795 research outputs found
The EMU sovereign-debt crisis: Fundamentals, expectations and contagion
We offer a detailed empirical investigation of the European sovereign debt crisis based on the theoretical model by Arghyrou and Tsoukalas (2010). We find evidence of a marked shift in market pricing behaviour from a âconvergence-tradeâ model before August 2007 to one driven by macro-fundamentals and international risk thereafter. The majority of EMU countries have experienced contagion from Greece. There is no evidence of significant speculation effects originating from CDS markets. Finally, the escalation of the Greek debt crisis since November 2009 is confirmed as the result of an unfavourable shift in countryspecific market expectations. Our findings highlight the necessity of structural, competitiveness-inducing reforms in periphery EMU countries and institutional reforms at the EMU level enhancing intra-EMU economic monitoring and policy co-ordination.euro-area, crisis, spreads, fundamentals, expectations, contagion, speculation.
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Determinants of Sovereign Bond Yield Spreads in the EMU. An Optimal Currency Area Perspective
In the light of the recent financial crisis, we take a panel cointegration approach that allows for structural breaks to the analysis of the determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads in nine economies of the European Monetary Union. While we find evidence for a level break in the cointegrating relationship, we do not find empirical support for a regime shift and hence for a change in the pricing of the determinants of sovereign spreads. Moreover, results show that (i) fiscal imbalances (namely expected government debt-to-GDP differentials) are the main long-run drivers of sovereign spreads; (ii) liquidity risks and cumulated inflation differentials have non-negligible weights; but (iii) all conclusions are ultimately connected to whether or not the sample of countries is composed of members of an Optimal Currency Area (OCA). In particular, we establish (i) that results are overall driven by those countries not passing the OCA test; and (ii) that investors closely monitor and severely punish the deterioration of expected debt positions of those economies exhibiting significant gaps in competitiveness
Sovereign spreads and financial market behavior before and during the crisis
JEL: C23, E43, E62, F34, G01, G12, H60This paper aims at shedding some light on the mechanisms of pricing the EMU countriesâ
sovereign bonds in financial markets. Employing the Augmented Mean Group (AMG)
estimator, we find that major changes have occurred in terms of variables underlying
sovereign risk. Since 2009, macroeconomic and fiscal fundamentals has started to play a more
important role, but only those that capture domestic demand evolution. In contrast, price
competitiveness seems less important. The second conclusion lies in reversed attitude towards
banking sector imbalances, as compares to earlier period. One of the problems addressed
concerns the horizon of projected macroeconomic and fiscal variables taken into account. The
paper presents some evidence that financial markets have become more myopic and started to
rely on short-term forecasts, whilst they had tended to encompass longer-term forecast
horizon before the crisis
Catholic Higher Education and Latino(a) Students: Exploring the Experience of University Undergraduates
The experience of Latino(a) undergraduates at Notre Dame was the focus of this study. In general, the students had a positive experience at the university, but one that included challenges, including physical separation from family and familiar community. Family and spiritual supports were important to the Latino(a) students as they coped with difficulties they encountered at the university, than for a comparable sample of Anglo students attending Notre Dame
A aquisição de competĂȘncias de liderança no ensino secundĂĄrio e a sua transferibilidade para o ensino superior: o caso da regiĂŁo Alto TrĂĄs-os-Montes, Portugal
Este estudo de investigação tem trĂȘs objectivos fundamentais. 1) Analisar as competĂȘncias adquiridas no percurso do Ensino SecundĂĄrio por uma amostra constituĂda por alunos que frequentavam o 1Âș ano do nĂvel de Ensino Superior; 2) Avaliar a transferibilidade de competĂȘncias do Ensino SecundĂĄrio para o Ensino Superior; 3) Determinar as diferenças existentes entre gĂ©neros e classes etĂĄrias em oito domĂnios de competĂȘncias: a) Auto-gestĂŁo; b) RelaçÔes interpessoais; c) Resolução de problemas/tomada de decisĂ”es; d) Desenvolvimento cognitivo/anĂĄlise crĂtica; e) Organização e planeamento; f) auto-confiança; g) Sensibilidade para a diversidade; e, i) Tecnologia. Participaram neste estudo de investigação 439 alunos (do 1Âș ano) e 18 alunos (do 2Âș ano) tendo os participantes revelado ter adquirido, durante o Ensino SecundĂĄrio, nĂveis acima do moderado nas oito ĂĄreas de competĂȘncia analisadas. Foram encontradas diferenças estaticamente significativas entre os gĂ©neros no domĂnio de competĂȘncia âdiversidadeâ. Entrevistas realizadas a 18 alunos a frequentarem o 2Âș ano do Ensino Superior na mesma instituição indicaram que grande parte das competĂȘncias adquiridas no Ensino SecundĂĄrio sĂŁo fulcrais para um bom desempenho no inicio do percurso UniversitĂĄrio, ocorrendo o princĂpio da transferibilidade harmoniosa de competĂȘncias entre nĂveis de ensino. This research study has three fundamental objectives. 1) Analyse the abilities acquired by students who now attend Higher education; 2) Evaluate the transferability of abilities from the Secondary Education to Higher Education; 3) Determine the existing differences between gender and age classes in eight different abilities: ) Self management; b) Interpersonal relationships; c) Conflict resolution/decision making; d) Cognitive development/analysis; e) Organization and planning; f) Self-confidence; g) Sensitivity to diversity; and, i) Technology. The participants in this study were 439 pupils (1st year) and 18 (2nd year) and revealed having acquired, during Secondary Education, levels above of the moderate in the eight analyzed areas of ability. Statistic significant differences between gender and age had been found in the ability domain of "diversity". Semi structured interviews conducted with eighteen pupils attending the 2Âș year of Higher Education had indicated that great part of the abilities acquired in Secondary Education is determinant for a good performance in the beginning of the University experience, occurring the principle of the harmonious transferability of abilities between education levels
On the time-varying relationship between EMU sovereign spreads and their determinants
We use a dynamic multipath general-to-specific algorithm to capture structural instability in the link between euro area sovereign bond yield spreads against Germany and their underlying determinants over the period January 1999 â August 2011. We offer new evidence suggesting a significant
heterogeneity across countries, both in terms of the risk factors determining spreads over time as well as in terms of the magnitude of their impact on spreads. Our findings suggest that the relationship between euro area sovereign risk and the underlying fundamentals is strongly time-varying, turning from inactive to active since the onset of the global financial crisis and further intensifying during the sovereign debt crisis. As a general rule, the set of financial and macro spreadsâ determinants in the euro area is rather unstable but generally becomes richer and stronger in significance as the crisis evolves
Lost in Translation
The ramifications of Proposition 227, legislation that threatened to eliminate bilingual education passed by California in 1998, sparked a nationwide debate about the validity of education that non-English speaking students were receiving in a bilingual classroom versus that of an English-only classroom. While there was a deluge of arguments regarding the efficiency of English comprehension in the two classroom environments, what many commentators on the issue overlooked was the difference in the retention of the studentsâ identities
The determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads in the EMU
We use a panel of euro area countries to assess the determinants of long-term sovereign bond yield spreads over the period 1999.01-2010.12. We find that, unlike the period preceding the global financial crisis, European government bond yield spreads are wellexplained by macro- and fiscal fundamentals over the crisis period. We also find that the menu of macro and fiscal risks priced by markets has been significantly enriched since March 2009, including the risk of the crisisâ transmission among EMU member states, international risk and liquidity risk. Finally, we find that sovereign credit ratings are statistically significant in explaining spreads, yet compared to macro- and fiscal fundamentals their role is limited
Determinants of the Portuguese government bond yield spread
A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA â School of Business and EconomicsThis paper seeks to find out the determinants of the 10 year Portuguese government bond yield spread for the period between the January of 2010 and December of 2012.
Fundamental factors (debt ratio and government balance in % of GDP) and contagion effects are the main drivers behind the surge of the yield spread during the first two years of the sample. Liquidity risk (measured by the bid-ask spread) and the size of the banking system are also significant determinants. These same factors however, have no significance in explaining the drop in the yield spread during the final seven months of the sample
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