Crise Hídrica em São Paulo em 2014: Seca e Desmatamento

O presente estudo apresenta uma análise hidrometeorológica da estação chuvosa 2013/2014 na Região Sudeste do Brasil, com o objetivo de diagnosticar a seca e seu impacto na disponibilidade hídrica do Estado de São Paulo. Foram analisados os totais acumulados da precipitação, os principais sistemas meteorológicos atuantes durante o período chuvoso (dezembro-fevereiro) e o papel da floresta Amazônica como uma das fontes de umidade para o Brasil Central e regiões sul-sudeste. As análises revelaram que os totais acumulados foram significativamente abaixo dos valores médios, com desvios negativos em torno de 62%, temperaturas 2.5 oC acima da média e um aumento no consumo de água, esses fatores conjuntamente geraram uma crise hídrica sem precedente desde 1960.    This study shows an hydrometeorological analyses of the 2013-2014 rainy season in Southeastern Brazil, in order to assess the magnitude and extension of the drought and water crises that affect the State of Sao Paulo during summer of 2014. For that we analyze mean rainfall and anomalies during the peak rainfall months (December-February). In particular, rainfall was well below normal from December 2013 to February 2014. We investigate the physical causes of this lack of rain in the region, in the context of rain producing mechanisms in the region, including the role of the Amazon tropical rainforest as one of the sources or moisture for rainfall in Southern and Southeastern Brazil. Rainfall analyses showed that summertime accumulated were about 62% below normal in 2014, and together with a 2,5 oC warmer summer and increase in water use, all of these generated an unprecedented water crisis since 1960.

Changes in Climate and Land Use Over the Amazon Region: Current and Future Variability and Trends

This paper shows recent progress in our understanding of climate variability and trends in the Amazon region, and how these interact with land use change. The review includes an overview of up-to-date information on climate and hydrological variability, and on warming trends in Amazonia, which reached 0.6–0.7°C over the last 40 years, with 2016 as the warmest year since at least 1950 (0.9°C + 0.3°C). We focus on local and remote drivers of climate variability and change. We review the impacts of these drivers on the length of dry season, the role of the forest in climate and carbon cycles, the resilience of the forest, the risk of fires and biomass burning, and the potential “die back” of the Amazon forests if surpassing a “tipping point”. The role of the Amazon in moisture recycling and transport is also investigated, and a review of model development for climate change projections in the region is included. In sum, future sustainability of the Amazonian forests and its many services requires management strategies that consider the likelihood of multi-year droughts superimposed on a continued warming trend. Science has assembled enough knowledge to underline the global and regional importance of an intact Amazon region that can support policymaking and to keep this sensitive ecosystem functioning. This major challenge requires substantial resources and strategic cross-national planning, and a unique blend of expertise and capacities established in Amazon countries and from international collaboration. This also highlights the role of deforestation control in support of policy for mitigation options as established in the Paris Agreement of 2015

Robust late twenty-first century shift in the regional monsoons in RegCM-CORDEX simulations

AbstractWe use an unprecedented ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) projections over seven regional CORDEX domains to provide, for the first time, an RCM-based global view of monsoon changes at various levels of increased greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. All regional simulations are conducted using RegCM4 at a 25 km horizontal grid spacing using lateral and lower boundary forcing from three General Circulation Models (GCMs), which are part of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5). Each simulation covers the period from 1970 through 2100 under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). Regional climate simulations exhibit high fidelity in capturing key characteristics of precipitation and atmospheric dynamics across monsoon regions in the historical period. In the future period, regional monsoons exhibit a spatially robust delay in the monsoon onset, an increase in seasonality, and a reduction in the rainy season length at higher levels of radiative forcing. All regions with substantial delays in the monsoon onset exhibit a decrease in pre-monsoon precipitation, indicating a strong connection between pre-monsoon drying and a shift in the monsoon onset. The weakening of latent heat driven atmospheric warming during the pre-monsoon period delays the overturning of atmospheric subsidence in the monsoon regions, which defers their transitioning into deep convective states. Monsoon changes under the RCP2.6 scenario are mostly within the baseline variability

Measurement of the t-channel single top quark production cross section

The D0 collaboration reports direct evidence for electroweak production of single top quarks through the t-channel exchange of a virtual W boson. This is the first analysis to isolate an individual single top quark production channel. We select events containing an isolated electron or muon, missing transverse energy, and two, three or four jets from 2.3 fb^-1 of ppbar collisions at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider. One or two of the jets are identified as containing a b hadron. We combine three multivariate techniques optimized for the t-channel process to measure the t- and s-channel cross sections simultaneously. We measure cross sections of 3.14 +0.94 -0.80 pb for the t-channel and 1.05 +-0.81 pb for the s-channel. The measured t-channel result is found to have a significance of 4.8 standard deviations and is consistent with the standard model prediction.Comment: 7 pages, 6 figure

Search for new fermions ("quirks") at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider

We report results of a search for particles with anomalously high ionization in events with a high transverse energy jet and large missing transverse energy in $2.4$ fb$^{-1}$ of integrated luminosity collected by the D0 experiment at the Fermilab Tevatron $p\bar{p}$ collider. Production of such particles (quirks) is expected in scenarios with extra QCD-like {\it SU(N)} sectors, and this study is the first dedicated search for such signatures. We find no evidence of a signal and set a lower mass limit of 107 ~GeV for the mass of a charged quirk with strong dynamics scale $\Lambda$ in the range from 10 keV to 1 MeV.Comment: submitted to Phys. Rev. Letter

Precise measurement of the top quark mass in the dilepton channel at D0

We measure the top quark mass (mt) in ppbar collisions at a center of mass energy of 1.96 TeV using dilepton ttbar->W+bW-bbar->l+nubl-nubarbbar events, where l denotes an electron, a muon, or a tau that decays leptonically. The data correspond to an integrated luminosity of 5.4 fb-1 collected with the D0 detector at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider. We obtain mt = 174.0 +- 1.8(stat) +- 2.4(syst) GeV, which is in agreement with the current world average mt = 173.3 +- 1.1 GeV. This is currently the most precise measurement of mt in the dilepton channel.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figure

Measurement of trilinear gauge boson couplings from WW + WZ to lnu jj events in pp-bar collisions at sqrt{s}=1.96 TeV

We present a direct measurement of trilinear gauge boson couplings at gammaWW and ZWW vertices in WW and WZ events produced in pp-bar collisions at sqrt{s}=1.96 TeV. We consider events with one electron or muon, missing transverse energy, and at least two jets. The data were collected using the D0 detector and correspond to 1.1/fb of integrated luminosity. Considering two different relations between the couplings at the gammaWW and ZWW vertices, we measure these couplings at 68% C.L. to be kappa_{gamma}=1.07^{+0.26}_{-0.29}, lambda =0.00^{+0.06}_{-0.06} and g_{1}^{Z}=1.04^{+0.09}_{-0.09} in a scenario respecting SU(2)_L x U(1)_Y gauge symmetry and kappa =1.04^{+0.11}_{-0.11} and lambda=0.00^{+0.06}_{-0.06} in an "equal couplings" scenario.Comment: 14 pages, 7 figures, published in Phys. Rev. D, updated to published versio

Measurement of the B0_s semileptonic branching ratio to an orbitally excited D_s** state, Br(B0_s -> Ds1(2536) mu nu)

In a data sample of approximately 1.3 fb-1 collected with the D0 detector between 2002 and 2006, the orbitally excited charm state D_s1(2536) has been observed with a measured mass of 2535.7 +/- 0.6 (stat) +/- 0.5 (syst) MeV via the decay mode B0_s -> D_s1(2536) mu nu X. A first measurement is made of the branching ratio product Br(b(bar) -> D_s1(2536) mu nu X).Br(D_s1(2536)->D* K0_S). Assuming that D_s1(2536) production in semileptonic decay is entirely from B0_s, an extraction of the semileptonic branching ratio Br(B0_s -> D_s1(2536) mu nu X) is made.Comment: 7 pages, 2 figures, LaTeX, version with minor changes as accepted by Phys. Rev. Let

Measurements of differential cross sections of Z/gamma*+jets+X events in proton anti-proton collisions at sqrt{s}=1.96 TeV

We present cross section measurements for Z/gamma*+jets+X production, differential in the transverse momenta of the three leading jets. The data sample was collected with the D0 detector at the Fermilab Tevatron proton anti-proton collider at a center-of-mass energy of 1.96 TeV and corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 1 fb-1. Leading and next-to-leading order perturbative QCD predictions are compared with the measurements, and agreement is found within the theoretical and experimental uncertainties. We also make comparisons with the predictions of four event generators. Two parton-shower-based generators show significant shape and normalization differences with respect to the data. In contrast, two generators combining tree-level matrix elements with a parton shower give a reasonable description of the the shapes observed in data, but the predicted normalizations show significant differences with respect to the data, reflecting large scale uncertainties. For specific choices of scales, the normalizations for either generator can be made to agree with the measurements.Comment: Published in PLB. 11 pages, 3 figure

Measurement of the W boson mass

We present a measurement of the W boson mass in W -> ev decays using 1 fb^-1 of data collected with the D0 detector during Run II of the Fermilab Tevatron collider. With a sample of 499830 W -> ev candidate events, we measure M_W = 80.401 +- 0.043 GeV. This is the most precise measurement from a single experiment.Comment: As published in PR