Universal Confidence Sets for Solutions of Optimization Problems

We consider random approximations to deterministic optimization problems. The objective function and the constraint set can be approximated simultaneously. Relying on concentration-of-measure results we derive universal con¯dence sets for the constraint set, the optimal value and the solution set. Special attention is paid to solution sets which are not single-valued. Many statistical estimators being solutions to random optimization problems, the approach can also be employed to derive con¯dence sets for constrained estimation problems

Universal confidence sets - estimation and relaxation

In the paper "Universal confidence sets for solutions of optimization problems" we provided universal confidence sets for constraint sets, optimal values and solutions sets of deterministic decision problems. The results assume concentration-of-measure properties for the objective and/or constraint functions and some knowledge about the true problem, such as values of a growth function and a continuity function. If these values are not available, one can try to estimate them from the approximations for the true functions. We show how such estimates can be derived. Furthermore we investigate con dence sets which are obtained via relaxation of certain inequalities. These confidence sets can be derived without any knowledge about the true deterministic problem and yield, with a prescribed high probability, a superset of the true set. We consider such \superset-approximations" for the constraint sets and the solutions sets and discuss the question how their quality may be judged. Furthermore, lower and upper approximations for the optimal value are derived

Universal confidence sets - sufficient conditions

Universal confidence sets for solutions of optimization problems are sequences of random sets (C_n)_{n \in N} with the property that for each sample size n the set C_n covers the true solution at least with a prescribed probability. Universal confidence sets can be derived making use of uniform concentration-of-measure results for sequences of random functions and knowledge about the limit problem, e.g. a growth condition. We present sufficient conditions for the convergence assumptions and show how estimates for the growth function can be included

Symmetric confidence regions and confidence intervals for normal map formulations of stochastic variational inequalities

Stochastic variational inequalities (SVI) model a large class of equilibrium problems subject to data uncertainty, and are closely related to stochastic optimization problems. The SVI solution is usually estimated by a solution to a sample average approximation (SAA) problem. This paper considers the normal map formulation of an SVI, and proposes a method to build asymptotically exact confidence regions and confidence intervals for the solution of the normal map formulation, based on the asymptotic distribution of SAA solutions. The confidence regions are single ellipsoids with high probability. We also discuss the computation of simultaneous and individual confidence intervals

Randomized Constraints Consensus for Distributed Robust Linear Programming

In this paper we consider a network of processors aiming at cooperatively solving linear programming problems subject to uncertainty. Each node only knows a common cost function and its local uncertain constraint set. We propose a randomized, distributed algorithm working under time-varying, asynchronous and directed communication topology. The algorithm is based on a local computation and communication paradigm. At each communication round, nodes perform two updates: (i) a verification in which they check-in a randomized setup-the robust feasibility (and hence optimality) of the candidate optimal point, and (ii) an optimization step in which they exchange their candidate bases (minimal sets of active constraints) with neighbors and locally solve an optimization problem whose constraint set includes: a sampled constraint violating the candidate optimal point (if it exists), agent's current basis and the collection of neighbor's basis. As main result, we show that if a processor successfully performs the verification step for a sufficient number of communication rounds, it can stop the algorithm since a consensus has been reached. The common solution is-with high confidence-feasible (and hence optimal) for the entire set of uncertainty except a subset having arbitrary small probability measure. We show the effectiveness of the proposed distributed algorithm on a multi-core platform in which the nodes communicate asynchronously.Comment: Accepted for publication in the 20th World Congress of the International Federation of Automatic Control (IFAC

Beyond Chance-Constrained Convex Mixed-Integer Optimization: A Generalized Calafiore-Campi Algorithm and the notion of SS-optimization

The scenario approach developed by Calafiore and Campi to attack chance-constrained convex programs utilizes random sampling on the uncertainty parameter to substitute the original problem with a representative continuous convex optimization with $N$ convex constraints which is a relaxation of the original. Calafiore and Campi provided an explicit estimate on the size $N$ of the sampling relaxation to yield high-likelihood feasible solutions of the chance-constrained problem. They measured the probability of the original constraints to be violated by the random optimal solution from the relaxation of size $N$. This paper has two main contributions. First, we present a generalization of the Calafiore-Campi results to both integer and mixed-integer variables. In fact, we demonstrate that their sampling estimates work naturally for variables restricted to some subset $S$ of $\mathbb R^d$. The key elements are generalizations of Helly's theorem where the convex sets are required to intersect $S \subset \mathbb R^d$. The size of samples in both algorithms will be directly determined by the $S$-Helly numbers. Motivated by the first half of the paper, for any subset $S \subset \mathbb R^d$, we introduce the notion of an $S$-optimization problem, where the variables take on values over $S$. It generalizes continuous, integer, and mixed-integer optimization. We illustrate with examples the expressive power of $S$-optimization to capture sophisticated combinatorial optimization problems with difficult modular constraints. We reinforce the evidence that $S$-optimization is "the right concept" by showing that the well-known randomized sampling algorithm of K. Clarkson for low-dimensional convex optimization problems can be extended to work with variables taking values over $S$.Comment: 16 pages, 0 figures. This paper has been revised and split into two parts. This version is the second part of the original paper. The first part of the original paper is arXiv:1508.02380 (the original article contained 24 pages, 3 figures

A hierarchical Mamdani-type fuzzy modelling approach with new training data selection and multi-objective optimisation mechanisms: A special application for the prediction of mechanical properties of alloy steels

In this paper, a systematic data-driven fuzzy modelling methodology is proposed, which allows to construct Mamdani fuzzy models considering both accuracy (precision) and transparency (interpretability) of fuzzy systems. The new methodology employs a fast hierarchical clustering algorithm to generate an initial fuzzy model efficiently; a training data selection mechanism is developed to identify appropriate and efficient data as learning samples; a high-performance Particle Swarm Optimisation (PSO) based multi-objective optimisation mechanism is developed to further improve the fuzzy model in terms of both the structure and the parameters; and a new tolerance analysis method is proposed to derive the confidence bands relating to the final elicited models. This proposed modelling approach is evaluated using two benchmark problems and is shown to outperform other modelling approaches. Furthermore, the proposed approach is successfully applied to complex high-dimensional modelling problems for manufacturing of alloy steels, using ‘real’ industrial data. These problems concern the prediction of the mechanical properties of alloy steels by correlating them with the heat treatment process conditions as well as the weight percentages of the chemical compositions

Incorporating statistical model error into the calculation of acceptability prices of contingent claims

The determination of acceptability prices of contingent claims requires the choice of a stochastic model for the underlying asset price dynamics. Given this model, optimal bid and ask prices can be found by stochastic optimization. However, the model for the underlying asset price process is typically based on data and found by a statistical estimation procedure. We define a confidence set of possible estimated models by a nonparametric neighborhood of a baseline model. This neighborhood serves as ambiguity set for a multi-stage stochastic optimization problem under model uncertainty. We obtain distributionally robust solutions of the acceptability pricing problem and derive the dual problem formulation. Moreover, we prove a general large deviations result for the nested distance, which allows to relate the bid and ask prices under model ambiguity to the quality of the observed data.Comment: 27 pages, 2 figure