Profit participation annuities: a business profitability analysis within a demographic risk sensitive approach

The aim of the paper is to analyze the performance of a portfolio of participating life annuities, focusing on the minimum acceptable income level throughout the quantiles of the return distribution. The model, in addition to the necessary consideration of the volatility of financial markets, gives a central role to the impact of the longevity phenomenon. The sensitivity of the portfolio performance to the survival projection, the presence of a break-even point and the time of optimum performance are pointed out, under different hypotheses for the participating quota and with stochastic assumption for the accumulation and the discounting financial processes and for the survival description

Sarcopenia: age-related skeletal muscle changes from determinants to physical disability.

Human aging is characterized by skeletal muscle wasting, a debilitating condition which sets the susceptibility for diseases that directly affect the quality of life and often limit life span. Sarcopenia, i.e. the reduction of muscle mass and/or function, is the consequence of a reduction of protein synthesis and an increase in muscle protein degradation. In addition, the capacity for muscle regeneration is severely impaired in aging and this can lead to disability, particularly in patients with other concomitant diseases or organ impairment. Immobility and lack of exercise, increased levels of proinflammatory cytokines, increased production of oxygen free radicals or impaired detoxification, low anabolic hormone output, malnutrition and reduced neurological drive have been advocated as being responsible for sarcopenia. It is intriguing to notice that multiple pathways converge on skeletal muscle dysfunction, but the factors involved sometimes diverge to different pathways, thus intersecting at critical points. It is reasonable to argue that the activity of these nodes results from the net balance of regulating mechanisms, as in the case of the GH/IGF-1 axis, the testosterone and Cortisol functions, the pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines and receptors. Both genetic and epigenetic mechanisms operate in regulating the final phenotype, the extent of muscle atrophy and reduction in strength and force generation. It is widely accepted that intervention on lifestyle habits represents an affordable and practical way to modify on a large scale some detrimental outcomes of aging, and particularly sarcopenia. The identification of the molecular chain able to reverse sarcopenia is a major goal of studies on human aging

Multiple mortality modeling in Poisson Lee-Carter framework

The academic literature in longevity field has recently focused on models for detecting multiple population trends (D'Amato et al., 2012b; Njenga and Sherris, 2011; Russolillo et al., 2011, etc.). In particular, increasing interest has been shown about "related" population dynamics or "parent" populations characterized by similar socioeconomic conditions and eventually also by geographical proximity. These studies suggest dependence across multiple populations and common long-run relationships between countries (for instance, see Lazar et al., 2009). In order to investigate cross-country longevity common trends, we adopt a multiple population approach. The algorithm we propose retains the parametric structure of the Lee-Carter model, extending the basic framework to include some cross-dependence in the error term. As far as time dependence is concerned, we allow for all idiosyncratic components (both in the common stochastic trend and in the error term) to follow a linear process, thus considering a highly flexible specification for the serial dependence structure of our data. We also relax the assumption of normality, which is typical of early studies on mortality (Lee and Carter, 1992) and on factor models (see e.g., the textbook by Anderson, 1984). The empirical results show that the multiple Lee-Carter approach works well in the presence of dependence

Sex-specific mortality forecasting for UK countries: a coherent approach

This paper introduces a gender specific model for the joint mortality projection of three countries (England and Wales combined, Scotland, and Northern Ireland) of the United Kingdom. The model, called 2-tier Augmented Common Factor model, extends the classical Lee and Carter [26] and Li and Lee [32] models, with a common time factor for the whole UK population, a sex specific period factor for males and females, and a specific time factor for each country within each gender. As death counts in each subpopulation are modelled directly, a Poisson framework is used. Our results show that the 2-tier ACF model improves the in-sample fitting compared to the use of independent LC models for each subpopulation or of independent Li and Lee models for each couple of genders within each country. Mortality projections also show that the 2-tier ACF model produces coherent forecasts for the two genders within each country and different countries within each gender, thus avoiding the divergence issues arising when independent projections are used. The 2-tier ACF is further extended to include a cohort term to take into account the faster improvements of the UK ‘golden generation’

Simultaneous resection of colorectal cancer and synchronous liver metastases: what determines the risk of unfavorable outcomes? An international multicenter retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND: The use of a simultaneous resection (SIMR) in patients with synchronous colorectal liver metastases (sCRLM) has increased over the past decades. However, it remains unclear when a SIMR is beneficial and when it should be avoided. The aim of this retrospective cohort study was therefore to compare the outcomes of a SIMR for sCRLM in different settings, and to assess which factors are independently associated with unfavorable outcomes. METHODS: To perform this retrospective cohort study, patients with sCRLM undergoing SIMR (2004-2019) were extracted from an international multicenter database, and their outcomes were compared after stratification according to the type of liver and colorectal resection performed. Factors associated with unfavorable outcomes were identified through multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: Overall, 766 patients were included, encompassing colorectal resections combined with a major liver resection (n=122), minor liver resection in the anterolateral (n=407), or posterosuperior segments ('Technically major', n=237). Minor and technically major resections, compared to major resections, were more often combined with a rectal resection (29.2 and 36.7 vs. 20.5%, respectively, both P=0.003) and performed fully laparoscopic (22.9 and 23.2 vs. 6.6%, respectively, both P = 0.003). Major and technically major resections, compared to minor resections, were more often associated with intraoperative transfusions (42.9 and 38.8 vs. 20%, respectively, both P = 0.003) and unfavorable incidents (9.6 and 9.8 vs. 3.3%, respectively, both P≤0.063). Major resections were associated, compared to minor and technically major resections, with a higher overall morbidity rate (64.8 vs. 50.4 and 49.4%, respectively, both P≤0.024) and a longer length of stay (12 vs. 10 days, both P≤0.042). American Society of Anesthesiologists grades ≥3 [adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 1.671, P=0.015] and undergoing a major liver resection (aOR: 1.788, P=0.047) were independently associated with an increased risk of severe morbidity, while undergoing a left-sided colectomy was associated with a decreased risk (aOR: 0.574, P=0.013). CONCLUSIONS: SIMR should primarily be reserved for sCRLM patients in whom a minor or technically major liver resection would suffice and those requiring a left-sided colectomy. These findings should be confirmed by randomized studies comparing SIMR with staged resections

Computational framework for longevity risk management

Longevity risk threatens the financial stability of private and government sponsored defined benefit pension systems as well as social security schemes, in an environment already characterized by persistent low interest rates and heightened financial uncertainty. The mortality experience of countries in the industrialized world would suggest a substantial age-time interaction, with the two dominant trends affecting different age groups at different times. From a statistical point of view, this indicates a dependence structure. It is observed that mortality improvements are similar for individuals of contiguous ages (Wills and Sherris, Integrating financial and demographic longevity risk models: an Australian model for financial applications, Discussion Paper PI-0817, 2008). Moreover, considering the dataset by single ages, the correlations between the residuals for adjacent age groups tend to be high (as noted in Denton et al., J Population Econ 18:203-227, 2005). This suggests that there is value in exploring the dependence structure, also across time, in other words the inter-period correlation. In this research, we focus on the projections of mortality rates, contravening the most commonly encountered dependence property which is the "lack of dependence" (Denuit et al., Actuarial theory for dependent risks: measures. Orders and models, Wiley, New York, 2005). By taking into account the presence of dependence across age and time which leads to systematic over-estimation or under-estimation of uncertainty in the estimates (Liu and Braun, J Probability Stat, 813583:15, 2010), the paper analyzes a tailor-made bootstrap methodology for capturing the spatial dependence in deriving confidence intervals for mortality projection rates. We propose a method which leads to a prudent measure of longevity risk, avoiding the structural incompleteness of the ordinary simulation bootstrap methodology which involves the assumption of independence

IL-6 secretion in osteoarthritis patients is mediated by chondrocyte-synovial fibroblast cross-talk and is enhanced by obesity

Increasing evidence suggests that inflammation plays a central role in driving joint pathology in certain patients with osteoarthritis (OA). Since many patients with OA are obese and increased adiposity is associated with chronic inflammation, we investigated whether obese patients with hip OA exhibited differential pro-inflammatory cytokine signalling and peripheral and local lymphocyte populations, compared to normal weight hip OA patients. No differences in either peripheral blood or local lymphocyte populations were found between obese and normal-weight hip OA patients. However, synovial fibroblasts from obese OA patients were found to secrete greater amounts of the pro-inflammatory cytokine IL-6, compared to those from normal-weight patients (p < 0.05), which reflected the greater levels of IL-6 detected in the synovial fluid of the obese OA patients. Investigation into the inflammatory mechanism demonstrated that IL-6 secretion from synovial fibroblasts was induced by chondrocyte-derived IL-6. Furthermore, this IL-6 inflammatory response, mediated by chondrocyte-synovial fibroblast cross-talk, was enhanced by the obesity-related adipokine leptin. This study suggests that obesity enhances the cross-talk between chondrocytes and synovial fibroblasts via raised levels of the pro-inflammatory adipokine leptin, leading to greater production of IL-6 in OA patients

Formación en Nutrición: de la universidad a la especialidad

De cara a las nuevas normas del Espacio Europeo de Educación Superior en su relación con los estudios de nutrición tanto en los diferentes grados (medicina, farmacia, nutrición, enfermería) como en el postgrado, se estructura el VIIo FORO Abbott-SENPE. Se efectúa una reflexión multiprofesional y multidisciplinar sobre la actual situación de la formación universitaria en nutrición, sus posibilidades y límites. También se valora el papel de la formación continuada, del sistema de residencia, de los másteres y de las sociedades científicas. Se concluye en instar a las autoridades académicas, a la Comisión Nacional de Especialidades, a los responsables de formación continuada y a las sociedades científicas a reflexionar sobre la importancia de los estudios relacionados con la nutrición, alimentación y dietética tanto en el pregrado como en el postgrado y a implementarlos y desarrollarlos en sus áreas de influencia

The Role of Liver-Directed Surgery in Patients With Hepatic Metastasis From Primary Breast Cancer: a Multi-Institutional Analysis

BACKGROUND: Data on surgical management of breast liver metastasis are limited. We sought to determine the safety and long-term outcome of patients undergoing hepatic resection of breast cancer liver metastases (BCLM). METHODS: Using a multi-institutional, international database, 131 patients who underwent surgery for BCLM between 1980 and 2014 were identified. Clinicopathologic and outcome data were collected and analyzed. RESULTS: Median tumor size of the primary breast cancer was 2.5 cm (IQR: 2.0-3.2); 58 (59.8%) patients had primary tumor nodal metastasis. The median time from diagnosis of breast cancer to metastasectomy was 34 months (IQR: 16.8-61.3). The mean size of the largest liver lesion was 3.0 cm (2.0-5.0); half of patients (52.0%) had a solitary metastasis. An R0 resection was achieved in most cases (90.8%). Postoperative morbidity and mortality were 22.8% and 0%, respectively. Median and 3-year overall-survival was 53.4 months and 75.2%, respectively. On multivariable analysis, positive surgical margin (HR 3.57, 95% CI 1.40-9.16; p = 0.008) and diameter of the BCLM (HR 1.03, 95% CI 1.01-1.06; p = 0.002) remained associated with worse OS. DISCUSSION: In selected patients, resection of breast cancer liver metastases can be done safely and a subset of patients may derive a relatively long survival, especially from a margin negative resection.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio