Testing Spatial Correlation of Subduction Interplate Coupling and Forearc Morpho-Tectonics

Subduction zones that are capable of generating great (Mw greater than 8) earthquakes appear to have a common assemblage of forearc morphologic elements. Although details vary, each have (from the trench landward), an accretionary prism, outer arc high, outer forearc basin, an inner forean: basin, and volcanic arc. This pattern is common in spite of great variation in forearc architecture. Because interseismic strain is known to be associated with a locked seismogenic plate interface, we infer that this common forearc morphology is related, in an unknown way, to the process of interseismic Strain accumulation and release in great earthquakes. To date, however, no clear relationship between the subduction process and the common elements of upper plate form has emerged. Whereas certain elements of the system, i.e. the outer arc high, are reasonably well- understood in a structural context, there is little understanding of the structural or topographic evolution of the other key elements like the inner arc and inner forearc basin, particularly with respect to the coupled zone of earthquake generation. This project developed a model of the seismologic, topographic, and uplift/denudation linkages between forearc topography and the subduction system by: 1) comparing geophysical, geodetic, and topographic data from subduction margins that generate large earthquakes; 2) using existing GPS, seismicity, and other data to model the relationship between seismic cycles involving a locked interface and upper-plate topographic development; and 3) using new GPS data and a range-scale topographic, uplift, and denudation analysis of the presently aseismic Cascadia margin to constrain topographic/plate coupling relationships at this poorly understood margin

Wunen, a Drosophila lipid phosphate phosphatase, is required for septate junction-mediated barrier function

Lipid phosphate phosphatases (LPPs) are integral membrane enzymes that regulate the levels of bioactive lipids such as sphingosine 1-phosphate and lysophosphatidic acid. The Drosophila LPPs Wunen (Wun) and Wunen-2 (Wun2) have a well-established role in regulating the survival and migration of germ cells. We now show that wun has an essential tissue-autonomous role in development of the trachea: the catalytic activity of Wun is required to maintain septate junction (SJ) paracellular barrier function, loss of which causes failure to accumulate crucial luminal components, suggesting a role for phospholipids in SJ function. We find that the integrity of the blood-brain barrier is also lost in wun mutants, indicating that loss of SJ function is not restricted to the tracheal system. Furthermore, by comparing the rescue ability of different LPP homologs we show that wun function in the trachea is distinct from its role in germ cell migration

Late Holocene Rupture of the Northern San Andreas Fault and Possible Stress Linkage to the Cascadia Subduction Zone

We relate the late Holocene northern San Andreas fault (NSAF) paleoseismic history developed using marine sediment cores along the northern California continental margin to a similar dataset of cores collected along the Cascadia margin, including channels from Barclay Canyon off Vancouver Island to just north of Monterey Bay. Stratigraphic correlation and evidence of synchronous triggering imply earthquake origin, and both temporal records are compatible with onshore paleoseismic data. In order to make comparisons between the temporal earthquake records from the NSAF and Cascadia, we refine correlations of southern Cascadia great earthquakes, including the land paleoseismic record. Along the NSAF during the last ~2800 yr, 15 turbidites, including one likely from the great 1906 earthquake, establish an average repeat time of ~200 yr, similar to the onshore value of ~240 yr. The combined land and marine paleoseismic record from the southern Cascadia subduction zone includes a similar number of events during the same period. While the average recurrence interval for full-margin Cascadia events is ~520 yr, the southern Cascadia margin has a repeat time of ~220 yr, similar to that of the NSAF. Thirteen of the 15 NSAF events were preceded by Cascadia events by ~0–80 yr, averaging 25–45 yr (as compared to ~80–400 yr by which Cascadia events follow the NSAF). Based on the temporal association, we model the coseismic and cumulative postseismic deformation from great Cascadia megathrust events and compute related stress changes along the NSAF in order to test the possibility that Cascadia earthquakes triggered the penultimate, and perhaps other, NSAF events. The Coulomb failure stress (CFS) resulting from viscous deformation related to a Cascadia earthquake over ~60 yr does not contribute significantly to the total CFS on the NSAF. However, the coseismic deformation increases CFS on the northern San Andreas fault (NSAF) by up to about 9 bars offshore of Point Delgada, most likely enough to trigger that fault to fail in north-to-south propagating ruptures.Peer reviewe

Revising Estimates of Spatially Variable Subsidence during the A.D. 1700 Cascadia Earthquake Using a Bayesian Foraminiferal Transfer Function

Coseismic subsidence along the Cascadia subduction zone causes abrupt relative sea-level (RSL) rise that is recorded in coastal stratigraphy and foraminiferal assemblages. RSL reconstructions therefore provide insight into the magnitude, nature, and frequency of great earthquakes that can constrain deformation models and quantify the seismic risk faced by coastal populations. These reconstructions are commonly generated using transfer functions that are calibrated from counts of modern (surface) foraminifera and corresponding elevation measurements. We developed four transfer functions of increasing complexity to explore how and why the composition of the modern dataset and the choice of transfer-function type affects subsidence reconstructions. Application of these four models to stratigraphic contacts (mud abruptly overlying peat or soil) representing the A.D. 1700 Cascadia earthquake and a field experiment that simulated subsidence show that a Bayesian transfer function (BTF) calibrated using a large modern dataset (19 sites from California to Vancouver Island) and incorporating prior information from stratigraphic context produces systematically larger subsidence estimates than a weighted-averaging transfer function calibrated using a smaller modern dataset (8 sites in Oregon) that does not leverage stratigraphic context. This difference arises from (1) training set composition, (2) taxa–elevation relationships in the BTF that are not assumed to be unimodal, and (3) stratigraphic prior information that compensates for postdepositional, downward mixing of postearthquake foraminifera into pre-earthquake sediment, which biases reconstructions at some sites toward smaller subsidence. Our reconstructions support a heterogeneous rupture model for the A.D. 1700 earthquake, but indicate that slip estimates in patches from Alsea Bay to Netarts Bay (Oregon) and from Netarts Bay to Vancouver Island should be increased

Snowmass 2021 CMB-S4 White Paper

This Snowmass 2021 White Paper describes the Cosmic Microwave Background Stage 4 project CMB-S4, which is designed to cross critical thresholds in our understanding of the origin and evolution of the Universe, from the highest energies at the dawn of time through the growth of structure to the present day. We provide an overview of the science case, the technical design, and project plan