Informing aerial total counts with demographic models: population growth of Serengeti elephants not explained purely by demography

Conservation management is strongly shaped by the interpretation of population trends. In the Serengeti ecosystem, Tanzania, aerial total counts indicate a striking increase in elephant abundance compared to all previous censuses. We developed a simple age-structured population model to guide interpretation of this reported increase, focusing on three possible causes: (1) in situ population growth, (2) immigration from Kenya, and (3) differences in counting methodologies over time. No single cause, nor the combination of two causes, adequately explained the observed population growth. Under the assumptions of maximum in situ growth and detection bias of 12.7% in previous censuses, conservative estimates of immigration from Kenya were between 250 and 1,450 individuals. Our results highlight the value of considering demography when drawing conclusions about the causes of population trends. The issues we illustrate apply to other species that have undergone dramatic changes in abundance, as well as many elephant populations

The smallest eigenvalue of Hankel matrices

Let H_N=(s_{n+m}),n,m\le N denote the Hankel matrix of moments of a positive measure with moments of any order. We study the large N behaviour of the smallest eigenvalue lambda_N of H_N. It is proved that lambda_N has exponential decay to zero for any measure with compact support. For general determinate moment problems the decay to 0 of lambda_N can be arbitrarily slow or arbitrarily fast. In the indeterminate case, where lambda_N is known to be bounded below by a positive constant, we prove that the limit of the n'th smallest eigenvalue of H_N for N tending to infinity tends rapidly to infinity with n. The special case of the Stieltjes-Wigert polynomials is discussed

Strong resonant tunneling, level repulsion and spectral type for one-dimensional adiabatic quasi-periodic Schr\"{o}dinger operators

In this paper, we consider one dimensional adiabatic quasi-periodic Schr\"{o}dinger operators in the regime of strong resonant tunneling. We show the emergence of a level repulsion phenomenon which is seen to be very naturally related to the local spectral type of the operator: the more singular the spectrum, the weaker the repulsion

Are spherulitic lacustrine carbonates an expression of large-scale mineral carbonation? : A case study from the East Kirkton Limestone, Scotland

BP Exploration Co. is thanked for funding, and particularly the Carbonate Team for supporting this research and for fruitful discussions. West Lothian Council and Scottish Natural Heritage are thanked for allowing access and permission for sampling the site. The Core Store Team at BGS Keyworth is particularly acknowledged for their assistance. Mark Anderson, Tony Sinclair (University of Hull), and Bouk Lacet (VU University Amsterdam) are thanked for technical support. Anne Kelly (SUERC) for carrying out the Strontium Isotope analyses. Mark Tyrer is thanked for his advice on PHREEQC modelling.Peer reviewedPostprin

zDALY: An adjusted indicator to estimate the burden of zoonotic diseases

The burden of human diseases in populations, or for an individual, is frequently estimated in terms of one of a number of Health Adjusted Life Years (HALYs). The Disability Adjusted Life Year (DALY) is a widely accepted HALY metric and is used by the World Health Organization and the Global Burden of Disease studies. Many human diseases are of animal origin and often cause ill health and production losses in domestic animals. The economic losses due to disease in animals are usually estimated in monetary terms. The monetary impact on animal health is not compatible with HALY approaches used to measure the impact on human health. To estimate the societal burden of zoonotic diseases that have substantial human and animal disease burden we propose methodology which can be accommodated within the DALY framework. Monetary losses due to the animal disease component of a zoonotic disease can be converted to an equivalent metric using a local gross national income per capita deflator. This essentially gives animal production losses a time trade-off for human life years. This is the time required to earn the income needed to replace that financial loss. This can then be assigned a DALY equivalent, termed animal loss equivalents (ALE), and added to the DALY associated with human ill health to give a modified DALY. This is referred to as the “zDALY”. ALEs could also be estimated using willingness-to-pay for animal health or survey tools to estimate the replacement time value for animals with high societal or emotional value (for example pets) that cannot be calculated directly using monetary worth. Thus the zDALY estimates the impact of a zoonotic disease to animal and human health. The losses due to the animal disease component of the modified DALY are straightforward to calculate. A number of worked examples such as echinococcosis, brucellosis, Q fever and cysticercosis from a diverse spectrum of countries with different levels of economic development illustrate the use of the zDALY indicator

Warp propagation in astrophysical discs

Astrophysical discs are often warped, that is, their orbital planes change with radius. This occurs whenever there is a non-axisymmetric force acting on the disc, for example the Lense-Thirring precession induced by a misaligned spinning black hole, or the gravitational pull of a misaligned companion. Such misalignments appear to be generic in astrophysics. The wide range of systems that can harbour warped discs - protostars, X-ray binaries, tidal disruption events, quasars and others - allows for a rich variety in the disc's response. Here we review the basic physics of warped discs and its implications.Comment: To be published in Astrophysical Black Holes by Haardt et al., Lecture Notes in Physics, Springer 2015. 19 pages, 2 figure

Hagedorn transition and chronology protection in string theory

We conjecture chronology is protected in string theory due to the condensation of light winding strings near closed null curves. This condensation triggers a Hagedorn phase transition, whose end-point target space geometry should be chronological. Contrary to conventional arguments, chronology is protected by an infrared effect. We support this conjecture by studying strings in the O-plane orbifold, where we show that some winding string states are unstable and condense in the non-causal region of spacetime. The one-loop string partition function has infrared divergences associated to the condensation of these states.Comment: 40 pages, 11 figures. Expanded discussion on evolution of on-shell modes and added appendi

Multi-Periodic Oscillations in Cepheids and RR Lyrae-Type Stars

Classical Cepheids and RR Lyrae-type stars are usually considered to be textbook examples of purely radial, strictly periodic pulsators. Not all the variables, however, conform to this simple picture. In this review I discuss different forms of multi-periodicity observed in Cepheids and RR Lyrae stars, including Blazhko effect and various types of radial and nonradial multi-mode oscillations.Comment: Proceedings of the 20th Stellar Pulsation Conference Series: "Impact of new instrumentation & new insights in stellar pulsations", 5-9 September 2011, Granada, Spai

Constraints on the uncertainties of entangled symmetric qubits

We derive necessary and sufficient inseparability conditions imposed on the variance matrix of symmetric qubits. These constraints are identified by examining a structural parallelism between continuous variable states and two qubit states. Pairwise entangled symmetric multiqubit states are shown here to obey these constraints. We also bring out an elegant local invariant structure exhibited by our constraints.Comment: 5 pages, REVTEX, Improved presentation; Theorem on neccessary and sufficient condition included; To appear in Phys. Lett.

Solar Magnetic Carpet I: Simulation of Synthetic Magnetograms

This paper describes a new 2D model for the photospheric evolution of the magnetic carpet. It is the first in a series of papers working towards constructing a realistic 3D non-potential model for the interaction of small-scale solar magnetic fields. In the model, the basic evolution of the magnetic elements is governed by a supergranular flow profile. In addition, magnetic elements may evolve through the processes of emergence, cancellation, coalescence and fragmentation. Model parameters for the emergence of bipoles are based upon the results of observational studies. Using this model, several simulations are considered, where the range of flux with which bipoles may emerge is varied. In all cases the model quickly reaches a steady state where the rates of emergence and cancellation balance. Analysis of the resulting magnetic field shows that we reproduce observed quantities such as the flux distribution, mean field, cancellation rates, photospheric recycle time and a magnetic network. As expected, the simulation matches observations more closely when a larger, and consequently more realistic, range of emerging flux values is allowed (4e16 - 1e19 Mx). The model best reproduces the current observed properties of the magnetic carpet when we take the minimum absolute flux for emerging bipoles to be 4e16 Mx. In future, this 2D model will be used as an evolving photospheric boundary condition for 3D non-potential modeling.Comment: 33 pages, 16 figures, 5 gif movies included: movies may be viewed at http://www-solar.mcs.st-and.ac.uk/~karen/movies_paper1