Towards a Real-Time Data Driven Wildland Fire Model

A wildland fire model based on semi-empirical relations for the spread rate of a surface fire and post-frontal heat release is coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting atmospheric model (WRF). The propagation of the fire front is implemented by a level set method. Data is assimilated by a morphing ensemble Kalman filter, which provides amplitude as well as position corrections. Thermal images of a fire will provide the observations and will be compared to a synthetic image from the model state.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figure

Short-term fire front spread prediction using inverse modelling and airborne infrared images

A wildfire forecasting tool capable of estimating the fire perimeter position sufficiently in advance of the actual fire arrival will assist firefighting operations and optimise available resources. However, owing to limited knowledge of fire event characteristics (e.g. fuel distribution and characteristics, weather variability) and the short time available to deliver a forecast, most of the current models only provide a rough approximation of the forthcoming fire positions and dynamics. The problem can be tackled by coupling data assimilation and inverse modelling techniques. We present an inverse modelling-based algorithm that uses infrared airborne images to forecast short-term wildfire dynamics with a positive lead time. The algorithm is applied to two real-scale mallee-heath shrubland fire experiments, of 9 and 25 ha, successfully forecasting the fire perimeter shape and position in the short term. Forecast dependency on the assimilation windows is explored to prepare the system to meet real scenario constraints. It is envisaged the system will be applied at larger time and space scales.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Flame filtering and perimeter localization of wildfires using aerial thermal imagery

Airborne thermal infrared (TIR) imaging systems are being increasingly used for wild fire tactical monitoring since they show important advantages over spaceborne platforms and visible sensors while becoming much more affordable and much lighter than multispectral cameras. However, the analysis of aerial TIR images entails a number of difficulties which have thus far prevented monitoring tasks from being totally automated. One of these issues that needs to be addressed is the appearance of flame projections during the geo-correction of off-nadir images. Filtering these flames is essential in order to accurately estimate the geographical location of the fuel burning interface. Therefore, we present a methodology which allows the automatic localisation of the active fire contour free of flame projections. The actively burning area is detected in TIR georeferenced images through a combination of intensity thresholding techniques, morphological processing and active contours. Subsequently, flame projections are filtered out by the temporal frequency analysis of the appropriate contour descriptors. The proposed algorithm was tested on footages acquired during three large-scale field experimental burns. Results suggest this methodology may be suitable to automatise the acquisition of quantitative data about the fire evolution. As future work, a revision of the low-pass filter implemented for the temporal analysis (currently a median filter) was recommended. The availability of up-to-date information about the fire state would improve situational awareness during an emergency response and may be used to calibrate data-driven simulators capable of emitting short-term accurate forecasts of the subsequent fire evolution.Postprint (author's final draft

Assimilation of Perimeter Data and Coupling with Fuel Moisture in a Wildland Fire - Atmosphere DDDAS

We present a methodology to change the state of the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with the fire spread code SFIRE, based on Rothermel's formula and the level set method, and with a fuel moisture model. The fire perimeter in the model changes in response to data while the model is running. However, the atmosphere state takes time to develop in response to the forcing by the heat flux from the fire. Therefore, an artificial fire history is created from an earlier fire perimeter to the new perimeter, and replayed with the proper heat fluxes to allow the atmosphere state to adjust. The method is an extension of an earlier method to start the coupled fire model from a developed fire perimeter rather than an ignition point. The level set method is also used to identify parameters of the simulation, such as the spread rate and the fuel moisture. The coupled model is available from openwfm.org, and it extends the WRF-Fire code in WRF release.Comment: ICCS 2012, 10 pages; corrected some DOI typesetting in the reference

A wildland fire model with data assimilation

A wildfire model is formulated based on balance equations for energy and fuel, where the fuel loss due to combustion corresponds to the fuel reaction rate. The resulting coupled partial differential equations have coefficients that can be approximated from prior measurements of wildfires. An ensemble Kalman filter technique with regularization is then used to assimilate temperatures measured at selected points into running wildfire simulations. The assimilation technique is able to modify the simulations to track the measurements correctly even if the simulations were started with an erroneous ignition location that is quite far away from the correct one.Comment: 35 pages, 12 figures; minor revision January 2008. Original version available from http://www-math.cudenver.edu/ccm/report

Evaluation of WRF-Sfire Performance with Field Observations from the FireFlux experiment

This study uses in-situ measurements collected during the FireFlux field experiment to evaluate and improve the performance of coupled atmosphere-fire model WRF-Sfire. The simulation by WRF-Sfire of the experimental burn shows that WRF-Sfire is capable of providing realistic head fire rate-of-spread and the vertical temperature structure of the fire plume, and, up to 10 m above ground level, fire-induced surface flow and vertical velocities within the plume. The model captured the changes in wind speed and direction before, during, and after fire front passage, along with arrival times of wind speed, temperature, and updraft maximae, at the two instrumented flux towers used in FireFlux. The model overestimated vertical velocities and underestimated horizontal wind speeds measured at tower heights above the 10 m, and it is hypothesized that the limited model resolution over estimated the fire front depth, leading to too high a heat release and, subsequently, too strong an updraft. However, on the whole, WRF-Sfire fire plume behavior is consistent with the interpretation of FireFlux observations. The study suggests optimal experimental pre-planning, design, and execution of future field campaigns that are needed for further coupled atmosphere-fire model development and evaluation

Unmanned Aerial Systems for Wildland and Forest Fires

Wildfires represent an important natural risk causing economic losses, human death and important environmental damage. In recent years, we witness an increase in fire intensity and frequency. Research has been conducted towards the development of dedicated solutions for wildland and forest fire assistance and fighting. Systems were proposed for the remote detection and tracking of fires. These systems have shown improvements in the area of efficient data collection and fire characterization within small scale environments. However, wildfires cover large areas making some of the proposed ground-based systems unsuitable for optimal coverage. To tackle this limitation, Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) were proposed. UAS have proven to be useful due to their maneuverability, allowing for the implementation of remote sensing, allocation strategies and task planning. They can provide a low-cost alternative for the prevention, detection and real-time support of firefighting. In this paper we review previous work related to the use of UAS in wildfires. Onboard sensor instruments, fire perception algorithms and coordination strategies are considered. In addition, we present some of the recent frameworks proposing the use of both aerial vehicles and Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UV) for a more efficient wildland firefighting strategy at a larger scale.Comment: A recent published version of this paper is available at: https://doi.org/10.3390/drones501001