Exploiting road traffic data for very short term load forecasting in smart grids

If accurate short term prediction of electricity consumption is available, the Smart Grid infrastructure can rapidly and reliably react to changing conditions. The economic importance of accurate predictions justifies research for more complex forecasting algorithms. This paper proposes road traffic data as a new input dimension that can help improve very short term load forecasting. We explore the dependencies between power demand and road traffic data and evaluate the predictive power of the added dimension compared with other common features, such as historical load and temperature profiles

are ecologically harmful alien species associated with particular introduction pathways?

Prioritization of introduction pathways is seen as an important component of the management of biological invasions. We address whether established alien plants, mammals, freshwater fish and terrestrial invertebrates with known ecological impacts are associated with particular introduction pathways (release, escape, contaminant, stowaway, corridor and unaided). We used the information from the European alien species database DAISIE (www.europe- aliens.org) supplemented by the EASIN catalogue (European Alien Species Information Network), and expert knowledge. Plants introduced by the pathways release, corridor and unaided were disproportionately more likely to have ecological impacts than those introduced as contaminants. In contrast, impacts were not associated with particular introduction pathways for invertebrates, mammals or fish. Thus, while for plants management strategies should be targeted towards the appropriate pathways, for animals, management should focus on reducing the total number of taxa introduced, targeting those pathways responsible for high numbers of introductions. However, regardless of taxonomic group, having multiple introduction pathways increases the likelihood of the species having an ecological impact. This may simply reflect that species introduced by multiple pathways have high propagule pressure and so have a high probability of establishment. Clearly, patterns of invasion are determined by many interacting factors and management strategies should reflect this complexity

Scientific and normative foundations for the valuation of alien-species impacts: thirteen core principles

Biological invasions cause many impacts that differ widely in how they are perceived. We argue that many conflicts in the valuation of the impacts of alien species are attributable to differences in the framing of the issue and implicit assumptions—such conflicts are often not acknowledged. We present 13 principles that can help guide valuation and therefore inform the management of alien species. Seven of these relate to the science domain, representing aspects of change caused by alien species that can be measured or otherwise assessed using scientific methods. The remaining six principles invoke values, risk perception, and environmental ethics, but also cognitive and motivational decision biases. We illustrate the consequences of insufficient appreciation of these principles. Finally, we provide guidance rooted in political agreements and environmental ethics for improving the consideration of the consequences of these principles and present appropriate tools for management decisions relating to alien species

The effect of cross-boundary management on the trajectory to commonness in biological invasions

The number of alien species introduced and undergoing range expansion in novel environments is steadily increasing, with important consequences for native ecosystems. The efficacy of management planning and decision making to limit such invasions can be improved by understanding how interventions will impact the population dynamics of recently introduced species. To do so, here we expand on a typological framework that enables the classification of populations over time into 10 categories of commonness, and apply it to a spatially discrete metapopulation with heterogeneous abundance across spatial units (patches). We use this framework to assess the effect of cross-boundary management on the capacity of a metapopulation with different demographic and dispersal characteristics, including time lags in population growth, to become common. We demonstrate this framework by simulating a simple theoretical metapopulation model capable of exploring a range of environments, species characteristics, and management actions. Management can vary in the efficacy of propagule interception between patches, and in the synchronisation of the implementation of these measures across patches (i.e. if management is implemented simultaneously across patches). Simulations show that poor interception efficacy that only modestly reduces the number of propagules entering a given spatial unit cannot be compensated for by strong management synchronisation between spatial units. Management synchronisation will nonetheless result in a reduction in rates of spread once a critical threshold of interception efficacy has been met. Finally, time lags in population growth that may result in delayed spread are an important aspect to be considered in management as they can amplify the efficacy of management. Our results demonstrate how a typological framework of categories of commonness can be used to provide practical insights for the management of biological invasions

Theoretical distribution of foreign genes in different crossbred generations

International audienc

Crossing Frontiers in Tackling Pathways of Biological Invasions

Substantial progress has been made in understanding how pathways underlie and mediate biological invasions. However, key features of their role in invasions remain poorly understood, available knowledge is widely scattered, and major frontiers in research and management are insufficiently characterized. We review the state of the art, highlight recent advances, identify pitfalls and constraints, and discuss major challenges in four broad fields of pathway research and management: pathway classification, application of pathway information, management response, and management impact. We present approaches to describe and quantify pathway attributes (e.g., spatiotemporal changes, proxies of introduction effort, environmental and socioeconomic contexts) and how they interact with species traits and regional characteristics. We also provide recommendations for a research agenda with particular focus on emerging (or neglected) research questions and present new analytical tools in the context of pathway research and managemen

Troubling travellers: are ecologically harmful alien species associated with particular introduction pathways?

Prioritization of introduction pathways is seen as an important component of the management of biological invasions. We address whether established alien plants, mammals, freshwater fish and terrestrial invertebrates with known ecological impacts are associated with particular introduction pathways (release, escape, contaminant, stowaway, corridor and unaided). We used the information from the European alien species database DAISIE (www.europe-aliens.org) supplemented by the EASIN catalogue (European Alien Species Information Network), and expert knowledge. Plants introduced by the pathways release, corridor and unaided were disproportionately more likely to have ecological impacts than those introduced as contaminants. In contrast, impacts were not associated with particular introduction pathways for invertebrates, mammals or fish. Thus, while for plants management strategies should be targeted towards the appropriate pathways, for animals, management should focus on reducing the total number of taxa introduced, targeting those pathways responsible for high numbers of introductions. However, regardless of taxonomic group, having multiple introduction pathways increases the likelihood of the species having an ecological impact. This may simply reflect that species introduced by multiple pathways have high propagule pressure and so have a high probability of establishment. Clearly, patterns of invasion are determined by many interacting factors and management strategies should reflect this complexity