Simplified Models for LHC New Physics Searches

This document proposes a collection of simplified models relevant to the design of new-physics searches at the LHC and the characterization of their results. Both ATLAS and CMS have already presented some results in terms of simplified models, and we encourage them to continue and expand this effort, which supplements both signature-based results and benchmark model interpretations. A simplified model is defined by an effective Lagrangian describing the interactions of a small number of new particles. Simplified models can equally well be described by a small number of masses and cross-sections. These parameters are directly related to collider physics observables, making simplified models a particularly effective framework for evaluating searches and a useful starting point for characterizing positive signals of new physics. This document serves as an official summary of the results from the "Topologies for Early LHC Searches" workshop, held at SLAC in September of 2010, the purpose of which was to develop a set of representative models that can be used to cover all relevant phase space in experimental searches. Particular emphasis is placed on searches relevant for the first ~50-500 pb-1 of data and those motivated by supersymmetric models. This note largely summarizes material posted at http://lhcnewphysics.org/, which includes simplified model definitions, Monte Carlo material, and supporting contacts within the theory community. We also comment on future developments that may be useful as more data is gathered and analyzed by the experiments.Comment: 40 pages, 2 figures. This document is the official summary of results from "Topologies for Early LHC Searches" workshop (SLAC, September 2010). Supplementary material can be found at http://lhcnewphysics.or

Navigating the dilemmas of climate policy in Europe: evidence from policy evaluation studies

Climate change is widely recognised as a �wicked� policy problem. Agreeing and implementing governance responses is proving extremely difficult. Policy makers in many jurisdictions now emphasise their ambition to govern using the best available evidence. One obvious source of such evidence is the evaluations of the performance of existing policies. But to what extent do these evaluations provide insights into the difficult dilemmas that governors typically encounter? We address this question by reviewing the content of 262 evaluation studies of European climate policies in the light of six kinds of dilemma found in the governance literature. We are interested in what these studies say about the performance of European climate policies and in their capacity to inform evidence-based policy-making. We find that the evaluations do arrive at common findings: that climate change is framed as a problem of market and/or state failure; that voluntary measures tend to be ineffective; that market-based instruments tend to be regressive; that EU-level policies have driven climate policies in the latecomer EU Member States; and that lack of monitoring and weak enforcement are major obstacles to effective policy implementation. However, we also conclude that the evidence base these studies represent is surprisingly weak for such a high profile area. There is too little systematic climate policy evaluation work in the EU to support systematic evidence-based policy making. This reduces the scope for sound policy making in the short run and is a constraint to policy learning in the longer term.JRC.H.2 - Climate chang

Host galaxy identification for supernova surveys

Host galaxy identification is a crucial step for modern supernova (SN) surveys such as the Dark Energy Survey (DES) and the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST), which will discover SNe by the thousands. Spectroscopic resources are limited, so in the absence of real-time SN spectra these surveys must rely on host galaxy spectra to obtain accurate redshifts for the Hubble diagram and to improve photometric classification of SNe. In addition, SN luminosities are known to correlate with host-galaxy properties. Therefore, reliable identification of host galaxies is essential for cosmology and SN science. We simulate SN events and their locations within their host galaxies to develop and test methods for matching SNe to their hosts. We use both real and simulated galaxy catalog data from the Advanced Camera for Surveys General Catalog and MICECATv2.0, respectively. We also incorporate "hostless" SNe residing in undetected faint hosts into our analysis, with an assumed hostless rate of 5%. Our fully automated algorithm is run on catalog data and matches SNe to their hosts with 91% accuracy. We find that including a machine learning component, run after the initial matching algorithm, improves the accuracy (purity) of the matching to 97% with a 2% cost in efficiency (true positive rate). Although the exact results are dependent on the details of the survey and the galaxy catalogs used, the method of identifying host galaxies we outline here can be applied to any transient survey

Stable carbon Isotope evidence for neolithic and bronze age crop water management in the eastern mediterranean and southwest asia

In a large study on early crop water management, stable carbon isotope discrimination was determined for 275 charred grain samples from nine archaeological sites, dating primarily to the Neolithic and Bronze Age, from the Eastern Mediterranean and Western Asia. This has revealed that wheat (Triticum spp.) was regularly grown in wetter conditions than barley (Hordeum sp.), indicating systematic preferential treatment of wheat that may reflect a cultural preference for wheat over barley. Isotopic analysis of pulse crops (Lens culinaris, Pisum sativum and Vicia ervilia) indicates cultivation in highly varied water conditions at some sites, possibly as a result of opportunistic watering practices. The results have also provided evidence for local land-use and changing agricultural practices

Life and living in advanced age: a cohort study in New Zealand - Te Puāwaitanga o Nga Tapuwae Kia Ora Tonu, LiLACS NZ: Study protocol

The number of people of advanced age (85 years and older) is increasing and health systems may be challenged by increasing health-related needs. Recent overseas evidence suggests relatively high levels of wellbeing in this group, however little is known about people of advanced age, particularly the indigenous Māori, in Aotearoa, New Zealand. This paper outlines the methods of the study Life and Living in Advanced Age: A Cohort Study in New Zealand. The study aimed to establish predictors of successful advanced ageing and understand the relative importance of health, frailty, cultural, social & economic factors to successful ageing for Māori and non-Māori in New Zealand

Prevalence of maternal smoking and environmental tobacco smoke exposure during pregnancy and impact on birth weight: retrospective study using Millennium Cohort

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Meta-analyses of studies investigating the impact of maternal environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) on birth weight have not produced robust findings. Although, ante natal ETS exposure probably reduces infant's birth weights, the scale of this exposure remains unknown. We conducted a large, cohort study to assess the impact of ETS exposure on birth weight whilst adjusting for the many factors known to influence this.</p> <p>Method</p> <p>Retrospective study using interview data from parents of 18,297 children born in 2000/2001 and living in the UK 9 months afterwards (the Millennium Cohort Survey). Comparison of birth weight, sex and gestational age specific (SGA) z score, birth before 37 weeks and birth weight < 2.5 Kg (LBW) in infants born to women exposed to: i) no tobacco smoke, ii) ETS only and iii) maternal smoking whilst pregnant.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>13% of UK infants were exposed to ETS and 36% to maternal smoking ante natally. Compared to no ante natal tobacco smoke exposure, domestic ETS lowered infants' adjusted mean birth weights by 36 g (95% CI, 5 g to 67 g) and this effect showed a dose-response relationship. ETS exposure also caused non-significant increases in the adjusted risks of Low Birth Weight (<2.5 Kg) [OR 1.23 (95% CI, 0.96 to 1.58) and premature birth [OR 1.21 (95% CI, 0.96 to 1.51)], whilst the impacts of maternal smoking were greater and statistically significant.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>UK prevalences of domestic ETS exposure and maternal smoking in pregnancy remain high and ETS exposure lowers infants' birth weights.</p

Safety and efficacy of arimoclomol for inclusion body myositis: a multicentre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial

BACKGROUND: Inclusion body myositis is the most common progressive muscle wasting disease in people older than 50 years, with no effective drug treatment. Arimoclomol is an oral co-inducer of the cellular heat shock response that was safe and well-tolerated in a pilot study of inclusion body myositis, reduced key pathological markers of inclusion body myositis in two in-vitro models representing degenerative and inflammatory components of this disease, and improved disease pathology and muscle function in mutant valosin-containing protein mice. In the current study, we aimed to assess the safety, tolerability, and efficacy of arimoclomol in people with inclusion body myositis. METHODS: This multicentre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled study enrolled adults in specialist neuromuscular centres in the USA (11 centres) and UK (one centre). Eligible participants had a diagnosis of inclusion body myositis fulfilling the European Neuromuscular Centre research diagnostic criteria 2011. Participants were randomised (1:1) to receive either oral arimoclomol 400 mg or matching placebo three times daily (1200 mg/day) for 20 months. The randomisation sequence was computer generated centrally using a permuted block algorithm with randomisation numbers masked to participants and trial staff, including those assessing outcomes. The primary endpoint was the change from baseline to month 20 in the Inclusion Body Myositis Functional Rating Scale (IBMFRS) total score, assessed in all randomly assigned participants, except for those who were randomised in error and did not receive any study medication, and those who did not meet inclusion criteria. Safety analyses included all randomly assigned participants who received at least one dose of study medication. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02753530, and is completed. FINDINGS: Between Aug 16, 2017 and May 22, 2019, 152 participants with inclusion body myositis were randomly assigned to arimoclomol (n=74) or placebo (n=78). One participant was randomised in error (to arimoclomol) but not treated, and another (assigned to placebo) did not meet inclusion criteria. 150 participants (114 [76%] male and 36 [24%] female) were included in the efficacy analyses, 73 in the arimoclomol group and 77 in the placebo group. 126 completed the trial on treatment (56 [77%] and 70 [90%], respectively) and the most common reason for treatment discontinuation was adverse events. At month 20, mean IBMFRS change from baseline was not statistically significantly different between arimoclomol and placebo (-3·26, 95% CI -4·15 to -2·36 in the arimoclomol group vs -2·26, -3·11 to -1·41 in the placebo group; mean difference -0·99 [95% CI -2·23 to 0·24]; p=0·12). Adverse events leading to discontinuation occurred in 13 (18%) of 73 participants in the arimoclomol group and four (5%) of 78 participants in the placebo group. Serious adverse events occurred in 11 (15%) participants in the arimoclomol group and 18 (23%) in the placebo group. Elevated transaminases three times or more of the upper limit of normal occurred in five (7%) participants in the arimoclomol group and one (1%) in the placebo group. Tubulointerstitial nephritis was observed in one (1%) participant in the arimoclomol group and none in the placebo group. INTERPRETATION: Arimoclomol did not improve efficacy outcomes, relative to placebo, but had an acceptable safety profile in individuals with inclusion body myositis. This is one of the largest trials done in people with inclusion body myositis, providing data on disease progression that might be used for subsequent clinical trial design. FUNDING: US Food and Drug Administration Office of Orphan Products Development and Orphazyme

Rationale, design and methods for a community-based study of clustering and cumulative effects on chronic disease process and their effects on ageing: the Busselton healthy ageing study

Background: The global trend of increased life expectancy and increased prevalence of chronic and degenerative diseases will impact on health systems. To identify effective intervention and prevention strategies, greater understanding of the risk factors for and cumulative effects of chronic disease processes and their effects on function and quality of life is needed. The Busselton Healthy Ageing Study aims to enhance understanding of ageing by relating the clustering and interactions of common chronic conditions in adults to function. Longitudinal (3–5 yearly) follow-up is planned. Methods/design: Phase I (recruitment) is a cross-sectional community-based prospective cohort study involving up to 4,000 ‘Baby Boomers’ (born from 1946 to 1964) living in the Busselton Shire, Western Australia. The study protocol involves a detailed, self-administered health and risk factor questionnaire and a range of physical assessments including body composition and bone density measurements, cardiovascular profiling (blood pressure, ECG and brachial pulse wave velocity), retinal photography, tonometry, auto-refraction, spirometry and bronchodilator responsiveness, skin allergy prick tests, sleep apnoea screening, tympanometry and audiometry, grip strength, mobility, balance and leg extensor strength. Cognitive function and reserve, semantic memory, and pre-morbid intelligence are assessed. Participants provide a fasting blood sample for assessment of lipids, blood glucose, C-reactive protein and renal and liver function, and RNA, DNA and serum are stored. Clinically relevant results are provided to all participants. The prevalence of risk factors, symptoms and diagnosed illness will be calculated and the burden of illness will be estimated based on the observed relationships and clustering of symptoms and illness within individuals. Risk factors for combinations of illness will be compared with those for single illnesses and the relation of combinations of illness and symptoms to cognitive and physical function will be estimated. Discussion: This study will enable a thorough characterization of multiple disease processes and their risk factors within a community-based sample of individuals to determine their singular, interactive and cumulative effects on ageing. The project will provide novel cross-sectional data and establish a cohort that will be used for longitudinal analyses of the genetic, lifestyle and environmental factors that determine whether an individual ages well or with impairment

Understanding the genetic complexity of puberty timing across the allele frequency spectrum

Pubertal timing varies considerably and is associated with later health outcomes. We performed multi-ancestry genetic analyses on ~800,000 women, identifying 1,080 signals for age at menarche. Collectively, these explained 11% of trait variance in an independent sample. Women at the top and bottom 1% of polygenic risk exhibited ~11 and ~14-fold higher risks of delayed and precocious puberty, respectively. We identified several genes harboring rare loss-of-function variants in ~200,000 women, including variants in ZNF483, which abolished the impact of polygenic risk. Variant-to-gene mapping approaches and mouse gonadotropin-releasing hormone neuron RNA sequencing implicated 665 genes, including an uncharacterized G-protein-coupled receptor, GPR83, which amplified the signaling of MC3R, a key nutritional sensor. Shared signals with menopause timing at genes involved in DNA damage response suggest that the ovarian reserve might signal centrally to trigger puberty. We also highlight body size-dependent and independent mechanisms that potentially link reproductive timing to later life disease