Assessment of the 2020 NICE criteria for preoperative radiotherapy in patients with rectal cancer treated by surgery alone in comparison with proven MRI prognostic factors: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND: Selection of patients for preoperative treatment in rectal cancer is controversial. The new 2020 National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidelines, consistent with the National Comprehensive Cancer Network guidelines, recommend preoperative radiotherapy for all patients except for those with radiologically staged T1-T2, N0 tumours. We aimed to assess outcomes in non-irradiated patients with rectal cancer and to stratify results on the basis of NICE criteria, compared with known MRI prognostic factors now omitted by NICE. METHODS: For this retrospective cohort study, we identified patients undergoing primary resectional surgery for rectal cancer, without preoperative radiotherapy, at Basingstoke Hospital (Basingstoke, UK) between Jan 1, 2011, and Dec 31, 2016, and at St Marks Hospital (London, UK) between Jan 1, 2007, and Dec 31, 2017. Patients with MRI-detected extramural venous invasion, MRI-detected tumour deposits, and MRI-detected circumferential resection margin involvement were categorised as MRI high-risk for recurrence (local or distant), and their outcomes (disease-free survival, overall survival, and recurrence) were compared with patients defined as high-risk according to NICE criteria (MRI-detected T3+ or MRI-detected N+ status). Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards analyses were used to compare the groups. FINDINGS: 378 patients were evaluated, with a median of 66 months (IQR 44-95) of follow up. 22 (6%) of 378 patients had local recurrence and 68 (18%) of 378 patients had distant recurrence. 248 (66%) of 378 were classified as high-risk according to NICE criteria, compared with 121 (32%) of 378 according to MRI criteria. On Kaplan-Meier analysis, NICE high-risk patients had poorer 5-year disease-free survival compared with NICE low-risk patients (76% [95% CI 70-81] vs 87% [80-92]; hazard ratio [HR] 1·91 [95% CI 1·20-3·03]; p=0·0051) but not 5-year overall survival (80% [74-84] vs 88% [81-92]; 1·55 [0·94-2·53]; p=0·077). MRI criteria separated patients into high-risk versus low-risk groups that predicted 5-year disease-free survival (66% [95% CI 57-74] vs 88% [83-91]; HR 3·01 [95% CI 2·02-4·47]; p<0·0001) and 5-year overall survival (71% [62-78] vs 89% [84-92]; 2·59 [1·62-3·88]; p<0·0001). On multivariable analysis, NICE risk assessment was not associated with either disease-free survival or overall survival, whereas MRI criteria predicted disease-free survival (HR 2·74 [95% CI 1·80-4·17]; p<0·0001) and overall survival (HR 2·44 [95% CI 1·51-3·95]; p=0·00027). 139 NICE high-risk patients who were defined as low-risk based on MRI criteria had similar disease-free survival as 118 NICE low-risk patients; therefore, 37% (139 of 378) of patients in this study cohort would have been overtreated with NICE 2020 guidelines. Of the 130 patients defined as low-risk by NICE guidelines, 12 were defined as high-risk on MRI risk stratification and would have potentially been missed for treatment. INTERPRETATION: Compared to previous guidelines, implementation of the 2020 NICE guidelines will result in significantly more patients receiving preoperative radiotherapy. High-quality MRI selects patients with good outcomes (particularly low local recurrence) without radiotherapy, with little margin for improvement. Overuse of radiotherapy could occur with this unselective approach. The high-risk group, with the most chance of benefiting from preoperative radiotherapy, is not well selected on the basis of NICE 2020 criteria and is better identified with proven MRI prognostic factors (extramural venous invasion, tumour deposits, and circumferential resection margin). FUNDING: None

Evidence for dark matter in the inner Milky Way

The ubiquitous presence of dark matter in the universe is today a central tenet in modern cosmology and astrophysics. Ranging from the smallest galaxies to the observable universe, the evidence for dark matter is compelling in dwarfs, spiral galaxies, galaxy clusters as well as at cosmological scales. However, it has been historically difficult to pin down the dark matter contribution to the total mass density in the Milky Way, particularly in the innermost regions of the Galaxy and in the solar neighbourhood. Here we present an up-to-date compilation of Milky Way rotation curve measurements, and compare it with state-of-the-art baryonic mass distribution models. We show that current data strongly disfavour baryons as the sole contribution to the galactic mass budget, even inside the solar circle. Our findings demonstrate the existence of dark matter in the inner Galaxy while making no assumptions on its distribution. We anticipate that this result will compel new model-independent constraints on the dark matter local density and profile, thus reducing uncertainties on direct and indirect dark matter searches, and will shed new light on the structure and evolution of the Galaxy.Comment: First submitted version of letter published in Nature Physics on Febuary 9, 2015: http://www.nature.com/nphys/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nphys3237.htm

Understanding long-term human ecodynamics through the lens of ecosystem collapse

Most research on long-term human ecodynamics examines changes in the size and structure of human populations, often in relation to climate change. Here we offer an alternative perspective that draws on recent progress in conservation science, examining the causes and consequences of ecosystem collapse. We identify human actions that can cause abrupt transformation of ecosystems, in relation to key mechanisms and underlying theory. Such ecosystem collapse can in turn affect human societies by altering flows of ecosystem benefits to people. In this way, human ecodynamics can be understood by separately analysing the dynamics of social and ecological sub-systems, which are reciprocally linked. Ecosystem collapse represents a perturbation of these sub-systems, and provides insights into the mechanisms underlying their respective dynamics. We illustrate this approach through four case studies, which examine the spread of agriculture during the Holocene. Four key knowledge gaps emerge through consideration of these case studies: the linkages between social and ecological sub-systems, and how these change over time; the presence of feedbacks between these sub-systems; the relationships between local- and regional-scale collapse; and the relationships with ecological recovery. Increased research on ecosystem collapse could help clarify the relative influence of environmental degradation on societal dynamics, while providing insights into resilience and sustainability. Given the outstanding societal importance of ecosystem collapse, such research could also strengthen the relevance of historical sciences to the contemporary world

WiseEye: next generation expandable and programmable camera trap platform for wildlife research

Funding: The work was supported by the RCUK Digital Economy programme to the dot.rural Digital Economy Hub; award reference: EP/G066051/1. The work of S. Newey and RJI was part funded by the Scottish Government's Rural and Environment Science and Analytical Services (RESAS). Details published as an Open Source Toolkit, PLOS Journals at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0169758Peer reviewedPublisher PD

An Operational Definition of a Statistically Meaningful Trend

Linear trend analysis of time series is standard procedure in many scientific disciplines. If the number of data is large, a trend may be statistically significant even if data are scattered far from the trend line. This study introduces and tests a quality criterion for time trends referred to as statistical meaningfulness, which is a stricter quality criterion for trends than high statistical significance. The time series is divided into intervals and interval mean values are calculated. Thereafter, r2 and p values are calculated from regressions concerning time and interval mean values. If r2≥0.65 at p≤0.05 in any of these regressions, then the trend is regarded as statistically meaningful. Out of ten investigated time series from different scientific disciplines, five displayed statistically meaningful trends. A Microsoft Excel application (add-in) was developed which can perform statistical meaningfulness tests and which may increase the operationality of the test. The presented method for distinguishing statistically meaningful trends should be reasonably uncomplicated for researchers with basic statistics skills and may thus be useful for determining which trends are worth analysing further, for instance with respect to causal factors. The method can also be used for determining which segments of a time trend may be particularly worthwhile to focus on

Brazilian gamma detection device for sentinel lymph node biopsy

OBJECTIVE: To test the effectiveness of an intra-operative gamma detection Brazilian device (IPEN) on sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) procedures. METHODS: Forty melanoma or breast cancer patients with indication for undergoing SLNB were studied. Lymphoscintigraphy was done 2 to 24 hours prior to surgery. Lymphatic mapping with vital dye and gamma detection were performed intraoperatively. For gamma detection Neoprobe ® 1500 was used followed by IPEN (equipment under test) in the first 20 patients and for the remaining half IPEN was used first to verify its ability to locate the sentinel node (SN). Measurements were taken from the radiopharmaceutical product injection site, from SN (in vivo and ex vivo) and from background. It was recorded if the SN was stained or not and if it was found easily by surgeon. RESULTS: There were 33 (82.5%) breast cancer and 7 (17.5%) melanoma patients. Ages varied from 21 to 68 year-old (median age of 46). Sex distribution was 35 (87.5%) women and 5 (12.5%) men. Sentinel node was found in all but one patient. There was no statistical difference between the reasons ex vivo/ background obtained with the measures of both equipments (p=0, 2583-ns). The SN was easily found by the surgeon with both devices. CONCLUSION: The SLNB was successfully performed using either equipment. It was possible to do SLNB with the Brazilian device developed by IPEN without prejudice for the patient.OBJETIVO: Testar a eficácia de equipamento de detecção gama intra-operatória (DGI) desenvolvido pelo IPEN (Brasil), em procedimentos de biópsia de linfonodo sentinela (BLS) no melanoma e no câncer de mama. MÉTODOS: Foram estudados 40 pacientes portadores de melanoma ou câncer de mama com indicação para realização de BLS.Todos pacientes foram submetidos à linfocintilografia e a BLS ocorreu entre 2 a 24 horas após a mesma. Concomitantemente à DGI, realizou-se o mapeamento linfático com corante vital. Foram feitas leituras com o equipamento convencional Neoprobe® 1500 e com o equipamento em teste (IPEN) dos valores de captação do sítio de injeção do radiofármaco, do LS in vivo e ex vivo e da captação de fundo. Foi registrado se o LS estava corado e se o cirurgião teve facilidade para encontrá-lo. Nos primeiros 20 pacientes utilizou-se o equipamento convencional e depois o de teste; nos outros 20, utilizou-se primeiro o equipamento em teste, com objetivo de verificar se o mesmo identificava primariamente o LS. RESULTADOS: Dos quarenta pacientes, 33 eram portadores de tumor de mama e sete de melanoma cutâneo; variação da idade: 21 a 68 anos (mediana= 46 anos); 35 mulheres e 5 homens. Em apenas um paciente o LS não foi encontrado, nem pela DGI nem pelo corante vital. Não houve diferença estatística entre as razões ex vivo/fundo obtidas com os dois equipamentos (p=0, 2583-ns). CONCLUSÃO: É possível realizar o procedimento de BLS com o equipamento brasileiro desenvolvido pelo IPEN, com facilidade e sem prejuízo para o paciente.Hospital Israelita Albert EinsteinIPENUniversidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP)Faculdade de Medicina Anhembi-MorumbiUNIFESPSciEL

Probabilistic Daily ILI Syndromic Surveillance with a Spatio-Temporal Bayesian Hierarchical Model

BACKGROUND: For daily syndromic surveillance to be effective, an efficient and sensible algorithm would be expected to detect aberrations in influenza illness, and alert public health workers prior to any impending epidemic. This detection or alert surely contains uncertainty, and thus should be evaluated with a proper probabilistic measure. However, traditional monitoring mechanisms simply provide a binary alert, failing to adequately address this uncertainty. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Based on the Bayesian posterior probability of influenza-like illness (ILI) visits, the intensity of outbreak can be directly assessed. The numbers of daily emergency room ILI visits at five community hospitals in Taipei City during 2006-2007 were collected and fitted with a Bayesian hierarchical model containing meteorological factors such as temperature and vapor pressure, spatial interaction with conditional autoregressive structure, weekend and holiday effects, seasonality factors, and previous ILI visits. The proposed algorithm recommends an alert for action if the posterior probability is larger than 70%. External data from January to February of 2008 were retained for validation. The decision rule detects successfully the peak in the validation period. When comparing the posterior probability evaluation with the modified Cusum method, results show that the proposed method is able to detect the signals 1-2 days prior to the rise of ILI visits. CONCLUSIONS: This Bayesian hierarchical model not only constitutes a dynamic surveillance system but also constructs a stochastic evaluation of the need to call for alert. The monitoring mechanism provides earlier detection as well as a complementary tool for current surveillance programs

Strongly magnetized pulsars: explosive events and evolution

Well before the radio discovery of pulsars offered the first observational confirmation for their existence (Hewish et al., 1968), it had been suggested that neutron stars might be endowed with very strong magnetic fields of $10^{10}$-$10^{14}$G (Hoyle et al., 1964; Pacini, 1967). It is because of their magnetic fields that these otherwise small ed inert, cooling dead stars emit radio pulses and shine in various part of the electromagnetic spectrum. But the presence of a strong magnetic field has more subtle and sometimes dramatic consequences: In the last decades of observations indeed, evidence mounted that it is likely the magnetic field that makes of an isolated neutron star what it is among the different observational manifestations in which they come. The contribution of the magnetic field to the energy budget of the neutron star can be comparable or even exceed the available kinetic energy. The most magnetised neutron stars in particular, the magnetars, exhibit an amazing assortment of explosive events, underlining the importance of their magnetic field in their lives. In this chapter we review the recent observational and theoretical achievements, which not only confirmed the importance of the magnetic field in the evolution of neutron stars, but also provide a promising unification scheme for the different observational manifestations in which they appear. We focus on the role of their magnetic field as an energy source behind their persistent emission, but also its critical role in explosive events.Comment: Review commissioned for publication in the White Book of "NewCompStar" European COST Action MP1304, 43 pages, 8 figure