A Hierarchical Spatio-Temporal Statistical Model Motivated by Glaciology

In this paper, we extend and analyze a Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal model for physical systems. A novelty is to model the discrepancy between the output of a computer simulator for a physical process and the actual process values with a multivariate random walk. For computational efficiency, linear algebra for bandwidth limited matrices is utilized, and first-order emulator inference allows for the fast emulation of a numerical partial differential equation (PDE) solver. A test scenario from a physical system motivated by glaciology is used to examine the speed and accuracy of the computational methods used, in addition to the viability of modeling assumptions. We conclude by discussing how the model and associated methodology can be applied in other physical contexts besides glaciology.Comment: Revision accepted for publication by the Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistic

Spring warming in Yukon mountains is not amplified by the snow albedo feedback

Decreasing spring snow cover may amplify Arctic warming through the snow albedo feedback. To examine the impact of snowmelt on increasing temperature we used a 5,000 m elevation gradient in Yukon, Canada, extending from valley-bottom conifer forests, through middle elevation tundra, to high elevation icefields, to compare validated downscaled reanalysis air temperature patterns across elevational bands characterized by different patterns of spring snowmelt. From 2000 to 2014 we observed surface warming of 0.01 °C/a·1,000 m in May (0.14 °C/a at 1,000 m to 0.19 °C/a at 5,000 m), and uniform cooling of 0.09 °C/a in June at all elevations. May temperature trends across elevationally dependent land cover types were highly correlated with each other despite large variations in albedo and snow cover trends. Furthermore, a clear dependency of infrared skin temperature on snow cover mediated albedo decline was observed in tundra, but this was insufficient to influence average diurnal air temperature. We observed negative June temperature trends which we attribute to increasing daytime cloud cover because albedo and snow cover trends were unchanging. We conclude that 8-day and monthly averaged Spring air temperature trends are responding to a synoptic external forcing that is much stronger than the snow albedo feedback in sub-Arctic mountains

A Bayesian hierarchical model for glacial dynamics based on the shallow ice approximation and its evaluation using analytical solutions

Bayesian hierarchical modeling can assist the study of glacial dynamics and ice flow properties. This approach will allow glaciologists to make fully probabilistic predictions for the thickness of a glacier at unobserved spatiotemporal coordinates, and it will also allow for the derivation of posterior probability distributions for key physical parameters such as ice viscosity and basal sliding. The goal of this paper is to develop a proof of concept for a Bayesian hierarchical model constructed, which uses exact analytical solutions for the shallow ice approximation (SIA) introduced by Bueler et al. (2005). A suite of test simulations utilizing these exact solutions suggests that this approach is able to adequately model numerical errors and produce useful physical parameter posterior distributions and predictions. A byproduct of the development of the Bayesian hierarchical model is the derivation of a novel finite difference method for solving the SIA partial differential equation (PDE). An additional novelty of this work is the correction of numerical errors induced through a numerical solution using a statistical model. This error-correcting process models numerical errors that accumulate forward in time and spatial variation of numerical errors between the dome, interior, and margin of a glacier.The Icelandic Research Fund (RANNIS) is thanked for funding this research.Peer Reviewe

A Hierarchical Spatiotemporal Statistical Model Motivated by Glaciology

This is a post-peer-review, pre-copyedit version of an article published in Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics. The final authenticated version is available online at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13253-019-00367-1In this paper, we extend and analyze a Bayesian hierarchical spatiotemporal model for physical systems. A novelty is to model the discrepancy between the output of a computer simulator for a physical process and the actual process values with a multivariate random walk. For computational efficiency, linear algebra for bandwidth limited matrices is utilized, and first-order emulator inference allows for the fast emulation of a numerical partial differential equation (PDE) solver. A test scenario from a physical system motivated by glaciology is used to examine the speed and accuracy of the computational methods used, in addition to the viability of modeling assumptions. We conclude by discussing how the model and associated methodology can be applied in other physical contexts besides glaciology.Icelandic Centre for Research (152457).Peer reviewe

Non-surface mass balance of glaciers in Iceland

Publisher's version (útgefin grein)Non-surface mass balance is non-negligible for glaciers in Iceland. Several Icelandic glaciers are in the neo-volcanic zone where a combination of geothermal activity, volcanic eruptions and geothermal heat flux much higher than the global average lead to basal melting close to 150 mm w.e. a−1 for the Mýrdalsjökull ice cap and 75 mm w.e. a−1 for the largest ice cap, Vatnajökull. Energy dissipation in the flow of water and ice is also rather large for the high-precipitation, temperate glaciers of Iceland resulting in internal and basal melting of 20–150 mm w.e. a−1. The total non-surface melting of glaciers in Iceland in 1995–2019 was 45–375 mm w.e. a−1 on average for the main ice caps, and was largest for Mýrdalsjökull, the south side of Vatnajökull and Eyjafjallajökull. Geothermal melting, volcanic eruptions and the energy dissipation in the flow of water and ice, as well as calving, all contribute, and thus these components should be considered in mass-balance studies. For comparison, the average mass balance of glaciers in Iceland since 1995 is −500 to −1500 mm w.e. a−1. The non-surface mass balance corresponds to a total runoff contribution of 2.1 km3 a−1 of water from Iceland.Financial support for lidar mapping of glaciers in Iceland in 2008–2012 was provided by the Icelandic Research Fund (163391-052), the Landsvirkjun (National Power Company of Iceland) Research Fund, the Icelandic Road Administration, the Reykjavík Energy Environmental and Energy Research Fund, the National Land Survey of Iceland, the Klima- og Luftgruppen (KoL) research fund of the Nordic Council of Ministers, and the Vatnajökull National Park. The acquisition of the Hofsjökull 2013 DEM was funded by AlpS GmbH and the University of Innsbruck. The acquisition of the Langjökull 2013 DEM was funded by NERC grant IG 13/12 and the DEM was provided by Ian Willis at the Scott Polar Research Institute. The work on estimating geothermal and volcanic power is based on funding from many sources, including the Research Fund of the University of Iceland, ISAVIA (the Icelandic Aviation Service), the Icelandic Road Administration and Landsvirkjun; logistical support has been provided by the Iceland Glaciological Society.Peer Reviewe

Mycoplasma hyorhinis-contaminated cell lines activate primary innate immune cells via a protease-sensitive factor

Mycoplasma are a frequent and occult contaminant of cell cultures, whereby these prokaryotic organisms can modify many aspects of cell physiology, rendering experiments that are conducted with such contaminated cells problematic. Chronic Mycoplasma contamination in human monocytic cells lines has been associated with suppressed Toll-like receptor (TLR) function. In contrast, we show here that components derived from a Mycoplasma hyorhinis-infected cell line can activate innate immunity in non-infected primary immune cells. Release of pro-inflammatory cytokines such as IL-6 by dendritic cells in response to Mycoplasma hyorhinis-infected cell components was critically dependent on the adapter protein MyD88 but only partially on TLR2. Unlike canonical TLR2 signaling that is triggered in response to the detection of Mycoplasma infection, innate immune activation by components of Mycoplasma-infected cells was inhibited by chloroquine treatment and sensitive to protease treatment. We further show that in plasmacytoid dendritic cells, soluble factors from Mycoplasma hyorhinis-infected cells induce the production of large amounts of IFN-α. We conclude that Mycoplasma hyorhinis-infected cell lines release protein factors that can potently activate co-cultured innate immune cells via a previously unrecognized mechanism, thus limiting the validity of such co-culture experiments

Gradual caldera collapse at Bárdarbunga volcano, Iceland, regulated by lateral magma outflow

Large volcanic eruptions on Earth commonly occur with a collapse of the roof of a crustal magma reservoir, forming a caldera. Only a few such collapses occur per century, and the lack of detailed observations has obscured insight into the mechanical interplay between collapse and eruption.We usemultiparameter geophysical and geochemical data to show that the 110-squarekilometer and 65-meter-deep collapse of Bárdarbunga caldera in 2014-2015 was initiated through withdrawal of magma, and lateral migration through a 48-kilometers-long dike, from a 12-kilometers deep reservoir. Interaction between the pressure exerted by the subsiding reservoir roof and the physical properties of the subsurface flow path explain the gradual, nearexponential decline of both collapse rate and the intensity of the 180-day-long eruption.</p