Accounting for Underreporting in Mathematical Modeling of Transmission and Control of COVID-19 in Iran

Iran has been the country most affected by the outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 in the Middle East. With a relatively high case fatality ratio and limited testing capacity, the number of confirmed cases reported is suspected to suffer from significant underreporting. Therefore, understanding the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 and assessing the effectiveness of the interventions that have taken place in Iran while accounting for the uncertain level of underreporting is of critical importance. In this paper, we developed a compartmental transmission model to estimate the time-dependent effective reproduction number since the beginning of the outbreak in Iran. We associate the variations in the effective reproduction number with a timeline of interventions and national events. The estimation method accounts for the underreporting due to low case ascertainment. Our estimates of the effective reproduction number ranged from 0.66 to 1.73 between February and April 2020, with a median of 1.16. We estimate a reduction in the effective reproduction number during this period, from 1.73 (95% CI 1.60–1.87) on 1 March 2020 to 0.69 (95% CI 0.68–0.70) on 15 April 2020, due to various non-pharmaceutical interventions. The series of non-pharmaceutical interventions and the public compliance that took place in Iran are found to be effective in slowing down the speed of the spread of COVID-19. However, we argue that if the impact of underreporting is overlooked, the estimated transmission and control dynamics could mislead public health decisions, policy makers, and the general public

Accounting for Underreporting in Mathematical Modeling of Transmission and Control of COVID-19 in Iran

Iran has been the country most affected by the outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 in the Middle East. With a relatively high case fatality ratio and limited testing capacity, the number of confirmed cases reported is suspected to suffer from significant underreporting. Therefore, understanding the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 and assessing the effectiveness of the interventions that have taken place in Iran while accounting for the uncertain level of underreporting is of critical importance. In this paper, we developed a compartmental transmission model to estimate the time-dependent effective reproduction number since the beginning of the outbreak in Iran. We associate the variations in the effective reproduction number with a timeline of interventions and national events. The estimation method accounts for the underreporting due to low case ascertainment. Our estimates of the effective reproduction number ranged from 0.66 to 1.73 between February and April 2020, with a median of 1.16. We estimate a reduction in the effective reproduction number during this period, from 1.73 (95% CI 1.60–1.87) on 1 March 2020 to 0.69 (95% CI 0.68–0.70) on 15 April 2020, due to various non-pharmaceutical interventions. The series of non-pharmaceutical interventions and the public compliance that took place in Iran are found to be effective in slowing down the speed of the spread of COVID-19. However, we argue that if the impact of underreporting is overlooked, the estimated transmission and control dynamics could mislead public health decisions, policy makers, and the general public

Microbial fuel cells: a green and alternative source for bioenergy production

Microbial fuel cell (MFC) represents one of the green technologies for the production of bioenergy. MFCs using microalgae produce bioenergy by converting solar energy into electrical energy as a function of metabolic and anabolic pathways of the cells. In the MFCs with bacteria, bioenergy is generated as a result of the organic substrate oxidation. MFCs have received high attention from researchers in the last years due to the simplicity of the process, the absence in toxic by-products, and low requirements for the algae growth. Many studies have been conducted on MFC and investigated the factors affecting the MFC performance. In the current chapter, the performance of MFC in producing bioenergy as well as the factors which influence the efficacy of MFCs is discussed. It appears that the main factors affecting MFC’s performance include bacterial and algae species, pH, temperature, salinity, substrate, mechanism of electron transfer in an anodic chamber, electrodes materials, surface area, and electron acceptor in a cathodic chamber. These factors are becoming more influential and might lead to overproduction of bioenergy when they are optimized using response surface methodology (RSM)

Dose escalation to high-risk sub-volumes based on non-invasive imaging of hypoxia and glycolytic activity in canine solid tumors:a feasibility study

INTRODUCTION: Glycolytic activity and hypoxia are associated with poor prognosis and radiation resistance. Including both the tumor uptake of 2-deoxy-2-[(18) F]-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) and the proposed hypoxia tracer copper(II)diacetyl-bis(N(4))-methylsemithio-carbazone (Cu-ATSM) in targeted therapy planning may therefore lead to improved tumor control. In this study we analyzed the overlap between sub-volumes of FDG and hypoxia assessed by the uptake of (64)Cu-ATSM in canine solid tumors, and evaluated the possibilities for dose redistribution within the gross tumor volume (GTV). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) scans of five spontaneous canine solid tumors were included. FDG-PET/CT was obtained at day 1, (64)Cu-ATSM at day 2 and 3 (3 and 24 h pi.). GTV was delineated and CT images were co-registered. Sub-volumes for 3 h and 24 h (64)Cu-ATSM (Cu3 and Cu24) were defined by a threshold based method. FDG sub-volumes were delineated at 40% (FDG40) and 50% (FDG50) of SUV(max). The size of sub-volumes, intersection and biological target volume (BTV) were measured in a treatment planning software. By varying the average dose prescription to the tumor from 66 to 85 Gy, the possible dose boost (D( B )) was calculated for the three scenarios that the optimal target for the boost was one, the union or the intersection of the FDG and (64)Cu-ATSM sub-volumes. RESULTS: The potential boost volumes represented a fairly large fraction of the total GTV: Cu3 49.8% (26.8-72.5%), Cu24 28.1% (2.4-54.3%), FDG40 45.2% (10.1-75.2%), and FDG50 32.5% (2.6-68.1%). A BTV including the union (∪) of Cu3 and FDG would involve boosting to a larger fraction of the GTV, in the case of Cu3∪FDG40 63.5% (51.8-83.8) and Cu3∪FDG50 48.1% (43.7-80.8). The union allowed only a very limited D( B ) whereas the intersection allowed a substantial dose escalation. CONCLUSIONS: FDG and (64)Cu-ATSM sub-volumes were only partly overlapping, suggesting that the tracers offer complementing information on tumor physiology. Targeting the combined PET positive volume (BTV) for dose escalation within the GTV results in a limited D( B ). This suggests a more refined dose redistribution based on a weighted combination of the PET tracers in order to obtain an improved tumor control

First observations of separated atmospheric nu_mu and bar{nu-mu} events in the MINOS detector

The complete 5.4 kton MINOS far detector has been taking data since the beginning of August 2003 at a depth of 2070 meters water-equivalent in the Soudan mine, Minnesota. This paper presents the first MINOS observations of nuµ and [overline nu ]µ charged-current atmospheric neutrino interactions based on an exposure of 418 days. The ratio of upward- to downward-going events in the data is compared to the Monte Carlo expectation in the absence of neutrino oscillations, giving Rup/downdata/Rup/downMC=0.62-0.14+0.19(stat.)±0.02(sys.). An extended maximum likelihood analysis of the observed L/E distributions excludes the null hypothesis of no neutrino oscillations at the 98% confidence level. Using the curvature of the observed muons in the 1.3 T MINOS magnetic field nuµ and [overline nu ]µ interactions are separated. The ratio of [overline nu ]µ to nuµ events in the data is compared to the Monte Carlo expectation assuming neutrinos and antineutrinos oscillate in the same manner, giving R[overline nu ][sub mu]/nu[sub mu]data/R[overline nu ][sub mu]/nu[sub mu]MC=0.96-0.27+0.38(stat.)±0.15(sys.), where the errors are the statistical and systematic uncertainties. Although the statistics are limited, this is the first direct observation of atmospheric neutrino interactions separately for nuµ and [overline nu ]µ

Conformation Effects of CpG Methylation on Single-Stranded DNA Oligonucleotides: Analysis of the Opioid Peptide Dynorphin-Coding Sequences

Single-stranded DNA (ssDNA) is characterized by high conformational flexibility that allows these molecules to adopt a variety of conformations. Here we used native polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis (PAGE), circular dichroism (CD) spectroscopy and nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy to show that cytosine methylation at CpG sites affects the conformational flexibility of short ssDNA molecules. The CpG containing 37-nucleotide PDYN (prodynorphin) fragments were used as model molecules. The presence of secondary DNA structures was evident from differences in oligonucleotide mobilities on PAGE, from CD spectra, and from formation of A-T, G-C, and non-canonical G-T base pairs observed by NMR spectroscopy. The oligonucleotides displayed secondary structures at 4°C, and some also at 37°C. Methylation at CpG sites prompted sequence-dependent formation of novel conformations, or shifted the equilibrium between different existing ssDNA conformations. The effects of methylation on gel mobility and base pairing were comparable in strength to the effects induced by point mutations in the DNA sequences. The conformational effects of methylation may be relevant for epigenetic regulatory events in a chromatin context, including DNA-protein or DNA-DNA recognition in the course of gene transcription, and DNA replication and recombination when double-stranded DNA is unwinded to ssDNA

Polymorphous adenocarcinoma of the salivary glands : reappraisal and update

Although relatively rare, polymorphous adenocarcinoma (PAC) is likely the second most common malignancy of the minor salivary glands (MiSG). The diagnosis is mainly based on an incisional biopsy. The optimal treatment comprises wide surgical excision, often with adjuvant radiotherapy. In general, PAC has a good prognosis. Previously, PAC was referred to as polymorphous low-grade adenocarcinoma (PLGA), but the new WHO classification of salivary gland tumours has also included under the PAC subheading, the so-called cribriform adenocarcinoma of minor salivary glands (CAMSG). This approach raised controversy, predominantly because of possible differences in clinical behaviour. For example, PLGA (PAC, classical variant) only rarely metastasizes, whereas CAMSG often shows metastases to the neck lymph nodes. Given the controversy, this review reappraises the definition, epidemiology, clinical presentation, diagnostic work-up, genetics, treatment modalities, and prognosis of PAC of the salivary glands with a particular focus on contrasting differences with CAMSG.Peer reviewe

Epidemiology of chronic kidney disease in children

In the past 30 years there have been major improvements in the care of children with chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, most of the available epidemiological data stem from end-stage renal disease (ESRD) registries and information on the earlier stages of pediatric CKD is still limited. The median reported incidence of renal replacement therapy (RRT) in children aged 0–19 years across the world in 2008 was 9 per million of the age-related population (4–18 years). The prevalence of RRT in 2008 ranged from 18 to 100 per million of the age-related population. Congenital disorders, including congenital anomalies of the kidney and urinary tract (CAKUT) and hereditary nephropathies, are responsible for about two thirds of all cases of CKD in developed countries, while acquired causes predominate in developing countries. Children with congenital disorders experience a slower progression of CKD than those with glomerulonephritis, resulting in a lower proportion of CAKUT in the ESRD population compared with less advanced stages of CKD. Most children with ESRD start on dialysis and then receive a transplant. While the survival rate of children with ERSD has improved, it remains about 30 times lower than that of healthy peers. Children now mainly die of cardiovascular causes and infection rather than from renal failure