Multiple macroevolutionary routes to becoming a biodiversity hotspot.

Why is species diversity so unevenly distributed across different regions on Earth? Regional differences in biodiversity may stem from differences in rates of speciation and dispersal and colonization times, but these hypotheses have rarely been tested simultaneously at a global scale. Our study reveals the macroevolutionary routes that have generated hotspots of mammal and bird biodiversity by analyzing the tempo and mode of diversification and dispersal within major biogeographic realms. Hotspots in tropical realms had higher rates of speciation, whereas those in temperate realms received more immigrant species from their surrounding regions. We also found that hotspots had higher spatial complexity and energy availability, providing a link between the environment and macroevolutionary history. Our study highlights how assessing differences in macroevolutionary history can help to explain why biodiversity varies so much worldwide

The costs of saving nature: Does it make “cents”?

Clearing wild forests to grow food, fibre, and fuel products can deliver large financial gains. However, the benefits that people obtain from forests—known as ecosystem services—are rarely considered in economic calculations, partly because there are few markets onto which they can be traded. In some regions, the benefits delivered by nature might be more economically valuable. A new study maps where it is profitable to replace tropical forests with cropland and how this might change under future agricultural production and carbon prices. The findings address a major applied challenge by helping to identify sites where forest conservation can be economically viable

Seed size and its rate of evolution correlate with species diversification across angiosperms

Species diversity varies greatly across the different taxonomic groups that comprise the Tree of Life (ToL). This imbalance is particularly conspicuous within angiosperms, but is largely unexplained. Seed mass is one trait that may help clarify why some lineages diversify more than others because it confers adaptation to different environments, which can subsequently influence speciation and extinction. The rate at which seed mass changes across the angiosperm phylogeny may also be linked to diversification by increasing reproductive isolation and allowing access to novel ecological niches. However, the magnitude and direction of the association between seed mass and diversification has not been assessed across the angiosperm phylogeny. Here, we show that absolute seed size and the rate of change in seed size are both associated with variation in diversification rates. Based on the largest available angiosperm phylogenetic tree, we found that smaller-seeded plants had higher rates of diversification, possibly due to improved colonisation potential. The rate of phenotypic change in seed size was also strongly positively correlated with speciation rates, providing rare, large-scale evidence that rapid morphological change is associated with species divergence. Our study now reveals that variation in morphological traits and, importantly, the rate at which they evolve can contribute to explaining the extremely uneven distribution of diversity across the ToL.Gatsby Charitable Trust Wellcome Trust Sir Isaac Newton Trust BBSRC DTP grant to EF Miller (BB/M011194/1

The potential impact of Brexit on the energy, water and food nexus in the UK: A fuzzy cognitive mapping approach

© 2017 The Authors. Energy is one of the cornerstones essential for human life, along with other services such as water and food. Understanding how the different services in the energy-water-food (EWF) nexus interact and are perceived by different actors is key to achieving sustainability. In this paper, we derive a model of the EWF nexus using fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM). Data were collected in a two-step approach from workshops with researchers and stakeholders involved in the three focal sectors. Four FCMs were developed; one for each of the EWF sectors, and one for the interactions that create the nexus between EWF. The FCM represents the combined views of the groups who participated in the workshops, the importance and limitations of which is discussed. To demonstrate its effectiveness, the aggregated FCM was applied to predict the impacts on the EWF nexus of four scenarios under which the United Kingdom would depart from the European Union (i.e. Brexit). The FCM indicated that energy-related concepts had the largest influence on the EWF nexus and that EWF demand will decrease most under a 'hard-Brexit' scenario. The demand for energy was shown to decline relatively less than other services and was strongly associated with gross domestic product (GDP), whereas UK population size had a stronger effect on water and food demand. Overall, we found a threefold change across all concepts in scenarios without freedom of movement, contribution to the EU budget, and increased policy devolution to the UK

Climate Change Strengthens Selection for Mast Seeding in European Beech

Climate change is altering patterns of seed production worldwide [1–4], but the potential for evolutionary responses to these changes is poorly understood. Masting (synchronous, annually variable seed production by plant populations) is selectively beneficial through economies of scale that decrease the cost of reproduction per surviving offspring [5–7]. Masting is particularly widespread in temperate trees [8, 9] impacting food webs, macronutrient cycling, carbon storage, and human disease risk [10–12], so understanding its response to climate change is important. Here, we analyze inter-individual variability in plant reproductive patterns and two economies of scale—predator satiation and pollination efficiency—and document how natural selection acting upon them favors masting. Four decades of observations for European beech (Fagus sylvatica) show that predator satiation and pollination efficiency select for individuals with higher inter-annual variability of reproduction and higher reproductive synchrony between individuals. This result confirms the long-standing theory that masting, a population-level phenomenon, is generated by selection on individuals. Furthermore, recent climate-driven increases in mean seed production have increased selection pressure from seed predators but not from pollination efficiency. Natural selection is thus acting to restore the fitness benefits of masting, which have previously decreased under a warming climate [13]. However, selection will likely take far longer (centuries) than climate warming (decades), so in the short-term, tree reproduction will be reduced because masting has become less effective at satiating seed predators. Over the long-term, evolutionary responses to climate change could potentially increase inter-annual variability of seed production of masting species

Climate warming causes mast seeding to break down by reducing sensitivity to weather cues

Climate change is altering patterns of seed production worldwide with consequences for population recruitment and migration potential. For the many species that regenerate through synchronized, quasiperiodic reproductive events termed masting, these changes include decreases in the synchrony and interannual variation in seed production. This breakdown in the occurrence of masting features harms reproduction by decreasing the efficiency of pollination and increasing seed predation. Changes in masting are often paralleled by warming temperatures, but the underlying proximate mechanisms are unknown. We used a unique 39-year study of 139 European beech (Fagus sylvatica) trees that experienced masting breakdown to track the seed developmental cycle and pinpoint phases where weather effects on seed production have changed over time. A cold followed by warm summer led to large coordinated flowering efforts among plants. However, trees failed to respond to the weather signal as summers warmed and the frequency of reproductive cues changed fivefold. Less synchronous flowering resulted in less efficient pollination that further decreased the synchrony of seed maturation. As global temperatures are expected to increase this century, perennial plants that fine-tune their reproductive schedules based on temperature cues may suffer regeneration failures

Planktonic events may cause polymictic-dimictic regime shifts in temperate lakes

Water transparency affects the thermal structure of lakes, and within certain lake depth ranges, it can determine whether a lake mixes regularly (polymictic regime) or stratifies continuously (dimictic regime) from spring through summer. Phytoplankton biomass can influence transparency but the effect of its seasonal pattern on stratification is unknown. Therefore we analysed long term field data from two lakes of similar depth, transparency and climate but one polymictic and one dimictic, and simulated a conceptual lake with a hydrodynamic model. Transparency in the study lakes was typically low during spring and summer blooms and high in between during the clear water phase (CWP), caused when zooplankton graze the spring bloom. The effect of variability of transparency on thermal structure was stronger at intermediate transparency and stronger during a critical window in spring when the rate of lake warming is highest. Whereas the spring bloom strengthened stratification in spring, the CWP weakened it in summer. The presence or absence of the CWP influenced stratification duration and under some conditions determined the mixing regime. Therefore seasonal plankton dynamics, including biotic interactions that suppress the CWP, can influence lake temperatures, stratification duration, and potentially also the mixing regime

Energy input and dissipation in a temperate lake during the spring transition

ADCP and temperature chain measurements have been used to estimate the rate of energy input by wind stress to the water surface in the south basin of Windermere. The energy input from the atmosphere was found to increase markedly as the lake stratified in spring. The efficiency of energy transfer (Eff), defined as the ratio of the rate of working in near-surface waters (RW) to that above the lake surface (P10), increased from ∼0.0013 in vertically homogenous conditions to ∼0.0064 in the first 40 days of the stratified regime. A maximum value of Eff∼0.01 was observed when, with increasing stratification, the first mode internal seiche period decreased to match the diurnal wind period of 24 h. The increase in energy input, following the onset of stratification was reflected in enhancement of the mean depth-varying kinetic energy without a corresponding increase in wind forcing. Parallel estimates of energy dissipation in the bottom boundary layer, based on determination of the structure function show that it accounts for ∼15% of RW in stratified conditions. The evolution of stratification in the lake conforms to a heating stirring model which indicates that mixing accounts for ∼21% of RW. Taken together, these estimates of key energetic parameters point the way to the development of full energy budgets for lakes and shallow seas

Diel surface temperature range scales with lake size

Ecological and biogeochemical processes in lakes are strongly dependent upon water temperature. Long-term surface warming of many lakes is unequivocal, but little is known about the comparative magnitude of temperature variation at diel timescales, due to a lack of appropriately resolved data. Here we quantify the pattern and magnitude of diel temperature variability of surface waters using high-frequency data from 100 lakes. We show that the near-surface diel temperature range can be substantial in summer relative to long-term change and, for lakes smaller than 3 km2, increases sharply and predictably with decreasing lake area. Most small lakes included in this study experience average summer diel ranges in their near-surface temperatures of between 4 and 7°C. Large diel temperature fluctuations in the majority of lakes undoubtedly influence their structure, function and role in biogeochemical cycles, but the full implications remain largely unexplored

Atmospheric stilling leads to prolonged thermal stratification in a large shallow polymictic lake

To quantify the effects of recent and potential future decreases in surface wind speeds on lake thermal stratification, we apply the one-dimensional process-based model MyLake to a large, shallow, polymictic lake, Võrtsjärv. The model is validated for a 3-year period and run separately for 28 years using long-term daily atmospheric forcing data from a nearby meteorological station. Model simulations show exceptionally good agreement with observed surface and bottom water temperatures during the 3-year period. Similarly, simulated surface water temperatures for 28 years show remarkably good agreement with long-term in situ water temperatures. Sensitivity analysis demonstrates that decreasing wind speeds has resulted in substantial changes in stratification dynamics since 1982, while increasing air temperatures during the same period had a negligible effect. Atmospheric stilling is a phenomenon observed globally, and in addition to recent increases in surface air temperature, needs to be considered when evaluating the influence of climate change on lake ecosystems