Shinren : Non-monotonic trust management for distributed systems

The open and dynamic nature of modern distributed systems and pervasive environments presents significant challenges to security management. One solution may be trust management which utilises the notion of trust in order to specify and interpret security policies and make decisions on security-related actions. Most trust management systems assume monotonicity where additional information can only result in the increasing of trust. The monotonic assumption oversimplifies the real world by not considering negative information, thus it cannot handle many real world scenarios. In this paper we present Shinren, a novel non-monotonic trust management system based on bilattice theory and the anyworld assumption. Shinren takes into account negative information and supports reasoning with incomplete information, uncertainty and inconsistency. Information from multiple sources such as credentials, recommendations, reputation and local knowledge can be used and combined in order to establish trust. Shinren also supports prioritisation which is important in decision making and resolving modality conflicts that are caused by non-monotonicity

Propagation of uncertainty in a knowledge-based system to assess energy management strategies for new technologies

The goal of this project is to investigate the propagation of uncertainty in a knowledge-based system that assesses energy management strategies for new gas and electric technologies that can help reduce energy consumption and demand. The new technologies that have been investigated include lighting, electric heat pumps, motors, refrigerators, microwave clothes dryers, freeze concentration, electric vehicles, gas furnaces, gas heat pumps, engine-driven chillers, absorption chillers, and natural gas vehicles distributed throughout the residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sectors;The description of a complex assessment system may be simplified by allowing some degree of uncertainty. A number of uncertainty-representing mechanisms, such as probability theory, certainty factors, Dempster-Shafer theory, fuzzy logic, rough sets, non-numerical methods, and belief networks, were reviewed and compared. The proper application of uncertainty provides an effective and efficient way to represent knowledge;A knowledge-based system has been developed to assess the impacts of rebate programs on customer adoption of new technologies and, hence, the reductions in energy and demand. Three modes have been programmed: (1) one in which uncertainty is not considered, (2) another where fuzzy logic with linguistic variables is used to represent uncertainty, and (3) one in which uncertainty is represented using Dempster-Shafer theory with basic probability assignments. A correlation for rebate, expected (energy) savings, and customer adoption is employed in the knowledge base. Predictions for annual adoption of a new technology are made for specified useful life, rebate, and expected savings; or a suggested rebate can be determined for specified useful life, expected savings, and annual adoption. With input for energy use and demand for each technology, the impacts of rebate programs on energy use and power demand can be evaluated;This report and the knowledge-based system should help utilities determine these new technologies that are most promising and these strategies that should be emphasized in their energy management programs

A Bayesian Approach to Sensor Placement and System Health Monitoring

System health monitoring and sensor placement are areas of great technical and scientific interest. Prognostics and health management of a complex system require multiple sensors to extract required information from the sensed environment, because no single sensor can obtain all the required information reliably at all times. The increasing costs of aging systems and infrastructures have become a major concern, and system health monitoring techniques can ensure increased safety and reliability of these systems. Similar concerns also exist for newly designed systems. The main objectives of this research were: (1) to find an effective way for optimal functional sensor placement under uncertainty, and (2) to develop a system health monitoring approach with both prognostic and diagnostic capabilities with limited and uncertain information sensing and monitoring points. This dissertation provides a functional/information --based sensor placement methodology for monitoring the health (state of reliability) of a system and utilizes it in a new system health monitoring approach. The developed sensor placement method is based on Bayesian techniques and is capable of functional sensor placement under uncertainty. It takes into account the uncertainty inherent in characteristics of sensors as well. It uses Bayesian networks for modeling and reasoning the uncertainties as well as for updating the state of knowledge for unknowns of interest and utilizes information metrics for sensor placement based on the amount of information each possible sensor placement scenario provides. A new system health monitoring methodology is also developed which is: (1) capable of assessing current state of a system's health and can predict the remaining life of the system (prognosis), and (2) through appropriate data processing and interpretation can point to elements of the system that have or are likely to cause system failure or degradation (diagnosis). It can also be set up as a dynamic monitoring system such that through consecutive time steps, the system sensors perform observations and send data to the Bayesian network for continuous health assessment. The proposed methodology is designed to answer important questions such as how to infer the health of a system based on limited number of monitoring points at certain subsystems (upward propagation); how to infer the health of a subsystem based on knowledge of the health of the main system (downward propagation); and how to infer the health of a subsystem based on knowledge of the health of other subsystems (distributed propagation)

A feature-based comparison of the centralised versus market-based decision making under lens of environment uncertainty: Case of the mobile task allocation problem

This thesis was submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy and awarded by Brunel University.Decision making problems are amongst the most common challenges facing managers at different management levels in the organisation: strategic, tactical, and operational. However, prior reaching decisions at the operational level of the management hierarchy, operations management departments frequently have to deal with the optimisation process to evaluate the available decision alternatives. Industries with complex supply chain structures and service organisations that have to optimise the utilisation of their resources are examples. Conventionally, operational decisions used to be taken centrally by a decision making authority located at the top of a hierarchically-structured organisation. In order to take decisions, information related to the managed system and the affecting externalities (e.g. demand) should be globally available to the decision maker. The obtained information is then processed to reach the optimal decision. This approach usually makes extensive use of information systems (IS) containing myriad of optimisation algorithms and meta-heuristics to process the high amount and complex nature of data. The decisions reached are then broadcasted to the passive actuators of the system to put them in execution. On the other hand, recent advancements in information and communication technologies (ICT) made it possible to distribute the decision making rights and proved its applicability in several sectors. The market-based approach is as such a distributed decision making mechanism where passive actuators are delegated the rights of taking individual decisions matching their self-interests. The communication among the market agents is done through market transactions regulated by auctions. The system’s global optimisation, therefore, raise from the aggregated self-oriented market agents. As opposed to the centralised approach, the main characteristics of the market-based approach are the market mechanism and local knowledge of the agents. The existence of both approaches attracted several studies to compare them in different contexts. Recently, some comparisons compared the centralised versus market-based approaches in the context of transportation applications from an algorithm perspective. Transportation applications and routing problems are assumed to be good candidates for this comparison given the distributed nature of the system and due to the presence of several sources of uncertainty. Uncertainty exceptions make decisions highly vulnerable and necessitating frequent corrective interventions to keep an efficient level of service. Motivated by the previous comparison studies, this research aims at further investigating the features of both approaches and to contrast them in the context of a distributed task allocation problem in light of environmental uncertainty. Similar applications are often faced by service industries with mobile workforce. Contrary to the previous comparison studies that sought to compare those approaches at the mechanism level, this research attempts to identify the effect of the most significant characteristics of each approach to face environmental uncertainty, which is reflected in this research by the arrival of dynamic tasks and the occurrence of stochasticity delays. To achieve the aim of this research, a target optimisation problem from the VRP family is proposed and solved with both approaches. Given that this research does not target proposing new algorithms, two basic solution mechanisms are adopted to compare the centralised and the market-based approach. The produced solutions are executed on a dedicated multi-agent simulation system. During execution dynamism and stochasticity are introduced. The research findings suggest that a market-based approach is attractive to implement in highly uncertain environments when the degree of local knowledge and workers’ experience is high and when the system tends to be complex with large dimensions. It is also suggested that a centralised approach fits more in situations where uncertainty is lower and the decision maker is able to make timely decision updates, which is in turn regulated by the size of the system at hand

Assessment of the operational flexibility of virtual power plants to facilitate the integration of distributed energy resources and decision-making under uncertainty

Distributed energy resources (DERs) are elements that actively participate in the supply of renewable energy and contribute to the decarbonization of the power system. However, they lack two factors necessary to take advantage of their operational flexibility: observability and controllability. In this sense, Virtual Power Plants (VPPs) are a feasible alternative to provide the necessary requirements for the optimal management of a set of distributed units. Therefore, knowledge of the technical and energy characteristics of each unit that makes up the VPP is a necessary condition for the effective integration of DERs into the power system. This paper proposes a methodology to graphically represent, quantify and exploit the aggregate operational flexibility of a set of units. The proposed methodology is based on five metrics related to active and reactive power, which serve as a tool to facilitate the VPP Operator's decision-making under uncertainty. Consequently, achieving the coordinated operation of several distributed units makes it possible to achieve common objectives. For instance, frequency and voltage regulation, compliance with a planned power curve, or dealing with the variability of renewable energies. The proposal is applied to a theoretical case study and through real operational tests between a hydroelectric unit and a photovoltaic plant. Finally, it is shown that the results obtained are a useful tool in real-time.The authors acknowledge the support from GISEL research group IT1191-19, as well as from the University of the Basque Country UPV/EHU (research group funding 181/18)

An integrated system dynamics - Cellular automata model for distributed water-infrastructure planning

PublishedJournal ArticleThis is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from IWA Publishing via the DOI in this record.© IWA Publishing 2016.Modern distributed water-Aware technologies (including, for example, greywater recycling and rainwater harvesting) enable water reuse at the scale of household or neighbourhood. Nevertheless, even though these technologies are, in some cases, economically advantageous, they have a significant handicap compared to the centralized urban water management options: It is not easy to estimate a priori the extent and the rate of the technology spread. This disadvantage is amplified in the case of additional uncertainty due to expansion of an urban area. This overall incertitude is one of the basic reasons the stakeholders involved in urban water are sceptical about the distributed technologies, even in the cases where these appear to have lower cost. In this study, we suggest a methodology that attempts to cope with this uncertainty by coupling a cellular automata (CA) and a system dynamics (SD) model. The CA model is used to create scenarios of urban expansion including the suitability of installing water-Aware technologies for each new urban area. Then, the SD model is used to estimate the adoption rate of the technologies. Various scenarios based on different economic conditions and water prices are assessed. The suggested methodology is applied to an urban area in Attica, Greece.This research has been co-financed by the European Union (European Social Fund– ESF) and Greek national funds through the Operational Program "Education and Lifelong Learning" of the National Strategic Reference Framework (NSRF) - Research Funding Program: THALES. Investing in knowledge society through the European Social Fund. Hydropolis: Urban development and water infrastructure - Towards innovative decentralized urban water management

Centralised Versus Market-Based Control Under Environment Uncertainty: Case of the Mobile Task Allocation Problem (MTAP)

This paper aims at comparing the centralised versus the market-based approach. This is done in the context of the mobile task allocation problem (MTAP) from the perspective of environmental uncertainty. MTAP is defined as an optimization problem for planning the assignment of service tasks to mobile workers. Environmental uncertainty is introduced through the injection of stochastic tasks and dynamic travel delays. A multi-agent simulator is employed to experiment the behaviour of each approach in reaction to different uncertainty levels. Preliminary results suggest a tentative conceptual model to evaluate the suitability of each approach to address MTAP in function of uncertainty. It is suggested that uncertainty’s effect on achieved performance is moderated by the timeliness of decision making, workers’ degree of local knowledge, and problem’s complexity and size

Addressing Uncertainty in TMDLS: Short Course at Arkansas Water Resources Center 2001 Annual Conference

Management of a critical natural resource like water requires information on the status of that resource. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) reported in the 1998 National Water Quality Inventory that more than 291,000 miles of assessed rivers and streams and 5 million acres of lakes do not meet State water quality standards. This inventory represents a compilation of State assessments of 840,000 miles of rivers and 17.4 million acres of lakes; a 22 percent increase in river miles and 4 percent increase in lake acres over their 1996 reports. Siltation, bacteria, nutrients and metals were the leading pollutants of impaired waters, according to EPA. The sources of these pollutants were presumed to be runoff from agricultural lands and urban areas. EPA suggests that the majority of Americans-over 218 million-live within ten miles of a polluted waterbody. This seems to contradict the recent proclamations of the success of the Clean Water Act, the Nation\u27s water pollution control law. EPA also claims that, while water quality is still threatened in the US, the amount of water safe for fishing and swimming has doubled since 1972, and that the number of people served by sewage treatment plants has more than doubled

Centralized versus market-based approaches to mobile task allocation problem: State-of-the-art

Centralized approach has been adopted for finding solutions to resource allocation problems (RAPs) in many real-life applications. On the other hand, market-based approach has been proposed as an alternative to solve the problem due to recent advancement in ICT technologies. In spite of the existence of some efforts to review the pros and cons of each approach in RAPs, the studies cannot be directly applied to specific problem domains like mobile task allocation problem which is characterised with high level of uncertainty on the availability of resources (workers). This paper aims to review existing studies on task allocation problems(TAPs) focusing on those two approaches and their comparison and identify major issues that need to be resolved for comparing the two approaches in mobile task allocation problems. Mobile Task Allocation Problem (MTAP) is defined and its problematic structures are explained in relation with task allocation to mobile workers. Solutions produced by each approach to some applications and variations of MTAP are also discussed and compared. Finally, some future research directions are identified in order to compare both approaches in function of uncertainty emerging from the mobile nature of the MTAP

Models of everywhere revisited: a technological perspective

The concept ‘models of everywhere’ was first introduced in the mid 2000s as a means of reasoning about the environmental science of a place, changing the nature of the underlying modelling process, from one in which general model structures are used to one in which modelling becomes a learning process about specific places, in particular capturing the idiosyncrasies of that place. At one level, this is a straightforward concept, but at another it is a rich multi-dimensional conceptual framework involving the following key dimensions: models of everywhere, models of everything and models at all times, being constantly re-evaluated against the most current evidence. This is a compelling approach with the potential to deal with epistemic uncertainties and nonlinearities. However, the approach has, as yet, not been fully utilised or explored. This paper examines the concept of models of everywhere in the light of recent advances in technology. The paper argues that, when first proposed, technology was a limiting factor but now, with advances in areas such as Internet of Things, cloud computing and data analytics, many of the barriers have been alleviated. Consequently, it is timely to look again at the concept of models of everywhere in practical conditions as part of a trans-disciplinary effort to tackle the remaining research questions. The paper concludes by identifying the key elements of a research agenda that should underpin such experimentation and deployment