Examining sense of belonging among first-year undergraduates from different racial/ethnic groups

This study examined sense of belonging among a national sample of 2,967 first-year students. Guided by the work of Hurtado and Carter (1997), relationships between several aspects of the college environment and sense of belonging were examined. Findings indicated that African American, Hispanic/Latino, and Asian Pacific American students reported a less strong sense of belonging than White/Caucasian students. The social dimensions of the transition to college and residence hall climate and perceptions of the campus racial climate had strong significant relationships to students' sense of belonging. Implications for practice and future research are discussed

CMB-S4: Forecasting Constraints on Primordial Gravitational Waves

CMB-S4---the next-generation ground-based cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiment---is set to significantly advance the sensitivity of CMB measurements and enhance our understanding of the origin and evolution of the Universe, from the highest energies at the dawn of time through the growth of structure to the present day. Among the science cases pursued with CMB-S4, the quest for detecting primordial gravitational waves is a central driver of the experimental design. This work details the development of a forecasting framework that includes a power-spectrum-based semi-analytic projection tool, targeted explicitly towards optimizing constraints on the tensor-to-scalar ratio, $r$, in the presence of Galactic foregrounds and gravitational lensing of the CMB. This framework is unique in its direct use of information from the achieved performance of current Stage 2--3 CMB experiments to robustly forecast the science reach of upcoming CMB-polarization endeavors. The methodology allows for rapid iteration over experimental configurations and offers a flexible way to optimize the design of future experiments given a desired scientific goal. To form a closed-loop process, we couple this semi-analytic tool with map-based validation studies, which allow for the injection of additional complexity and verification of our forecasts with several independent analysis methods. We document multiple rounds of forecasts for CMB-S4 using this process and the resulting establishment of the current reference design of the primordial gravitational-wave component of the Stage-4 experiment, optimized to achieve our science goals of detecting primordial gravitational waves for $r > 0.003$ at greater than $5\sigma$, or, in the absence of a detection, of reaching an upper limit of $r < 0.001$ at $95\%$ CL.Comment: 24 pages, 8 figures, 9 tables, submitted to ApJ. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1907.0447

CMB-S4: Forecasting Constraints on Primordial Gravitational Waves

Abstract: CMB-S4—the next-generation ground-based cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiment—is set to significantly advance the sensitivity of CMB measurements and enhance our understanding of the origin and evolution of the universe. Among the science cases pursued with CMB-S4, the quest for detecting primordial gravitational waves is a central driver of the experimental design. This work details the development of a forecasting framework that includes a power-spectrum-based semianalytic projection tool, targeted explicitly toward optimizing constraints on the tensor-to-scalar ratio, r, in the presence of Galactic foregrounds and gravitational lensing of the CMB. This framework is unique in its direct use of information from the achieved performance of current Stage 2–3 CMB experiments to robustly forecast the science reach of upcoming CMB-polarization endeavors. The methodology allows for rapid iteration over experimental configurations and offers a flexible way to optimize the design of future experiments, given a desired scientific goal. To form a closed-loop process, we couple this semianalytic tool with map-based validation studies, which allow for the injection of additional complexity and verification of our forecasts with several independent analysis methods. We document multiple rounds of forecasts for CMB-S4 using this process and the resulting establishment of the current reference design of the primordial gravitational-wave component of the Stage-4 experiment, optimized to achieve our science goals of detecting primordial gravitational waves for r > 0.003 at greater than 5σ, or in the absence of a detection, of reaching an upper limit of r < 0.001 at 95% CL

Zur Spezifizierung von Risiko und Unsicherheit in räumlichen Modellen

Beiträge zur räumlichen Theorie des Wählens gehen zumeist von idealisierten Bedingungen aus: Wähler sind vollständig informiert und entscheiden sich strikt rational, Parteien beziehen klare und eindeutig identifizierbare Positionen im politischen Wettbewerbsraum, Wählereinstellungen zum Umgang mit Risiko und Unsicherheit sind à priori in theoretischen und statistischen Modellen fixiert. Dieser Beitrag hinterfragt diese Grundannahmen der „Neo-Downsianischen“ Modelltradition. Er bestimmt empirisch, wie Wähler räumliche Distanzen in Nutzenfunktionen übersetzen und wie sie dabei mit Risiko und Unsicherheit umgehen. Ein wesentlicher Aspekt betrifft dabei die Angemessenheit von konkaven oder konvexen Nutzenfunktionen, also die Frage, ob theoretische und/ oder statistische Modelle Verlustfunktionen mit quadratischen oder mit linearen Metriken spezifizieren sollten. Die empirische Analyse verwendet das umfangreiche Datenmaterial des Wahlforschungsprojekts „The Comparative Study of Electoral Systems“ (CSES). Vergleichende Analysen des Wahlverhaltens zeigen dabei eindeutig, dass Wähler über neunzig heterogene Wahlkontexte hinweg wesentlich weniger risikoavers sind als von der großen Mehrheit theoretischer und empirischer Beiträge unterstellt wird. Stattdessen zeigen dieser Beitrag, dass moderne Wähler sich im Wesentlichen risikoneutral verhalten