Forecasting malaria incidence based on monthly case reports and environmental factors in Karuzi, Burundi, 1997–2003

BACKGROUND: The objective of this work was to develop a model to predict malaria incidence in an area of unstable transmission by studying the association between environmental variables and disease dynamics. METHODS: The study was carried out in Karuzi, a province in the Burundi highlands, using time series of monthly notifications of malaria cases from local health facilities, data from rain and temperature records, and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) methodology, a model showing the relation between monthly notifications of malaria cases and the environmental variables was developed. RESULTS: The best forecasting model (R2adj = 82%, p < 0.0001 and 93% forecasting accuracy in the range +/- 4 cases per 100 inhabitants) included the NDVI, mean maximum temperature, rainfall and number of malaria cases in the preceding month. CONCLUSION: This model is a simple and useful tool for producing reasonably reliable forecasts of the malaria incidence rate in the study area

Energy Estimation of Cosmic Rays with the Engineering Radio Array of the Pierre Auger Observatory

The Auger Engineering Radio Array (AERA) is part of the Pierre Auger Observatory and is used to detect the radio emission of cosmic-ray air showers. These observations are compared to the data of the surface detector stations of the Observatory, which provide well-calibrated information on the cosmic-ray energies and arrival directions. The response of the radio stations in the 30 to 80 MHz regime has been thoroughly calibrated to enable the reconstruction of the incoming electric field. For the latter, the energy deposit per area is determined from the radio pulses at each observer position and is interpolated using a two-dimensional function that takes into account signal asymmetries due to interference between the geomagnetic and charge-excess emission components. The spatial integral over the signal distribution gives a direct measurement of the energy transferred from the primary cosmic ray into radio emission in the AERA frequency range. We measure 15.8 MeV of radiation energy for a 1 EeV air shower arriving perpendicularly to the geomagnetic field. This radiation energy -- corrected for geometrical effects -- is used as a cosmic-ray energy estimator. Performing an absolute energy calibration against the surface-detector information, we observe that this radio-energy estimator scales quadratically with the cosmic-ray energy as expected for coherent emission. We find an energy resolution of the radio reconstruction of 22% for the data set and 17% for a high-quality subset containing only events with at least five radio stations with signal.Comment: Replaced with published version. Added journal reference and DO

Measurement of the Radiation Energy in the Radio Signal of Extensive Air Showers as a Universal Estimator of Cosmic-Ray Energy

We measure the energy emitted by extensive air showers in the form of radio emission in the frequency range from 30 to 80 MHz. Exploiting the accurate energy scale of the Pierre Auger Observatory, we obtain a radiation energy of 15.8 \pm 0.7 (stat) \pm 6.7 (sys) MeV for cosmic rays with an energy of 1 EeV arriving perpendicularly to a geomagnetic field of 0.24 G, scaling quadratically with the cosmic-ray energy. A comparison with predictions from state-of-the-art first-principle calculations shows agreement with our measurement. The radiation energy provides direct access to the calorimetric energy in the electromagnetic cascade of extensive air showers. Comparison with our result thus allows the direct calibration of any cosmic-ray radio detector against the well-established energy scale of the Pierre Auger Observatory.Comment: Replaced with published version. Added journal reference and DOI. Supplemental material in the ancillary file

Multiple Scenario Generation of Subsurface Models:Consistent Integration of Information from Geophysical and Geological Data throuh Combination of Probabilistic Inverse Problem Theory and Geostatistics

Neutrinos with energies above 1017 eV are detectable with the Surface Detector Array of the Pierre Auger Observatory. The identification is efficiently performed for neutrinos of all flavors interacting in the atmosphere at large zenith angles, as well as for Earth-skimming \u3c4 neutrinos with nearly tangential trajectories relative to the Earth. No neutrino candidates were found in 3c 14.7 years of data taken up to 31 August 2018. This leads to restrictive upper bounds on their flux. The 90% C.L. single-flavor limit to the diffuse flux of ultra-high-energy neutrinos with an E\u3bd-2 spectrum in the energy range 1.0 7 1017 eV -2.5 7 1019 eV is E2 dN\u3bd/dE\u3bd &lt; 4.4 7 10-9 GeV cm-2 s-1 sr-1, placing strong constraints on several models of neutrino production at EeV energies and on the properties of the sources of ultra-high-energy cosmic rays

Measurement of the Fluctuations in the Number of Muons in Extensive Air Showers with the Pierre Auger Observatory

The successful installation, commissioning, and operation of the Pierre Auger Observatory would not have been possible without the strong commitment and effort from the technical and administrative staff in Malargue. We are very grateful to the following agencies and organizations for financial support: Argentina-Comision Nacional de Energia Atomica, Agencia Nacional de Promocion Cientifica y Tecnologica (ANPCyT), Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cientificas y Tecnicas (CONICET), Gobierno de la Provincia de Mendoza, Municipalidad de Malargue, NDM Holdings and Valle Las Lenas; in gratitude for their continuing cooperation over land access; Australia-the Australian Research Council; BrazilConselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cientifico e Tecnologico (CNPq), Financiadora de Estudos e Projetos (FINEP), Fundacao de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado de Rio de Janeiro (FAPERJ), Sao Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP) Grants No. 2019/10151-2, No. 2010/07359-6, and No. 1999/05404-3, Ministerio da Ciencia, Tecnologia, Inovacoes e Comunicacoes (MCTIC); Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech RepublicGrants No. MSMT CR LTT18004, No. LM2015038, No. LM2018102, No. CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16_013/0001402, No. CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/18_046/0016010, and No. CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/17_049/0008422; France-Centre de Calcul IN2P3/CNRS, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Conseil Regional Ile-de-France, Departement Physique Nucl ' eaire et Corpusculaire (PNC-IN2P3/CNRS), Departement Sciences de l'Univers (SDU-INSU/CNRS), Institut Lagrange de Paris (ILP) Grant No. LABEX ANR-10-LABX-63 within the Investissements d'Avenir Programme Grant No. ANR11-IDEX-0004-02; Germany-Bundesministerium fur Bildung und Forschung (BMBF), Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG), Finanzministerium Baden-Wurttemberg, Helmholtz Alliance for Astroparticle Physics (HAP), Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft Deutscher Forschungszentren (HGF), Ministerium fur Innovation, Wissenschaft und Forschung des Landes Nordrhein-Westfalen, Ministerium fur Wissenschaft, Forschung und Kunst des Landes Baden-Wurttemberg; Italy-Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare (INFN), Istituto Nazionale di Astrofisica (INAF), Ministero dell'Istruzione, dell'Universita e della Ricerca (MIUR), CETEMPS Center of Excellence, Ministero degli Affari Esteri (MAE); Mexico-Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologia (CONACYT) Grant No. 167733, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico (UNAM), PAPIIT DGAPA-UNAM; The Netherlands-Ministry of Education, Culture and Science, Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO), Dutch national e-infrastructure with the support of SURF Cooperative; Poland-Ministry of Science and Higher Education, Grant No. DIR/WK/2018/11, National Science Centre, Grants No. 2013/08/M/ST9/00322, No. 2016/23/B/ST9/01635, and No. HARMONIA 5-2013/10/M/ST9/00062, UMO-2016/22/M/ST9/00198; Portugal -Portuguese national funds and FEDER funds within Programa Operacional Factores de Competitividade through Fundacao para a Ciencia e a Tecnologia (COMPETE); Romania-Romanian Ministry of Education and Research, the Program Nucleu within MCI (PN19150201/16N/2019 and PN19060102), and project PN-III-P1-1.2-PCCDI-2017-0839/19PCCDI/2018 within PNCDI III; Slovenia-Slovenian Research Agency, Grants No. P1-0031, No. P1-0385, No. I00033, No. N1-0111; Spain-Ministerio de Economia, Industria y Competitividad (FPA2017-85114-P and FPA2017-85197-P), Xunta de Galicia (ED431C 2017/07), Junta de Andalucia (SOMM17/6104/UGR), Feder Funds, RENATA Red Nacional Tematica de Astroparticulas (FPA2015-68783-REDT), and Maria de Maeztu Unit of Excellence (MDM-2016-0692); U.S.Department of Energy, Awards No. DE-AC0207CH11359, No. DE-FR02-04ER41300, No. DE-FG0299ER41107, and No. DE-SC0011689, National Science Foundation, Grant No. 0450696, The Grainger Foundation, Marie Curie-IRSES/EPLANET, European Particle Physics Latin American Network, and UNESCO.We present the first measurement of the fluctuations in the number of muons in extensive air showers produced by ultrahigh energy cosmic rays. We find that the measured fluctuations are in good agreement with predictions from air shower simulations. This observation provides new insights into the origin of the previously reported deficit of muons in air shower simulations and constrains models of hadronic interactions at ultrahigh energies. Our measurement is compatible with the muon deficit originating from small deviations in the predictions from hadronic interaction models of particle production that accumulate as the showers develop.Argentina-Comision Nacional de Energia AtomicaANPCyTConsejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cientificas y Tecnicas (CONICET)Gobierno de la Provincia de MendozaMunicipalidad de MalargueNDM HoldingsValle Las LenasAustralian Research CouncilConselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cientifico e Tecnologico (CNPQ)Fundacao de Apoio a Pesquisa do Distrito Federal (FAPDF)Financiadora de Inovacao e Pesquisa (Finep)Fundacao Carlos Chagas Filho de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado do Rio De Janeiro (FAPERJ)Fundacao de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado de Sao Paulo (FAPESP) 2019/10151-2 2010/07359-6 1999/05404-3Ministerio da Ciencia, Tecnologia, Inovacoes e Comunicacoes (MCTIC)Ministry of Education, Youth & Sports - Czech Republic MSMT CR LTT18004 LM2015038 LM2018102 CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16_013/0001402 CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/18_046/0016010 CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/17_049/0008422France-Centre de Calcul IN2P3/CNRSCentre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)Region Ile-de-FranceCentre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)Departement Sciences de l'Univers (SDU-INSU/CNRS)French National Research Agency (ANR) LABEX ANR-10-LABX-63 ANR11-IDEX-0004-02Federal Ministry of Education & Research (BMBF)German Research Foundation (DFG)Finanzministerium Baden-WurttembergHelmholtz Alliance for Astroparticle Physics (HAP)Helmholtz AssociationMinisterium fur Innovation, Wissenschaft und Forschung des Landes Nordrhein-WestfalenMinisterium fur Wissenschaft, Forschung und Kunst des Landes Baden-WurttembergItaly-Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare (INFN)Istituto Nazionale Astrofisica (INAF)Ministry of Education, Universities and Research (MIUR)CETEMPS Center of ExcellenceMinistry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation (Italy)Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologia (CONACyT) 167733Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico (UNAM), PAPIIT DGAPA-UNAMNetherlands-Ministry of Education, Culture and ScienceNetherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO)Dutch national e-infrastructureSURF CooperativePoland-Ministry of Science and Higher Education DIR/WK/2018/11National Science Centre, Poland 2013/08/M/ST9/00322 2016/23/B/ST9/01635 HARMONIA 5-2013/10/M/ST9/00062 UMO-2016/22/M/ST9/00198Portugal -Portuguese national fundsFEDER funds within Programa Operacional Factores de Competitividade through Fundacao para a Ciencia e a Tecnologia (COMPETE)Romania-Romanian Ministry of Education and Research, the Program Nucleu within MCI PN19150201/16N/2019 PN19060102Romania-Romanian Ministry of Educatio n and Research, the Program Nucleu within PNCDI III PN-III-P1-1.2-PCCDI-2017-0839/19PCCDI/2018Slovenian Research Agency - Slovenia P1-0031 P1-0385 I00033 N1-0111Spain-Ministerio de Economia, Industria y Competitividad FPA2017-85114-P FPA2017-85197-PXunta de Galicia European Commission ED431C 2017/07Junta de Andalucia SOMM17/6104/UGREuropean CommissionRENATA Red Nacional Tematica de Astroparticulas FPA2015-68783-REDTMaria de Maeztu Unit of Excellence MDM-2016-0692United States Department of Energy (DOE) DE-AC0207CH11359 DE-FR02-04ER41300 DE-FG0299ER41107 DE-SC0011689National Science Foundation (NSF) 0450696Grainger FoundationMarie Curie-IRSES/EPLANETEuropean Particle Physics Latin American NetworkUNESC

Number of Hajj Pilgrims Departured(1) to the Holyland of Mecca by Province, 2012–2015

The azimuthal asymmetry in the risetime of signals in Auger surface detector stations is a source of information on shower development. The azimuthal asymmetry is due to a combination of the longitudinal evolution of the shower and geometrical effects related to the angles of incidence of the particles into the detectors. The magnitude of the effect depends upon the zenith angle and state of development of the shower and thus provides a novel observable, (secθ)max, sensitive to the mass composition of cosmic rays above 3×1018 eV. By comparing measurements with predictions from shower simulations, we find for both of our adopted models of hadronic physics (QGSJETII-04 and EPOS-LHC) an indication that the mean cosmic-ray mass increases slowly with energy, as has been inferred from other studies. However, the mass estimates are dependent on the shower model and on the range of distance from the shower core selected. Thus the method has uncovered further deficiencies in our understanding of shower modeling that must be resolved before the mass composition can be inferred from (secθ)max