A stochastic individual based model for the growth of a stand of Japanese knotweed including mowing as a management technique

Invasive alien species are a growing threat for environment and health. They also have a major economic impact, as they can damage many infrastructures. The Japanese knotweed (Fallopia japonica), present in North America, Northern and Central Europe as well as in Australia and New Zealand, is listed by the World Conservation Union as one of the world's worst invasive species. So far, most models have dealt with how the invasion spreads without management. This paper aims at providing a model able to study and predict the dynamics of a stand of Japanese knotweed taking into account mowing as a management technique. The model we propose is stochastic and individual-based, which allows us taking into account the behaviour of individuals depending on their size and location, as well as individual stochasticity. We set plant dynamics parameters thanks to a calibration with field data, and study the influence of the initial population size, the mean number of mowing events a year and the management project duration on mean area and mean number of crowns of stands. In particular, our results provide the sets of parameters for which it is possible to obtain the stand eradication, and the minimal duration of the management project necessary to achieve this latter

Modelling the spread of Wolbachia in spatially heterogeneous environments

The endosymbiont Wolbachia infects a large number of insect species and is capable of rapid spread when introduced into a novel host population. The bacteria spread by manipulating their hosts' reproduction, and their dynamics are influenced by the demographic structure of the host population and patterns of contact between individuals. Reaction–diffusion models of the spatial spread of Wolbachia provide a simple analytical description of their spatial dynamics but do not account for significant details of host population dynamics. We develop a metapopulation model describing the spatial dynamics of Wolbachia in an age-structured host insect population regulated by juvenile density-dependent competition. The model produces similar dynamics to the reaction–diffusion model in the limiting case where the host's habitat quality is spatially homogeneous and Wolbachia has a small effect on host fitness. When habitat quality varies spatially, Wolbachia spread is usually much slower, and the conditions necessary for local invasion are strongly affected by immigration of insects from surrounding regions. Spread is most difficult when variation in habitat quality is spatially correlated. The results show that spatial variation in the density-dependent competition experienced by juvenile host insects can strongly affect the spread of Wolbachia infections, which is important to the use of Wolbachia to control insect vectors of human disease and other pests

Stay by thy neighbor? Social organization determines the efficiency of biodiversity markets with spatial incentives

Market-based conservation instruments, such as payments, auctions or tradable permits, are environmental policies that create financial incentives for landowners to engage in voluntary conservation on their land. But what if ecological processes operate across property boundaries and land use decisions on one property influence ecosystem functions on neighboring sites? This paper examines how to account for such spatial externalities when designing market-based conservation instruments. We use an agent-based model to analyze different spatial metrics and their implications on land use decisions in a dynamic cost environment. The model contains a number of alternative submodels which differ in incentive design and social interactions of agents, the latter including coordinating as well as cooperating behavior of agents. We find that incentive design and social interactions have a strong influence on the spatial allocation and the costs of the conservation market.Comment: 11 pages, 6 figure

Predators reduce extinction risk in noisy metapopulations

Background Spatial structure across fragmented landscapes can enhance regional population persistence by promoting local “rescue effects.” In small, vulnerable populations, where chance or random events between individuals may have disproportionately large effects on species interactions, such local processes are particularly important. However, existing theory often only describes the dynamics of metapopulations at regional scales, neglecting the role of multispecies population dynamics within habitat patches. Findings By coupling analysis across spatial scales we quantified the interaction between local scale population regulation, regional dispersal and noise processes in the dynamics of experimental host-parasitoid metapopulations. We find that increasing community complexity increases negative correlation between local population dynamics. A potential mechanism underpinning this finding was explored using a simple population dynamic model. Conclusions Our results suggest a paradox: parasitism, whilst clearly damaging to hosts at the individual level, reduces extinction risk at the population level

Dependability Model of Automated Intelligent Regenerative Life Support System for Space Missions

Long-duration human space missions require intelligent regenerative life support systems that can recycle resources and automatically manage failures. This paper explores using Petri nets to model the reliability and complex interactions of such closed-loop systems. An architecture consisting of primary systems, backups, and consumable reserves is outlined. The automation system that controls everything is described. Petri nets can capture concurrency, failure modes, redundancy, and dynamic behavior. A modular modeling methodology is presented to develop hierarchical Petri net models that scale in fidelity. Elementary fragments represent failures and redundancy. Subsystem modules can be substituted for more detailed models. Analysis and simulation assess system reliability and failure response. This supports designing ultra-reliable systems to safely sustain human life in space

Ecological Modeling of Aedes aegypti (L.) Pupal Production in Rural Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand

Background - Aedes aegypti (L.) is the primary vector of dengue, the most important arboviral infection globally. Until an effective vaccine is licensed and rigorously administered, Ae. aegypti control remains the principal tool in preventing and curtailing dengue transmission. Accurate predictions of vector populations are required to assess control methods and develop effective population reduction strategies. Ae. aegypti develops primarily in artificial water holding containers. Release recapture studies indicate that most adult Ae. aegypti do not disperse over long distances. We expect, therefore, that containers in an area of high development site density are more likely to be oviposition sites and to be more frequently used as oviposition sites than containers that are relatively isolated from other development sites. After accounting for individual container characteristics, containers more frequently used as oviposition sites are likely to produce adult mosquitoes consistently and at a higher rate. To this point, most studies of Ae. aegypti populations ignore the spatial density of larval development sites. Methodology - Pupal surveys were carried out from 2004 to 2007 in rural Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand. In total, 84,840 samples of water holding containers were used to estimate model parameters. Regression modeling was used to assess the effect of larval development site density, access to piped water, and seasonal variation on container productivity. A varying-coefficients model was employed to account for the large differences in productivity between container types. A two-part modeling structure, called a hurdle model, accounts for the large number of zeroes and overdispersion present in pupal population counts. Findings - The number of suitable larval development sites and their density in the environment were the primary determinants of the distribution and abundance of Ae. aegypti pupae. The productivity of most container types increased significantly as habitat density increased. An ecological approach, accounting for development site density, is appropriate for predicting Ae. aegypti population levels and developing efficient vector control program

Automation and robotics for the Space Exploration Initiative: Results from Project Outreach

A total of 52 submissions were received in the Automation and Robotics (A&R) area during Project Outreach. About half of the submissions (24) contained concepts that were judged to have high utility for the Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) and were analyzed further by the robotics panel. These 24 submissions are analyzed here. Three types of robots were proposed in the high scoring submissions: structured task robots (STRs), teleoperated robots (TORs), and surface exploration robots. Several advanced TOR control interface technologies were proposed in the submissions. Many A&R concepts or potential standards were presented or alluded to by the submitters, but few specific technologies or systems were suggested

System upgrade: realising the vision for UK education

A report summarising the findings of the TEL programme in the wider context of technology-enhanced learning and offering recommendations for future strategy in the area was launched on 13th June at the House of Lords to a group of policymakers, technologists and practitioners chaired by Lord Knight. The report – a major outcome of the programme – is written by TEL director Professor Richard Noss and a team of experts in various fields of technology-enhanced learning. The report features the programme’s 12 recommendations for using technology-enhanced learning to upgrade UK education

Simulating microbial degradation of organic matter in a simple porous system using the 3-D diffusion-based model MOSAIC

This paper deals with the simulation of microbial degradation of organic matter in soil within the pore space at a microscopic scale. Pore space was analysed with micro-computed tomography and described using a sphere network coming from a geometrical modelling algorithm. The biological model was improved regarding previous work in order to include the transformation of dissolved organic compounds and diffusion processes. We tested our model using experimental results of a simple substrate decomposition experiment (fructose) within a simple medium (sand) in the presence of different bacterial strains. Separate incubations were carried out in microcosms using five different bacterial communities at two different water potentials of −10 and −100 cm of water. We calibrated the biological parameters by means of experimental data obtained at high water content, and we tested the model without changing any parameters at low water content. Same as for the experimental data, our simulation results showed that the decrease in water content caused a decrease of mineralization rate. The model was able to simulate the decrease of connectivity between substrate and microorganism due the decrease of water content