Smooth regression quantile estimation

In this thesis, attention will be mainly focused on the local linear kernel regression quantile estimation. Different estimators within this class have been proposed, developed asymptotically and applied to real applications. I include algorithmdesign and selection of smoothing parameters. Chapter 2 studies two estimators, first a single-kernel estimator based on "check function" and a bandwidth selection rule is proposed based on the asymptotic MSE of this estimator. Second a recursive double-kernel estimator which extends Fan et al's (1996) density estimator, and two algorithms are given for bandwidth selection. In Chapter 3, a comparison is carried out of local constant fitting and local linear fitting using MSEs of the estimates as a criterion. Chapter 4 gives a theoretical summary and a simulation study of local linear kernel estimation of conditional distribution function. This has a special interest in itself as well as being related to regression quantiles. In Chapter 5, a kernel-version method of LMS (Cole and Green, 1992) is considered. The method proposed, which is still a semi-parametric one, is based on a general idea of local linear kernel approach of log-likelihood model. Chapter 6 proposes a two-step method of smoothing regression quantiles called BPK. The method considered is based on the idea of combining k- NN method with Healy's et al (1988) partition rule, and correlated regression model are involved. In Chapter 7, methods of regression quantile estimation are compared for different underlying models and design densities in a simulation study. The ISE criterion of interior and boundary points is used as a basis for these comparisons. Three methods are recommended for quantile regression in practice, and they are double kernel method, LMS method and Box partition kernel method (BPK). In Chapter 8, attention is turned to a novel idea of local polynomial roughness penalty regression model, where a purely theoretical framework is considered

Probabilistic foundation of nonlocal diffusion and formulation and analysis for elliptic problems on uncertain domains

2011 Summer.Includes bibliographical references.In the first part of this dissertation, we study the nonlocal diffusion equation with so-called Lévy measure ν as the master equation for a pure-jump Lévy process. In the case ν ∈ L1(R), a relationship to fractional diffusion is established in a limit of vanishing nonlocality, which implies the convergence of a compound Poisson process to a stable process. In the case ν ∉ L1(R), the smoothing of the nonlocal operator is shown to correspond precisely to the activity of the underlying Lévy process and the variation of its sample paths. We introduce volume-constrained nonlocal diffusion equations and demonstrate that they are the master equations for Lévy processes restricted to a bounded domain. The ensuing variational formulation and conforming finite element method provide a powerful tool for studying both Lévy processes and fractional diffusion on bounded, non-simple geometries with volume constraints. In the second part of this dissertation, we consider the problem of estimating the distribution of a quantity of interest computed from the solution of an elliptic partial differential equation posed on a domain Ω(θ) ⊂ R2 with a randomly perturbed boundary, where (θ) is a random vector with given probability structure. We construct a piecewise smooth transformation from a partition of Ω(θ) to a reference domain Ω in order to avoid the complications associated with solving the problems on Ω(θ). The domain decomposition formulation is exploited by localizing the effect of the randomness to boundary elements in order to achieve a computationally efficient Monte Carlo sampling procedure. An a posteriori error analysis for the approximate distribution, which includes a deterministic error for each sample and a stochastic error from the effect of sampling, is also presented. We thus provide an efficient means to estimate the distribution of a quantity of interest via a Monte Carlo sampling procedure while also providing a posteriori error estimates for each sample

Predicting human activities patterns based on climate and related data

Human activities as agriculture and urban construction have altered a large portion of natural ecosystems and vegetation cover, defining three new land cover classes: croplands, urban and built-up areas and mosaics of croplands and natural vegetation. In a period in which climate is rapidly changing, understanding how climatic conditions are linked to the global distribution of human-modified land covers has fundamental importance. Our goal is to identify the aforementioned relationships and build models that predict realistic fractions of land covers associated with human activities only based on climate data. Decision trees and random forests have been employed to solve the three multiple regression problems, one for each human-modified land cover class. Experiments for optimal model selection have been conducted. Out of three land cover classes, only croplands responded well to modelisation. Decision trees exhibited sensible predictive accuracy and good potential for climatic patterns description, yet little robustness. Whereas, Random forests guaranteed higher accuracy and more stability, proving to be reasonably informative models. They provided valuable insights into the nature of the connections between climate and the distribution of croplands

Econometric analysis of economic and environmental efficiency of Dutch dairy farms

The Dutch government aims for competitive and sustainable farms, that use marketable inputs efficiently as well as apply environmentally detrimental variables efficiently in the production process. The objective of this research is to define, to estimate and to evaluate environmental efficiency. Environmental efficiency is a measure that allows for the combination of a firm's environmental pressure with its economic performance. If the environmental efficiency could be improved, the emission of nitrogen into the environment will decrease without loss of production or additional costs.Three econometric methods based on the neoclassical production theory (stochastic production frontier, output distance function and shadow cost system) are transformed to enable the definition and estimation of environmental efficiency. These methods are applied to a panel of Dutch dairy farms. Nitrogen surplus is the environmentally detrimental variable throughout this thesis. In the stochastic production frontier, nitrogen surplus is modelled as an environmentally detrimental input. In the distance function N surplus is applied as a bad output. Due to the materials balance definition of N surplus the shadow price of bad output is positive. A shadow cost system is used to compute the cost-efficient and the nitrogen-efficient production. The latter is based upon the input mix that minimises the nitrogen content of variable inputs. Finally the variation in efficiency is explained in a two-stage approach with characteristics that are hypothesised to influence environmental efficiency. The environmental efficiency measures are compared to alternative environmental indicators currently used.</p

Use of statistical modelling and analyses of malaria rapid diagnostic test outcome in Ethiopia.

Thesis (Ph.D.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2013.The transmission of malaria is among the leading public health problems in Ethiopia. From the total area of Ethiopia, more than 75% is malarious. Identifying the infectiousness of malaria by socio-economic, demographic and geographic risk factors based on the malaria rapid diagnosis test (RDT) survey results has several advantages for planning, monitoring and controlling, and eventual malaria eradication effort. Such a study requires thorough understanding of the diseases process and associated factors. However such studies are limited. Therefore, the aim of this study was to use different statistical tools suitable to identify socioeconomic, demographic and geographic risk factors of malaria based on the malaria rapid diagnosis test (RDT) survey results in Ethiopia. A total of 224 clusters of about 25 households were selected from the Amhara, Oromiya and Southern Nation Nationalities and People (SNNP) regions of Ethiopia. Accordingly, a number of binary response statistical analysis models were used. Multiple correspondence analysis was carried out to identify the association among socioeconomic, demographic and geographic factors. Moreover a number of binary response models such as survey logistic, GLMM, GLMM with spatial correlation, joint models and semi-parametric models were applied. To test and investigate how well the observed malaria RDT result, use of mosquito nets and use of indoor residual spray data fit the expectations of the model, Rasch model was used. The fitted models have their own strengths and weaknesses. Application of these models was carried out by analysing data on malaria RDT result. The data used in this study, which was conducted from December 2006 to January 2007 by The Carter Center, is from baseline malaria indicator survey in Amhara, Oromiya and Southern Nation Nationalities and People (SNNP) regions of Ethiopia. The correspondence analysis and survey logistic regression model was used to identify predictors which affect malaria RDT results. The effect of identified socioeconomic, demographic and geographic factors were subsequently explored by fitting a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), i.e., to assess the covariance structures of the random components (to assess the association structure of the data). To examine whether the data displayed any spatial autocorrelation, i.e., whether surveys that are near in space have malaria prevalence or incidence that is similar to the surveys that are far apart, spatial statistics analysis was performed. This was done by introducing spatial autocorrelation structure in GLMM. Moreover, the customary two variables joint modelling approach was extended to three variables joint effect by exploring the joint effect of malaria RDT result, use of mosquito nets and indoor residual spray in the last twelve months. Assessing the association between these outcomes was also of interest. Furthermore, the relationships between the response and some confounding covariates may have unknown functional form. This led to proposing the use of semiparametric additive models which are less restrictive in their specification. Therefore, generalized additive mixed models were used to model the effect of age, family size, number of rooms per person, number of nets per person, altitude and number of months the room sprayed nonparametrically. The result from the study suggests that with the correct use of mosquito nets, indoor residual spraying and other preventative measures, coupled with factors such as the number of rooms in a house, are associated with a decrease in the incidence of malaria as determined by the RDT. However, the study also suggests that the poor are less likely to use these preventative measures to effectively counteract the spread of malaria. In order to determine whether or not the limited number of respondents had undue influence on the malaria RDT result, a Rasch model was used. The result shows that none of the responses had such influences. Therefore, application of the Rasch model has supported the viability of the total sixteen (socio-economic, demographic and geographic) items for measuring malaria RDT result, use of indoor residual spray and use of mosquito nets. From the analysis it can be seen that the scale shows high reliability. Hence, the result from Rasch model supports the analysis carried out in previous models

Finite Element Models of Volcano Deformational Systems Having Structural Complexity

[spa] El objetivo principal de este trabajo es la construcción de modelos de elementos finitos (FEMs) 3-D con complejidades estructurales con el fin de simular sistemas volcánicos de manera más realista. Como ejemplo de aplicación se ha escogido la caldera de Rabaul, un sistema volcánico cuya dinámica no se comprende por completo. Invirtiendo los datos de InSAR recogidos durante los años 2007-2010, investigamos las fuentes de desplazamiento de la superficie y proporcionamos claves de relevancia sobre el sistema magmático superficial real. Incluyendo características realistas, como la topografía y heterogeneidades mecánicas, usamos las informaciones geofísicas y geológicas para construir modelos de FEMs complejos en 3D. En última instancia, proporcionamos una estrategia para llevar a cabo una inversión lineal basada en una matriz de fuentes que nos permite identificar una distribución de flujo de fluido a través de un volumen de posibles fuentes responsables de los cambios de presión en el medio según lo dictado por los datos, sin imponer a priori una forma de fuente específica y su profundidad. Los resultados permiten generar imágenes de la forma compleja de la fuente que da lugar a la deformación, en el espacio y en el tiempo, sin tener que utilizar ninguna fuente con una forma excesivamente simplificada a priori. Esto lleva el modelado de fuentes un paso adelante hacia modelos más realistas. En el caso de Rabaul, la aplicación de la metodología discutida anteriormente, muestra un sistema magmático superficial formado por dos lóbulos interconectados localizados bajo la caldera y en posiciones diametralmente opuestas. La interconexión y la distribución espacial de las fuentes encuentran correspondencia en la petrología de los productos descritos en literatura y en la dinámica de las erupciones que caracterizan la caldera. Los resultados obtenidos mediante la aplicación del método son satisfactorios y demuestran que la inversión lineal basada en la matriz de fuentes de FE propuesta puede ser considerada adecuada para generar modelos de sistemas magmáticos. Se puede aplicar fácilmente a cualquier volcán, ya que tiene en cuenta la deformación del edificio sin tener que especificar la forma de la fuente de deformación antes de la inversión.[eng] The main focus of this work is to build 3-D FEM models with structural complexities in order to simulate volcanic systems in a more realistic way. We use Rabaul as an example to show the application of the methods and strategies proposed to an active volcano. Rabaul caldera is a volcanic system whose dynamics still need to be understood to effectively predict the behavior of future eruptions. In comparison to the simplified analytic models used so far, more realistic models, such as Finite Elements Models (FEMs), are needed to more accurately explain recent deformation and understand the magmatic system. By inverting InSAR data collected between 2007 and 2010 (using linear inversions based on FEMs), we investigate the sources of surface displacement and provide insights about the actual shallow magmatic system. FEMs are numerical models that let us include realistic features such as topography and mechanical heterogeneities. We provide strategies to use geophysical and geological information to build complex 3-D parts and assemble them into 3-D models. We then compare the effects of different material properties configurations and of different source shapes on the deformational signal and on the strength source estimates (fluid flux or pressure). Ultimately, we provide a strategy for performing a linear inversion based on an array of FEM sources that allows us to identify a distribution of flux of fluid (or change in pressure) over a volume, without imposing an a-priori source shape and depth. We use Rabaul as an example to show the 3-D model’s validity and applicability to active volcanic areas. The methodology is based on generating a library of forward numerical displacement solutions, where each entry is the displacement generated by injecting a mass of fluid of known density and bulk modulus into a source of the array. The sources are simulated as fluid-filled cavities that can accept a specified flux of magma. As the array of sources is an intrinsic geometric aspect of all forward models and the sources are activated one at a time, the domain only needs to be discretized once. This strategy precludes the need for remeshing for each activated source and greatly reduces computational requirements. By using an array of sources, we are not investigating the geometric and pressure parameters of a simplified, unique source with a regular shape. Instead, we are investigating a distribution of flux of fluids over a volume of potential sources responsible for the pressure changes in the medium as dictated by the data. The results allow us to image the complex shape of the deformation source without having to use any a-priori or simplified sources. This takes source modeling a step towards more realistic source models. The application of the methodology to Rabaul shows a shallow magmatic system under the caldera made of two interconnected lobes located at the two opposite sides of the caldera. These lobes are suggested to be the feeding reservoirs of the ongoing Tavuvur volcano eruption, on the eastern side, and of the past Vulcan volcano eruptions, on the western side. The interconnection and spatial distribution of sources find correspondence in the petrography of the products described in literature and in the dynamics of the single and twin eruptions that characterize the caldera. The good results obtained from the application of the method show that the proposed linear inversion based on the FEM array of sources can be considered suitable for generating models of the magmatic system. It can be easily applied to any volcano, because it accounts for volcano deformation without having to specify the shape of the deformation source prior to inversion

Taylor Optimal Kernel for Derivative Etimation

International audienc

Abstracts on Radio Direction Finding (1899 - 1995)

The files on this record represent the various databases that originally composed the CD-ROM issue of "Abstracts on Radio Direction Finding" database, which is now part of the Dudley Knox Library's Abstracts and Selected Full Text Documents on Radio Direction Finding (1899 - 1995) Collection. (See Calhoun record https://calhoun.nps.edu/handle/10945/57364 for further information on this collection and the bibliography). Due to issues of technological obsolescence preventing current and future audiences from accessing the bibliography, DKL exported and converted into the three files on this record the various databases contained in the CD-ROM. The contents of these files are: 1) RDFA_CompleteBibliography_xls.zip [RDFA_CompleteBibliography.xls: Metadata for the complete bibliography, in Excel 97-2003 Workbook format; RDFA_Glossary.xls: Glossary of terms, in Excel 97-2003 Workbookformat; RDFA_Biographies.xls: Biographies of leading figures, in Excel 97-2003 Workbook format]; 2) RDFA_CompleteBibliography_csv.zip [RDFA_CompleteBibliography.TXT: Metadata for the complete bibliography, in CSV format; RDFA_Glossary.TXT: Glossary of terms, in CSV format; RDFA_Biographies.TXT: Biographies of leading figures, in CSV format]; 3) RDFA_CompleteBibliography.pdf: A human readable display of the bibliographic data, as a means of double-checking any possible deviations due to conversion