Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49\ub74% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46\ub74–52\ub70). The TFR decreased from 4\ub77 livebirths (4\ub75–4\ub79) to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub75), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83\ub78 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197\ub72% (193\ub73–200\ub78) since 1950, from 2\ub76 billion (2\ub75–2\ub76) to 7\ub76 billion (7\ub74–7\ub79) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2\ub70%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1\ub71% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2\ub75% in 1963 to 0\ub77% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2\ub77%. The global average age increased from 26\ub76 years in 1950 to 32\ub71 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59\ub79% to 65\ub73%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1\ub70 livebirths (95% UI 0\ub79–1\ub72) in Cyprus to a high of 7\ub71 livebirths (6\ub78–7\ub74) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0\ub708 livebirths (0\ub707–0\ub709) in South Korea to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub76) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0\ub73 livebirths (0\ub73–0\ub74) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3\ub71 livebirths (3\ub70–3\ub72) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2\ub70% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Growth of and trehalase activity in the thermophilic fungusThermomyces lanuginosus

The thermophilic fungus,Thermomyces lanuginosus, was grown in a glucose-asparagine liquid medium. Optimal mycelial growth occurred at 50°C. The conditions for sporulation were different from those required for vegetative growth. the former being favoured by lower nitrogen level and temperature. Trehalase (α, α-glu coside-l-glucohydrolase, EC 3.2.1.28) was one of the most active glycosidases at 50°C. Non-sporulating mycelium had higher levels of this enzyme than the sporulating mycelium. Trehalase was synthesized constitutively and its activity appears to be controlled by catabolite repression

Temperature response of trehalase from a mesophilic (Neurospora crassa) and a thermophilic (Thermomyces lanuginosus) fungus

The purified trehalases of the mesophilic fungus, Neurospora crassa, and the thermophilic fungus, Thermomyces lanuginosus, had similar temperature and pH optima for activity, but differed in molecular weight, electrophoretic mobility and Michaelis constant. At lower concentration, trehalases from both fungi were inactivated to similar extent at 60°C. While purified trehalase of T. lanuginosus was afforded protection against heat-inactivation by proteinaceous protective factor(s) present in mycelial extracts, by bovine serum albumin and by casein, these did not afford protection to N. crassa trehalase against heat inactivation. Both trehalases exhibited discontinuous Arrhenius plots with temperature of discontinuity at 40°C. The activation energy calculated from the slope of the Arrhenius plot was higher for the T. lanuginosus enzyme. The plots of apparent K m versus 1/T for trehalases of N. crassa and T. lanuginosus were linear from 30° to 60°C. The results show that purified trehalases of the mesophilic and the thermophilic fungus are distinct. Although, these exhibit similar thermostability of their catalytic function at low concentration, distinctive thermal stability characteristics of thermophilic enzyme become apparent at high protein concentration. This could be brought about in the cell by the enzyme itself, or by other proteins

Purification and properties of trehalase from the thermophilic fungus Humicola lanuginosa

Trehalase (?,?-Trehalosee gludohydrolase, EC 3.2.1.28) was partially solubilized from the thermophilic fungus Humicola lanuginosa RM-B, and purified 184-fold. The purified enzyme was optimally active at 50°C in acetate buffer at pH 5.5. It was highly specific for ?,?-trehalose and had an apparent Km = 0.4 mM at 50°C. None of the other disaccharides tested either inhibited or activated the enzyme. The molecular weight of the enzyme was around 170000. Trehalase from mycelium grown at 40 and 50°C had similar properties. The purified enzyme, in contrast to that in the crude-cell free extract, was less stable. At low concentration, purified trehalase was afforded protection against heat-inactivation by �protective factor(s)� present in mycelial extracts. The �protective factor(s)� was sensitive to proteolytic digestion. It was not diffusable and was stable to boiling for at least 30 min. Bovine serum albumin and casein also protected the enzyme from heat-inactivation

Jatropha biodiesel fueling sustainability?

Jatropha curcas is a multipurpose, drought-resistant, biofuel tree originating from Central and South America, but now growing pantropic. The tree produces seeds containing 27-40% inedible oil, which is easily convertible into biodiesel. Although even some basic agronomic characteristics of J. curcas are not yet fully understood, the plant enjoys a booming interest, which may hold the risk of unsustainable practice. Our qualitative sustainability assessment, focusing on environmental impacts and strengthened by some socio-economic issues, is quite favorable as long as only wastelands or degraded grounds are taken into J. curcas cultivation. Preliminary lifecycle energy and greenhouse gas (GHG) balances are positive, but the GHG balance is expected to be much dependent on the type of land use which is converted to J. curcas. Removing natural forest will have a severe impact on the global warming potential of the jatropha biodiesel. The cultivation intensity and the distance to markets are expected to have a significant impact on the GHG balance as well. Similar reasoning applies for the impact on soil, water, vegetation structure and biodiversity, although the latter will always depend on local circumstances. Next to biodiesel production and wasteland reclamation, J. curcas also hosts socio-economic development potential. The multipurpose character of the plant and the labor-intensive production chain are thought to be the main drivers for rural development, but are uncertain. In order to achieve best results with respect to both environmental and socio-economic issues, decisions have to be based on local environmental, economical, cultural and social characteristics. © 2007 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.FLWINinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedSpecial Issue: Sustainabilit