London Schools Excellence Fund: Final Report: Enhancing the teaching of STEM through Design and Technology

London Schools Excellence Fund: Final Report: Enhancing the teaching of STEM through Design and Technolog

Attributing human mortality during extreme heat waves to anthropogenic climate change

It has been argued that climate change is the biggest global health threat of the 21st century. The extreme high temperatures of the summer of 2003 were associated with up to seventy thousand excess deaths across Europe. Previous studies have attributed the meteorological event to the human influence on climate, or examined the role of heat waves on human health. Here, for the first time, we explicitly quantify the role of human activity on climate and heat-related mortality in an event attribution framework, analysing both the Europe-wide temperature response in 2003, and localised responses over London and Paris. Using publicly-donated computing, we perform many thousands of climate simulations of a high-resolution regional climate model. This allows generation of a comprehensive statistical description of the 2003 event and the role of human influence within it, using the results as input to a health impact assessment model of human mortality. We find large-scale dynamical modes of atmospheric variability remain largely unchanged under anthropogenic climate change, and hence the direct thermodynamical response is mainly responsible for the increased mortality. In summer 2003, anthropogenic climate change increased the risk of heat-related mortality in Central Paris by ~70% and by ~20% in London, which experienced lower extreme heat. Out of the estimated ~315 and ~735 summer deaths attributed to the heatwave event in Greater London and Central Paris, respectively, 64 (±3) deaths were attributable to anthropogenic climate change in London, and 506 (±51) in Paris. Such an ability to robustly attribute specific damages to anthropogenic drivers of increased extreme heat can inform societal responses to, and responsibilities for, climate change

One Stomatal Model to Rule Them All?:Toward Improved Representation of Carbon and Water Exchange in Global Models

Stomatal conductance schemes that optimize with respect to photosynthetic and hydraulic functions have been proposed to address biases in land-surface model (LSM) simulations during drought. However, systematic evaluations of both optimality-based and alternative empirical formulations for coupling carbon and water fluxes are lacking. Here, we embed 12 empirical and optimization approaches within a LSM framework. We use theoretical model experiments to explore parameter identifiability and understand how model behaviors differ in response to abiotic changes. We also evaluate the models against leaf-level observations of gas-exchange and hydraulic variables, from xeric to wet forest/woody species spanning a mean annual precipitation range of 361–3,286 mm yr−1. We find that models differ in how easily parameterized they are, due to: (a) poorly constrained optimality criteria (i.e., resulting in multiple solutions), (b) low influence parameters, (c) sensitivities to environmental drivers. In both the idealized experiments and compared to observations, sensitivities to variability in environmental drivers do not agree among models. Marked differences arise in sensitivities to soil moisture (soil water potential) and vapor pressure deficit. For example, stomatal closure rates at high vapor pressure deficit range between −45% and +70% of those observed. Although over half the new generation of stomatal schemes perform to a similar standard compared to observations of leaf-gas exchange, two models do so through large biases in simulated leaf water potential (up to 11 MPa). Our results provide guidance for LSM development, by highlighting key areas in need for additional experimentation and theory, and by constraining currently viable stomatal hypotheses

Genomic inversions and GOLGA core duplicons underlie disease instability at the 15q25 locus.

Human chromosome 15q25 is involved in several disease-associated structural rearrangements, including microdeletions and chromosomal markers with inverted duplications. Using comparative fluorescence in situ hybridization, strand-sequencing, single-molecule, real-time sequencing and Bionano optical mapping analyses, we investigated the organization of the 15q25 region in human and nonhuman primates. We found that two independent inversions occurred in this region after the fission event that gave rise to phylogenetic chromosomes XIV and XV in humans and great apes. One of these inversions is still polymorphic in the human population today and may confer differential susceptibility to 15q25 microdeletions and inverted duplications. The inversion breakpoints map within segmental duplications containing core duplicons of the GOLGA gene family and correspond to the site of an ancestral centromere, which became inactivated about 25 million years ago. The inactivation of this centromere likely released segmental duplications from recombination repression typical of centromeric regions. We hypothesize that this increased the frequency of ectopic recombination creating a hotspot of hominid inversions where dispersed GOLGA core elements now predispose this region to recurrent genomic rearrangements associated with disease

The effects of verbal information and approach-avoidance training on children's fear-related responses.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES This study examined the effects of verbal information and approach-avoidance training on fear-related cognitive and behavioural responses about novel animals. METHODS One hundred and sixty children (7-11 years) were randomly allocated to receive: a) positive verbal information about one novel animal and threat information about a second novel animal (verbal information condition); b) approach-avoidance training in which they repeatedly pushed away (avoid) or pulled closer (approach) pictures of the animals (approach-avoidance training), c) a combined condition in which verbal information was given prior to approach-avoidance training (verbal information + approach-avoidance training) and d) a combined condition in which approach-avoidance training was given prior to verbal information (approach-avoidance training + verbal information). RESULTS Threat and positive information significantly increased and decreased fear beliefs and avoidance behaviour respectively. Approach-avoidance training was successful in training the desired behavioural responses but had limited effects on fear-related responses. Verbal information and both combined conditions resulted in significantly larger effects than approach-avoidance training. We found no evidence for an additive effect of these pathways. LIMITATIONS This study used a non-clinical sample and focused on novel animals rather than animals about which children already had experience or established fears. The study also compared positive information/approach with threat information/avoid training, limiting specific conclusions regarding the independent effects of these conditions. CONCLUSIONS The present study finds little evidence in support of a possible causal role for behavioural response training in the aetiology of childhood fear. However, the provision of verbal information appears to be an important pathway involved in the aetiology of childhood fear

The feasibility of using pattern recognition software to measure the influence of computer use on the consultation

BACKGROUND: A key feature of a good general practice consultation is that it is patient-centred. A number of verbal and non-verbal behaviours have been identified as important to establish a good relationship with the patient. However, the use of the computer detracts the doctor's attention away from the patient, compromising these essential elements of the consultation. Current methods to assess the consultation and the influence of the computer on them are time consuming and subjective. If it were possible to measure these quantitatively, it could provide the basis for the first truly objective way of studying the influence of the computer on the consultation. The aim was to assess whether pattern recognition software could be used to measure the influence and pattern of computer use in the consultation. If this proved possible it would provide, for the first time, an objective quantitative measure of computer use and a measure of the attention and responsiveness of the general practitioner towards the patient. METHODS: A feasibility study using pattern recognition software to analyse a consultation was conducted. A web camera, linked to a data-gathering node was used to film a simulated consultation in a standard office. Members of the research team enacted the role of the doctor and the patient, using pattern recognition software to try and capture patient-centred, non-verbal behaviour. As this was a feasibility study detailed results of the analysis are not presented. RESULTS: It was revealed that pattern recognition software could be used to analyse certain aspects of a simulated consultation. For example, trigger lines enabled the number of times the clinician's hand covered the keyboard to be counted and wrapping recorded the number of times the clinician nodded his head. It was also possible to measure time sequences and whether the movement was brief or lingering. CONCLUSION: Pattern recognition software enables movements associated with patient-centredness to be recorded. Pattern recognition software has the potential to provide an objective, quantitative measure of the influence of the computer on the consultation

Evidence for genetic variance in resistance to tuberculosis in Great Britain and Irish Holstein-Friesian populations

peer-reviewedBackground: Here, we jointly summarise scientific evidence for genetic variation in resistance to infection with Mycobacterium bovis, the primary agent of bovine tuberculosis (TB), provided by two recent and separate studies of Holstein-Friesian dairy cow populations in Great Britain (GB) and Ireland. Methods: The studies quantified genetic variation within archived data from field and abattoir surveillance control programmes within each country. These data included results from the single intradermal comparative tuberculin test (SICTT), abattoir inspection for TB lesions and laboratory confirmation of disease status. Threshold animal models were used to estimate variance components for responsiveness to the SICTT and abattoir confirmed M. bovis infection. The link functions between the observed 0/1 scale and the liability scale were the complementary log-log in the GB, and logit link function in the Irish population. Results and discussion: The estimated heritability of susceptibility to TB, as judged by responsiveness to the SICTT, was 0.16 (0.012) and 0.14 (0.025) in the GB and Irish populations, respectively. For abattoir or laboratory confirmation of infection, estimates were 0.18 (0.044) and 0.18 (0.041) from the GB and the Irish populations, respectively. Conclusions: Estimates were all significantly different from zero and indicate that exploitable variation exists among GB and Irish Holstein Friesian dairy cows for resistance to TB. Epidemiological analysis suggests that factors such as variation in exposure or imperfect sensitivity and specificity would have resulted in underestimation of the true values

Comparing nuclear power trajectories in Germany and the UK: from ‘regimes' to ‘democracies’ in sociotechnical transitions and Discontinuities

This paper focuses on arguably the single most striking contrast in contemporary major energy politics in Europe (and even the developed world as a whole): the starkly differing civil nuclear policies of Germany and the UK. Germany is seeking entirely to phase out nuclear power by 2022. Yet the UK advocates a ‘nuclear renaissance’, promoting the most ambitious new nuclear construction programme in Western Europe.Here,this paper poses a simple yet quite fundamental question: what are the particular divergent conditions most strongly implicated in the contrasting developments in these two countries. With nuclear playing such an iconic role in historical discussions over technological continuity and transformation, answering this may assist in wider understandings of sociotechnical incumbency and discontinuity in the burgeoning field of‘sustainability transitions’. To this end, an ‘abductive’ approach is taken: deploying nine potentially relevant criteria for understanding the different directions pursued in Germany and the UK. Together constituted by 30 parameters spanning literatures related to socio-technical regimes in general as well as nuclear technology in particular, the criteria are divided into those that are ‘internal’ and ‘external’ to the ‘focal regime configuration’ of nuclear power and associated ‘challenger technologies’ like renewables. It is ‘internal’ criteria that are emphasised in conventional sociotechnical regime theory, with ‘external’ criteria relatively less well explored. Asking under each criterion whether attempted discontinuation of nuclear power would be more likely in Germany or the UK, a clear picture emerges. ‘Internal’ criteria suggest attempted nuclear discontinuation should be more likely in the UK than in Germany– the reverse of what is occurring. ‘External’ criteria are more aligned with observed dynamics –especially those relating to military nuclear commitments and broader ‘qualities of democracy’. Despite many differences of framing concerning exactly what constitutes ‘democracy’, a rich political science literature on this point is unanimous in characterising Germany more positively than the UK. Although based only on a single case,a potentially important question is nonetheless raised as to whether sociotechnical regime theory might usefully give greater attention to the general importance of various aspects of democracy in constituting conditions for significant technological discontinuities and transformations. If so, the policy implications are significant. A number of important areas are identified for future research, including the roles of diverse understandings and specific aspects of democracy and the particular relevance of military nuclear commitments– whose under-discussion in civil nuclear policy literatures raises its own questions of democratic accountability