A class of nonparametric bivariate survival function estimators for randomly censored and truncated data

This paper proposes a class of nonparametric estimators for the bivariate survival function estimation under both random truncation and random censoring. In practice, the pair of random variables under consideration may have certain parametric relationship. The proposed class of nonparametric estimators uses such parametric information via a data transformation approach and thus provides more accurate estimates than existing methods without using such information. The large sample properties of the new class of estimators and a general guidance of how to find a good data transformation are given. The proposed method is also justified via a simulation study and an application on an economic data set

Dynamic & Cyclic behaviour of ballast in the long term as determined in Cedex's track box

The 6 cylinder servo-hydraulic loading system of CEDEX's track box (250 kN, 50 Hz) has been recently implemented with a new piezoelectric loading system (±20 kN, 300 Hz) allowing the incorporation of low amplitude high frequency dynamic load time histories to the high amplitude low frequency quasi-static load time histories used so far in the CEDEX's track box to assess the inelastic long term behavior of ballast under mixed traffic in conventional and high- speed lines. This presentation will discuss the results obtained in the first long-duration test performed at CEDEX's track box using simultaneously both loading systems, to simulate the pass-by of 6000 freight vehicles (1M of 225 kN axle loads) travelling at a speed of 120 km/h over a line with vertical irregularities corresponding to a medium quality lin3e level. The superstructure of the track tested at full scale consisted of E 60 rails, stiff rail pads (mayor que 450 kN/mm), B90.2 sleepers with USP 0.10 N/mm and a 0.35 m thick ballast layer of ADIF first class. A shear wave velocity of 250 m/s can be assumed for the different layers of the track sub-base. The ballast long-term settlements will be compared with those obtained in a previous long-duration quasi- static test performed in the same track, for the RIVAS [EU co-funded] project, in which no dynamic loads where considered. Also, the results provided by a high diameter cyclic triaxial cell with ballast tested in full size will be commented. Finally, the progress made at CEDEX's Geotechnical Laboratory to reproduce numerically the long term behavior of ballast will be discussed

Impact of unseasonable flooding on women's food security and mental health in rural Sylhet, Bangladesh: a longitudinal observational study

Background Climate change will lead to more frequent and intensive flooding. In April, 2017, unseasonably early flooding led to the inundation of low-lying cropland before the rice harvest in northeastern Bangladesh. We describe coping strategies and quantify short-term and medium-term effects of flooding events on food security and depressive symptoms of women. Methods This observational study is part of the cluster-randomised Food and Agricultural Approaches to Reducing Malnutrition trial (FAARM; NCT02505711). Women self-reported flooding exposure on behalf of their households when surveyed (approximately 6 months after the event). Remote sensing analysis was used to detect the extent of the flooding. We collected data on household food security at baseline, depressive symptoms 4–5 months before the flooding, and coping strategies immediately after the event. We followed up on these outcome measurements for depressive symptoms and food security for up to 2·5 years after the flooding event. We used multilevel regression adjusting for intervention allocation and pre-flooding measures to quantify the flood's effect on household food security and women's mental health. Findings The FAARM trial included 2700 young women in 96 settlements in rural Sylhet, Bangladesh. 1335 (56%) of 2405 women reported that their household being greatly affected, with many losing a large part of their rice harvest. Borrowing money with interest was the most common coping strategy, with households paying back on average 1·5 times the borrowed amount. Greatly affected households had higher odds of food insecurity, with a decreasing effect with increasing time after the flood (odds ratio: 2·4 [p<0·0001] 0·5 years after; 1·6 [p<0·0001] 2·0 years after]; and 1·3 [p=0·012] 2·5 years after). Women in such households also had 1·45 times higher odds of depression (p=0·0001) 2·5 years after the flooding event. Interpretation The 2017 flooding event negatively affected food security and the mental health of women in rural Sylhet, Bangladesh, and few affected women received formal government support. To reduce the impact of future floods, livelihood adaptations and expansion of financial protection programmes are essential measures to pursue. Funding German Federal Ministry for Education and Research (Berlin, Germany) and UK Department for International Development (London, UK)

Distributed automated manufacturing of pluripotent stem cell products

Establishing how to effectively manufacture cell therapies is an industry-level problem. Decentralised manufacturing is of increasing importance, and its challenges are recognised by healthcare regulators with deviations and comparability issues receiving specific attention from them. This paper is the first to report the deviations and other risks encountered when implementing the expansion of human pluripotent stem cells (hPSCs) in an automated three international site–decentralised manufacturing setting. An experimental demonstrator project expanded a human embryonal carcinoma cell line (2102Ep) at three development sites in France, Germany and the UK using the CompacT SelecT (Sartorius Stedim, Royston, UK) automated cell culture platform. Anticipated variations between sites spanned material input, features of the process itself and production system details including different quality management systems and personnel. Where possible, these were pre-addressed by implementing strategies including standardisation, cell bank mycoplasma testing and specific engineering and process improvements. However, despite such measures, unexpected deviations occurred between sites including software incompatibility and machine/process errors together with uncharacteristic contaminations. Many only became apparent during process proving or during the process run. Further, parameters including growth rate and viability discrepancies could only be determined post-run, preventing ‘live’ corrective measures. The work confirms the critical nature of approaches usually taken in Good Manufacturing Practice (GMP) manufacturing settings and especially emphasises the requirement for monitoring steps to be included within the production system. Real-time process monitoring coupled with carefully structured quality systems is essential for multiple site working including clarity of decision-making roles. Additionally, an over-reliance upon post-process visual microscopic comparisons has major limitations; it is difficult for non-experts to detect deleterious culture changes and such detection is slow

Demography and Dispersal Ability of a Threatened Saproxylic Beetle: A Mark-Recapture Study of the Rosalia Longicorn (Rosalia alpina)

The Rosalia longicorn or Alpine longhorn (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) is an endangered and strictly protected icon of European saproxylic biodiversity. Despite its popularity, lack of information on its demography and mobility may compromise adoption of suitable conservation strategies. The beetle experienced marked retreat from NW part of its range; its single population survives N of the Alps and W of the Carpathians. The population inhabits several small patches of old beech forest on hill-tops of the Ralska Upland, Czech Republic. We performed mark-recapture study of the population and assessed its distribution pattern. Our results demonstrate the high mobility of the beetle, including dispersal between hills (up to 1.6 km). The system is thus interconnected; it contained ∼2000 adult beetles in 2008. Estimated population densities were high, ranging between 42 and 84 adult beetles/hectare a year. The population survives at a former military-training ground despite long-term isolation and low cover of mature beech forest (∼1%). Its survival could be attributed to lack of forestry activities between the 1950s and 1990s, slow succession preventing canopy closure and undergrowth expansion, and probably also to the distribution of habitat patches on conspicuous hill-tops. In order to increase chances of the population for long term survival, we propose to stop clear-cuts of old beech forests, increase semi-open beech woodlands in areas currently covered by conifer plantations and active habitat management at inhabited sites and their wider environs