Evolutionary-statistical system for uncertainty reduction problems in wildfires

Fire modelling is used by engineers and scientists to understand and to predict possible fire behaviour. Empirical, semi-empirical, and physical models have been developed to predict wildfire behaviour. Any of these can be used to develop simulators and tools for preventing and fighting wildfires. However, in many cases the models present a series of limitations related to the need for a large number of input parameters. Moreover, such parameters often have some degree of uncertainty due to the impossibility of getting all of them in real time. Consequently, these values have to be estimated from indirect measurements, which negatively impacts on the output of the model. In this paper we show a method which takes advantage of the computational power provided by High Performance Computing to improve the quality of the output of the model. This method combines Statistical Analysis with Parallel Evolutionary Algorithms. Besides, we compare this method with a previous version which did not use evolutionary algorithms.Eje: Workshop Procesamiento distribuido y paralelo (WPDP)Red de Universidades con Carreras en Informática (RedUNCI

A review of machine learning applications in wildfire science and management

Artificial intelligence has been applied in wildfire science and management since the 1990s, with early applications including neural networks and expert systems. Since then the field has rapidly progressed congruently with the wide adoption of machine learning (ML) in the environmental sciences. Here, we present a scoping review of ML in wildfire science and management. Our objective is to improve awareness of ML among wildfire scientists and managers, as well as illustrate the challenging range of problems in wildfire science available to data scientists. We first present an overview of popular ML approaches used in wildfire science to date, and then review their use in wildfire science within six problem domains: 1) fuels characterization, fire detection, and mapping; 2) fire weather and climate change; 3) fire occurrence, susceptibility, and risk; 4) fire behavior prediction; 5) fire effects; and 6) fire management. We also discuss the advantages and limitations of various ML approaches and identify opportunities for future advances in wildfire science and management within a data science context. We identified 298 relevant publications, where the most frequently used ML methods included random forests, MaxEnt, artificial neural networks, decision trees, support vector machines, and genetic algorithms. There exists opportunities to apply more current ML methods (e.g., deep learning and agent based learning) in wildfire science. However, despite the ability of ML models to learn on their own, expertise in wildfire science is necessary to ensure realistic modelling of fire processes across multiple scales, while the complexity of some ML methods requires sophisticated knowledge for their application. Finally, we stress that the wildfire research and management community plays an active role in providing relevant, high quality data for use by practitioners of ML methods.Comment: 83 pages, 4 figures, 3 table

Incorporating anthropogenic influences into fire probability models : effects of human activity and climate change on fire activity in California

The costly interactions between humans and wildfires throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the relationships between them, especially in the face of a changing climate and expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous uncertainty about the location and number of future fires, with previously published estimates of increases ranging from nine to fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess the role of climate and anthropogenic influences on the state's fire regimes from 1975 to 2050. We develop an empirical model that integrates estimates of biophysical indicators relevant to plant communities and anthropogenic influences at each forecast time step. Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to fifty percent of explanatory power in the model. We also find that the total area burned is likely to increase, with burned area expected to increase by 2.2 and 5.0 percent by 2050 under climatic bookends (PCM and GFDL climate models, respectively). Our two climate models show considerable agreement, but due to potential shifts in rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid inland deserts and coastal areas of the south. Given the strength of human-related variables in some regions, however, it is clear that comprehensive projections of future fire activity should include both anthropogenic and biophysical influences. Previous findings of substantially increased numbers of fires and burned area for California may be tied to omitted variable bias from the exclusion of human influences. The omission of anthropogenic variables in our model would overstate the importance of climatic ones by at least 24%. As such, the failure to include anthropogenic effects in many models likely overstates the response of wildfire to climatic change

Data-driven wildfire risk prediction in northern california

Over the years, rampant wildfires have plagued the state of California, creating economic and environmental loss. In 2018, wildfires cost nearly 800 million dollars in economic loss and claimed more than 100 lives in California. Over 1.6 million acres of land has burned and caused large sums of environmental damage. Although, recently, researchers have introduced machine learning models and algorithms in predicting the wildfire risks, these results focused on special perspectives and were restricted to a limited number of data parameters. In this paper, we have proposed two data-driven machine learning approaches based on random forest models to predict the wildfire risk at areas near Monticello and Winters, California. This study demonstrated how the models were developed and applied with comprehensive data parameters such as powerlines, terrain, and vegetation in different perspectives that improved the spatial and temporal accuracy in predicting the risk of wildfire including fire ignition. The combined model uses the spatial and the temporal parameters as a single combined dataset to train and predict the fire risk, whereas the ensemble model was fed separate parameters that were later stacked to work as a single model. Our experiment shows that the combined model produced better results compared to the ensemble of random forest models on separate spatial data in terms of accuracy. The models were validated with Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves, learning curves, and evaluation metrics such as: accuracy, confusion matrices, and classification report. The study results showed and achieved cutting-edge accuracy of 92% in predicting the wildfire risks, including ignition by utilizing the regional spatial and temporal data along with standard data parameters in Northern California

Smoke consequences of new wildfire regimes driven by climate change

Smoke from wildfires has adverse biological and social consequences, and various lines of evidence suggest that smoke from wildfires in the future may be more intense and widespread, demanding that methods be developed to address its effects on people, ecosystems, and the atmosphere. In this paper, we present the essential ingredients of a modeling system for projecting smoke consequences in a rapidly warming climate that is expected to change wildfire regimes significantly. We describe each component of the system, offer suggestions for the elements of a modeling agenda, and provide some general guidelines for making choices among potential components. We address a prospective audience of researchers whom we expect to be fluent already in building some or many of these components, so we neither prescribe nor advocate particular models or software. Instead, our intent is to highlight fruitful ways of thinking about the task as a whole and its components, while providing substantial, if not exhaustive, documentation from the primary literature as reference. This paper provides a guide to the complexities of smoke modeling under climate change, and a research agenda for developing a modeling system that is equal to the task while being feasible with current resources

The Burning Bush: Linking LiDAR-derived Shrub Architecture to Flammability

Light detection and ranging (LiDAR) and terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) sensors are powerful tools for characterizing vegetation structure and for constructing three-dimensional (3D) models of trees, also known as quantitative structural models (QSM). 3D models and structural traits derived from them provide valuable information for biodiversity conservation, forest management, and fire behavior modeling. However, vegetation studies and 3D modeling methodologies often only focus on the forest canopy, with little attention given to understory vegetation. In particular, 3D structural information of shrubs is limited or not included in fire behavior models. Yet, understory vegetation is an important component of forested ecosystems, and has an essential role in determining fire behavior. In this dissertation, I explored the use of TLS data and quantitative structure models to model shrub architecture in three related studies. In the first study, I present a semi-automated methodology for reconstructing architecturally different shrubs from TLS LiDAR. By investigating shrubs with different architectures and point cloud densities, I showed that occlusion, shrub complexity, and shape greatly affect the accuracy of shrub models. In my second study, I assessed the 3D architectural drivers of understory flammability by evaluating the use of architectural metrics derived from the TLS point cloud and 3D reconstructions of the shrubs. I focused on eight species common in the understory of the fire-prone longleaf pine forest ecosystem of the state of Florida, USA. I found a general tendency for each species to be associated with a unique combination of flammability and architectural traits. Novel shrub architectural traits were found to be complementary to the direct use of TLS data and improved flammability predictions. The inherent complexity of shrub architecture and uncertainty in the TLS point cloud make scaling up from an individual shrub to a plot level a challenging task. Therefore, in my third study, I explored the effects of lidar uncertainty on vegetation parameter prediction accuracy. I developed a practical workflow to create synthetic forest stands with varying densities, which were subsequently scanned with simulated terrestrial lidar. This provided data sets quantitatively similar to those created by real-world LiDAR measurements, but with the advantage of exact knowledge of the forest plot parameters, The results showed that the lidar scan location had a large effect on prediction accuracy. Furthermore, occlusion is strongly related to the sampling density and plot complexity. The results of this study illustrate the potential of non-destructive lidar approaches for quantifying shrub architectural traits. TLS, empirical quantitative structural models, and synthetic models provide valuable insights into shrub structure and fire behavior