TWINLATIN: Twinning European and Latin-American river basins for research enabling sustainable water resources management. Combined Report D3.1 Hydrological modelling report and D3.2 Evaluation report

Water use has almost tripled over the past 50 years and in some regions the water demand already exceeds supply (Vorosmarty et al., 2000). The world is facing a “global water crisis”; in many countries, current levels of water use are unsustainable, with systems vulnerable to collapse from even small changes in water availability. The need for a scientifically-based assessment of the potential impacts on water resources of future changes, as a basis for society to adapt to such changes, is strong for most parts of the world. Although the focus of such assessments has tended to be climate change, socio-economic changes can have as significant an impact on water availability across the four main use sectors i.e. domestic, agricultural, industrial (including energy) and environmental. Withdrawal and consumption of water is expected to continue to grow substantially over the next 20-50 years (Cosgrove & Rijsberman, 2002), and consequent changes in availability may drastically affect society and economies. One of the most needed improvements in Latin American river basin management is a higher level of detail in hydrological modelling and erosion risk assessment, as a basis for identification and analysis of mitigation actions, as well as for analysis of global change scenarios. Flow measurements are too costly to be realised at more than a few locations, which means that modelled data are required for the rest of the basin. Hence, TWINLATIN Work Package 3 “Hydrological modelling and extremes” was formulated to provide methods and tools to be used by other WPs, in particular WP6 on “Pollution pressure and impact analysis” and WP8 on “Change effects and vulnerability assessment”. With an emphasis on high and low flows and their impacts, WP3 was originally called “Hydrological modelling, flooding, erosion, water scarcity and water abstraction”. However, at the TWINLATIN kick-off meeting it was agreed that some of these issues resided more appropriately in WP6 and WP8, and so WP3 was renamed to focus on hydrological modelling and hydrological extremes. The specific objectives of WP3 as set out in the Description of Work are

Application of Geographical Information Systems to Lahar Hazard Assessment on an Active Volcanic System

Lahars (highly dynamic mixtures of volcanic debris and water) have been responsible for some of the most serious volcanic disasters and have killed tens of thousands of people in recent decades. Despite considerable lahar model development in the sciences, many research tools have proved wholly unsuitable for practical application on an active volcanic system where it is difficult to obtain field measurements. In addition, geographic information systems are tools that offer a great potential to explore, model and map hazards, but are currently under-utilised for lahar hazard assessment. This research pioneered a three-tiered approach to lahar hazard assessment on Montserrat, West Indies. Initially, requirements of potential users of lahar information (scientists and decision-makers) were established through interview and evaluated against attainable modelling outputs (given flow type and data availability). Subsequently, a digital elevation model, fit for modelling lahars, was used by a path of steepest descent algorithm and a semi-empirical debris-flow model in the prediction of lahar routes and inundation areas. Limitations of these established geographical information system (GIS) based models, for predicting the behaviour of (relatively under-studied) dilute lahars, were used to inform key parameters for a novel model, also tightly coupled to a GIS, that simulated flow routes based on change in velocity. Importantly, uncertainty in model predictions was assessed through a stochastic simulation of elevation error. Finally, the practical utility of modelling outputs (visualisations) was assessed through mutual feedback with local scientists. The new model adequately replicated past flow routes and gave preliminary predictions for velocities and travel times, thus providing a short-term lahar hazard assessment. Inundation areas were also mapped using the debris-flow model to assist long-term planning. Ultimately, a GIS can support ‘on the ground’ planning decisions, but efficacy is limited by an active volcanic system which can restrict feedback to and from end-users. *[The appendices for this thesis were submitted as separate files which could not be uploaded to the repository. Please contact the author for more information.]

FLIAT, an object-relational GIS tool for flood impact assessment in Flanders, Belgium

Floods can cause damage to transportation and energy infrastructure, disrupt the delivery of services, and take a toll on public health, sometimes even causing significant loss of life. Although scientists widely stress the compelling need for resilience against extreme events under a changing climate, tools for dealing with expected hazards lag behind. Not only does the socio-economic, ecologic and cultural impact of floods need to be considered, but the potential disruption of a society with regard to priority adaptation guidelines, measures, and policy recommendations need to be considered as well. The main downfall of current impact assessment tools is the raster approach that cannot effectively handle multiple metadata of vital infrastructures, crucial buildings, and vulnerable land use (among other challenges). We have developed a powerful cross-platform flood impact assessment tool (FLIAT) that uses a vector approach linked to a relational database using open source program languages, which can perform parallel computation. As a result, FLIAT can manage multiple detailed datasets, whereby there is no loss of geometrical information. This paper describes the development of FLIAT and the performance of this tool

Spectral filtering as a method of visualising and removing striped artefacts in digital elevation data

Spectral filtering was compared with traditional mean spatial filters to assess their ability to identify and remove striped artefacts in digital elevation data. The techniques were applied to two datasets: a 100 m contour derived digital elevation model (DEM) of southern Norway and a 2 m LiDAR DSM of the Lake District, UK. Both datasets contained diagonal data artefacts that were found to propagate into subsequent terrain analysis. Spectral filtering used fast Fourier transformation (FFT) frequency data to identify these data artefacts in both datasets. These were removed from the data by applying a cut filter, prior to the inverse transform. Spectral filtering showed considerable advantages over mean spatial filters, when both the absolute and spatial distribution of elevation changes made were examined. Elevation changes from the spectral filtering were restricted to frequencies removed by the cut filter, were small in magnitude and consequently avoided any global smoothing. Spectral filtering was found to avoid the smoothing of kernel based data editing, and provided a more informative measure of data artefacts present in the FFT frequency domain. Artefacts were found to be heterogeneous through the surfaces, a result of their strong correlations with spatially autocorrelated variables: landcover and landsurface geometry. Spectral filtering performed better on the 100 m DEM, where signal and artefact were clearly distinguishable in the frequency data. Spectrally filtered digital elevation datasets were found to provide a superior and more precise representation of the landsurface and be a more appropriate dataset for any subsequent geomorphological applications

Surface networks

© Copyright CASA, UCL. The desire to understand and exploit the structure of continuous surfaces is common to researchers in a range of disciplines. Few examples of the varied surfaces forming an integral part of modern subjects include terrain, population density, surface atmospheric pressure, physico-chemical surfaces, computer graphics, and metrological surfaces. The focus of the work here is a group of data structures called Surface Networks, which abstract 2-dimensional surfaces by storing only the most important (also called fundamental, critical or surface-specific) points and lines in the surfaces. Surface networks are intelligent and “natural ” data structures because they store a surface as a framework of “surface ” elements unlike the DEM or TIN data structures. This report presents an overview of the previous works and the ideas being developed by the authors of this report. The research on surface networks has fou

SAFECoast: Comparison between different flood risk methodologies. Action 3B report - SAFECOAST Interreg IIIb North Sea Project

The Interreg IIIB project SAFECoast considers the question “How to manage our North Sea coasts in 2050?’ and focuses on the consequences of climate change and spatial developments with respect to safety from coastal flooding. Therefore, a team of coastal managers from the Netherlands, Germany, Belgium, Denmark and the UK are continuing their cooperation in SAFECoast which aims to build on each other’s experiences in, and understanding of coastal risk management. Flanders Hydraulics Research (FHR, located in Borgerhout, Belgium) has proposed a flood risk methodology in the past which makes it possible to compare different areas and different situations with a view to damage and risk calculations. In the past years, the methodology has been extended and improved, and meanwhile it is used in several studies in Flanders. This report is the contribution of Flanders Hydraulics Research to the SAFECoast project (action 3b). The goal is to compare basic parameters of the existing coastal risk methodologies and make an inventory of the strong and weak points of the different approaches. It is neither possible nor desirable to make a ranking of them. Because of data availability and case specific parameters and constraints, each methodology generally fits the best for the area they are made for. However we want to learn from them and incorporate good ideas to improve the existing methodologies. To improve coastal risk methodology means to make its results less uncertain, or more complete. In this study all the different sources of uncertainty are analysed and compared so it becomes possible to identify the weak links in the calculation chain

Reanalysis of multi-temporal aerial images of Storglaciären, Sweden (1959–99) – Part 1: Determination of length, area, and volume changes

Storglaciären, located in the Kebnekaise massif in northern Sweden, has a long history of glaciological research. Early photo documentations date back to the late 19th century. Measurements of front position variations and distributed mass balance have been carried out since 1910 and 1945/46, respectively. In addition to these in-situ measurements, aerial photographs have been taken at decadal intervals since the beginning of the mass balance monitoring program and were used to produce topographic glacier maps. Inaccuracies in the maps were a challenge to early attempts to derive glacier volume changes and resulted in major differences when compared to the direct glaciological mass balances. In this study, we reanalyzed dia-positives of the original aerial photographs of 1959, -69, -80, -90 and -99 based on consistent photogrammetric processing. From the resulting digital elevation models and orthophotos, changes in length, area, and volume of Storglaciären were computed between the survey years, including an assessment of related errors. Between 1959 and 1999, Storglaciären lost an ice volume of 19×106 m3, which corresponds to a cumulative ice thickness loss of 5.69 m and a mean annual loss of 0.14 m. This ice loss resulted largely from a strong volume loss during the period 1959–80 and was partly compensated during the period 1980–99. As a consequence, the glacier shows a strong retreat in the 1960s, a slowing in the 1970s, and pseudo-stationary conditions in the 1980s and 1990s