40 research outputs found

    Preservation of thalamocortical circuitry is essential for good recovery after cardiac arrest

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    Continuous electroencephalographam (EEG) monitoring contributes to prediction of neurological outcome in comatose cardiac arrest survivors. While the phenomenology of EEG abnormalities in postanoxic encephalopathy is well known, the pathophysiology, especially the presumed role of selective synaptic failure, is less understood. To further this understanding, we estimate biophysical model parameters from the EEG power spectra from individual patients with a good or poor recovery from a postanoxic encephalopathy. This biophysical model includes intracortical, intrathalamic, and corticothalamic synaptic strengths, as well as synaptic time constants and axonal conduction delays. We used continuous EEG measurements from hundred comatose patients recorded during the first 48 h postcardiac arrest, 50 with a poor neurological outcome [cerebral performance category (CPC = 5)] and 50 with a good neurological outcome (CPC = 1). We only included patients that developed (dis-)continuous EEG activity within 48 h postcardiac arrest. For patients with a good outcome, we observed an initial relative excitation in the corticothalamic loop and corticothalamic propagation that subsequently evolved towards values observed in healthy controls. For patients with a poor outcome, we observed an initial increase in the cortical excitation-inhibition ratio, increased relative inhibition in the corticothalamic loop, delayed corticothalamic propagation of neuronal activity, and severely prolonged synaptic time constants that did not return to physiological values. We conclude that the abnormal EEG evolution in patients with a poor neurological recovery after cardiac arrest may result from persistent and selective synaptic failure that includes corticothalamic circuitry and also delayed corticothalamic propagation.</p

    Bayesian optimization of large-scale biophysical networks

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    The relationship between structure and function in the human brain is well established, but not yet well characterised. Large-scale biophysical models allow us to investigate this relationship, by leveraging structural information (e.g. derived from diffusion tractography) in order to couple dynamical models of local neuronal activity into networks of interacting regions distributed across the cortex. In practice however, these models are difficult to parametrise, and their simulation is often delicate and computationally expensive. This undermines the experimental aspect of scientific modelling, and stands in the way of comparing different parametrisations, network architectures, or models in general, with confidence. Here, we advocate the use of Bayesian optimisation for assessing the capabilities of biophysical network models, given a set of desired properties (e.g. band-specific functional connectivity); and in turn the use of this assessment as a principled basis for incremental modelling and model comparison. We adapt an optimisation method designed to cope with costly, high-dimensional, non-convex problems, and demonstrate its use and effectiveness. Using five parameters controlling key aspects of our model, we find that this method is able to converge to regions of high functional similarity with real MEG data, with very few samples given the number of parameters, without getting stuck in local extrema, and while building and exploiting a map of uncertainty defined smoothly across the parameter space. We compare the results obtained using different methods of structural connectivity estimation from diffusion tractography, and find that one method leads to better simulations

    The changing health impact of vaccines in the COVID-19 pandemic: a modeling study

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    Much of the world’s population had already been infected with COVID-19 by the time the Omicron variant emerged at the end of 2021, but the scale of the Omicron wave was larger than any that had come before or has happened since, and it left a global imprinting of immunity that changed the COVID-19 landscape. In this study, we simulate a South African population and demonstrate how population-level vaccine effectiveness and efficiency changed over the course of the first 2 years of the pandemic. We then introduce three hypothetical variants and evaluate the impact of vaccines with different properties. We find that variant-chasing vaccines have a narrow window of dominating pre-existing vaccines but that a variant-chasing vaccine strategy may have global utility, depending on the rate of spread from setting to setting. Next-generation vaccines might be able to overcome uncertainty in pace and degree of viral evolution

    COVID-19 outbreaks in residential aged care facilities: an agent-based modeling study

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    IntroductionA disproportionate number of COVID-19 deaths occur in Residential Aged Care Facilities (RACFs), where better evidence is needed to target COVID-19 interventions to prevent mortality. This study used an agent-based model to assess the role of community prevalence, vaccination strategies, and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on COVID-19 outcomes in RACFs in Victoria, Australia.MethodsThe model simulated outbreaks in RACFs over time, and was calibrated to distributions for outbreak size, outbreak duration, and case fatality rate in Victorian RACFs over 2022. The number of incursions to RACFs per day were estimated to fit total deaths and diagnoses over time and community prevalence.Total infections, diagnoses, and deaths in RACFs were estimated over July 2023–June 2024 under scenarios of different: community epidemic wave assumptions (magnitude and frequency); RACF vaccination strategies (6-monthly, 12-monthly, no further vaccines); additional non-pharmaceutical interventions (10, 25, 50% efficacy); and reduction in incursions (30% or 60%).ResultsTotal RACF outcomes were proportional to cumulative community infections and incursion rates, suggesting potential for strategic visitation/staff policies or community-based interventions to reduce deaths. Recency of vaccination when epidemic waves occurred was critical; compared with 6-monthly boosters, 12-monthly boosters had approximately 1.2 times more deaths and no further boosters had approximately 1.6 times more deaths over July 2023–June 2024. Additional NPIs, even with only 10–25% efficacy, could lead to a 13–31% reduction in deaths in RACFs.ConclusionFuture community epidemic wave patterns are unknown but will be major drivers of outcomes in RACFs. Maintaining high coverage of recent vaccination, minimizing incursions, and increasing NPIs can have a major impact on cumulative infections and deaths

    Keeping kids in school: modelling school-based testing and quarantine strategies during the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia

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    BackgroundIn 2021, the Australian Government Department of Health commissioned a consortium of modelling groups to generate evidence assisting the transition from a goal of no community COVID-19 transmission to ‘living with COVID-19’, with adverse health and social consequences limited by vaccination and other measures. Due to the extended school closures over 2020–21, maximizing face-to-face teaching was a major objective during this transition. The consortium was tasked with informing school surveillance and contact management strategies to minimize infections and support this goal.MethodsOutcomes considered were infections and days of face-to-face teaching lost in the 45 days following an outbreak within an otherwise COVID-naïve school setting. A stochastic agent-based model of COVID-19 transmission was used to evaluate a ‘test-to-stay’ strategy using daily rapid antigen tests (RATs) for close contacts of a case for 7 days compared with home quarantine; and an asymptomatic surveillance strategy involving twice-weekly screening of all students and/or teachers using RATs.FindingsTest-to-stay had similar effectiveness for reducing school infections as extended home quarantine, without the associated days of face-to-face teaching lost. Asymptomatic screening was beneficial in reducing both infections and days of face-to-face teaching lost and was most beneficial when community prevalence was high.InterpretationUse of RATs in school settings for surveillance and contact management can help to maximize face-to-face teaching and minimize outbreaks. This evidence supported the implementation of surveillance testing in schools in several Australian jurisdictions from January 2022

    A biophysical model of dynamic balancing of excitation and inhibition in fast oscillatory large-scale networks

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    Over long timescales, neuronal dynamics can be robust to quite large perturbations, such as changes in white matter connectivity and grey matter structure through processes including learning, aging, development and certain disease processes. One possible explanation is that robust dynamics are facilitated by homeostatic mechanisms that can dynamically rebalance brain networks. In this study, we simulate a cortical brain network using the Wilson-Cowan neural mass model with conduction delays and noise, and use inhibitory synaptic plasticity (ISP) to dynamically achieve a spatially local balance between excitation and inhibition. Using MEG data from 55 subjects we find that ISP enables us to simultaneously achieve high correlation with multiple measures of functional connectivity, including amplitude envelope correlation and phase locking. Further, we find that ISP successfully achieves local E/I balance, and can consistently predict the functional connectivity computed from real MEG data, for a much wider range of model parameters than is possible with a model without ISP

    26th Annual Computational Neuroscience Meeting (CNS*2017): Part 3 - Meeting Abstracts - Antwerp, Belgium. 15–20 July 2017

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    This work was produced as part of the activities of FAPESP Research,\ud Disseminations and Innovation Center for Neuromathematics (grant\ud 2013/07699-0, S. Paulo Research Foundation). NLK is supported by a\ud FAPESP postdoctoral fellowship (grant 2016/03855-5). ACR is partially\ud supported by a CNPq fellowship (grant 306251/2014-0)

    25th annual computational neuroscience meeting: CNS-2016

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    The same neuron may play different functional roles in the neural circuits to which it belongs. For example, neurons in the Tritonia pedal ganglia may participate in variable phases of the swim motor rhythms [1]. While such neuronal functional variability is likely to play a major role the delivery of the functionality of neural systems, it is difficult to study it in most nervous systems. We work on the pyloric rhythm network of the crustacean stomatogastric ganglion (STG) [2]. Typically network models of the STG treat neurons of the same functional type as a single model neuron (e.g. PD neurons), assuming the same conductance parameters for these neurons and implying their synchronous firing [3, 4]. However, simultaneous recording of PD neurons shows differences between the timings of spikes of these neurons. This may indicate functional variability of these neurons. Here we modelled separately the two PD neurons of the STG in a multi-neuron model of the pyloric network. Our neuron models comply with known correlations between conductance parameters of ionic currents. Our results reproduce the experimental finding of increasing spike time distance between spikes originating from the two model PD neurons during their synchronised burst phase. The PD neuron with the larger calcium conductance generates its spikes before the other PD neuron. Larger potassium conductance values in the follower neuron imply longer delays between spikes, see Fig. 17.Neuromodulators change the conductance parameters of neurons and maintain the ratios of these parameters [5]. Our results show that such changes may shift the individual contribution of two PD neurons to the PD-phase of the pyloric rhythm altering their functionality within this rhythm. Our work paves the way towards an accessible experimental and computational framework for the analysis of the mechanisms and impact of functional variability of neurons within the neural circuits to which they belong

    Mammalian sleep dynamics: how diverse features arise from a common physiological framework.

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    Mammalian sleep varies widely, ranging from frequent napping in rodents to consolidated blocks in primates and unihemispheric sleep in cetaceans. In humans, rats, mice and cats, sleep patterns are orchestrated by homeostatic and circadian drives to the sleep-wake switch, but it is not known whether this system is ubiquitous among mammals. Here, changes of just two parameters in a recent quantitative model of this switch are shown to reproduce typical sleep patterns for 17 species across 7 orders. Furthermore, the parameter variations are found to be consistent with the assumptions that homeostatic production and clearance scale as brain volume and surface area, respectively. Modeling an additional inhibitory connection between sleep-active neuronal populations on opposite sides of the brain generates unihemispheric sleep, providing a testable hypothetical mechanism for this poorly understood phenomenon. Neuromodulation of this connection alone is shown to account for the ability of fur seals to transition between bihemispheric sleep on land and unihemispheric sleep in water. Determining what aspects of mammalian sleep patterns can be explained within a single framework, and are thus universal, is essential to understanding the evolution and function of mammalian sleep. This is the first demonstration of a single model reproducing sleep patterns for multiple different species. These wide-ranging findings suggest that the core physiological mechanisms controlling sleep are common to many mammalian orders, with slight evolutionary modifications accounting for interspecies differences
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