Analysis of referrals and triage patterns in a South African metropolitan adult intensive care service

Background. Intensive care unit (ICU) beds are scarce resources in low- and middle-income countries. Currently there is little literature that quantifies the extent of the demand placed on these resources or examines their allocation.Objectives. To analyse the number and nature of referrals to ICUs in the Pietermaritzburg metropolitan area, South Africa, over a 1-year period, to observe the triage process involved in selecting patients for admission.Methods. A retrospective review of the patients referred to ICUs at Grey’s and Edendale hospitals, Pietermaritzburg, was performed over a year. The spectrum of patients was evaluated with respect to various demographics, and the current triage process was observed.Results. The Pietermaritzburg Metropolitan Critical Care service (PMCCS) received 2 081 patient referrals, 53.4% (1 111/2 081) of males and 46.6% (970/2 081) of females, with a mean patient age of 32 years. The majority of referrals were of surgical patients (39.3%, 818/2 081), followed by medical (18.9%, 393/2 081), trauma (18.6%, 387/2 081) and obstetrics and gynaecology (11.7%, 244/2 081). The chief indications for referral were the need for cardiovascular and respiratory support. Of these referrals, 72.0% (1 499/2 081) were accepted and planned for admission and 28.0% (582/2 081) were refused ICU care. Of the patients accepted, 60.7% (910/1 499) experienced delays prior to admission and 37.4% (561/1 499) were never physically admitted to the units.Conclusions. The PMCCS receives a far greater number of patient referrals than it is able to accommodate, necessitating triage. Patient demographics reflect a young patient population referred with chiefly surgical pathology needing physiological support

Predicting postoperative haemoglobin changes after burn surgery

Background. Burn surgery is associated with significant blood loss and fluid shifts that cause rapid haemoglobin (Hb) changes during and after surgery. Understanding the relationship between intraoperative and postoperative (day 1) Hb changes may assist in avoiding postoperative anaemia and unnecessary peri-operative blood transfusion.Objective. To describe the Hb changes into the first day after burn surgery and to identify factors predictive of Hb changes that would guide blood transfusion decisions.Methods. This was a single-institution, retrospective cohort study that included 158 patients who had undergone burn surgery. Hb was measured at the start and end of surgery, and on the first day (16 - 32 hours) after surgery, and the results were analysed. Peri-operative factors (Hb at the end of surgery, total body surface area operated on (TBSA-op), fluid administration and intraoperative blood administration) were evaluated to determine their association with Hb changes on the first day after surgery.Results. The mean (standard deviation) preoperative Hb was 10.6 (2.29) g/dL, the mean postoperative Hb was 9.4 (2.01) g/dL, and the mean Hb on the first day after surgery was 9.2 (2.19) g/dL. Median total burn surface area was 7% (interquartile range 9%, min. 1%, max. 45%), with a mean body surface area operated on (debridement area plus donor area) of 9.7%. Of the 158 patients, 26 (16%) had an Hb <7 g/dL (transfusion trigger) on the first day after surgery. For patients with a high (≥9 g/dL), intermediate (≥7 - <9 g/dL), or low (<7 g/dL) Hb measurement at the end of burn surgery, those with an Hb below the transfusion trigger on the first day after burn surgery were 0%, 27%, and 75%, respectively. End-of-surgery Hb and TBSA-op strongly predicted the first day Hb level. In the intermediate group, 55% of patients with a TBSA-op ≥11% had an Hb below the transfusion trigger on the first day after surgery.Conclusion. Hb at the end of burn surgery was the best predictor of Hb on the first day after surgery. Patients with an Hb <7 g/dL remained as such on the first postoperative day. Half of the patients with an end-of-surgery Hb ≥7 - <9 g/dL and who had ≥11% TBSA-op had an Hb <7 g/dL on the first postoperative day

Development and evaluation of deep learning algorithms for assessment of acute burns and the need for surgery

Assessment of burn extent and depth are critical and require very specialized diagnosis. Automated image-based algorithms could assist in performing wound detection and classification. We aimed to develop two deep-learning algorithms that respectively identify burns, and classify whether they require surgery. An additional aim assessed the performances in different Fitzpatrick skin types. Annotated burn (n = 1105) and background (n = 536) images were collected. Using a commercially available platform for deep learning algorithms, two models were trained and validated on 70% of the images and tested on the remaining 30%. Accuracy was measured for each image using the percentage of wound area correctly identified and F1 scores for the wound identifier; and area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC) curve, sensitivity, and specificity for the wound classifier. The wound identifier algorithm detected an average of 87.2% of the wound areas accurately in the test set. For the wound classifier algorithm, the AUC was 0.885. The wound identifier algorithm was more accurate in patients with darker skin types; the wound classifier was more accurate in patients with lighter skin types. To conclude, image-based algorithms can support the assessment of acute burns with relatively good accuracy although larger and different datasets are needed.Peer reviewe

Global patient outcomes after elective surgery: prospective cohort study in 27 low-, middle- and high-income countries.

BACKGROUND: As global initiatives increase patient access to surgical treatments, there remains a need to understand the adverse effects of surgery and define appropriate levels of perioperative care. METHODS: We designed a prospective international 7-day cohort study of outcomes following elective adult inpatient surgery in 27 countries. The primary outcome was in-hospital complications. Secondary outcomes were death following a complication (failure to rescue) and death in hospital. Process measures were admission to critical care immediately after surgery or to treat a complication and duration of hospital stay. A single definition of critical care was used for all countries. RESULTS: A total of 474 hospitals in 19 high-, 7 middle- and 1 low-income country were included in the primary analysis. Data included 44 814 patients with a median hospital stay of 4 (range 2-7) days. A total of 7508 patients (16.8%) developed one or more postoperative complication and 207 died (0.5%). The overall mortality among patients who developed complications was 2.8%. Mortality following complications ranged from 2.4% for pulmonary embolism to 43.9% for cardiac arrest. A total of 4360 (9.7%) patients were admitted to a critical care unit as routine immediately after surgery, of whom 2198 (50.4%) developed a complication, with 105 (2.4%) deaths. A total of 1233 patients (16.4%) were admitted to a critical care unit to treat complications, with 119 (9.7%) deaths. Despite lower baseline risk, outcomes were similar in low- and middle-income compared with high-income countries. CONCLUSIONS: Poor patient outcomes are common after inpatient surgery. Global initiatives to increase access to surgical treatments should also address the need for safe perioperative care. STUDY REGISTRATION: ISRCTN5181700

South African Paediatric Surgical Outcomes Study : a 14-day prospective, observational cohort study of paediatric surgical patients

BACKGROUND : Children comprise a large proportion of the population in sub-Saharan Africa. The burden of paediatric surgical disease exceeds available resources in Africa, potentially increasing morbidity and mortality. There are few prospective paediatric perioperative outcomes studies, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). METHODS : We conducted a 14-day multicentre, prospective, observational cohort study of paediatric patients (aged <16 yrs) undergoing surgery in 43 government-funded hospitals in South Africa. The primary outcome was the incidence of in-hospital postoperative complications. RESULTS : We recruited 2024 patients at 43 hospitals. The overall incidence of postoperative complications was 9.7% [95% confidence interval (CI): 8.4–11.0]. The most common postoperative complications were infective (7.3%; 95% CI: 6.2–8.4%). In-hospital mortality rate was 1.1% (95% CI: 0.6–1.5), of which nine of the deaths (41%) were in ASA physical status 1 and 2 patients. The preoperative risk factors independently associated with postoperative complications were ASA physcial status, urgency of surgery, severity of surgery, and an infective indication for surgery. CONCLUSIONS : The risk factors, frequency, and type of complications after paediatric surgery differ between LMICs and high-income countries. The in-hospital mortality is 10 times greater than in high-income countries. These findings should be used to develop strategies to improve paediatric surgical outcomes in LMICs, and support the need for larger prospective, observational paediatric surgical outcomes research in LMICs. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION : NCT03367832.Jan Pretorius Research Fund; Discipline of Anaesthesiology and Critical Care, Nelson R Mandela School of Medicine, University of KwaZulu-Natal; Department of Anaesthesia and Perioperative Medicine, Groote Schuur Hospital and University of Cape Town; Department of Anaesthesia, University of the Witwatersrand; and the Paediatric Anaesthesia Community of South Africa (PACSA).https://bjanaesthesia.org2020-02-01gl2019Anaesthesiolog