Early hospital mortality prediction using vital signals

Early hospital mortality prediction is critical as intensivists strive to make efficient medical decisions about the severely ill patients staying in intensive care units. As a result, various methods have been developed to address this problem based on clinical records. However, some of the laboratory test results are time-consuming and need to be processed. In this paper, we propose a novel method to predict mortality using features extracted from the heart signals of patients within the first hour of ICU admission. In order to predict the risk, quantitative features have been computed based on the heart rate signals of ICU patients. Each signal is described in terms of 12 statistical and signal-based features. The extracted features are fed into eight classifiers: decision tree, linear discriminant, logistic regression, support vector machine (SVM), random forest, boosted trees, Gaussian SVM, and K-nearest neighborhood (K-NN). To derive insight into the performance of the proposed method, several experiments have been conducted using the well-known clinical dataset named Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC-III). The experimental results demonstrate the capability of the proposed method in terms of precision, recall, F1-score, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The decision tree classifier satisfies both accuracy and interpretability better than the other classifiers, producing an F1-score and AUC equal to 0.91 and 0.93, respectively. It indicates that heart rate signals can be used for predicting mortality in patients in the ICU, achieving a comparable performance with existing predictions that rely on high dimensional features from clinical records which need to be processed and may contain missing information.Comment: 11 pages, 5 figures, preprint of accepted paper in IEEE&ACM CHASE 2018 and published in Smart Health journa

Development of a MALDI MS-based platform for early detection of acute kidney injury

Purpose: Septic acute kidney injury (AKI) is associated with poor outcome. This can partly be attributed to delayed diagnosis and incomplete understanding of the underlying pathophysiology. Our aim was to develop an early predictive test for AKI based on the analysis of urinary peptide biomarkers by MALDI-MS. Experimental design: Urine samples from 95 patients with sepsis were analyzed by MALDI-MS. Marker search and multimarker model establishment were performed using the peptide profiles from 17 patients with existing or within the next 5 days developing AKI and 17 with no change in renal function. Replicates of urine sample pools from the AKI and non-AKI patient groups and normal controls were also included to select the analytically most robust AKI markers. Results: Thirty-nine urinary peptides were selected by cross-validated variable selection to generate a support vector machine multidimensional AKI classifier. Prognostic performance of the AKI classifier on an independent validation set including the remaining 61 patients of the study population (17 controls and 44 cases) was good with an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.82 and a sensitivity and specificity of 86% and 76%, respectively. Conclusion and clinical relevance: A urinary peptide marker model detects onset of AKI with acceptable accuracy in septic patients. Such a platform can eventually be transferred to the clinic as fast MALDI-MS test format

Early Recognition of Burn- and Trauma-Related Acute Kidney Injury: A Pilot Comparison of Machine Learning Techniques.

Severely burned and non-burned trauma patients are at risk for acute kidney injury (AKI). The study objective was to assess the theoretical performance of artificial intelligence (AI)/machine learning (ML) algorithms to augment AKI recognition using the novel biomarker, neutrophil gelatinase associated lipocalin (NGAL), combined with contemporary biomarkers such as N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), urine output (UOP), and plasma creatinine. Machine learning approaches including logistic regression (LR), k-nearest neighbor (k-NN), support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), and deep neural networks (DNN) were used in this study. The AI/ML algorithm helped predict AKI 61.8 (32.5) hours faster than the Kidney Disease and Improving Global Disease Outcomes (KDIGO) criteria for burn and non-burned trauma patients. NGAL was analytically superior to traditional AKI biomarkers such as creatinine and UOP. With ML, the AKI predictive capability of NGAL was further enhanced when combined with NT-proBNP or creatinine. The use of AI/ML could be employed with NGAL to accelerate detection of AKI in at-risk burn and non-burned trauma patients

Machine learning in critical care: state-of-the-art and a sepsis case study

Background: Like other scientific fields, such as cosmology, high-energy physics, or even the life sciences, medicine and healthcare face the challenge of an extremely quick transformation into data-driven sciences. This challenge entails the daunting task of extracting usable knowledge from these data using algorithmic methods. In the medical context this may for instance realized through the design of medical decision support systems for diagnosis, prognosis and patient management. The intensive care unit (ICU), and by extension the whole area of critical care, is becoming one of the most data-driven clinical environments. Results: The increasing availability of complex and heterogeneous data at the point of patient attention in critical care environments makes the development of fresh approaches to data analysis almost compulsory. Computational Intelligence (CI) and Machine Learning (ML) methods can provide such approaches and have already shown their usefulness in addressing problems in this context. The current study has a dual goal: it is first a review of the state-of-the-art on the use and application of such methods in the field of critical care. Such review is presented from the viewpoint of the different subfields of critical care, but also from the viewpoint of the different available ML and CI techniques. The second goal is presenting a collection of results that illustrate the breath of possibilities opened by ML and CI methods using a single problem, the investigation of septic shock at the ICU. Conclusion: We have presented a structured state-of-the-art that illustrates the broad-ranging ways in which ML and CI methods can make a difference in problems affecting the manifold areas of critical care. The potential of ML and CI has been illustrated in detail through an example concerning the sepsis pathology. The new definitions of sepsis and the relevance of using the systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) in its diagnosis have been considered. Conditional independence models have been used to address this problem, showing that SIRS depends on both organ dysfunction measured through the Sequential Organ Failure (SOFA) score and the ICU outcome, thus concluding that SIRS should still be considered in the study of the pathophysiology of Sepsis. Current assessment of the risk of dead at the ICU lacks specificity. ML and CI techniques are shown to improve the assessment using both indicators already in place and other clinical variables that are routinely measured. Kernel methods in particular are shown to provide the best performance balance while being amenable to representation through graphical models, which increases their interpretability and, with it, their likelihood to be accepted in medical practice.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Real-time predictive analytics for sepsis level and therapeutic plans in intensive care medicine

"Accepted for publication"This work aims to support doctor’s decision-making on predicting sepsis level and the best treatment for patients with microbiological problems. A set of Data Mining (DM) models was developed using forecasting techniques and classification models which will enable doctors’ decisions about the appropriate therapy to apply, as well as the most successful one. The data used in DM models were collected at the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) of the Centro Hospitalar do Porto, in Oporto, Portugal. Classification models where considered to predict sepsis level and therapeutic plan for patients with sepsis in a supervised learning approach. Models were induced making use of the following algorithms: Decision Trees, Support Vector Machines and Naïve Bayes classifier. Confusion Matrix, including associated metrics, and Cross-validation were used for the evaluation. Analysis of the total error rate, sensitivity, specificity and accuracy were the associated metrics used to identify the most relevant measures to predict sepsis level and treatment plan under study. In conclusion, it was possible to predict with great accuracy the sepsis level (2nd and 3rd), but not the therapeutic plan. Although the good results attained for sepsis (accuracy: 100%), therapeutic plan does not present the same level of accuracy (best: 62.8%).FCT -Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia(PEst-OE/EEI/UI0319/2014

Using data-driven rules to predict mortality in severe community acquired pneumonia

Prediction of patient-centered outcomes in hospitals is useful for performance benchmarking, resource allocation, and guidance regarding active treatment and withdrawal of care. Yet, their use by clinicians is limited by the complexity of available tools and amount of data required. We propose to use Disjunctive Normal Forms as a novel approach to predict hospital and 90-day mortality from instance-based patient data, comprising demographic, genetic, and physiologic information in a large cohort of patients admitted with severe community acquired pneumonia. We develop two algorithms to efficiently learn Disjunctive Normal Forms, which yield easy-to-interpret rules that explicitly map data to the outcome of interest. Disjunctive Normal Forms achieve higher prediction performance quality compared to a set of state-of-the-art machine learning models, and unveils insights unavailable with standard methods. Disjunctive Normal Forms constitute an intuitive set of prediction rules that could be easily implemented to predict outcomes and guide criteria-based clinical decision making and clinical trial execution, and thus of greater practical usefulness than currently available prediction tools. The Java implementation of the tool JavaDNF will be publicly available. © 2014 Wu et al