Modeling of electricity demand forecast for power system

© 2019, Springer-Verlag London Ltd., part of Springer Nature. The emerging complex circumstances caused by economy, technology, and government policy and the requirement of low-carbon development of power grid lead to many challenges in the power system coordination and operation. However, the real-time scheduling of electricity generation needs accurate modeling of electricity demand forecasting for a range of lead times. In order to better capture the nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics and the seasonal cycles of future electricity demand data, a new concept of the integrated model is developed and successfully applied to research the forecast of electricity demand in this paper. The proposed model combines adaptive Fourier decomposition method, a new signal preprocessing technology, for extracting useful element from the original electricity demand series through filtering the noise factors. Considering the seasonal term existing in the decomposed series, it should be eliminated through the seasonal adjustment method, in which the seasonal indexes are calculated and should multiply the forecasts back to restore the final forecast. Besides, a newly proposed moth-flame optimization algorithm is used to ensure the suitable parameters of the least square support vector machine which can generate the forecasts. Finally, the case studies of Australia demonstrated the efficacy and feasibility of the proposed integrated model. Simultaneously, it can provide a better concept of modeling for electricity demand prediction over different forecasting horizons

Meta-heuristic algorithms in car engine design: a literature survey

Meta-heuristic algorithms are often inspired by natural phenomena, including the evolution of species in Darwinian natural selection theory, ant behaviors in biology, flock behaviors of some birds, and annealing in metallurgy. Due to their great potential in solving difficult optimization problems, meta-heuristic algorithms have found their way into automobile engine design. There are different optimization problems arising in different areas of car engine management including calibration, control system, fault diagnosis, and modeling. In this paper we review the state-of-the-art applications of different meta-heuristic algorithms in engine management systems. The review covers a wide range of research, including the application of meta-heuristic algorithms in engine calibration, optimizing engine control systems, engine fault diagnosis, and optimizing different parts of engines and modeling. The meta-heuristic algorithms reviewed in this paper include evolutionary algorithms, evolution strategy, evolutionary programming, genetic programming, differential evolution, estimation of distribution algorithm, ant colony optimization, particle swarm optimization, memetic algorithms, and artificial immune system

Hybrid meta-heuristic algorithm based parameter optimization for extreme learning machines classification

Most classification algorithms suffer from manual parameter tuning and it affects the training computational time and accuracy performance. Extreme Learning Machines (ELM) emerged as a fast training machine learning algorithm that eliminates parameter tuning by randomly assigning the input weights and biases, and analytically determining the output weights using Moore Penrose generalized inverse method. However, the randomness assignment, does not guarantee an optimal set of input weights and biases of the hidden neurons. This will lead to ELM instability and local minimum solution. ELM performance also is affected by the network structure especially the number of hidden nodes. Too many hidden neurons will increase the network structure complexity and computational time. While too few hidden neuron numbers will affect the ELM generalization ability and reduce the accuracy. In this study, a heuristic-based ELM (HELM) scheme was designed to secure an optimal ELM structure. The results of HELM were validated with five rule-based hidden neuron selection schemes. Then HELM performance was compared with Support Vector Machine (SVM), k-Nearest Neighbour (KNN), and Classification and Regression Tree (CART) to investigate its relative competitiveness. Secondly, to improve the stability of ELM, the Moth-Flame Optimization algorithm is hybridized with ELM as MFO-ELM. MFO generates moths and optimizes their positions in the search space with a logarithm spiral model to obtain the optimal values of input weights and biases. The optimal weights and biases from the search space were passed into the ELM input space. However, it did not completely solve the problem of been stuck in the local extremum since MFO could not ensure a good balance between the exploration and exploitation of the search space. Thirdly, a co-evolutionary hybrid algorithm of the Cross-Entropy Moth-Flame Optimization Extreme Learning Machines (CEMFO-ELM) scheme was proposed. The hybrid of CE and MFO metaheuristic algorithms ensured a balance of exploration and exploitation in the search space and reduced the possibility of been trapped in the local minima. The performances of these schemes were evaluated on some selected medical datasets from the University of California, Irvine (UCI) machine learning repository, and compared with standard ELM, PSO-ELM, and CSO-ELM. The hybrid MFO-ELM algorithm enhanced the selection of optimal weights and biases for ELM, therefore improved its classification accuracy in a range of 0.4914 - 6.0762%, and up to 8.9390% with the other comparative ELM optimized meta-heuristic algorithms. The convergence curves plot show that the proposed hybrid CEMFO meta-heuristic algorithm ensured a balance between the exploration and exploitation in the search space, thereby improved the stability up to 53.75%. The overall findings showed that the proposed CEMFO-ELM provided better generalization performance on the classification of medical datasets. Thus, CEMFO-ELM is a suitable tool to be used not only in solving medical classification problems but potentially be used in other real-world problems

An innovative metaheuristic strategy for solar energy management through a neural networks framework

Proper management of solar energy as an effective renewable source is of high importance toward sustainable energy harvesting. This paper offers a novel sophisticated method for predicting solar irradiance (SIr) from environmental conditions. To this end, an efficient metaheuristic technique, namely electromagnetic field optimization (EFO), is employed for optimizing a neural network. This algorithm quickly mines a publicly available dataset for nonlinearly tuning the network parameters. To suggest an optimal configuration, five influential parameters of the EFO are optimized by an extensive trial and error practice. Analyzing the results showed that the proposed model can learn the SIr pattern and predict it for unseen conditions with high accuracy. Furthermore, it provided about 10% and 16% higher accuracy compared to two benchmark optimizers, namely shuffled complex evolution and shuffled frog leaping algorithm. Hence, the EFO-supervised neural network can be a promising tool for the early prediction of SIr in practice. The findings of this research may shed light on the use of advanced intelligent models for efficient energy development

An ensemble deep learning model for exhaust emissions prediction of heavy oil-fired boiler combustion

Accurate and reliable prediction of exhaust emissions is crucial for combustion optimization control and environmental protection. This study proposes a novel ensemble deep learning model for exhaust emissions (NOx and CO2) prediction. In this ensemble learning model, the stacked denoising autoencoder is established to extract the deep features of flame images. Four forecasting engines include artificial neural network, extreme learning machine, support vector machine and least squares support vector machine are employed for preliminary prediction of NOx and CO2 emissions based on the extracted image deep features. After that, these preliminary predictions are combined by Gaussian process regression in a nonlinear manner to achieve a final prediction of the emissions. The effectiveness of the proposed ensemble deep learning model is evaluated through 4.2Â MW heavy oil-fired boiler flame images. Experimental results suggest that the predictions are achieved from the four forecasting engines are inconsistent, however, an accurate prediction accuracy has been achieved through the proposed model. The proposed ensemble deep learning model not only provides accurate point prediction but also generates satisfactory confidence interval

Computational Optimizations for Machine Learning

The present book contains the 10 articles finally accepted for publication in the Special Issue “Computational Optimizations for Machine Learning” of the MDPI journal Mathematics, which cover a wide range of topics connected to the theory and applications of machine learning, neural networks and artificial intelligence. These topics include, among others, various types of machine learning classes, such as supervised, unsupervised and reinforcement learning, deep neural networks, convolutional neural networks, GANs, decision trees, linear regression, SVM, K-means clustering, Q-learning, temporal difference, deep adversarial networks and more. It is hoped that the book will be interesting and useful to those developing mathematical algorithms and applications in the domain of artificial intelligence and machine learning as well as for those having the appropriate mathematical background and willing to become familiar with recent advances of machine learning computational optimization mathematics, which has nowadays permeated into almost all sectors of human life and activity

An artificial intelligence platform for design optimization and data analysis: application for fire and ventilation problems

This thesis focuses on the development of novel multi-objective software platforms to assist engineering design and investigation, especially for simulation-based indoor environment problems, which always involve multiple evaluation criteria. In addition, this thesis aims to develop new methods to reduce the computational cost associated with the design process. In modern building design, engineers are constantly facing challenging to find an optimal design to maintain a high level of thermal comfort and indoor air quality for occupants while minimizing the system energy consumption. Over the past decades, several algorithms have been proposed and developed for optimizing the heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) system for indoor environment. Nevertheless, the majority of these optimization algorithms are focused on single objective optimization procedures and require a large training sample for surrogate modelling. For multi-objective HVAC design problems, previous studies introduced an arbitrary weighting factor to combine all design objectives into one single objective function. The near-optimal solutions were however sensitive to the chosen value of the weighting factor. In another hand, the computational cost is very heavy in the computer-aided investigation process of reverse engineering problems. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) aided fire investigation is one of the reverse engineering. With the significant growth of the world population, our cities are becoming more and more crowding. In this situation, any fire occurring would cause severe consequences, including property damage and human injuries or even deaths. In assessing the fire cause, the fire origin determination is a crucial step identifying the origin of fire outbreak and the sequential fire and smoke propagation. Traditionally, fire investigators relied upon the visible fire damages at the fire scene to determine the location of fire originated based on their own professional experience. The fire investigation process is however subject to the expert interpretation inherently embedded in the qualitative analyses. In addition, we are living in an era of big data, where lots amount of data are generating every day, especially in engineering field. Traditional analysis methods are not suitable to handle large amount of data quickly and accurately. In contrast, new techniques such as machine learning are able to deal with big data and extract data features. The main body of this thesis is composed of seven chapters, and the details of each chapter are as the followings: The research background and a comprehensive literature review are described in the first two chapters where the research gaps found in the existing literatures are discussed. From Chapter 3 to Chapter 6, the main contributions of this research are demonstrated. In Chapter 3, a nondominated sorting-based particle swarm optimization (NSPSO) algorithm together with the Kriging method to perform optimization for the HVAC system design of a typical office room was developed. In addition, an adaptive sampling procedure was also introduced to enable the optimization platform to adjust the sampling point and resolution in constructing the training sample. Chapter 4 presents a Multi-fidelity Kriging algorithm to quantitatively determine the fire origin based on the soot deposition patterns predicted by the numerical simulations, which provides an unbiased and fast methodology to assist the fire investigation. A comprehensive multi-objective optimization platform of the ventilation system inside a typical high-speed train (HST) cabin is discussed in Chapter 5, where the NSPSO and the Multi-fidelity Kriging were combined together to reduce computational cost. Chapter 6 demonstrates a successful application of convolutional neural networks (CNN) in vegetation feature analysis to help cut powerline wildfire risk caused by vegetation conduction ignition. Finally, all the contributions in this research are summarised in Chapter 7

Machine Learning and Its Application to Reacting Flows

This open access book introduces and explains machine learning (ML) algorithms and techniques developed for statistical inferences on a complex process or system and their applications to simulations of chemically reacting turbulent flows. These two fields, ML and turbulent combustion, have large body of work and knowledge on their own, and this book brings them together and explain the complexities and challenges involved in applying ML techniques to simulate and study reacting flows. This is important as to the world’s total primary energy supply (TPES), since more than 90% of this supply is through combustion technologies and the non-negligible effects of combustion on environment. Although alternative technologies based on renewable energies are coming up, their shares for the TPES is are less than 5% currently and one needs a complete paradigm shift to replace combustion sources. Whether this is practical or not is entirely a different question, and an answer to this question depends on the respondent. However, a pragmatic analysis suggests that the combustion share to TPES is likely to be more than 70% even by 2070. Hence, it will be prudent to take advantage of ML techniques to improve combustion sciences and technologies so that efficient and “greener” combustion systems that are friendlier to the environment can be designed. The book covers the current state of the art in these two topics and outlines the challenges involved, merits and drawbacks of using ML for turbulent combustion simulations including avenues which can be explored to overcome the challenges. The required mathematical equations and backgrounds are discussed with ample references for readers to find further detail if they wish. This book is unique since there is not any book with similar coverage of topics, ranging from big data analysis and machine learning algorithm to their applications for combustion science and system design for energy generation

Monte Carlo Method with Heuristic Adjustment for Irregularly Shaped Food Product Volume Measurement

Volume measurement plays an important role in the production and processing of food products. Various methods have been proposed to measure the volume of food products with irregular shapes based on 3D reconstruction. However, 3D reconstruction comes with a high-priced computational cost. Furthermore, some of the volume measurement methods based on 3D reconstruction have a low accuracy. Another method for measuring volume of objects uses Monte Carlo method. Monte Carlo method performs volume measurements using random points. Monte Carlo method only requires information regarding whether random points fall inside or outside an object and does not require a 3D reconstruction. This paper proposes volume measurement using a computer vision system for irregularly shaped food products without 3D reconstruction based on Monte Carlo method with heuristic adjustment. Five images of food product were captured using five cameras and processed to produce binary images. Monte Carlo integration with heuristic adjustment was performed to measure the volume based on the information extracted from binary images. The experimental results show that the proposed method provided high accuracy and precision compared to the water displacement method. In addition, the proposed method is more accurate and faster than the space carving method