Using matrix factorisation for the prediction of electrical quantities

The prediction task is attracting more and more attention among the power system community. Accurate predictions of electrical quantities up to a few hours ahead (e.g. renewable production, electrical load etc.) are for instance crucial for distribution system operators to operate their network in the presence of a high share of renewables, or for energy producers to maximise their profits by optimising their portfolio management. In the literature, statistical approaches are usually proposed to predict electrical quantities. In the present study, the authors present a novel method based on matrix factorisation. The authors' approach is inspired by the literature on data mining and knowledge discovery and the methodologies involved in recommender systems. The idea is to transpose the problem of predicting ratings in a recommender system to a problem of forecasting electrical quantities in a power system. Preliminary results on a real wind speed dataset tend to show that the matrix factorisation model provides similar results than auto regressive integrated models in terms of accuracy (MAE and RMSE). The authors' approach is nevertheless highly scalable and can deal with noisy data (e.g. missing data)

Least squares support vector machine with self-organizing multiple kernel learning and sparsity

© 2018 In recent years, least squares support vector machines (LSSVMs) with various kernel functions have been widely used in the field of machine learning. However, the selection of kernel functions is often ignored in practice. In this paper, an improved LSSVM method based on self-organizing multiple kernel learning is proposed for black-box problems. To strengthen the generalization ability of the LSSVM, some appropriate kernel functions are selected and the corresponding model parameters are optimized using a differential evolution algorithm based on an improved mutation strategy. Due to the large computation cost, a sparse selection strategy is developed to extract useful data and remove redundant data without loss of accuracy. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method, some benchmark problems from the UCI machine learning repository are tested. The results show that the proposed method performs better than other state-of-the-art methods. In addition, to verify the practicability of the proposed method, it is applied to a real-world converter steelmaking process. The results illustrate that the proposed model can precisely predict the molten steel quality and satisfy the actual production demand

Big Data Analytics in Smart Grids for Renewable Energy Networks: Systematic Review of Information and Communication Technology Tools

El desarrollo industrial y económico de los países industrializados, a partir del siglo XIX, ha ido de la mano del desarrollo de la electricidad, del motor de combustión interna, de los ordenadores, de Internet, de la utilización de datos y del uso intensivo del conocimiento centrado en la ciencia y la tecnología. La mayoría de las fuentes de energía convencionales han demostrado ser finitas y agotables. A su vez, las diferentes actividades de producción de bienes y servicios que utilizan combustibles fósiles y energía convencional, han aumentado significativamente la contaminación del medio ambiente, y con ello, han contribuido al calentamiento global. El objetivo de este trabajo fue realizar una aproximación teórica a las tecnologías de análisis de datos e inteligencia de negocio aplicadas a las redes de sistemas eléctricos inteligentes con energías renovables. Para este trabajo se realizó una revisión bibliométrica y bibliográfica sobre Big Data Analytics, herramientas TIC de la industria 4.0 y Business intelligence en diferentes bases de datos disponibles en el dominio público. Los resultados del análisis indican la importancia del uso de la analítica de datos y la inteligencia de negocio en la gestión de las empresas energéticas. El trabajo concluye señalando cómo se está aplicando la inteligencia de negocio y la analítica de datos en ejemplos concretos de empresas energéticas y su creciente importancia en la toma de decisiones estratégicas y operativasThe industrial and economic development of the industrialized countries, from the nineteenth century, has gone hand in hand with the development of electricity, the internal combustion engine, computers, the Internet, data use and the intensive use of knowledge focused on science and the technology. Most conventional energy sources have proven to be finite and exhaustible. In turn, the different production activities of goods and services using fossil fuels and conventional energy, have significantly increased the pollution of the environment, and with it, contributed to global warming. The objective of this work was to carry out a theoretical approach to data analytics and business intelligence technologies applied to smart electrical-system networks with renewable energies. For this paper, a bibliometric and bibliographic review about Big Data Analytics, ICT tools of industry 4.0 and Business intelligence was carried out in different databases available in the public domain. The results of the analysis indicate the importance of the use of data analytics and business intelligence in the management of energy companies. The paper concludes by pointing out how business intelligence and data analytics are being applied in specific examples of energy companies and their growing importance in strategic and operational decision makinghttps://scienti.minciencias.gov.co/cvlac/visualizador/generarCurriculoCv.do?cod_rh=0000192503https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=9HLAZYUAAAAJ&hl=eshttps://scienti.minciencias.gov.co/gruplac/jsp/visualiza/visualizagr.jsp?nro=00000000005961https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1166-198

Big data analytics in smart grids: a review

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Artificial intelligence in wind speed forecasting: a review

Wind energy production has had accelerated growth in recent years, reaching an annual increase of 17% in 2021. Wind speed plays a crucial role in the stability required for power grid operation. However, wind intermittency makes accurate forecasting a complicated process. Implementing new technologies has allowed the development of hybrid models and techniques, improving wind speed forecasting accuracy. Additionally, statistical and artificial intelligence methods, especially artificial neural networks, have been applied to enhance the results. However, there is a concern about identifying the main factors influencing the forecasting process and providing a basis for estimation with artificial neural network models. This paper reviews and classifies the forecasting models used in recent years according to the input model type, the pre-processing and post-processing technique, the artificial neural network model, the prediction horizon, the steps ahead number, and the evaluation metric. The research results indicate that artificial neural network (ANN)-based models can provide accurate wind forecasting and essential information about the specific location of potential wind use for a power plant by understanding the future wind speed values

Two Machine Learning Approaches for Short-Term Wind Speed Time-Series Prediction

The increasing liberalization of European electricity markets, the growing proportion of intermittent renewable energy being fed into the energy grids, and also new challenges in the patterns of energy consumption (such as electric mobility) require flexible and intelligent power grids capable of providing efficient, reliable, economical, and sustainable energy production and distribution. From the supplier side, particularly, the integration of renewable energy sources (e.g., wind and solar) into the grid imposes an engineering and economic challenge because of the limited ability to control and dispatch these energy sources due to their intermittent characteristics. Time-series prediction of wind speed for wind power production is a particularly important and challenging task, wherein prediction intervals (PIs) are preferable results of the prediction, rather than point estimates, because they provide information on the confidence in the prediction. In this paper, two different machine learning approaches to assess PIs of time-series predictions are considered and compared: 1) multilayer perceptron neural networks trained with a multiobjective genetic algorithm and 2) extreme learning machines combined with the nearest neighbors approach. The proposed approaches are applied for short-term wind speed prediction from a real data set of hourly wind speed measurements for the region of Regina in Saskatchewan, Canada. Both approaches demonstrate good prediction precision and provide complementary advantages with respect to different evaluation criteria

A Survey of Artificial Neural Network in Wind Energy Systems

Wind energy has become one of the most important forms of renewable energy. Wind energy conversion systems are more sophisticated and new approaches are required based on advance analytics. This paper presents an exhaustive review of artificial neural networks used in wind energy systems, identifying the methods most employed for different applications and demonstrating that Artificial Neural Networks can be an alternative to conventional methods in many cases. More than 85% of the 190 references employed in this paper have been published in the last 5 years. The methods are classified and analysed into four groups according to the application: forecasting and predictions; design optimization; fault detection and diagnosis; and optimal control. A statistical analysis of the current state and future trends in this field is carried out. An analysis of each application group about the strengths and weaknesses of each ANN structure is carried out. A quantitative analysis of the main references is carried out showing new statistical results of the current state and future trends of the topic. The paper describes the main challenges and technological gaps concerning the application of ANN to wind turbines, according to the literature review. An overall table is provided to summarize the most important references according to the application groups and case studies

Tendencias recientes en el pronóstico de velocidad de viento para generación eólica

Este documento tiene como objetivo presentar un marco unificado para discutir, resumir y organizar los principales avances en pronóstico de velocidad de viento para generación eólica utilizando un método auditable, ordenado y reproducible. Los principales hallazgos fueron: La mayor parte de los trabajos provienen de China y Estados Unidos, las series de tiempo usadas poseen una longitud de menos de un año, comúnmente el pronóstico es realizado en un rango de 1 hora a 48 horas hacia adelante. Muchos estudios usan solamente modelos autoregresivos (Lineares y no lineares) o en muchos casos una sola variable explicatoria. Usualmente la variable pronosticada es la velocidad de viento u la potencia generada. La revisión muestra una tendencia en la que los autores están experimentando con modelos híbridos para obtener las ventajas de cada método utilizado, también, una tendencia a utilizar métodos clásicos como redes neuronales, máquinas de vectores de soporte y modelos autorregresivosAbstract: This document aims to provide a unified frame for discussing, summarizing and organizing the main advances in wind power forecasting using an auditable, orderly and reproducible method. Our main findings are the following: most of works forecasting time series from China and United States; time series data usually cover information with a length lower than a year of data. Commonly, the forecast is done for 1 to 48 hours ahead. Many studies using only autorregresive models (linear or no linear) or, in many cases, one explanatory variable. Usually, the variables forecasted are speed and power. The review shows a tendency in which the authors are experimenting with hybrid models to obtain the advantages of each method used, also, a trend to use classical methods such as neural networks, Support Vector Machines and autoregressive models.Maestrí

Artificial Intelligence for Resilience in Smart Grid Operations

Today, the electric power grid is transforming into a highly interconnected network of advanced technologies, equipment, and controls to enable a smarter grid. The growing complexity of smart grid requires resilient operation and control. Power system resilience is defined as the ability to harden the system against and quickly recover from high-impact, low-frequency events. The introduction of two-way flows of information and electricity in the smart grid raises concerns of cyber-physical attacks. Proliferated penetration of renewable energy sources such as solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind power introduce challenges due to the high variability and uncertainty in generation. Unintentional disruptions and power system component outages have become a threat to real-time power system operations. Recent extreme weather events and natural disasters such as hurricanes, storms, and wildfires demonstrate the importance of resilience in the power system. It is essential to find solutions to overcome these challenges in maintaining resilience in smart grid. In this dissertation, artificial intelligence (AI) based approaches have been developed to enhance resilience in smart grid. Methods for optimal automatic generation control (AGC) have been developed for multi-area multi-machine power systems. Reliable AI models have been developed for predicting solar irradiance, PV power generation, and power system frequencies. The proposed short-horizon AI prediction models ranging from few seconds to a minute plus, outperform the state-of-art persistence models. The AI prediction models have been applied to provide situational intelligence for power system operations. An enhanced tie-line bias control in a multi-area power system for variable and uncertain environments has been developed with predicted PV power and bus frequencies. A distributed and parallel security-constrained optimal power flow (SCOPF) algorithm has been developed to overcome the challenges in solving SCOPF problem for large power networks. The methods have been developed and tested on an experimental laboratory platform consisting of real-time digital simulators, hardware/software phasor measurement units, and a real-time weather station