Probabilistic Prediction of the Next Earthquake in the NAFZ (North Anatolian Fault Zone), Turkey

Depremler rassal olaylar olduğu için bu alanda istatistiksel metotların kullanımı yaygındır. İstatistiksel metotlar risk problemlerinin çözümlenmesinde kullanılır. Sismik risk ve deprem meydana gelme olasılıkları istatistiksel olasılık dağılımıları yardımıyla tahmin edilebilir. Bu çalışmada Weibull, Log-normal, Log-lojistik, Üstel ve Gamma dağılımları kullanılarak deprem verisini en iyi şekilde temsil edecek olasılık dağılımı bulunmaya çalışılmıştır. Bu amaçla etkin olasılık dağılımının belirlenmesinde Kolmogorov-Smirnov test istatistiği kullanılmıştır. Çalışma sonucunda Weibull dağılımının diğer olasılık dağılımlarına gore deprem verisini en iyi şekilde temsil ettiği görülmüştür.Statistical methods are useful for characterizing seismic hazard because earthquakes are, for all practical purposes, random phenomena. They provide additional insights to the seismic hazard or risk problem. Seismic risk and earthquake occurrence probabilities can be estimated by using probability distributions. In this study Weibull, Log-normal, Log-logistic, Exponential and Gamma distributions have been examined for which one has the best fit for the given data. Kolmogorov-Smirnov test statistics was used at the research of the distribution best represents earthquake data. At the end of the test, it has been detected that Weibull distribution is more appropriate than other distributions

Probabilistic Prediction of the Next Earthquake in the NAFZ (North Anatolian Fault Zone), Turkey

Depremler rassal olaylar olduğu için bu alanda istatistiksel metotların kullanımı yaygındır. İstatistiksel metotlar risk problemlerinin çözümlenmesinde kullanılır. Sismik risk ve deprem meydana gelme olasılıkları istatistiksel olasılık dağılımıları yardımıyla tahmin edilebilir. Bu çalışmada Weibull, Log-normal, Log-lojistik, Üstel ve Gamma dağılımları kullanılarak deprem verisini en iyi şekilde temsil edecek olasılık dağılımı bulunmaya çalışılmıştır. Bu amaçla etkin olasılık dağılımının belirlenmesinde Kolmogorov-Smirnov test istatistiği kullanılmıştır. Çalışma sonucunda Weibull dağılımının diğer olasılık dağılımlarına gore deprem verisini en iyi şekilde temsil ettiği görülmüştür.Statistical methods are useful for characterizing seismic hazard because earthquakes are, for all practical purposes, random phenomena. They provide additional insights to the seismic hazard or risk problem. Seismic risk and earthquake occurrence probabilities can be estimated by using probability distributions. In this study Weibull, Log-normal, Log-logistic, Exponential and Gamma distributions have been examined for which one has the best fit for the given data. Kolmogorov-Smirnov test statistics was used at the research of the distribution best represents earthquake data. At the end of the test, it has been detected that Weibull distribution is more appropriate than other distributions

İZMİR METROSUNUN KONUT FİYATLARI ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİLERİNİN HEDONİK FİYAT YÖNTEMİ İLE MODELLENMESİ

Bu çalışmada İzmir metrosu örneğinde, metro yatırımının konut-yerleşim birimlerinin değeri üzerine etkileri incelenmektedir. Yer seçimi teorisi, bir kentte ulaşım altyapısındaki yatırımın gayrimenkul değerleri üzerine kapitalize olacağını söylemektedir. Buna göre, bir ulaşım yatırımı, ev ile iş arasında gidip gelme zamanında ve ulaşım maliyetinde azalmaya neden olması beklenmektedir. Dolayısıyla, transit istasyonuna yakın konumlanmış gayrimenkul birimlerinin değerinin, artan erişilebilirlik faktöründen dolayı daha yüksek olması beklenmektedir. Çalışmada hedonik fiyat modeli, ulaşım yatırımının konut fiyatına olan etkisinin ölçülmesinde kullanılmıştır. Model iki farklı fonksiyonel form altında (lineer ve log-lineer) uygulanmıştır. Model sonuçları ulaşım altyapısında ki yatırımın konut fiyatlarını, etki alanı içinde arttırdığını göstermektedir

Reducing the environmental impact of surgery on a global scale: systematic review and co-prioritization with healthcare workers in 132 countries

Abstract Background Healthcare cannot achieve net-zero carbon without addressing operating theatres. The aim of this study was to prioritize feasible interventions to reduce the environmental impact of operating theatres. Methods This study adopted a four-phase Delphi consensus co-prioritization methodology. In phase 1, a systematic review of published interventions and global consultation of perioperative healthcare professionals were used to longlist interventions. In phase 2, iterative thematic analysis consolidated comparable interventions into a shortlist. In phase 3, the shortlist was co-prioritized based on patient and clinician views on acceptability, feasibility, and safety. In phase 4, ranked lists of interventions were presented by their relevance to high-income countries and low–middle-income countries. Results In phase 1, 43 interventions were identified, which had low uptake in practice according to 3042 professionals globally. In phase 2, a shortlist of 15 intervention domains was generated. In phase 3, interventions were deemed acceptable for more than 90 per cent of patients except for reducing general anaesthesia (84 per cent) and re-sterilization of ‘single-use’ consumables (86 per cent). In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for high-income countries were: introducing recycling; reducing use of anaesthetic gases; and appropriate clinical waste processing. In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for low–middle-income countries were: introducing reusable surgical devices; reducing use of consumables; and reducing the use of general anaesthesia. Conclusion This is a step toward environmentally sustainable operating environments with actionable interventions applicable to both high– and low–middle–income countries

Prevalence, associated factors and outcomes of pressure injuries in adult intensive care unit patients: the DecubICUs study

Funder: European Society of Intensive Care Medicine; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100013347Funder: Flemish Society for Critical Care NursesAbstract: Purpose: Intensive care unit (ICU) patients are particularly susceptible to developing pressure injuries. Epidemiologic data is however unavailable. We aimed to provide an international picture of the extent of pressure injuries and factors associated with ICU-acquired pressure injuries in adult ICU patients. Methods: International 1-day point-prevalence study; follow-up for outcome assessment until hospital discharge (maximum 12 weeks). Factors associated with ICU-acquired pressure injury and hospital mortality were assessed by generalised linear mixed-effects regression analysis. Results: Data from 13,254 patients in 1117 ICUs (90 countries) revealed 6747 pressure injuries; 3997 (59.2%) were ICU-acquired. Overall prevalence was 26.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] 25.9–27.3). ICU-acquired prevalence was 16.2% (95% CI 15.6–16.8). Sacrum (37%) and heels (19.5%) were most affected. Factors independently associated with ICU-acquired pressure injuries were older age, male sex, being underweight, emergency surgery, higher Simplified Acute Physiology Score II, Braden score 3 days, comorbidities (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, immunodeficiency), organ support (renal replacement, mechanical ventilation on ICU admission), and being in a low or lower-middle income-economy. Gradually increasing associations with mortality were identified for increasing severity of pressure injury: stage I (odds ratio [OR] 1.5; 95% CI 1.2–1.8), stage II (OR 1.6; 95% CI 1.4–1.9), and stage III or worse (OR 2.8; 95% CI 2.3–3.3). Conclusion: Pressure injuries are common in adult ICU patients. ICU-acquired pressure injuries are associated with mainly intrinsic factors and mortality. Optimal care standards, increased awareness, appropriate resource allocation, and further research into optimal prevention are pivotal to tackle this important patient safety threat

Correction to: Prevalence, associated factors and outcomes of pressure injuries in adult intensive care unit patients: the DecubICUs study

The original version of this article unfortunately contained a mistake

Prevalence, associated factors and outcomes of pressure injuries in adult intensive care unit patients: the DecubICUs study

Funder: European Society of Intensive Care Medicine; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100013347Funder: Flemish Society for Critical Care NursesAbstract: Purpose: Intensive care unit (ICU) patients are particularly susceptible to developing pressure injuries. Epidemiologic data is however unavailable. We aimed to provide an international picture of the extent of pressure injuries and factors associated with ICU-acquired pressure injuries in adult ICU patients. Methods: International 1-day point-prevalence study; follow-up for outcome assessment until hospital discharge (maximum 12 weeks). Factors associated with ICU-acquired pressure injury and hospital mortality were assessed by generalised linear mixed-effects regression analysis. Results: Data from 13,254 patients in 1117 ICUs (90 countries) revealed 6747 pressure injuries; 3997 (59.2%) were ICU-acquired. Overall prevalence was 26.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] 25.9–27.3). ICU-acquired prevalence was 16.2% (95% CI 15.6–16.8). Sacrum (37%) and heels (19.5%) were most affected. Factors independently associated with ICU-acquired pressure injuries were older age, male sex, being underweight, emergency surgery, higher Simplified Acute Physiology Score II, Braden score 3 days, comorbidities (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, immunodeficiency), organ support (renal replacement, mechanical ventilation on ICU admission), and being in a low or lower-middle income-economy. Gradually increasing associations with mortality were identified for increasing severity of pressure injury: stage I (odds ratio [OR] 1.5; 95% CI 1.2–1.8), stage II (OR 1.6; 95% CI 1.4–1.9), and stage III or worse (OR 2.8; 95% CI 2.3–3.3). Conclusion: Pressure injuries are common in adult ICU patients. ICU-acquired pressure injuries are associated with mainly intrinsic factors and mortality. Optimal care standards, increased awareness, appropriate resource allocation, and further research into optimal prevention are pivotal to tackle this important patient safety threat

The Development of Western-Type Large-Scale Consumption Areas in Turkey and Legal and Structural Regulation Efforts in Urban Retail Environments*

The retail sector has been experiencing a rapid and continuouschange worldwide. There have also been profoundchanges in Turkey, especially after the 1980s. Both the retailsector and the urban retail environments have been alteredradically. One of the most significant indicators of this changeis the proliferation of western-type large-scale retail developments.Past experiences in developed countries have shownthat the uncontrolled development of large-scale retail areasresults in some undesired socioeconomic and physical outcomes,such as decline in the cultural and commercial activitiesof city centers, damage in existing retail workforce structure,and change in local retail hierarchy, nearby land uses,traffic loads and original architectural identity. Many countrieshave put into practice restrictive and regulatory policiesto prevent these negative effects. As similar transformationshave also been realized in Turkish retail environments, manyinstitutions think that similar legal regulations must be implementedin Turkey as well. The present study investigates theongoing retail change within the Turkish context, explores thelegal and structural regulatory policies of the Organizationfor Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries,and critically discusses the appropriate retail regulationpolicies for Turkey

Kuzey Anadolu fay zonunda (NAFZ) gelecek depremlerin olasılıksal tahmini

Statistical methods are useful for characterizing seismic hazard because earthquakes are, for all practical purposes, random phenomena. They provide additional insights to the seismic hazard or risk problem. Seismic risk and earthquake occurrence probabilities can be estimated by using probability distributions. In this study Weibull, Log-normal, Log-logistic, Exponential and Gamma distributions have been examined for which one has the best fit for the given data. Kolmogorov-Smirnov test statistics was used at the research of the distribution best represents earthquake data. At the end of the test, it has been detected that Weibull distribution is more appropriate than other distributions.Depremler rassal olaylar olduğu için bu alanda istatistiksel metotların kullanımı yaygındır. İstatistiksel metotlar risk problemlerinin çözümlenmesinde kullanılır. Sismik risk ve deprem meydana gelme olasılıkları istatistiksel olasılık dağılımıları yardımıyla tahmin edilebilir. Bu çalışmada Weibull, Log-normal, Log-lojistik, Üstel ve Gamma dağılımları kullanılarak deprem verisini en iyi şekilde temsil edecek olasılık dağılımı bulunmaya çalışılmıştır. Bu amaçla etkin olasılık dağılımının belirlenmesinde Kolmogorov-Smirnov test istatistiği kullanılmıştır. Çalışma sonucunda Weibull dağılımının diğer olasılık dağılımlarına gore deprem verisini en iyi şekilde temsil ettiği görülmüştür