The Making of the NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18)

The NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) is a probabilistic hazard model for tsunamis generated by earthquakes. It covers the coastlines of the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean, and connected seas (NEAM). NEAMTHM18 was designed as a three-phase project. The first two phases were dedicated to the model development and hazard calculations, following a formalized decision-making process based on a multiple-expert protocol. The third phase was dedicated to documentation and dissemination. The hazard assessment workflow was structured in Steps and Levels. There are four Steps: Step-1) probabilistic earthquake model; Step-2) tsunami generation and modeling in deep water; Step-3) shoaling and inundation; Step-4) hazard aggregation and uncertainty quantification. Each Step includes a different number of Levels. Level-0 always describes the input data; the other Levels describe the intermediate results needed to proceed from one Step to another. Alternative datasets and models were considered in the implementation. The epistemic hazard uncertainty was quantified through an ensemble modeling technique accounting for alternative models’ weights and yielding a distribution of hazard curves represented by the mean and various percentiles. Hazard curves were calculated at 2,343 Points of Interest (POI) distributed at an average spacing of ∼20 km. Precalculated probability maps for five maximum inundation heights (MIH) and hazard intensity maps for five average return periods (ARP) were produced from hazard curves. In the entire NEAM Region, MIHs of several meters are rare but not impossible. Considering a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years (ARP≈2,475 years), the POIs with MIH >5 m are fewer than 1% and are all in the Mediterranean on Libya, Egypt, Cyprus, and Greece coasts. In the North-East Atlantic, POIs with MIH >3 m are on the coasts of Mauritania and Gulf of Cadiz. Overall, 30% of the POIs have MIH >1 m. NEAMTHM18 results and documentation are available through the TSUMAPS-NEAM project website (http://www.tsumaps-neam.eu/), featuring an interactive web mapper. Although the NEAMTHM18 cannot substitute in-depth analyses at local scales, it represents the first action to start local and more detailed hazard and risk assessments and contributes to designing evacuation maps for tsunami early warning.publishedVersio

30 years in the life of an active submarine volcano: A time-lapse bathymetry study of the Kick-‘em-Jenny Volcano, Lesser Antilles

Effective monitoring is an essential part of identifying and mitigating volcanic hazards. In the submarine environment this is more difficult than onshore because observations are typically limited to land-based seismic networks and infrequent shipboard surveys. Since the first recorded eruption in 1939, the Kick-‘em-Jenny (KeJ) volcano, located 8km off northern Grenada, has been the source of 13 episodes of T-phase signals. These distinctive seismic signals, often coincident with heightened body-wave seismicity, are interpreted as extrusive eruptions. They have occurred with a recurrence interval of around a decade, yet direct confirmation of volcanism has been rare. By conducting new bathymetric surveys in 2016 and 2017 and reprocessing 4 legacy datasets spanning 30 years we present a clearer picture of the development of KeJ through time. Processed grids with a cell size of 5m and vertical precision on the order of 1-4m allow us to correlate T-phase episodes with morphological changes at the volcano's edifice. In the time-period of observation 7.09x106 m3 of material has been added through constructive volcanism – yet 5 times this amount has been lost through landslides. Limited recent magma production suggests that KeJ may be susceptible to larger eruptions with longer repeat times than have occurred during the study interval, behavior more similar to sub-aerial volcanism in the arc than previously thought. T-phase signals at KeJ have a varied origin and are unlikely to be solely the result of extrusive submarine eruptions. Our results confirm the value of repeat swath bathymetry surveys in assessing submarine volcanic hazards

Post-eruptive flooding of Santorini caldera and implications for tsunami generation

Caldera-forming eruptions of island volcanoes generate tsunamis by the interaction of different eruptive phenomena with the sea. Such tsunamis are a major hazard, but forward models of their impacts are limited by poor understanding of source mechanisms. The caldera-forming eruption of Santorini in the Late Bronze Age is known to have been tsunamigenic, and caldera collapse has been proposed as a mechanism. Here, we present bathymetric and seismic evidence showing that the caldera was not open to the sea during the main phase of the eruption, but was flooded once the eruption had finished. Inflow of water and associated landsliding cut a deep, 2.0-2.5 km(3), submarine channel, thus filling the caldera in less than a couple of days. If, as at most such volcanoes, caldera collapse occurred syn-eruptively, then it cannot have generated tsunamis. Entry of pyroclastic flows into the sea, combined with slumping of submarine pyroclastic accumulations, were the main mechanisms of tsunami production

A two-dimensional geostatistic method to simulate the precision of abundance estimates

In this paper, we outline a geostatistic method to simulate the relative precision (coefficient of variation, CV) of total abundance estimates of one species in a predetermined, stratified area when it is appropriate to treat the observations within each stratum as realizations of a second-order homogenous and ergodic random process. To model the spatial correlations, a variogram is fitted to normal-transformed values of the original observations. Based on the variogram and its corresponding covariance matrix, extensive simulations on a fine grid that includes the sample locations provide random realizations of the process. The normal values are back-transformed to original observation space by nonparametric reversed bootstrap, as well as by a parametric Weibull approach. The method is applied to a total of 1069 shrimp (Pandalus borealis) abundance observations from 11 annual surveys in the Barents Sea (1992–2002) where a 20 nautical mile sampling grid has been applied. On average, the CV was estimated to be 6.4% for the applied regular grid when the simulations were conditional on the observations, compared with 8.1% when the sampling locations within each of the six strata were random

Greenland halibut observed by video in front of survey trawl: behaviour, escapement, and spatial pattern

Abstract Video recordings of Greenland halibut (Reinhardtius hippoglossoides) were made at eight trawl stations in Svalbard waters in August 2002. The recordings were made down to 600 m depth using artificial light. A method for calculating actual fish length from the video image was established and the recordings were analysed with respect to length-dependent behaviour, escapement and spatial pattern. All Greenland halibut observed were either lying on the bottom or swimming in a horizontal position close to the bottom, and there was no tendency to schooling. Individual fish reacted in an ordered way to the approaching trawl and were herded along the ends of the ground-gear. Escapement under the ground-gear was higher for smaller fish, while some larger individuals were apparently able to escape the trawl ahead of the observed region.