Trends in the Dates of Ice Freeze-up and Breakup over Hudson Bay, Canada

Hudson Bay experiences a complete cryogenic cycle each year. Sea ice begins to form in late October, and the Bay is usually ice-free in early August. This seasonally varying ice cover plays an important role in the regional climate. To identify secular trends in the cryogenic cycle, we examined variability in the timing of sea-ice formation and retreat during the period 1971– 2003. The dates of ice freeze-up and breakup at 36 locations across Hudson Bay were catalogued for each year from weekly ice charts provided by the Canadian Ice Service. We used the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test to determine the statistical significance of the trends and the Theil-Sen approach to estimate their magnitude. Our results indicate statistically significant trends toward earlier breakup in James Bay, along the southern shore of Hudson Bay, and in the western half of Hudson Bay, and toward later freeze-up in the northern and northeastern regions of Hudson Bay. These trends in the annual ice cycle of Hudson Bay coincide with both the regional temperature record and the projections from general circulation models. If this trend toward a longer ice-free season continues, Hudson Bay will soon face important environmental challenges.Chaque année, la Baie d’Hudson connaît un cycle cryogénique complet. La formation de la glace marine commence en fin d’octobre et la baie est habituellement exempte de glace en début d’août. La présence saisonnière du couvert de la glace de la Baie d’Hudson revêt une importance primordiale sur le climat régional. Dans cet article, on étudie la variabilité des dates de formation et de retrait de la glace marine de la Baie d’Hudson dans le but d’identifier des tendances séculaires durant la période 1971 à 2003. Les dates de formation et de retrait de la glace marine ont été cataloguées pour tous les ans dans le cas de 36 endroits à travers la Baie d’Hudson et la Baie James en utilisant des images hebdomadaires publiées par le Service canadien des glaces. Le test non paramétrique Mann Kendall a été utilisé pour déterminer la signification statistique des tendances alors que la méthode de Theil Sen nous a fourni un estimé de l’ampleur de ces mêmes tendances. Notre analyse statistique nous indique qu’il existe des tendances significatives vers une date de déglacement plus avancée dans la Baie James, le long de la côte sud de la Baie d’Hudson, et dans la partie ouest de la Baie d’Hudson. De plus, des tendances significatives vers un gel plus tardif ont été observées dans les régions du nord et du nord-est de la Baie d’Hudson. Ces tendances dans le cycle annuel de glace de la Baie d’Hudson coïncident avec les tendances des températures de la région de même qu’avec les projections des modèles de circulation générale. Si cette tendance vers une durée plus courte du couvert de glace continue, la région de la Baie d’Hudson relèvera des défis environnementaux importants dans un proche avenir

Participation and co-production in climate adaptation:Scope and limits identified from a meta-method review of research with European coastal communities

As climate change impacts increase, there are growing calls for strengthening relationships between researchers and other stakeholders to advance adaptation efforts. Participation and co-production are widely held to be key to such relationships, both intended to open substantive engagement in science and research to non-experts. Gains commonly attributed to participation and co-production include improved understanding of user needs and contexts, enhanced trust, creating actionable knowledge for adaptation planning and decision-making, and other new outcomes and practices supporting adaptation progress. At the same time, scrutiny of existing efforts to use participation and co-production reveals limits and gaps in understanding the conditions and processes required to undertake them in meaningful, appropriate and effective ways. This review assesses such limitations and gaps across the growing volume of research focused on adapting coastal and island communities within Europe. We systematically reviewed 60 peer-reviewed papers, drawing on a novel meta-method review approach to synthesise patterns in participation and co-production implementations, types of outcomes, and the latter’s associations with study research designs. We identify a propensity towards using more simplistic definitions of community, more conventional, extractive research methods in working with study communities, and emphasising knowledge generation over other outcomes. These issues are all limits on participation and co-production effectiveness, and we make recommendations to reduce them. We also recommend further recourse to systematic review methods to aid the development of participation and co-production knowledge for adaptation

Participation and co-production in climate adaptation:Scope and limits identified from a meta-method review of research with European coastal communities

As climate change impacts increase, there are growing calls for strengthening relationships between researchers and other stakeholders to advance adaptation efforts. Participation and co-production are widely held to be key to such relationships, both intended to open substantive engagement in science and research to non-experts. Gains commonly attributed to participation and co-production include improved understanding of user needs and contexts, enhanced trust, creating actionable knowledge for adaptation planning and decision-making, and other new outcomes and practices supporting adaptation progress. At the same time, scrutiny of existing efforts to use participation and co-production reveals limits and gaps in understanding the conditions and processes required to undertake them in meaningful, appropriate and effective ways. This review assesses such limitations and gaps across the growing volume of research focused on adapting coastal and island communities within Europe. We systematically reviewed 60 peer-reviewed papers, drawing on a novel meta-method review approach to synthesise patterns in participation and co-production implementations, types of outcomes, and the latter’s associations with study research designs. We identify a propensity towards using more simplistic definitions of community, more conventional, extractive research methods in working with study communities, and emphasising knowledge generation over other outcomes. These issues are all limits on participation and co-production effectiveness, and we make recommendations to reduce them. We also recommend further recourse to systematic review methods to aid the development of participation and co-production knowledge for adaptation

Assessing coastal vulnerability at the village level using a robust framework, the example of Canacona in South Goa, India

Nigam, R., Luis, A. J., Gagnon, A. S., Vaz, E., Damásio, B., & Kotha, M. (2024). Assessing coastal vulnerability at the village level using a robust framework, the example of Canacona in South Goa, India. ISCIENCE, Article 109129. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2024.109129 --- The first author Mr. Ritwik Nigam, a Ph.D student acknowledges the financial support provided by the University Grant Commission (UGC), Govt. of India, New Delhi, to conduct this research. The authors also thank all the administrative authorities of their respective institutions for their support during field surveys. Bruno Damásio acknowledges the financial support provided by Fundac̨ão para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal (FCT) under the project UIDB/04152/2020 Centro de Investigação em Gestão de Informação (MagIC).Climate change poses a significant threat to coastal regions worldwide. This study presents and applies a modified CVI to assess coastal vulnerability at the village level, focusing on Canacona, a taluka in South Goa, India. It adapts the existing CVI methodology by incorporating additional variables to represent the various dimensions of vulnerability better, resulting in 21 variables split into a Physical Vulnerability Index (PVI) and a Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI). The results show spatial variability in coastal vulnerability across the studied villages, with Agonda and Nagercem-Chaudi found to be highly vulnerable and Loliem to be the least vulnerable. A hydrological modeling approach is also used to compare the CVI of every village with their susceptibility to inundation due to rising sea levels. The result demonstrates the influence of local factors on vulnerability, challenging previous taluka-level assessments given the typical scale upon which adaptation typically takes place.publishersversionpublishe

Climate prediction of El Niño malaria epidemics in north-west Tanzania

Malaria is a significant public health problem in Tanzania. Approximately 16 million malaria cases are reported every year and 100,000 to 125,000 deaths occur. Although most of Tanzania is endemic to malaria, epidemics occur in the highlands, notably in Kagera, a region that was subject to widespread malaria epidemics in 1997 and 1998. This study examined the relationship between climate and malaria incidence in Kagera with the aim of determining whether seasonal forecasts may assist in predicting malaria epidemics. A regression analysis was performed on retrospective malaria and climatic data during each of the two annual malaria seasons to determine the climatic factors influencing malaria incidence. The ability of the DEMETER seasonal forecasting system in predicting the climatic anomalies associated with malaria epidemics was then assessed for each malaria season. It was found that malaria incidence is positively correlated with rainfall during the first season (Oct-Mar) (R-squared = 0.73, p < 0.01). For the second season (Apr-Sep), high malaria incidence was associated with increased rainfall, but also with high maximum temperature during the first rainy season (multiple R-squared = 0.79, p < 0.01). The robustness of these statistical models was tested by excluding the two epidemic years from the regression analysis. DEMETER would have been unable to predict the heavy El Niño rains associated with the 1998 epidemic. Nevertheless, this epidemic could still have been predicted using the temperature forecasts alone. The 1997 epidemic could have been predicted from observed temperatures in the preceding season, but the consideration of the rainfall forecasts would have improved the temperature-only forecasts over the remaining years. These results demonstrate the potential of a seasonal forecasting system in the development of a malaria early warning system in Kagera region

Assessing South Indian Ocean tropical cyclone characteristics in HighResMIP simulations

Several damaging tropical cyclones (TCs) have occurred recently over the South Indian Ocean (SIO) region, causing enormous social and economic losses. Yet, while many studies have examined SIO TC characteristics using observations and reanalysis, only a few have assessed these characteristics specifically for this region in climate models, and fewer have investigated their projections under climate change. Here we do this for a historical (1980-2010) and future (2020-2050) period, using multi-model simulations from the High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project, as well as examine biases in the historical period relative to a reanalysis (ERA5). The models have horizontal resolutions of 25-50 km, which has enabled an improved ability to represent tropical cyclones globally in previous studies. TempestExtremes software is employed to detect tropical storm and cyclone tracks. In cases where TempestExtremes cannot be applied due to a lack of requisite variables in a dataset, we instead examine extreme wind speeds in that dataset. For the historical period, we find considerable variation in model biases compared to ERA5, which itself exhibits realistic spatial patterns of tracks and their monthly distribution. Models do at least agree on positive biases in track frequency east of Madagascar and somewhat in the Mozambique Channel. However, the models and ERA5 only produce category 3 tropical cyclones at best. Wind speeds for 25km resolution models have much larger positive biases than for 50km ones, suggesting the former can simulate even higher-category tropical cyclones. Considerable inter-model variation is also found in track changes between the future and historical periods. No systematic inter-category pattern of change exists, and low signal-to-noise may obscure any such patterns in the limited timespan of available data. Thus, no meaningful conclusions can be drawn regarding changes in track intensity. Nevertheless, track frequency broadly decreases across models for the region, as does accumulated cyclone energy. An east-to-west shift in track location from east of Madagascar toward the Mozambique Channel is also implied by track frequency and wind speed changes. Our findings provide information to potentially improve storm resiliency in this vulnerable region

Climate change impacts on cultural heritage : a literature review

Climate change, as revealed by gradual changes in temperature, precipitation, atmospheric moisture, and wind intensity, as well as sea level rise and changes in the occurrence of extreme events, is already affecting cultural heritage sites. Accordingly, there is a rapidly increasing body of research reporting on the impacts of climatic stressors on cultural heritage and on the assessment of climate change impacts on cultural heritage assets. This review synthesizes the international literature on climate change impacts on tangible cultural heritage by developing hazard-impact diagrams focusing on the impacts of gradual changes in climate on: (1) the cultural heritage exposed to the outside environment, (2) the interiors of historical buildings and their collections, and (3) a third diagram associated with climate change and the impacts due to sudden changes in the natural physical environment (e.g., storm surges, floods and landslides, wildfire) in addition to sea level rise, permafrost thawing, desertification and changes in the properties of the oceans. These diagrams, which depict the relationships between various stressors and their impacts on cultural heritage, will allow other researchers, stakeholders, and potentially decision makers to determine the potential impacts of climate change on a specific cultural heritage asset without a separate examination of the literature. This review thus provides the current state-of-the-art on the impacts of climate change on the tangible, built heritage, that is, monuments, archeological sites, historical buildings, as well as their interiors and the collections they hold, highlights the limitations of previous research, and provides recommendations for further studies.peer-reviewe

Transformation in a changing climate: a research agenda

The concept of transformation in relation to climate and other global change is increasingly receiving attention. The concept provides important opportunities to help examine how rapid and fundamental change to address contemporary global challenges can be facilitated. This paper contributes to discussions about transformation by providing a social science, arts and humanities perspective to open up discussion and set out a research agenda about what it means to transform and the dimensions, limitations and possibilities for transformation. Key focal areas include: (1) change theories, (2) knowing whether transformation has occurred or is occurring; (3) knowledge production and use; (4), governance; (5) how dimensions of social justice inform transformation; (6) the limits of human nature; (7) the role of the utopian impulse; (8) working with the present to create new futures; and (9) human consciousness. In addition to presenting a set of research questions around these themes the paper highlights that much deeper engagement with complex social processes is required; that there are vast opportunities for social science, humanities and the arts to engage more directly with the climate challenge; that there is a need for a massive upscaling of efforts to understand and shape desired forms of change; and that, in addition to helping answer important questions about how to facilitate change, a key role of the social sciences, humanities and the arts in addressing climate change is to critique current societal patterns and to open up new thinking. Through such critique and by being more explicit about what is meant by transformation, greater opportunities will be provided for opening up a dialogue about change, possible futures and about what it means to re-shape the way in which people live

Can nature-based solutions contribute to water security in Bhopal?

Bhojtal, a large man-made lake bordering the city of Bhopal (Madhya Pradesh state, central India), is important for the city’s water supply, connoted the lifeline of the city. Despite the dry though not arid and markedly seasonal climate, soil impermeability hampers infiltration into the complex geology underlying the Bhojtal catchment. Rural communities in the catchment are nonetheless high dependent on underlying aquifers. This paper develops baseline understanding of trends in the ecology, water quality and uses of Bhojtal, discussing their implications for the long-term wellbeing of the Bhopal city region. It highlights increasing dependency on water diverted from out-of-catchment sources, and also abstraction across the Bhojtal catchment in excess of replenishment that is depressing groundwater and contributing to reported declining lake level and water quality. Despite some nature-based management initiatives, evidence suggests little progress in haltering on-going groundwater depression and declines in lake water level and quality. Significant declines in ecosystem services produced by Bhojtal are likely without intervention, a major concern given the high dependency of people in the Bhopal region on Bhojtal for their water supply and socio-economic and cultural wellbeing. Over-reliance on appropriation of water from increasingly remote sources is currently compensating for lack of attention to measures protecting or regenerating local resources that may provide greater resilience and regional self-sufficiency. Improved knowledge of catchment hydrogeology on a highly localised scale could improve the targeting and efficiency of water harvesting and other management interventions in the Bhojtal catchment, and their appropriate hybridisation with engineered solutions, protecting the catchment from unintended impacts of water extraction or increasing its carrying capacity, and also providing resilience to rising population and climate change. Ecosystem service assessment provides useful insights into the breadth of benefits of improved management of Bhojtal and its catchment