The use of representative community samples to assess SARS-CoV-2 lineage competition: Alpha outcompetes Beta and wild-type in England from January to March 2021.

Genomic surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 lineages informs our understanding of possible future changes in transmissibility and vaccine efficacy and will be a high priority for public health for the foreseeable future. However, small changes in the frequency of one lineage over another are often difficult to interpret because surveillance samples are obtained using a variety of methods all of which are known to contain biases. As a case study, using an approach which is largely free of biases, we here describe lineage dynamics and phylogenetic relationships of the Alpha and Beta variant in England during the first 3 months of 2021 using sequences obtained from a random community sample who provided a throat and nose swab for rt-PCR as part of the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study. Overall, diversity decreased during the first quarter of 2021, with the Alpha variant (first identified in Kent) becoming predominant, driven by a reproduction number 0.3 higher than for the prior wild-type. During January, positive samples were more likely to be Alpha in those aged 18 to 54 years old. Although individuals infected with the Alpha variant were no more likely to report one or more classic COVID-19 symptoms compared to those infected with wild-type, they were more likely to be antibody-positive 6 weeks after infection. Further, viral load was higher in those infected with the Alpha variant as measured by cycle threshold (Ct) values. The presence of infections with non-imported Beta variant (first identified in South Africa) during January, but not during February or March, suggests initial establishment in the community followed by fade-out. However, this occurred during a period of stringent social distancing. These results highlight how sequence data from representative community surveys such as REACT-1 can augment routine genomic surveillance during periods of lineage diversity

Morphology and microstructure of chromite crystals in chromitites from the Merensky Reef (Bushveld Complex, South Africa)

The Merensky Reef of the Bushveld Complex consists of two chromitite layers separated by coarse-grained melanorite. Microstructural analysis of the chromitite layers using electron backscatter diffraction analysis (EBSD), high-resolution X-ray microtomography and crystal size distribution analyses distinguished two populations of chromite crystals: fine-grained idiomorphic and large silicate inclusion-bearing crystals. The lower chromitite layer contains both populations, whereas the upper contains only fine idiomorphic grains. Most of the inclusion-bearing chromites have characteristic amoeboidal shapes that have been previously explained as products of sintering of pre-existing smaller idiomorphic crystals. Two possible mechanisms have been proposed for sintering of chromite crystals: (1) amalgamation of a cluster of grains with the same original crystallographic orientation; and (2) sintering of randomly orientated crystals followed by annealing into a single grain. The EBSD data show no evidence for clusters of similarly oriented grains among the idiomorphic population, nor for earlier presence of idiomorphic subgrains spatially related to inclusions, and therefore are evidence against both of the proposed sintering mechanisms. Electron backscatter diffraction analysis maps show deformation-related misorientations and curved subgrain boundaries within the large, amoeboidal crystals, and absence of such features in the fine-grained population. Microstructures observed in the lower chromitite layer are interpreted as the result of deformation during compaction of the orthocumulate layers, and constitute evidence for the formation of the amoeboid morphologies at an early stage of consolidation.An alternative model is proposed whereby silicate inclusions are incorporated during maturation and recrystallisation of initially dendritic chromite crystals, formed as a result of supercooling during emplacement of the lower chromite layer against cooler anorthosite during the magma influx that formed the Merensky Reef. The upper chromite layer formed from a subsequent magma influx, and hence lacked a mechanism to form dendritic chromite. This accounts for the difference between the two layers

REACT-1 round 12 report: resurgence of SARS-CoV-2 infections in England associated with increased frequency of the Delta variant

Background England entered a third national lockdown from 6 January 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite a successful vaccine rollout during the first half of 2021, cases and hospitalisations have started to increase since the end of May as the SARS-CoV-2 Delta (B.1.617.2) variant increases in frequency. The final step of relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions in England has been delayed from 21 June to 19 July 2021. Methods The REal-time Assessment of Community Transmision-1 (REACT-1) study measures the prevalence of swab-positivity among random samples of the population of England. Round 12 of REACT-1 obtained self-administered swab collections from participants from 20 May 2021 to 7 June 2021; results are compared with those for round 11, in which swabs were collected from 15 April to 3 May 2021. Results Between rounds 11 and 12, national prevalence increased from 0.10% (0.08%, 0.13%) to 0.15% (0.12%, 0.18%). During round 12, we detected exponential growth with a doubling time of 11 (7.1, 23) days and an R number of 1.44 (1.20, 1.73). The highest prevalence was found in the North West at 0.26% (0.16%, 0.41%) compared to 0.05% (0.02%, 0.12%) in the South West. In the North West, the locations of positive samples suggested a cluster in Greater Manchester and the east Lancashire area. Prevalence in those aged 5-49 was 2.5 times higher at 0.20% (0.16%, 0.26%) compared with those aged 50 years and above at 0.08% (0.06%, 0.11%). At the beginning of February 2021, the link between infection rates and hospitalisations and deaths started to weaken, although in late April 2021, infection rates and hospital admissions started to reconverge. When split by age, the weakened link between infection rates and hospitalisations at ages 65 years and above was maintained, while the trends converged below the age of 65 years. The majority of the infections in the younger group occurred in the unvaccinated population or those without a stated vaccine history. We observed the rapid replacement of the Alpha (B.1.1.7) variant of SARS-CoV-2 with the Delta variant during the period covered by rounds 11 and 12 of the study. Discussion The extent to which exponential growth continues, or slows down as a consequence of the continued rapid roll-out of the vaccination programme, including to young adults, requires close monitoring. Data on community prevalence are vital to track the course of the epidemic and inform ongoing decisions about the timing of further lifting of restrictions in England

Dynamics of competing SARS-CoV-2 variants during the Omicron epidemic in England

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has been characterised by the regular emergence of genomic variants. With natural and vaccine-induced population immunity at high levels, evolutionary pressure favours variants better able to evade SARS-CoV-2 neutralising antibodies. The Omicron variant (first detected in November 2021) exhibited a high degree of immune evasion, leading to increased infection rates worldwide. However, estimates of the magnitude of this Omicron wave have often relied on routine testing data, which are prone to several biases. Using data from the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study, a series of cross-sectional surveys assessing prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in England, we estimated the dynamics of England’s Omicron wave (from 9 September 2021 to 1 March 2022). We estimate an initial peak in national Omicron prevalence of 6.89% (5.34%, 10.61%) during January 2022, followed by a resurgence in SARS-CoV-2 infections as the more transmissible Omicron sub-lineage, BA.2 replaced BA.1 and BA.1.1. Assuming the emergence of further distinct variants, intermittent epidemics of similar magnitudes may become the ‘new normal’

A chemical survey of exoplanets with ARIEL

Thousands of exoplanets have now been discovered with a huge range of masses, sizes and orbits: from rocky Earth-like planets to large gas giants grazing the surface of their host star. However, the essential nature of these exoplanets remains largely mysterious: there is no known, discernible pattern linking the presence, size, or orbital parameters of a planet to the nature of its parent star. We have little idea whether the chemistry of a planet is linked to its formation environment, or whether the type of host star drives the physics and chemistry of the planet’s birth, and evolution. ARIEL was conceived to observe a large number (~1000) of transiting planets for statistical understanding, including gas giants, Neptunes, super-Earths and Earth-size planets around a range of host star types using transit spectroscopy in the 1.25–7.8 μm spectral range and multiple narrow-band photometry in the optical. ARIEL will focus on warm and hot planets to take advantage of their well-mixed atmospheres which should show minimal condensation and sequestration of high-Z materials compared to their colder Solar System siblings. Said warm and hot atmospheres are expected to be more representative of the planetary bulk composition. Observations of these warm/hot exoplanets, and in particular of their elemental composition (especially C, O, N, S, Si), will allow the understanding of the early stages of planetary and atmospheric formation during the nebular phase and the following few million years. ARIEL will thus provide a representative picture of the chemical nature of the exoplanets and relate this directly to the type and chemical environment of the host star. ARIEL is designed as a dedicated survey mission for combined-light spectroscopy, capable of observing a large and well-defined planet sample within its 4-year mission lifetime. Transit, eclipse and phase-curve spectroscopy methods, whereby the signal from the star and planet are differentiated using knowledge of the planetary ephemerides, allow us to measure atmospheric signals from the planet at levels of 10–100 part per million (ppm) relative to the star and, given the bright nature of targets, also allows more sophisticated techniques, such as eclipse mapping, to give a deeper insight into the nature of the atmosphere. These types of observations require a stable payload and satellite platform with broad, instantaneous wavelength coverage to detect many molecular species, probe the thermal structure, identify clouds and monitor the stellar activity. The wavelength range proposed covers all the expected major atmospheric gases from e.g. H2O, CO2, CH4 NH3, HCN, H2S through to the more exotic metallic compounds, such as TiO, VO, and condensed species. Simulations of ARIEL performance in conducting exoplanet surveys have been performed – using conservative estimates of mission performance and a full model of all significant noise sources in the measurement – using a list of potential ARIEL targets that incorporates the latest available exoplanet statistics. The conclusion at the end of the Phase A study, is that ARIEL – in line with the stated mission objectives – will be able to observe about 1000 exoplanets depending on the details of the adopted survey strategy, thus confirming the feasibility of the main science objectives.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio

Omicron SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in England during February 2022: A series of cross-sectional community surveys

Background The Omicron wave of COVID-19 in England peaked in January 2022 resulting from the rapid transmission of the Omicron BA.1 variant. We investigate the spread and dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in the population of England during February 2022, by region, age and main SARS-CoV-2 sub-lineage. Methods In the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study we obtained data from a random sample of 94,950 participants with valid throat and nose swab results by RT-PCR during round 18 (8 February to 1 March 2022). Findings We estimated a weighted mean SARS-CoV-2 prevalence of 2.88% (95% credible interval [CrI] 2.76–3.00), with a within-round effective reproduction number (R) overall of 0.94 (0·91–0.96). While within-round weighted prevalence fell among children (aged 5 to 17 years) and adults aged 18 to 54 years, we observed a level or increasing weighted prevalence among those aged 55 years and older with an R of 1.04 (1.00–1.09). Among 1,616 positive samples with sublineages determined, one (0.1% [0.0–0.3]) corresponded to XE BA.1/BA.2 recombinant and the remainder were Omicron: N=1047, 64.8% (62.4–67.2) were BA.1; N=568, 35.2% (32.8–37.6) were BA.2. We estimated an R additive advantage for BA.2 (vs BA.1) of 0.38 (0.34–0.41). The highest proportion of BA.2 among positives was found in London. Interpretation In February 2022, infection prevalence in England remained high with level or increasing rates of infection in older people and an uptick in hospitalisations. Ongoing surveillance of both survey and hospitalisations data is required. Funding Department of Health and Social Care, England

Galaxy And Mass Assembly (GAMA): Panchromatic Data Release (far-UV --- far-IR) and the low-z energy budget

We present the GAMA Panchromatic Data Release (PDR) constituting over 230deg$^2$ of imaging with photometry in 21 bands extending from the far-UV to the far-IR. These data complement our spectroscopic campaign of over 300k galaxies, and are compiled from observations with a variety of facilities including: GALEX, SDSS, VISTA, WISE, and Herschel, with the GAMA regions currently being surveyed by VST and scheduled for observations by ASKAP. These data are processed to a common astrometric solution, from which photometry is derived for 221,373 galaxies with r<19.8 mag. Online tools are provided to access and download data cutouts, or the full mosaics of the GAMA regions in each band. We focus, in particular, on the reduction and analysis of the VISTA VIKING data, and compare to earlier datasets (i.e., 2MASS and UKIDSS) before combining the data and examining its integrity. Having derived the 21-band photometric catalogue we proceed to fit the data using the energy balance code MAGPHYS. These measurements are then used to obtain the first fully empirical measurement of the 0.1-500$\mu$m energy output of the Universe. Exploring the Cosmic Spectral Energy Distribution (CSED) across three time-intervals (0.3-1.1Gyr, 1.1-1.8~Gyr and 1.8---2.4~Gyr), we find that the Universe is currently generating $(1.5 \pm 0.3) \times 10^{35}$ h$_{70}$ W Mpc$^{-3}$, down from $(2.5 \pm 0.2) \times 10^{35}$ h$_{70}$ W Mpc$^{-3}$ 2.3~Gyr ago. More importantly, we identify significant and smooth evolution in the integrated photon escape fraction at all wavelengths, with the UV escape fraction increasing from 27(18)% at z=0.18 in NUV(FUV) to 34(23)% at z=0.06. The GAMA PDR will allow for detailed studies of the energy production and outputs of individual systems, sub-populations, and representative galaxy samples at $z<0.5$. The GAMA PDR can be found at: http://gama-psi.icrar.org

Shedding Light on the Galaxy Luminosity Function

From as early as the 1930s, astronomers have tried to quantify the statistical nature of the evolution and large-scale structure of galaxies by studying their luminosity distribution as a function of redshift - known as the galaxy luminosity function (LF). Accurately constructing the LF remains a popular and yet tricky pursuit in modern observational cosmology where the presence of observational selection effects due to e.g. detection thresholds in apparent magnitude, colour, surface brightness or some combination thereof can render any given galaxy survey incomplete and thus introduce bias into the LF. Over the last seventy years there have been numerous sophisticated statistical approaches devised to tackle these issues; all have advantages -- but not one is perfect. This review takes a broad historical look at the key statistical tools that have been developed over this period, discussing their relative merits and highlighting any significant extensions and modifications. In addition, the more generalised methods that have emerged within the last few years are examined. These methods propose a more rigorous statistical framework within which to determine the LF compared to some of the more traditional methods. I also look at how photometric redshift estimations are being incorporated into the LF methodology as well as considering the construction of bivariate LFs. Finally, I review the ongoing development of completeness estimators which test some of the fundamental assumptions going into LF estimators and can be powerful probes of any residual systematic effects inherent magnitude-redshift data.Comment: 95 pages, 23 figures, 3 tables. Now published in The Astronomy & Astrophysics Review. This version: bring in line with A&AR format requirements, also minor typo corrections made, additional citations and higher rez images adde

Galaxy And Mass Assembly (GAMA): Panchromatic Data Release (far-UV-far-IR) and the low-z energy budget

This article has been accepted for publication in MNRAS ©: 2016: the authors. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.This work is supported by resources provided by the Pawsey Supercomputing Centre with funding from the Australian Government and the Government of Western Australi