Adjusting for verification bias in diagnostic accuracy measures when comparing multiple screening 2 tests - an application to the IP1-PROSTAGRAM study

Introduction Novel screening tests used to detect a target condition are compared against either a reference standard or other existing screening methods. However, as it is not always possible to apply the reference standard on the whole population under study, verification bias is introduced. Statistical methods exist to adjust estimates to account for this bias. We extend common methods to adjust for verification bias when multiple tests are compared to a reference standard using data from a prospective double blind screening study for prostate cancer. Methods Begg and Greenes method and multiple imputation are extended to include the results of multiple screening tests which determine condition verification status. These two methods are compared to the complete case analysis using the IP1-PROSTAGRAM study data. IP1-PROSTAGRAM used a paired84 cohort double-blind design to evaluate the use of imaging as alternative tests to screen for prostate 85 cancer, compared to a blood test called prostate specific antigen (PSA). Participants with positive imaging (index) and/or PSA (control) underwent a prostate biopsy (reference). Results When comparing complete case results to Begg and Greenes and methods of multiple imputation there is a statistically significant increase in the specificity estimates for all screening tests. Sensitivity estimates remained similar across the methods, with completely overlapping 95% confidence intervals. Negative predictive value (NPV) estimates were higher when adjusting for verification bias, compared to complete case analysis, even though the 95% confidence intervals overlap. Positive predictive value (PPV) estimates were similar across all methods. Conclusion Statistical methods are required to adjust for verification bias in accuracy estimates of screening tests. Expanding Begg and Greenes method to include multiple screening tests can be computationally intensive, hence multiple imputation is recommended, especially as it can be modified for low prevalence of the target condition

Structural and non-coding variants increase the diagnostic yield of clinical whole genome sequencing for rare diseases

BACKGROUND: Whole genome sequencing is increasingly being used for the diagnosis of patients with rare diseases. However, the diagnostic yields of many studies, particularly those conducted in a healthcare setting, are often disappointingly low, at 25–30%. This is in part because although entire genomes are sequenced, analysis is often confined to in silico gene panels or coding regions of the genome. METHODS: We undertook WGS on a cohort of 122 unrelated rare disease patients and their relatives (300 genomes) who had been pre-screened by gene panels or arrays. Patients were recruited from a broad spectrum of clinical specialties. We applied a bioinformatics pipeline that would allow comprehensive analysis of all variant types. We combined established bioinformatics tools for phenotypic and genomic analysis with our novel algorithms (SVRare, ALTSPLICE and GREEN-DB) to detect and annotate structural, splice site and non-coding variants. RESULTS: Our diagnostic yield was 43/122 cases (35%), although 47/122 cases (39%) were considered solved when considering novel candidate genes with supporting functional data into account. Structural, splice site and deep intronic variants contributed to 20/47 (43%) of our solved cases. Five genes that are novel, or were novel at the time of discovery, were identified, whilst a further three genes are putative novel disease genes with evidence of causality. We identified variants of uncertain significance in a further fourteen candidate genes. The phenotypic spectrum associated with RMND1 was expanded to include polymicrogyria. Two patients with secondary findings in FBN1 and KCNQ1 were confirmed to have previously unidentified Marfan and long QT syndromes, respectively, and were referred for further clinical interventions. Clinical diagnoses were changed in six patients and treatment adjustments made for eight individuals, which for five patients was considered life-saving. CONCLUSIONS: Genome sequencing is increasingly being considered as a first-line genetic test in routine clinical settings and can make a substantial contribution to rapidly identifying a causal aetiology for many patients, shortening their diagnostic odyssey. We have demonstrated that structural, splice site and intronic variants make a significant contribution to diagnostic yield and that comprehensive analysis of the entire genome is essential to maximise the value of clinical genome sequencing

Grand Challenges in global eye health: a global prioritisation process using Delphi method

Background: We undertook a Grand Challenges in Global Eye Health prioritisation exercise to identify the key issues that must be addressed to improve eye health in the context of an ageing population, to eliminate persistent inequities in health-care access, and to mitigate widespread resource limitations. Methods: Drawing on methods used in previous Grand Challenges studies, we used a multi-step recruitment strategy to assemble a diverse panel of individuals from a range of disciplines relevant to global eye health from all regions globally to participate in a three-round, online, Delphi-like, prioritisation process to nominate and rank challenges in global eye health. Through this process, we developed both global and regional priority lists. Findings: Between Sept 1 and Dec 12, 2019, 470 individuals complete round 1 of the process, of whom 336 completed all three rounds (round 2 between Feb 26 and March 18, 2020, and round 3 between April 2 and April 25, 2020) 156 (46%) of 336 were women, 180 (54%) were men. The proportion of participants who worked in each region ranged from 104 (31%) in sub-Saharan Africa to 21 (6%) in central Europe, eastern Europe, and in central Asia. Of 85 unique challenges identified after round 1, 16 challenges were prioritised at the global level; six focused on detection and treatment of conditions (cataract, refractive error, glaucoma, diabetic retinopathy, services for children and screening for early detection), two focused on addressing shortages in human resource capacity, five on other health service and policy factors (including strengthening policies, integration, health information systems, and budget allocation), and three on improving access to care and promoting equity. Interpretation: This list of Grand Challenges serves as a starting point for immediate action by funders to guide investment in research and innovation in eye health. It challenges researchers, clinicians, and policy makers to build collaborations to address specific challenges. Funding: The Queen Elizabeth Diamond Jubilee Trust, Moorfields Eye Charity, National Institute for Health Research Moorfields Biomedical Research Centre, Wellcome Trust, Sightsavers, The Fred Hollows Foundation, The Seva Foundation, British Council for the Prevention of Blindness, and Christian Blind Mission. Translations: For the French, Spanish, Chinese, Portuguese, Arabic and Persian translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section

Toxic epidermal necrolysis and Stevens-Johnson syndrome

Toxic epidermal necrolysis (TEN) and Stevens Johnson Syndrome (SJS) are severe adverse cutaneous drug reactions that predominantly involve the skin and mucous membranes. Both are rare, with TEN and SJS affecting approximately 1or 2/1,000,000 annually, and are considered medical emergencies as they are potentially fatal. They are characterized by mucocutaneous tenderness and typically hemorrhagic erosions, erythema and more or less severe epidermal detachment presenting as blisters and areas of denuded skin. Currently, TEN and SJS are considered to be two ends of a spectrum of severe epidermolytic adverse cutaneous drug reactions, differing only by their extent of skin detachment. Drugs are assumed or identified as the main cause of SJS/TEN in most cases, but Mycoplasma pneumoniae and Herpes simplex virus infections are well documented causes alongside rare cases in which the aetiology remains unknown. Several drugs are at "high" risk of inducing TEN/SJS including: Allopurinol, Trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole and other sulfonamide-antibiotics, aminopenicillins, cephalosporins, quinolones, carbamazepine, phenytoin, phenobarbital and NSAID's of the oxicam-type. Genetic susceptibility to SJS and TEN is likely as exemplified by the strong association observed in Han Chinese between a genetic marker, the human leukocyte antigen HLA-B*1502, and SJS induced by carbamazepine. Diagnosis relies mainly on clinical signs together with the histological analysis of a skin biopsy showing typical full-thickness epidermal necrolysis due to extensive keratinocyte apoptosis. Differential diagnosis includes linear IgA dermatosis and paraneoplastic pemphigus, pemphigus vulgaris and bullous pemphigoid, acute generalized exanthematous pustulosis (AGEP), disseminated fixed bullous drug eruption and staphyloccocal scalded skin syndrome (SSSS). Due to the high risk of mortality, management of patients with SJS/TEN requires rapid diagnosis, evaluation of the prognosis using SCORTEN, identification and interruption of the culprit drug, specialized supportive care ideally in an intensive care unit, and consideration of immunomodulating agents such as high-dose intravenous immunoglobulin therapy. SJS and TEN are severe and life-threatening. The average reported mortality rate of SJS is 1-5%, and of TEN is 25-35%; it can be even higher in elderly patients and those with a large surface area of epidermal detachment. More than 50% of patients surviving TEN suffer from long-term sequelae of the disease

Mortality from gastrointestinal congenital anomalies at 264 hospitals in 74 low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries: a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study

Background: Congenital anomalies are the fifth leading cause of mortality in children younger than 5 years globally. Many gastrointestinal congenital anomalies are fatal without timely access to neonatal surgical care, but few studies have been done on these conditions in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We compared outcomes of the seven most common gastrointestinal congenital anomalies in low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries globally, and identified factors associated with mortality. // Methods: We did a multicentre, international prospective cohort study of patients younger than 16 years, presenting to hospital for the first time with oesophageal atresia, congenital diaphragmatic hernia, intestinal atresia, gastroschisis, exomphalos, anorectal malformation, and Hirschsprung's disease. Recruitment was of consecutive patients for a minimum of 1 month between October, 2018, and April, 2019. We collected data on patient demographics, clinical status, interventions, and outcomes using the REDCap platform. Patients were followed up for 30 days after primary intervention, or 30 days after admission if they did not receive an intervention. The primary outcome was all-cause, in-hospital mortality for all conditions combined and each condition individually, stratified by country income status. We did a complete case analysis. // Findings: We included 3849 patients with 3975 study conditions (560 with oesophageal atresia, 448 with congenital diaphragmatic hernia, 681 with intestinal atresia, 453 with gastroschisis, 325 with exomphalos, 991 with anorectal malformation, and 517 with Hirschsprung's disease) from 264 hospitals (89 in high-income countries, 166 in middle-income countries, and nine in low-income countries) in 74 countries. Of the 3849 patients, 2231 (58·0%) were male. Median gestational age at birth was 38 weeks (IQR 36–39) and median bodyweight at presentation was 2·8 kg (2·3–3·3). Mortality among all patients was 37 (39·8%) of 93 in low-income countries, 583 (20·4%) of 2860 in middle-income countries, and 50 (5·6%) of 896 in high-income countries (p<0·0001 between all country income groups). Gastroschisis had the greatest difference in mortality between country income strata (nine [90·0%] of ten in low-income countries, 97 [31·9%] of 304 in middle-income countries, and two [1·4%] of 139 in high-income countries; p≤0·0001 between all country income groups). Factors significantly associated with higher mortality for all patients combined included country income status (low-income vs high-income countries, risk ratio 2·78 [95% CI 1·88–4·11], p<0·0001; middle-income vs high-income countries, 2·11 [1·59–2·79], p<0·0001), sepsis at presentation (1·20 [1·04–1·40], p=0·016), higher American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score at primary intervention (ASA 4–5 vs ASA 1–2, 1·82 [1·40–2·35], p<0·0001; ASA 3 vs ASA 1–2, 1·58, [1·30–1·92], p<0·0001]), surgical safety checklist not used (1·39 [1·02–1·90], p=0·035), and ventilation or parenteral nutrition unavailable when needed (ventilation 1·96, [1·41–2·71], p=0·0001; parenteral nutrition 1·35, [1·05–1·74], p=0·018). Administration of parenteral nutrition (0·61, [0·47–0·79], p=0·0002) and use of a peripherally inserted central catheter (0·65 [0·50–0·86], p=0·0024) or percutaneous central line (0·69 [0·48–1·00], p=0·049) were associated with lower mortality. // Interpretation: Unacceptable differences in mortality exist for gastrointestinal congenital anomalies between low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries. Improving access to quality neonatal surgical care in LMICs will be vital to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 of ending preventable deaths in neonates and children younger than 5 years by 2030

Pooled analysis of WHO Surgical Safety Checklist use and mortality after emergency laparotomy

Background The World Health Organization (WHO) Surgical Safety Checklist has fostered safe practice for 10 years, yet its place in emergency surgery has not been assessed on a global scale. The aim of this study was to evaluate reported checklist use in emergency settings and examine the relationship with perioperative mortality in patients who had emergency laparotomy. Methods In two multinational cohort studies, adults undergoing emergency laparotomy were compared with those having elective gastrointestinal surgery. Relationships between reported checklist use and mortality were determined using multivariable logistic regression and bootstrapped simulation. Results Of 12 296 patients included from 76 countries, 4843 underwent emergency laparotomy. After adjusting for patient and disease factors, checklist use before emergency laparotomy was more common in countries with a high Human Development Index (HDI) (2455 of 2741, 89.6 per cent) compared with that in countries with a middle (753 of 1242, 60.6 per cent; odds ratio (OR) 0.17, 95 per cent c.i. 0.14 to 0.21, P <0001) or low (363 of 860, 422 per cent; OR 008, 007 to 010, P <0.001) HDI. Checklist use was less common in elective surgery than for emergency laparotomy in high-HDI countries (risk difference -94 (95 per cent c.i. -11.9 to -6.9) per cent; P <0001), but the relationship was reversed in low-HDI countries (+121 (+7.0 to +173) per cent; P <0001). In multivariable models, checklist use was associated with a lower 30-day perioperative mortality (OR 0.60, 0.50 to 073; P <0.001). The greatest absolute benefit was seen for emergency surgery in low- and middle-HDI countries. Conclusion Checklist use in emergency laparotomy was associated with a significantly lower perioperative mortality rate. Checklist use in low-HDI countries was half that in high-HDI countries.Peer reviewe

Structural and non-coding variants increase the diagnostic yield of clinical whole genome sequencing for rare diseases.

BACKGROUND: Whole genome sequencing is increasingly being used for the diagnosis of patients with rare diseases. However, the diagnostic yields of many studies, particularly those conducted in a healthcare setting, are often disappointingly low, at 25-30%. This is in part because although entire genomes are sequenced, analysis is often confined to in silico gene panels or coding regions of the genome. METHODS: We undertook WGS on a cohort of 122 unrelated rare disease patients and their relatives (300 genomes) who had been pre-screened by gene panels or arrays. Patients were recruited from a broad spectrum of clinical specialties. We applied a bioinformatics pipeline that would allow comprehensive analysis of all variant types. We combined established bioinformatics tools for phenotypic and genomic analysis with our novel algorithms (SVRare, ALTSPLICE and GREEN-DB) to detect and annotate structural, splice site and non-coding variants. RESULTS: Our diagnostic yield was 43/122 cases (35%), although 47/122 cases (39%) were considered solved when considering novel candidate genes with supporting functional data into account. Structural, splice site and deep intronic variants contributed to 20/47 (43%) of our solved cases. Five genes that are novel, or were novel at the time of discovery, were identified, whilst a further three genes are putative novel disease genes with evidence of causality. We identified variants of uncertain significance in a further fourteen candidate genes. The phenotypic spectrum associated with RMND1 was expanded to include polymicrogyria. Two patients with secondary findings in FBN1 and KCNQ1 were confirmed to have previously unidentified Marfan and long QT syndromes, respectively, and were referred for further clinical interventions. Clinical diagnoses were changed in six patients and treatment adjustments made for eight individuals, which for five patients was considered life-saving. CONCLUSIONS: Genome sequencing is increasingly being considered as a first-line genetic test in routine clinical settings and can make a substantial contribution to rapidly identifying a causal aetiology for many patients, shortening their diagnostic odyssey. We have demonstrated that structural, splice site and intronic variants make a significant contribution to diagnostic yield and that comprehensive analysis of the entire genome is essential to maximise the value of clinical genome sequencing

The dynamics of expanding mangroves in New Zealand

In contrast to the global trend of mangrove decline, New Zealand mangroves are rapidly expanding, facilitated by elevated sediment inputs in coastal waters as a consequence of large-scale land use changes following European settlement. New Zealand mangroves are at the southern limit of the global mangrove extent, which limits the tree height of Avicennia marina var. australasica, the only mangrove species present. Mangroves in New Zealand thrive in the sheltered environments of infilling drowned river valleys with abundant supply of fine terrigenous sediments, showing various stages of mangrove succession and expansion dynamics. Bio-physical interactions and carbon dynamics in these expanding temperate mangrove systems show similarities to, but also differ from those in tropical mangrove forests, for instance due to the limited height and complexity of the mangrove communities. Likewise, ecosystem services provided by New Zealand mangroves deviate from those offered by tropical mangroves. In particular, the association of mangrove expansion with the accumulation of (the increased supply of) fine sediments and the consequent change of estuarine ecosystems, has provoked a negative perception of mangrove expansion and subsequently led to mangrove clearance. Over recent decades, a body of knowledge has been developed regarding the planning and decision making relating to mangrove removal, yet there are still effects that are unknown, for example with respect to the post-clearance recovery of the original sandflat ecosystems. In this chapter we discuss the dynamics of New Zealand’s expanding mangroves from a range of viewpoints, with the aim of elucidating the possible contributions of expanding mangroves to coastal ecosystem services, now and in the future. This chapter also reviews current policies and practice regarding mangrove removal in New Zealand and addresses the (un)known effects of mangrove clearance. These combined insights may contribute to the development of integrated coastal management strategies that recognise the full potential of expanding mangrove ecosystems