to verify that the first moment of reorientation was characterized by empirical studies that contradicted, for the conjunct of "emerging" countries, the main orthodox assumptions that theoretically grounded the liberalizing processes of capital account of these economies during the 1990s. The second period, in turn, has been characterized by empirical studies that demonstrate the effectiveness and limits of the use of controls over international fluxes of capital by "emerging countries", as a response to the strong influx of foreign currency that occurred since after the global crisis initiated in 2008, under the spur of anticyclical policies implemented by developed countries. It was observed, in addition, that in tandem with these studies, it also has been occurring an important rhetorical reorientation within mainstream economics, characterized by the appearance of orthodox models that ground the use of capital controls, including in a permanently way. Indeed, the recommendations of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) about financial openness and capital controls also presented significant change since the crisis that hit "emerging countries" in the 1990s. In the period between these crisis and global financial collapse initiated in 2008, the IMF¿s prescriptions focused on a process of sequential financial openness in conjunct with the adoption of solid macroeconomic policies (the thresholds), in contraposition to the pressure for a full convertibility of capital account that this multilateral institution used to recommend to countries before the 1990s. The second rupture point of the IMF¿s rhetoric, that has been occurring since the global crisis initiated in 2008, has been characterized by a partial defense of temporary capital controls, provided they are accompanied or preceded by a series of prerequisites. However, despite the new evidences pointed out by the mainstream economics¿ latest publications, which point out to the relevance of the use, including in a permanently way, of controls over international fluxes of capital, the IMF¿s recommendations remained relatively conservative about itMestradoTeoria EconomicaMestre em Ciências Econômicas130821/2014-4CNP

ARMA-GARCH Model and temporal precedence between stock indices

Faced with the need for risk valuation of financial assets, investors demand sophisticated methods of modeling that can judge the variability of their investments. At the same time, financial globalization has been characterized by common movements and trends between different international markets. In this context, the main objective of this paper was to model the statistical volatility of the Bovespa Index (Ibovespa) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index, using ARMA-GARCH adjustments, in addition to checking the existence of a long- -term balance and temporal precedence between these variables, using the Johansen co-integration and Granger causality tests, respectively. The results established a higher heterogeneous variance for Ibovespa and the existence of temporal precedence for the Dow Jones Index, despite the absence of any long-term balance between the series. It is understood that the latter behavior may have been caused by the existing difference between the conditional heteroscedasticity of each index

Current status of liver surgery for non-colorectal non-neuroendocrine liver metastases: the NON.LI.MET. Italian Society for Endoscopic Surgery and New Technologies (SICE) and Association of Italian Surgeons in Europe (ACIE) collaborative international survey

Despite the increasing trend in liver resections for non-colorectal non-neuroendocrine liver metastases (NCNNLM), the role of surgery for these liver malignancies is still debated. Registries are an essential, reliable tool for assessing epidemiology, diagnosis, and therapeutic approach in a single hub, especially when data are dispersive and inconclusive, as in our case. The dissemination of this preliminary survey would allow us to understand if the creation of an International Registry is a viable option, while still offering a snapshot on this issue, investigating clinical practices worldwide. The steering committee designed an online questionnaire with Google Forms, which consisted of 37 questions, and was open from October 5th, 2022, to November 30th, 2022. It was disseminated using social media and mailing lists of the Italian Society of Endoscopic Surgery and New Technologies (SICE), the Association of Italian Surgeons in Europe (ACIE), and the Spanish Chapter of the American College of Surgeons (ACS). Overall, 141 surgeons (approximately 18% of the total invitations sent) from 27 countries on four continents participated in the survey. Most respondents worked in general surgery units (62%), performing less than 50 liver resections/year (57%). A multidisciplinary discussion was currently performed to validate surgical indications for NCNNLM in 96% of respondents. The most commonly adopted selection criteria were liver resectability, RECIST criteria, and absence of extrahepatic disease. Primary tumors were generally of gastrointestinal (42%), breast (31%), and pancreaticobiliary origin (13%). The most common interventions were parenchymal-sparing resections (51% of respondents) of metachronous metastases with an open approach. Major post-operative complications (Clavien-Dindo > 2) occurred in up to 20% of the procedures, according to 44% of respondents. A subset analysis of data from high-volume centers (> 100 cases/year) showed lower post-operative complications and better survival. The present survey shows that NCNNLM patients are frequently treated by surgeons in low-volume hospitals for liver surgery. Selection criteria are usually based on common sense. Liver resections are performed mainly with an open approach, possibly carrying a high burden of major post-operative complications. International guidelines and a specific consensus on this field are desirable, as well as strategies for collaboration between high-volume and low-volume centers. The present study can guide the elaboration of a multi-institutional document on the optimal pathway in the management of patients with NCNNLM

Global attitudes in the management of acute appendicitis during COVID-19 pandemic: ACIE Appy Study

Background: Surgical strategies are being adapted to face the COVID-19 pandemic. Recommendations on the management of acute appendicitis have been based on expert opinion, but very little evidence is available. This study addressed that dearth with a snapshot of worldwide approaches to appendicitis. Methods: The Association of Italian Surgeons in Europe designed an online survey to assess the current attitude of surgeons globally regarding the management of patients with acute appendicitis during the pandemic. Questions were divided into baseline information, hospital organization and screening, personal protective equipment, management and surgical approach, and patient presentation before versus during the pandemic. Results: Of 744 answers, 709 (from 66 countries) were complete and were included in the analysis. Most hospitals were treating both patients with and those without COVID. There was variation in screening indications and modality used, with chest X-ray plus molecular testing (PCR) being the commonest (19\ub78 per cent). Conservative management of complicated and uncomplicated appendicitis was used by 6\ub76 and 2\ub74 per cent respectively before, but 23\ub77 and 5\ub73 per cent, during the pandemic (both P < 0\ub7001). One-third changed their approach from laparoscopic to open surgery owing to the popular (but evidence-lacking) advice from expert groups during the initial phase of the pandemic. No agreement on how to filter surgical smoke plume during laparoscopy was identified. There was an overall reduction in the number of patients admitted with appendicitis and one-third felt that patients who did present had more severe appendicitis than they usually observe. Conclusion: Conservative management of mild appendicitis has been possible during the pandemic. The fact that some surgeons switched to open appendicectomy may reflect the poor guidelines that emanated in the early phase of SARS-CoV-2