Integrating evolution into ecological modelling: accommodating phenotypic changes in agent based models.

PMCID: PMC3733718This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.Evolutionary change is a characteristic of living organisms and forms one of the ways in which species adapt to changed conditions. However, most ecological models do not incorporate this ubiquitous phenomenon. We have developed a model that takes a 'phenotypic gambit' approach and focuses on changes in the frequency of phenotypes (which differ in timing of breeding and fecundity) within a population, using, as an example, seasonal breeding. Fitness per phenotype calculated as the individual's contribution to population growth on an annual basis coincide with the population dynamics per phenotype. Simplified model variants were explored to examine whether the complexity included in the model is justified. Outputs from the spatially implicit model underestimated the number of individuals across all phenotypes. When no phenotype transitions are included (i.e. offspring always inherit their parent's phenotype) numbers of all individuals are always underestimated. We conclude that by using a phenotypic gambit approach evolutionary dynamics can be incorporated into individual based models, and that all that is required is an understanding of the probability of offspring inheriting the parental phenotype

Research findings from the Memories of Nursing oral history project.

Capturing the stories of nurses who practised in the past offers the opportunity to reflect on the changes in practice over time to determine lessons for the future. This article shares some of the memories of a group of 16 nurses who were interviewed in Bournemouth, UK, between 2009 and 2016. Thematic analysis of the interview transcripts identified a number of themes, three of which are presented: defining moments, hygiene and hierarchy. The similarities and differences between their experiences and contemporary nursing practice are discussed to highlight how it may be timely to think back in order to take practice forward positively in the future

Coevolution in a One Predator–Two Prey System

Background: Our understanding of coevolution in a predator–prey system is based mostly on pair-wise interactions. Methodology and Principal Findings: Here I analyze a one-predator–two-prey system in which the predator’s attack ability and the defense abilities of the prey all evolve. The coevolutionary consequences can differ dramatically depending on the initial trait value and the timing of the alternative prey’s invasion into the original system. If the invading prey species has relatively low defense ability when it invades, its defense is likely to evolve to a lower level, stabilizing the population dynamics. In contrast, if when it invades its defense ability is close to that of the resident prey, its defense can evolve to a higher level and that of the resident prey may suddenly cease to evolve, destabilizing the population dynamics. Destabilization due to invasion is likely when the invading prey is adaptively superior (evolution of its defense is less constrained and fast), and it can also occur in a broad condition even when the invading prey is adaptively inferior. In addition, invasion into a resident system far from equilibrium characterized by population oscillations is likely to cause further destabilization

The functional response of a generalist predator

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Extraordinary lifespans in ants: a test of evolutionary theories of ageing

Senescence presents not only a medical problem, but also an evolutionary paradox because it should be opposed by natural selection. Evolutionary hypotheses propose that ageing evolves as the necessary cost of processes increasing early reproductive success(1,2), or because of weaker selection against late-acting mutations(3). A prediction of these hypotheses is that the rate of ageing should increase and the average lifespan decrease as the rate of extrinsic mortality increases(1-7). Alternatively, non-adaptive, purely mechanistic hypotheses invoke damage to DNA, cells, tissues and organs as being the unique cause of senescence and ineluctable death of organisms(8). Here we show that the evolution of eusociality is associated with a 100-fold increase in insect lifespan. Such an increase is predicted by evolutionary theories because termite, bee and ant queens live in colonies that are sheltered and heavily defended against predators. Moreover, a comparison of ants with contrasting life histories also reveals an association between lifespan and extrinsic rate of mortality. These results provide strong support for evolutionary theories of ageing, as purely mechanistic hypotheses of senescence do not propose any association between the rate of extrinsic mortality and lifespans

Intermediate predator naïveté and sex-skewed vulnerability predict the impact of an invasive higher predator

The spread of invasive species continues to reduce biodiversity across all regions and habitat types globally. However, invader impact prediction can be nebulous, and approaches often fail to integrate coupled direct and indirect invader effects. Here, we examine the ecological impacts of an invasive higher predator on lower trophic groups, further developing methodologies to more holistically quantify invader impact. We employ functional response (FR, resource use under different densities) and prey switching experiments to examine the trait- and density-mediated impacts of the invasive mosquitofish Gambusia affinis on an endemic intermediate predator Lovenula raynerae (Copepoda). Lovenula raynerae effectively consumed larval mosquitoes, but was naïve to mosquitofish cues, with attack rates and handling times of the intermediate predator unaffected by mosquitofish cue-treated water. Mosquitofish did not switch between male and female prey, consistently displaying a strong preference for female copepods. We thus demonstrate a lack of risk-reduction activity in the presence of invasive fish by L. raynerae and, in turn, high susceptibility of such intermediate trophic groups to invader impact. Further, we show that mosquitofish demonstrate sex-skewed predator selectivity towards intermediate predators of mosquito larvae, which may affect predator population demographics and, perversely, increase disease vector proliferations. We advocate the utility of FRs and prey switching combined to holistically quantify invasive species impact potential on native organisms at multiple trophic levels

Regulatory T Cells Expanded from Hiv-1-Infected Individuals Maintain Phenotype, Tcr Repertoire and Suppressive Capacity

While modulation of regulatory T cell (Treg) function and adoptive Treg transfer are being explored as therapeutic modalities in the context of autoimmune diseases, transplantation and cancer, their role in HIV-1 pathogenesis remains less well defined. Controversy persists regarding their beneficial or detrimental effects in HIV-1 disease, which warrants further detailed exploration. Our objectives were to investigate if functional CD4+ Tregs can be isolated and expanded from HIV-1-infected individuals for experimental or potential future therapeutic use and to determine phenotype and suppressive capacity of expanded Tregs from HIV-1 positive blood and tissue. Tregs and conventional T cell controls were isolated from blood and gut-associated lymphoid tissue of individuals with HIV-1 infection and healthy donors using flow-based cell-sorting. The phenotype of expanded Tregs was assessed by flow-cytometry and quantitative PCR. T-cell receptor ß-chain (TCR-β) repertoire diversity was investigated by deep sequencing. Flow-based T-cell proliferation and chromium release cytotoxicity assays were used to determine Treg suppressive function. Tregs from HIV-1 positive individuals, including infants, were successfully expanded from PBMC and GALT. Expanded Tregs expressed high levels of FOXP3, CTLA4, CD39 and HELIOS and exhibited a highly demethylated TSDR (Treg-specific demethylated region), characteristic of Treg lineage. The TCRß repertoire was maintained following Treg expansion and expanded Tregs remained highly suppressive in vitro. Our data demonstrate that Tregs can be expanded from blood and tissue compartments of HIV-1+ donors with preservation of Treg phenotype, function and TCR repertoire. These results are highly relevant for the investigation of potential future therapeutic use, as currently investigated for other disease states and hold great promise for detailed studies on the role of Tregs in HIV-1 infection.Elizabeth Glaser Pediatric AIDS Foundation (Pediatric HIV Vaccine Program Award MV-00-9-900-1429-0-00)Massachusetts General Hospital. Executive Committee on Research (MGH/ECOR Physician Scientist Development Award)National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (NIH NIAID (KO8 AI074405))National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (NIH NIAID AI074405-03S1)Massachusetts General Hospital (William F. Milton Fund)Harvard University. Center for AIDS Research (CFAR Scholar Award)Massachusetts General Hospital. Center for the Study Inflammatory Bowel Disease (P30DK043351)Harvard University. Center for AIDS Research (NIH funded program (5P30AI060354-09

Host plant range of a fruit fly community (Diptera: Tephritidae): Does fruit composition influence larval performance?

Background: Phytophagous insects differ in their degree of specialisation on host plants, and range from strictly monophagous species that can develop on only one host plant to extremely polyphagous species that can develop on hundreds of plant species in many families. Nutritional compounds in host fruits affect several larval traits that may be related to adult fitness. In this study, we determined the relationship between fruit nutrient composition and the degree of host specialisation of seven of the eight tephritid species present in La Réunion; these species are known to have very different host ranges in natura. In the laboratory, larval survival, larval developmental time, and pupal weight were assessed on 22 fruit species occurring in La Réunion. In addition, data on fruit nutritional composition were obtained from existing databases. Results: For each tephritid, the three larval traits were significantly affected by fruit species and the effects of fruits on larval traits differed among tephritids. As expected, the polyphagous species Bactrocera zonata, Ceratitis catoirii, C. rosa, and C. capitata were able to survive on a larger range of fruits than the oligophagous species Zeugodacus cucurbitae, Dacus demmerezi, and Neoceratitis cyanescens. Pupal weight was positively correlated with larval survival and was negatively correlated with developmental time for polyphagous species. Canonical correspondence analysis of the relationship between fruit nutrient composition and tephritid survival showed that polyphagous species survived better than oligophagous ones in fruits containing higher concentrations of carbohydrate, fibre, and lipid. Conclusion: Nutrient composition of host fruit at least partly explains the suitability of host fruits for larvae. Completed with female preferences experiments these results will increase our understanding of factors affecting tephritid host range. (Résumé d'auteur

Mechanistic origins of variability in phytoplankton dynamics. Part II: analysis of mesocosm blooms under climate change scenarios

Driving factors of phytoplankton spring blooms have been discussed since long, but rarely analyzed quantitatively. Here, we use a mechanistic size-based ecosystem model to reconstruct observations made during the Kiel mesocosm experiments (2005–2006). The model accurately hindcasts highly variable bloom developments including community shifts in cell size. Under low light, phytoplankton dynamics was mostly controlled by selective mesozooplankton grazing. Selective grazing also explains initial dominance of large diatoms under high light conditions. All blooms were mainly terminated by aggregation and sedimentation. Allometries in nutrient uptake capabilities led to a delayed, post-bloom dominance of small species. In general, biomass and trait dynamics revealed many mutual dependencies, while growth factors decoupled from the respective selective forces. A size shift induced by one factor often changed the growth dependency on other factors. Within climate change scenarios, these indirect effects produced large sensitivities of ecosystem fluxes to the size distribution of winter phytoplankton. These sensitivities exceeded those found for changes in vertical mixing, whereas temperature changes only had minimal impacts

Direct competition results from strong competiton for limited resource

We study a model of competition for resource through a chemostat-type model where species consume the common resource that is constantly supplied. We assume that the species and resources are characterized by a continuous trait. As already proved, this model, although more complicated than the usual Lotka-Volterra direct competition model, describes competitive interactions leading to concentrated distributions of species in continuous trait space. Here we assume a very fast dynamics for the supply of the resource and a fast dynamics for death and uptake rates. In this regime we show that factors that are independent of the resource competition become as important as the competition efficiency and that the direct competition model is a good approximation of the chemostat. Assuming these two timescales allows us to establish a mathematically rigorous proof showing that our resource-competition model with continuous traits converges to a direct competition model. We also show that the two timescales assumption is required to mathematically justify the corresponding classic result on a model consisting of only finite number of species and resources (MacArthur, R. Theor. Popul. Biol. 1970:1, 1-11). This is performed through asymptotic analysis, introducing different scales for the resource renewal rate and the uptake rate. The mathematical difficulty relies in a possible initial layer for the resource dynamics. The chemostat model comes with a global convex Lyapunov functional. We show that the particular form of the competition kernel derived from the uptake kernel, satisfies a positivity property which is known to be necessary for the direct competition model to enjoy the related Lyapunov functional