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Word embeddings reveal growing moral concern for people, animals, and the environment

The Enlightenment idea of historical moral progress asserts that civil societies become more moral over time. This is often understood as an expanding moral circle and is argued to be tightly linked with language use, with some suggesting that shifts in how we express concern for others can be considered an important indicator of moral progress. Our research explores these notions by examining historical trends in natural language use during the 19th and 20th centuries. We found that the associations between words denoting moral concern and words referring to people, animals, and the environment grew stronger over time. The findings support widely-held views about the nature of moral progress by showing that language has changed in a way that reflects greater concern for others

Speciesism in everyday language

Speciesism, like other forms of prejudice, is thought to be underpinned by biased patterns of language use. Thus far, however, psychological science has primarily focused on how speciesism is reflected in individuals' thoughts as opposed to wider collective systems of meaning such as language. We present a large-scale quantitative test of speciesism by applying machine-learning methods (word embeddings) to billions of English words derived from conversation, film, books, and the Internet. We found evidence of anthropocentric speciesism: words denoting concern (vs. indifference) and value (vs. valueless) were more closely associated with words denoting humans compared to many other animals. We also found evidence of companion animal speciesism: the same words were more closely associated with words denoting companion animals compared to most other animals. The work describes speciesism as a pervasive collective phenomenon that is evident in a naturally occurring expression of human psychology – everyday language

Predictors of starting and stopping chemsex in men who have sex with men in England: findings from the AURAH2 prospective study

BACKGROUND: Chemsex (the use of psychoactive drugs in sexual contexts) has been associated with HIV acquisition and other STIs, so there is benefit in identifying those most likely to start chemsex to offer risk reduction interventions such as pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). To date, there have been no data from a longitudinal study analysing factors most associated with starting and stopping chemsex. METHODS: The prospective cohort study, Attitudes to and Understanding Risk of Acquisition of HIV over Time (AURAH2), collected 4 monthly and annual online questionnaire data from men who have sex with men (MSM) from 2015 to 2018. We investigate the association of sociodemographic factors, sexual behaviours and drug use with starting and stopping chemsex among 622 men who completed at least one follow-up questionnaire. Poisson models with generalised estimating equations were used to produce risk ratios (RRs) accounting for multiple starting or stopping episodes from the same individual. Multivariable analysis was adjusted for age group, ethnicity, sexual identity and university education. FINDINGS: In the multivariable analysis, the under 40 age group was significantly more likely to start chemsex by the next assessment (RR 1.79, 95% CI 1.12 to 2.86). Other factors which showed significant association with starting chemsex were unemployment (RR 2.10, 95% CI 1.02 to 4.35), smoking (RR 2.49, 95% CI 1.63 to 3.79), recent condomless sex (CLS), recent STI and postexposure prophylaxis (PEP) use in the past year (RR 2.10, 95% CI 1.33 to 3.30). Age over 40 (RR 0.71, 95% CI 0.51 to 0.99), CLS, and use of PEP (RR 0.64, 95% CI 0.47 to 0.86) and PrEP (RR 0.47, 95% CI 0.29 to 0.78) were associated with lower likelihood of stopping chemsex by the next assessment. INTERPRETATION: Knowledge of these results allows us to identify men most likely to start chemsex, thus providing an opportunity for sexual health services to intervene with a package of risk mitigation measures, especially PrEP use

Thermal Analysis of Potted Litz Wire for High-Power-Density Aerospace Electric Machines

Increasing the power density and efficiency of electric machines (motors and generators) is integral to bringing Electrified Aircraft (EA) to commercial realization. To that end an effort to create a High Efficiency Megawatt Motor (HEMM) with a goal of exceeding 98% efficiency and 1.46 MW of power has been undertaken at the NASA Glenn Research Center. Of the motor components the resistive losses in the stator windings are by far the largest contributor (34%) to total motor loss. The challenge is the linear relationship between resistivity and temperature, making machine operation sensitive to temperature increases. In order to accurately predict the thermal behavior of the stator the thermal conductivity of the Litz wire-potting-electrical insulation system must be known. Unfortunately, this multi material system has a wide range of thermal conductivities (0.1 W/m-K 400 W/m-K) and a high anisotropy (axial vs transverse) making the prediction of the transverse thermal conductivity an in turn the hot spot temperatures in the windings is difficult. In order to do this a device that simulates the thermal environment found in the HEMM stator was designed. This device is not unlike the motorettes (little motors) that are described in IEEE standards for testing electrical insulation lifetimes or other electric motor testing. However, because the HEMM motor design includes significant rotor electrical and thermal considerations the term motorette was not deemed appropriate. Instead statorette (or little stator) was adopted as the term for this test device. This paper discussed the design, thermal heat conjugate analysis (thermal model), manufacturing and testing of HEMM's statorette. Analysis of the results is done by thermal resistance network model and micro thermal model and is compared to analytical predictions of thermal conductivity of the insulated and potted Litz wire system

Long-term increase in secondary exposure to anticoagulant rodenticides in European polecats Mustela putorius in Great Britain

As a result of legal protection and population recovery, European polecats (Mustela putorius) in Great Britain are expanding into areas associated with greater usage of second-generation anticoagulant rodenticides (SGARs). We analysed polecat livers collected from road casualties from 2013 to 2016 for residues of five SGARs. We related variation in residues to polecat traits and potential exposure pathways, by analysing stable isotopes of carbon (δ13C) and nitrogen (δ15N) in their whiskers. 54 of 68 (79%) polecats had detectable residues of at least one SGAR. Bromadiolone (71%) was the most frequently detected compound, followed by difenacoum (53%) and brodifacoum (35%). Applying historical limits of detection to allow comparison between these new data and previous assessments, we show that in the 25 years from 1992 to 2016 inclusive, the rate of detection of SGARs in polecats in Britain has increased by a factor of 1.7. The probability of SGAR detection was positively related to increasing values of δ15N, suggesting that polecats feeding at a higher trophic level were more likely to be exposed. Total concentrations of SGARs in polecats with detectable residues were higher in polecats collected in arable compared to pastoral habitats, and in the west compared to the east of Britain. The number of compounds detected and total concentrations of SGARs increased with polecat age. There was no evidence of regional or seasonal variation in the probability of detecting SGARs, suggesting that the current risk of exposure to SGARs does not vary seasonally and has increased (from that in the 1990s) throughout the polecat's range. We recommend quantification of current practices in rodenticide usage, particularly in the light of recent regulatory changes, to enable assessment and mitigation of the risks of secondary exposure to rodenticides in non-target wildlife

Fossil CO2 emissions in the post-COVID-19 era

Five years after the adoption of the Paris Climate Agreement, growth in global CO2 emissions has begun to falter. The pervasive disruptions from the COVID-19 pandemic have radically altered the trajectory of global CO2 emissions. Contradictory effects of the post-COVID-19 investments in fossil fuel-based infrastructure and the recent strengthening of climate targets must be addressed with new policy choices to sustain a decline in global emissions in the post-COVID-19 era

Global Carbon Budget 2016

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere &ndash; the &ldquo;global carbon budget&rdquo; &ndash; is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates and consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2&nbsp;emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in&nbsp;SOCEAN&nbsp;is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2&nbsp;measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2&nbsp;sink (SLAND) &nbsp;is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models. We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as &plusmn;1&sigma;, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2006&ndash;2015),&nbsp;EFF was 9.3 &plusmn; 0.5 GtC yr-1,&nbsp;ELUC 1.0 &plusmn; 0.5 GtC yr-1,&nbsp;GATM 4.5 &plusmn; 0.1 GtC yr-1,&nbsp;SOCEAN&nbsp;2.6 &plusmn; 0.5 GtC yr-1, and&nbsp;SLAND 3.1 &plusmn; 0.9 GtC yr-1. For year 2015 alone, the growth in&nbsp;EFF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9 &plusmn; 0.5 GtC yr-1, showing a slowdown in growth of these emissions compared to the average growth of 1.8 % yr-1 that took place during 2006&ndash;2015. Also, for 2015,&nbsp;ELUC was 1.3 &plusmn; 0.5 GtC yr-1,&nbsp;GATM&nbsp;was 6.3 &plusmn; 0.2 GtC yr-1,&nbsp;SOCEAN&nbsp;was 3.0 &plusmn; 0.5 GtC yr-1, and&nbsp;SLAND was 1.9 &plusmn; 0.9 GtC yr-1.&nbsp;GATM&nbsp;was higher in 2015 compared to the past decade (2006&ndash;2015), reflecting a smaller&nbsp;SLAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO2&nbsp;concentration reached 399.4 &plusmn; 0.1 ppm averaged over 2015. For 2016, preliminary data indicate the continuation of low growth in&nbsp;EFF with +0.2 % (range of &minus;1.0 to +1.8 %) based on national emissions projections for China and USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. In spite of the low growth of&nbsp;EFF in 2016, the growth rate in atmospheric CO2&nbsp;concentration is expected to be relatively high because of the persistence of the smaller residual terrestrial sink (SLAND) in response to El Ni&ntilde;o conditions of 2015&ndash;2016. From this projection of&nbsp;EFF and assumed constant&nbsp;ELUC for 2016, cumulative emissions of CO2&nbsp;will reach 565 &plusmn; 55 GtC (2075 &plusmn; 205 GtCO2) for 1870&ndash;2016, about 75 % from&nbsp;EFF and 25 % from&nbsp;ELUC . This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Qu&eacute;r&eacute; et al., 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2016).</p

National contributions to climate change due to historical emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide since 1850

Anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) have made significant contributions to global warming since the pre-industrial period and are therefore targeted in international climate policy. There is substantial interest in tracking and apportioning national contributions to climate change and informing equitable commitments to decarbonisation. Here, we introduce a new dataset of national contributions to global warming caused by historical emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide during the years 1851–2021, which are consistent with the latest findings of the IPCC. We calculate the global mean surface temperature response to historical emissions of the three gases, including recent refinements which account for the short atmospheric lifetime of CH4. We report national contributions to global warming resulting from emissions of each gas, including a disaggregation to fossil and land use sectors. This dataset will be updated annually as national emissions datasets are updated

European anthropogenic AFOLU emissions and their uncertainties: a review and benchmark data

Emission of greenhouse gases (GHG) and removals from land, including both anthropogenic and natural fluxes, require reliable quantification, along with estimates of their inherent uncertainties, in order to support credible mitigation action under the Paris Agreement. This study provides a state-of-the-art scientific overview of bottom-up anthropogenic emissions data from agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) in Europe. The data integrates recent AFOLU emission inventories with ecosystem data and land carbon models, covering the European Union (EU28) and summarizes GHG emissions and removals over the period 1990–2016, of relevance for UNFCCC. This compilation of bottom-up estimates of the AFOLU GHG emissions of European national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGI) with those of land carbon models and observation-based estimates of large-scale GHG fluxes, aims at improving the overall estimates of the GHG balance in Europe with respect to land GHG emissions and removals. Particular effort is devoted to the estimation of uncertainty, its propagation and role in the comparison of different estimates. While NGHGI data for EU28 provides consistent quantification of uncertainty following the established IPCC guidelines, uncertainty in the estimates produced with other methods will need to account for both within model uncertainty and the spread from different model results. At EU28 level, the largest inconsistencies between estimates are mainly due to different sources of data related to human activity which result in emissions or removals taking place during a given period of time (IPCC 2006) referred here as activity data (AD) and methodologies (Tiers) used for calculating emissions/removals from AFOLU sectors. The referenced datasets related to figures are visualised at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3460311, Petrescu et al., 2019