Testing the bivariate distribution of daily equity returns using copulas. An application to the Spanish stock market

In this paper we deal with the identification of dependencies between time series of equity returns. Marginal distribution functions are assumed to be known, and a bivariate chi-square test of fit is applied in a fully parametric copula approach. Several families of copulas are fitted and compared with Spanish stock market data. The results show that the t-copula generally outperforms other dependence structures, and highlight the difficulty in adjusting a significant number of bivariate data series.bivariate chi-square statistic, risk management., copulas, daily equity returns

Does anemia affect the predictive ability of bleeding risk scores in patients with acute coronary syndromes?

Introduction and objective: Anemia is a common comorbidity in patients with acute coronary syndromes (ACS), and is associated with higher risk for both bleeding and ischemic complications. We aimed to assess the predictive ability of bleeding risk scores (Can Rapid risk stratification of Unstable angina patients Suppress ADverse outcomes with Early implementation of the ACC/AHA guidelines [CRUSADE], Mehran and Acute Coronary Treatment and Intervention Outcomes Network [ACTION]) in ACS patients with anemia. Methods: All consecutive ACS patients were prospectively included. The primary outcome was in-hospital major bleeding according to the CRUSADE, Mehran and ACTION definitions. Anemia was defined as hemoglobin <130 g/l in men and <120 g/l in women. The predictive ability of the bleeding risk scores was assessed by binary logistic regression, calculating receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and their corresponding area under the curve (AUC). Results: We included 2255 patients, mean age 62.4 years. Anemia was present in 550 patients (24.4%). Patients with anemia had a significantly higher prevalence of comorbidities. The three bleeding risk scores adequately predicted major bleeding in the whole cohort. No significant differences were observed regarding the predictive ability of each of the scores in patients with and without anemia (CRUSADE: AUC 0.73 without anemia vs. 0.74 with anemia, p=0.913; ACTION: AUC 0.68 without anemia vs. 0.73 with anemia, p=0.353; Mehran: AUC 0.69 without anemia vs. 0.61 with anemia, p=0.210). Only the Mehran score showed significantly lower predictive ability in patients with hemoglobin <11 g/dl (AUC 0.51, p=0.044). Conclusions: Anemia was a common comorbidity in patients with ACS from our series. Currently available bleeding risk scores showed an adequate predictive ability in patients with mild anemia

Clinical and prognostic implications of delirium in elderly patients with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes

Altres ajuts: This study was supported by the funding from the Spanish Society of Cardiology.Elderly patients with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes (NSTE-ACS) may present delirium but its clinical relevance is unknown. This study aimed at determining the clinical associated factors, and prognostic implications of delirium in old-aged patients admitted for NSTE-ACS. LONGEVO-SCA is a prospective multicenter registry including unselected patients with NSTE-ACS aged ≥ 80 years. Clinical variables and a complete geriatric evaluation were assessed during hospitalization. The association between delirium and 6-month mortality was assessed by a Cox regression model weighted for a propensity score including the potential confounding variables. We also analysed its association with 6-month bleeding and cognitive or functional decline. Among 527 patients included, thirty-seven (7%) patients presented delirium during the hospitalization. Delirium was more frequent in patients with dementia or depression and in those from nursing homes (27.0% vs. 3.1%, 24.3% vs. 11.6%, and 11.1% vs. 2.2%, respectively; all P < 0.05). Delirium was significantly associated with in-hospital infections (27.0% vs. 5.3%, P < 0.001) and usage of diuretics (70.3% vs. 49.8%, P = 0.02). Patients with delirium had longer hospitalizations [median 8.5 (5.5-14) vs. 6.0 (4.0-10) days, P = 0.02] and higher incidence of 6-month bleeding and mortality (32.3% vs. 10.0% and 24.3% vs. 10.8%, respectively; both P < 0.05) but similar cognitive or functional decline. Delirium was independently associated with 6-month mortality (HR = 1.47, 95% CI: 1.02-2.13, P = 0.04) and 6-month bleeding events (OR = 2.87; 95% CI: 1.98-4.16, P < 0.01). In-hospital delirium in elderly patients with NSTE-ACS is associated with some preventable risk factors and it is an independent predictor of 6-month mortality

Clinical picture, management and risk stratification in patients with cardiogenic shock: does gender matter?

Background: Early recognition and risk stratification are crucial in cardiogenic shock (CS). A lower adherence to recommendations has been described in women with cardiovascular diseases. Little information exists about disparities in clinical picture, management and performance of risk stratification tools according to gender in patients with CS. Methods: Data from the multicenter Red-Shock registry were used. All consecutive patients with CS were included. Both CardShock and IABP-SHOCK II risk scores were calculated. The primary end-point was in-hospital mortality. The discriminative ability of both scores according to gender was assessed by binary logistic regression, calculating Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and the corresponding area under the curve (AUC). Results: A total of 793 patients were included, of whom 222 (28%) were female. Women were significantly older and had a lower proportion of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and prior myocardial infarction. CS was less often related to acute coronary syndromes (ACS) in women. The use of vasoactive drugs, renal replacement therapy, invasive ventilation, therapeutic hypothermia and mechanical circulatory support was similar between both groups. In-hospital mortality was 346/793 (43.6%). Mortality was not significantly different according to gender (p = 0.194). Cardshock risk score showed a good ability for predicting in-hospital mortality both in man (AUC 0.69) and women (AUC 0.735). Likewise, the IABP-II successfully predicted in-hospital mortality in both groups (man: AUC 0.693; women: AUC 0.722). Conclusions: No significant differences were observed regarding management and in-hospital mortality according to gender. Both the CardShock and IABP-II risk scores depicted a good ability for predicting mortality also in women with CS

Patient-reported outcomes in relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma treated with melflufen plus dexamethasone : analyses from the Phase II HORIZON study

Relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma (RRMM) is known to have a high burden of disease and complications associated with refractoriness to prior lines of therapy. Severe pain and fatigue symptoms and impairments in physical and emotional functioning have been strongly linked to reduced health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in patients with RRMM. Assessment of patient reported-outcome measures from the pivotal, Phase II HORIZON study (OP-106; NCT02963493) in patients with RRMM (n = 64) demonstrated that melphalan flufenamide (melflufen) plus dexamethasone treatment preserved HRQoL. Patients had clinically meaningful improvements, even after eight treatment cycles, in relevant scales such as global health status/QoL, physical functioning, emotional functioning, pain, and fatigue. Patients with triple-class-refractory disease (n = 50) displayed similar improvements. Patient-reported outcome deterioration was delayed for a substantial amount of time in patients who experienced a response to melflufen plus dexamethasone treatment relative to patients who did not experience a response. These findings support the notion that treatment with melflufen plus dexamethasone may sustain or improve HRQoL over time in patients with RRMM, including in patients with triple-class-refractory disease for whom outcomes are generally worse. The clinical benefits observed in patients from the HORIZON trial are encouraging and supportive of translation into real-world practice

Melflufen and dexamethasone in heavily pretreated relapsed and refractory multiple myeloma

Clinical trial information: NCT02963493Altres ajuts: Oncopeptides A

Melflufen and dexamethasone in heavily pretreated relapsed and refractory multiple myeloma

PURPOSE Melphalan flufenamide (melflufen) is a first-in-class peptide-drug conjugate that targets aminopeptidases and rapidly and selectively releases alkylating agents into tumor cells. The phase II HORIZON trial evaluated the efficacy of melflufen plus dexamethasone in relapsed and refractory multiple myeloma (RRMM), a population with an important unmet medical need. PATIENTS AND METHODS Patients with RRMM refractory to pomalidomide and/or an anti-CD38 monoclonal antibody received melflufen 40 mg intravenously on day 1 of each 28-day cycle plus once weekly oral dexamethasone at a dose of 40 mg (20 mg in patients older than 75 years). The primary end point was overall response rate (partial response or better) assessed by the investigator and confirmed by independent review. Secondary end points included duration of response, progression-free survival, overall survival, and safety. The primary analysis is complete with long-term follow-up ongoing. RESULTS Of 157 patients (median age 65 years; median five prior lines of therapy) enrolled and treated, 119 patients (76%) had triple-class–refractory disease, 55 (35%) had extramedullary disease, and 92 (59%) were refractory to previous alkylator therapy. The overall response rate was 29% in the all-treated population, with 26% in the triple-class–refractory population. In the all-treated population, median duration of response was 5.5 months, median progression-free survival was 4.2 months, and median overall survival was 11.6 months at a median follow-up of 14 months. Grade $ 3 treatment-emergent adverse events occurred in 96% of patients, most commonly neutropenia (79%), thrombocytopenia (76%), and anemia (43%). Pneumonia (10%) was the most common grade 3/4 nonhematologic event. Thrombocytopenia and bleeding (both grade 3/4 but fully reversible) occurred concomitantly in four patients. GI events, reported in 97 patients (62%), were predominantly grade 1/2 (93%); none were grade 4. CONCLUSION Melflufen plus dexamethasone showed clinically meaningful efficacy and a manageable safety profile in patients with heavily pretreated RRMM, including those with triple-class–refractory and extramedullary disease

Depth of response in multiple myeloma: A pooled analysis of three PETHEMA/GEM clinical trials

On behalf of the GEM (Grupo Español de Mieloma)/PETHEMA (Programa para el Estudio de la Terapéutica en Hemopatías Malignas) Cooperative Study Group.[Purpose]: To perform a critical analysis on the impact of depth of response in newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (MM). [Patients and Methods]: Data were analyzed from 609 patients who were enrolled in the GEM (Grupo Español de Mieloma) 2000 and GEM2005MENOS65 studies for transplant-eligible MM and the GEM2010MAS65 clinical trial for elderly patients with MM who had minimal residual disease (MRD) assessments 9 months after study enrollment. Median follow-up of the series was 71 months. [Results]: Achievement of complete remission (CR) in the absence of MRD negativity was not associated with prolonged progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) compared with near-CR or partial response (median PFS, 27, 27, and 29 months, respectively; median OS, 59, 64, and 65 months, respectively). MRD-negative status was strongly associated with prolonged PFS (median, 63 months; P operational cure> was high; median PFS was 12 years, and the 10-year OS rate was 94%. [Conclusion]: Our results demonstrate that MRD-negative status surpasses the prognostic value of CR achievement for PFS and OS across the disease spectrum, regardless of the type of treatment or patient risk group. MRD negativity should be considered as one of the most relevant end points for transplant-eligible and elderly fit patients with MM.Supported by the Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red – Area de Oncologia - del Instituto de Salud Carlos III (CIBERONC; CB16/12/00369; CB16/12/00400; CB16/12/00233; CB16/12/00284), formerly named as Cooperative Research Thematic Network (Grants No. RD12/0036/0058, RD12/0036/0048, RD12/0036/0046, and RD12/0036/0061) of the Red de Cancer (Cancer Network of Excellence); Instituto de Salud Carlos III/Subdirección General de Investigación Sanitaria; funded in part by the European Regional Development Fund (FIS No. 98/1239, 00/10160, 01/0089, 02/0089, 02/0905, G03/136, PI051284, PI06033906/1354, PS09/01897/01370, PI12/01761, PI12/02311, PI13/01469, PI14/01867, G03/136); Sara Borrell (No. CD13/00340); Asociación Española Contra el Cáncer (No. GCB120981SAN); and Federación Española de Enfermedades Raras. Also supported internationally by the Black Swan Research Initiative of the International Myeloma Foundation and the European Research Council 2015 Starting Grant (MYELOMANEXT).Peer Reviewe

Depth of Response in Multiple Myeloma: A Pooled Analysis of Three PETHEMA/GEM Clinical Trials

[EN] Purpose—To perform a critical analysis on the impact of depth of response in newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (MM). Patients and Methods—Data were analyzed from 609 patients who were enrolled in the GEM (Grupo Español de Mieloma) 2000 and GEM2005MENOS65 studies for transplant-eligible MM and the GEM2010MAS65 clinical trial for elderly patients with MM who had minimal residual disease (MRD) assessments 9 months after study enrollment. Median follow-up of the series was 71 months. Results—Achievement of complete remission (CR) in the absence of MRD negativity was not associated with prolonged progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) compared with near-CR or partial response (median PFS, 27, 27, and 29 months, respectively; median OS, 59, 64, and 65 months, respectively). MRD-negative status was strongly associated with prolonged PFS (median, 63 months; P < .001) and OS (median not reached; P < .001) overall and in subgroups defined by prior transplantation, disease stage, and cytogenetics, with prognostic superiority of MRD negativity versus CR particularly evident in patients with high-risk cytogenetics. Accordingly, Harrell C statistics showed higher discrimination for both PFS and OS in Cox models that included MRD (as opposed to CR) for response assessment. Superior MRD-negative rates after different induction regimens anticipated prolonged PFS. Among 34 MRD-negative patients with MM and a phenotypic pattern of bone marrow involvement similar to monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance at diagnosis, the probability of “operational cure” was high; median PFS was 12 years, and the 10-year OS rate was 94%. Conclusion—Our results demonstrate that MRD-negative status surpasses the prognostic value of CR achievement for PFS and OS across the disease spectrum, regardless of the type of treatment or patient risk group. MRD negativity should be considered as one of the most relevant end points for transplant-eligible and elderly fit patients with MM

Bortezomib plus melphalan and prednisone in elderly untreated patients with multiple myeloma: updated time-to-events results and prognostic factors for time to progression

New treatment options offering enhanced activity in elderly, newly diagnosed patients with multiple myeloma are required. One strategy is to combine melphalan and prednisone with novel agents. We previously reported an 89% response rate, including 32% complete responses and 11% near complete responses, in our phase 1/2 study of bortezomib plus melphalan and prednisone (VMP) in 60 newly diagnosed multiple myeloma patients with a median age of 75 years. Here, we report updated time-to-events data and the impact of poor prognosis factors on outcome