Potential for cost recovery: women's willingness to pay for injectable contraceptives in Tigray, Ethiopia.

ObjectiveTo investigate factors associated with a woman's willingness to pay (WTP) for injectable contraceptives in Tigray, Ethiopia.MethodsWe used a multistage random sampling design to generate a representative sample of reproductive age women from the Central Zone of Tigray, Ethiopia to participate in a survey (N = 1490). Respondents who had ever used injectable contraceptives or who were interested in using them were asked whether they would be willing to pay, and if so, how much. Logistic regression odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and p-values were used to assess which factors were associated with WTP in our final model.FindingsOn average, respondents were willing to pay 11 birr ($0.65 USD) per injection. Being married, completing any amount of education, having given birth, and having visited a health facility in the last 12 months (whether received family planning information or not) were associated with statistically significantly increased odds of WTP. Having initiated sexual activity and having 1-2 children (compared to 0 children) were associated with statistically significantly decreased odds of WTP. We also detected two significant interactions. Among women who prefer injectable contraceptives, their odds of WTP for injectable contraceptives vary across length of time they have used them. And among women who work for pay, their odds of WTP for injectable contraceptives vary by whether they agree with their husband/partner about the ideal number of children.ConclusionIn a sector that continually struggles with funding, cost recovery for contraceptive services may offer a means of improved financial sustainability while increasing rural access to injectable contraceptives. Results indicate there are opportunities for cost recovery in rural Tigray, Ethiopia and highlight factors that could be leveraged to increase WTP for injectable contraceptives

Meeting rural demand: a case for combining community-based distribution and social marketing of injectable contraceptives in Tigray, Ethiopia.

BackgroundIn Sub-Saharan Africa, policy changes have begun to pave the way for community distribution of injectable contraceptives but sustaining such efforts remains challenging. Combining social marketing with community-based distribution provides an opportunity to recover some program costs and compensate workers with proceeds from contraceptive sales. This paper proposes a model for increasing access to injectable contraceptives in rural settings by using community-based distributers as social marketing agents and incorporating financing systems to improve sustainability.MethodsThis intervention was implemented in three districts of the Central Zone of Tigray, Ethiopia and program data has been collected from November 2011 through October 2012. A total of 137 Community Based Reproductive Health Agents (CBRHAs) were trained to provide injectable contraceptives and were provided with a loan of 25 injectable contraceptives from a drug revolving fund, created with project funds. The price of a single dose credited to a CBRHA was 3 birr ($0.17) and they provide injections to women for 5 birr ($0.29), determined with willingness-to-pay data. Social marketing was used to create awareness and generate demand. Both quantitative and qualitative methods were used to examine important feasibility aspects of the intervention.ResultsForty-four percent of CBRHAs were providing family planning methods at the time of the training and 96% believed providing injectable contraceptives would improve their services. By October 2012, 137 CBRHAs had successfully completed training and provided 2541 injections. Of total injections, 47% were provided to new users of injectable contraceptives. Approximately 31% of injections were given for free to the poorest women, including adolescents.ConclusionsInsights gained from the first year of implementation of the model provide a framework for further expansion in Tigray, Ethiopia. Our experience highlights how program planners can tailor interventions to match family planning preferences and create more sustainable contraceptive service provision with greater impact

Community Health Workers as Social Marketers of Injectable Contraceptives: A Case Study from Ethiopia.

Ethiopia has made notable progress in increasing awareness and knowledge of family planning and is considered a success story among funders and program planners. Yet unmet need among rural women (28.6%) is almost double that of urban women (15.5%), with a wide gap in total fertility rate depending on urban (2.6) or rural (5.5) residence. This study investigates the impact of a service delivery model that combines community-based distribution (CBD) of contraception with social marketing in Tigray, Ethiopia, to create a more sustainable approach to CBD. Between September 2011 and October 2013, 626 volunteer CHWs were recruited and trained to administer depot medroxyprogesterone acetate (DMPA) injections and provide counseling and referrals to the health post for other methods; the project implementation period ended in June 2014. The CHWs received a supply of DMPA injections in the form of a microloan from a drug revolving fund; the CHWs charged women a minimal fee (5 birr, or US$0.29), determined based on willingness-to-pay data, for each DMPA injection; and the CHWs returned part of the fee (3 birr) to the drug revolving fund while keeping the remaining portion (2 birr). The CHWs also promoted demand for family planning through door-to-door outreach and community meetings. Existing health extension workers (HEWs) provided regular supervision of the CHWs, supplemented by in-depth supervision visits from study coordinators. Baseline and endline representative surveys of women of reproductive age, as well as of participating CHWs, were conducted. In addition, DMPA provision data from the CHWs were collected. Between October 2011 and June 2014, the CHWs served in total 8,604 women and administered an estimated 15,410 DMPA injections, equivalent to providing 3,853 couple-years of protection. There was a 25% significant increase in contraceptive use among surveyed women, from 30.1% at baseline to 37.7% at endline, with DMPA use largely responsible for this increase. Changes in quality of family planning markers from baseline suggested services improved between baseline and endline: nearly 50% more women reported being told about side effects and what to do if they experience side effects, and 25% more women said they were told about other methods of contraception. The results from household surveys at baseline and endline suggest that CHWs in this model made a significant contribution to family planning in the region

Cost implications of delays to tuberculosis diagnosis among pulmonary tuberculosis patients in Ethiopia

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Delays seeking care worsen the burden of tuberculosis and cost of care for patients, families and the public health system. This study investigates costs of tuberculosis diagnosis incurred by patients, escorts and the public health system in 10 districts of Ethiopia.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>New pulmonary tuberculosis patients ≥ 15 years old were interviewed regarding their health care seeking behaviour at the time of diagnosis. Using a structured questionnaire patients were interviewed about the duration of delay at alternative care providers and the public health system prior to diagnosis. Costs incurred by patients, escorts and the public health system were quantified through patient interview and review of medical records.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Interviews were held with 537 (58%) smear positive patients and 387 (42%) smear negative pulmonary patients. Of these, 413 (45%) were female; 451 (49%) were rural residents; and the median age was 34 years. The mean (median) days elapsed for consultation at alternative care providers and public health facilities prior to tuberculosis diagnosis was 5 days (0 days) and 3 (3 days) respectively. The total median cost incurred from first consultation to diagnosis was $27 per patient (mean =$59). The median costs per patient incurred by patient, escort and the public health system were $16 (mean =$29), $3 (mean =$23) and $3 (mean =$7) respectively. The total cost per patient diagnosed was higher for women, rural residents; those who received government food for work support, patients with smear negative pulmonary tuberculosis and patients who were not screened for TB in at least one district diagnostic centers.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The costs of tuberculosis diagnosis incurred by patients and escorts represent a significant portion of their monthly income. The costs arising from time lost in seeking care comprised a major portion of the total cost of diagnosis, and may worsen the economic position of patients and their families. Getting treatment from alternative sources and low index of suspicion public health providers were key problems contributing to increased cost of tuberculosis diagnosis. Thus, the institution of effective systems of referral, ensuring screening of suspects across the district public health system and the involvement of alternative care providers in district tuberculosis control can reduce delays and the financial burden to patients and escorts.</p

Delayed consultation among pulmonary tuberculosis patients: a cross sectional study of 10 DOTS districts of Ethiopia

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Delays seeking care increase transmission of pulmonary tuberculosis and hence the burden of tuberculosis, which remains high in developing countries. This study investigates patterns of health seeking behavior and determines risk factors for delayed patient consultation at public health facilities in 10 districts of Ethiopia.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>New pulmonary TB patients ≥ 15 years old were recruited at 18 diagnostic centres. Patients were asked about their health care seeking behaviour and the time from onset of symptoms to first consultation at a public health facility. First consultation at a public health facility 30 days or longer after onset of symptoms was regarded as prolonged patient delay.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Interviews were held with 924 pulmonary patients. Of these, 537 (58%) were smear positive and 387 (42%) were smear negative; 413 (45%) were female; 451 (49%) were rural residents; and the median age was 34 years. Prior to their first consultation at a public health facility, patients received treatment from a variety of informal sources: the Orthodox Church, where they were treated with holy water (24%); private practitioners (13%); rural drug vendors (7%); and traditional healers (3%). The overall median patient delay was 30 days (mean = 60 days). Fifty three percent [95% Confidence Intervals (CI) (50%, 56%)] of patients had delayed their first consultation for ≥ 30 days. Patient delay for women was 54%; 95% CI (54%, 58%) and men 51%; 95% CI (47%, 55%). The delay was higher for patients who used informal treatment (median 31 days) than those who did not (15 days). Prolonged patient delay (≥ 30 days) was significantly associated with both patient-related and treatment-related factors. Significant patient-related factors were smear positive pulmonary disease [Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) 1.4; 95% CI (1.1 to 1.9)], rural residence [AOR 1.4; 95% CI (1.1 to 1.9)], illiteracy [AOR 1.7; 95% CI (1.2 to 2.4)], and lack of awareness/misperceptions of causes of pulmonary TB. Significant informal treatment-related factors were prior treatment with holy water [AOR 3.5; 95% CI (2.4 to 5)], treatment by private practitioners [AOR 1.7; 95% CI (1.1 to 2.6)] and treatment by drug vendors [AOR 1.9; 95% CI (1.1 to 3.5)].</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Nearly half of pulmonary tuberculosis patients delayed seeking health care at a public health facility while getting treatment from informal sources. The involvement of religious institutions and private practitioners in early referral of patients with pulmonary symptoms and creating public awareness about tuberculosis could help reduce delays in starting modern treatment.</p

Trends in HIV/AIDS morbidity and mortality in Eastern 3 Mediterranean countries, 1990–2015: findings from the Global 4 Burden of Disease 2015 study

Objectives We used the results of the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study to estimate trends of HIV/AIDS burden in Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) countries between 1990 and 2015. Methods Tailored estimation methods were used to produce final estimates of mortality. Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated by multiplying the mortality rate by population by age-specific life expectancy. Years lived with disability (YLDs) were computed as the prevalence of a sequela multiplied by its disability weight. Results In 2015, the rate of HIV/AIDS deaths in the EMR was 1.8 (1.4–2.5) per 100,000 population, a 43% increase from 1990 (0.3; 0.2–0.8). Consequently, the rate of YLLs due to HIV/AIDS increased from 15.3 (7.6–36.2) per 100,000 in 1990 to 81.9 (65.3–114.4) in 2015. The rate of YLDs increased from 1.3 (0.6–3.1) in 1990 to 4.4 (2.7–6.6) in 2015. Conclusions HIV/AIDS morbidity and mortality increased in the EMR since 1990. To reverse this trend and achieve epidemic control, EMR countries should strengthen HIV surveillance,and scale up HIV antiretroviral therapy and comprehensive prevention services

Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

The UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of “leaving no one behind”. Understanding today’s gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990–2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49\ub74% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46\ub74–52\ub70). The TFR decreased from 4\ub77 livebirths (4\ub75–4\ub79) to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub75), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83\ub78 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197\ub72% (193\ub73–200\ub78) since 1950, from 2\ub76 billion (2\ub75–2\ub76) to 7\ub76 billion (7\ub74–7\ub79) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2\ub70%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1\ub71% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2\ub75% in 1963 to 0\ub77% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2\ub77%. The global average age increased from 26\ub76 years in 1950 to 32\ub71 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59\ub79% to 65\ub73%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1\ub70 livebirths (95% UI 0\ub79–1\ub72) in Cyprus to a high of 7\ub71 livebirths (6\ub78–7\ub74) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0\ub708 livebirths (0\ub707–0\ub709) in South Korea to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub76) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0\ub73 livebirths (0\ub73–0\ub74) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3\ub71 livebirths (3\ub70–3\ub72) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2\ub70% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress