A Data-Driven Reliability Estimation Approach for Phased-Mission Systems

We attempt to address the issues associated with reliability estimation for phased-mission systems (PMS) and present a novel data-driven approach to achieve reliability estimation for PMS using the condition monitoring information and degradation data of such system under dynamic operating scenario. In this sense, this paper differs from the existing methods only considering the static scenario without using the real-time information, which aims to estimate the reliability for a population but not for an individual. In the presented approach, to establish a linkage between the historical data and real-time information of the individual PMS, we adopt a stochastic filtering model to model the phase duration and obtain the updated estimation of the mission time by Bayesian law at each phase. At the meanwhile, the lifetime of PMS is estimated from degradation data, which are modeled by an adaptive Brownian motion. As such, the mission reliability can be real time obtained through the estimated distribution of the mission time in conjunction with the estimated lifetime distribution. We demonstrate the usefulness of the developed approach via a numerical example

A novel discrete bat algorithm for heterogeneous redundancy allocation of multi-state systems subject to probabilistic common-cause failure

The file attached to this record is the author's final peer reviewed version. The Publisher's final version can be found by following the DOI link.This paper focuses on a heterogeneous redundancy allocation problem (RAP) for multi-state series-parallel systems subject to probabilistic common-cause failure and proposes a novel discrete bat algorithm to solve it. Although abundant research studies have been published for solving multi-state RAPs, few of them have studied probabilistic common cause failure, which motivates this paper. Due to the insufficient data of components, an interval-valued universal generating function is utilized to evaluate the availability of components and the whole system. The challenge of solving this kind of RAPs lies in not only the reliability estimation, but also the solution method. This paper presents a novel discrete bat algorithm (BA) for effectively dealing with the proposed RAP and alleviating the premature convergence of BA. Two main features of the adaptation are Hamming distance-based bat movement (HDBM) and Q learning-based local search (QLLS). HDBM transfers the Hamming distance between the current bat and the best bat in the swarm to the movement rate. Then, QLLS utilizes Q-learning to adjust the local search strategies dynamically during the iterations. The computational results from extensive experiments demonstrate that the proposed algorithm is powerful, which is more efficient than other state-of-the-arts on this sort of problems

Space transportation booster engine configuration study. Addendum: Design definition document

Gas generator engine characteristics and results of engine configuration refinements are discussed. Updated component mechanical design, performance, and manufacturing information is provided. The results are also provided of ocean recovery studies and various engine integration tasks. The details are provided of the maintenance plan for the Space Transportation Booster Engine

Enhancing the performance of automated guided vehicles through reliability, operation and maintenance assessment

Automated guided vehicles (AGVs), a type of unmanned moving robots that move along fixed routes or are directed by laser navigation systems, are increasingly used in modern society to improve efficiency and lower the cost of production. A fleet of AGVs operate together to form a fully automatic transport system, which is known as an AGV system. To date, their added value in efficiency improvement and cost reduction has been sufficiently explored via conducting in-depth research on route optimisation, system layout configuration, and traffic control. However, their safe application has not received sufficient attention although the failure of AGVs may significantly impact the operation and efficiency of the entire system. This issue becomes more markable today particularly in the light of the fact that the size of AGV systems is becoming much larger and their operating environment is becoming more complex than ever before. This motivates the research into AGV reliability, availability and maintenance issues in this thesis, which aims to answer the following four fundamental questions: (1) How could AGVs fail? (2) How is the reliability of individual AGVs in the system assessed? (3) How does a failed AGV affect the operation of the other AGVs and the performance of the whole system? (4) How can an optimal maintenance strategy for AGV systems be achieved? In order to answer these questions, the method for identifying the critical subsystems and actions of AGVs is studied first in this thesis. Then based on the research results, mathematical models are developed in Python to simulate AGV systems and assess their performance in different scenarios. In the research of this thesis, Failure Mode, Effects and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) was adopted first to analyse the failure modes and effects of individual AGV subsystems. The interactions of these subsystems were studied via performing Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). Then, a mathematical model was developed to simulate the operation of a single AGV with the aid of Petri Nets (PNs). Since most existing AGV systems in modern industries and warehouses consist of multiple AGVs that operate synchronously to perform specific tasks, it is necessary to investigate the interactions between different AGVs in the same system. To facilitate the research of multi-AGV systems, the model of a three-AGV system with unidirectional paths was considered. In the model, an advanced concept PN, namely Coloured Petri Net (CPN), was creatively used to describe the movements of the AGVs. Attributing to the application of CPN, not only the movements of the AGVs but also the various operation and maintenance activities of the AGV systems (for example, item delivery, corrective maintenance, periodic maintenance, etc.) can be readily simulated. Such a unique technique provides us with an effective tool to investigate larger-scale AGV systems. To investigate the reliability, efficiency and maintenance of dynamic AGV systems which consist of multiple single-load and multi-load AGVs traveling along different bidirectional routes in different missions, an AGV system consisting of 9 stations was simulated using the CPN methods. Moreover, the automatic recycling of failed AGVs is studied as well in order to further reduce human participation in the operation of AGV systems. Finally, the simulation results were used to optimise the design, operation and maintenance of multi-AGV systems with the consideration of the throughputs and corresponding costs of them.The research reported in this thesis contributes to the design, reliability, operation, and maintenance of large-scale AGV systems in the modern and rapidly changing world.</div

A contribution to the evaluation and optimization of networks reliability

L’évaluation de la fiabilité des réseaux est un problème combinatoire très complexe qui nécessite des moyens de calcul très puissants. Plusieurs méthodes ont été proposées dans la littérature pour apporter des solutions. Certaines ont été programmées dont notamment les méthodes d’énumération des ensembles minimaux et la factorisation, et d’autres sont restées à l’état de simples théories. Cette thèse traite le cas de l’évaluation et l’optimisation de la fiabilité des réseaux. Plusieurs problèmes ont été abordés dont notamment la mise au point d’une méthodologie pour la modélisation des réseaux en vue de l’évaluation de leur fiabilités. Cette méthodologie a été validée dans le cadre d’un réseau de radio communication étendu implanté récemment pour couvrir les besoins de toute la province québécoise. Plusieurs algorithmes ont aussi été établis pour générer les chemins et les coupes minimales pour un réseau donné. La génération des chemins et des coupes constitue une contribution importante dans le processus d’évaluation et d’optimisation de la fiabilité. Ces algorithmes ont permis de traiter de manière rapide et efficace plusieurs réseaux tests ainsi que le réseau de radio communication provincial. Ils ont été par la suite exploités pour évaluer la fiabilité grâce à une méthode basée sur les diagrammes de décision binaire. Plusieurs contributions théoriques ont aussi permis de mettre en place une solution exacte de la fiabilité des réseaux stochastiques imparfaits dans le cadre des méthodes de factorisation. A partir de cette recherche plusieurs outils ont été programmés pour évaluer et optimiser la fiabilité des réseaux. Les résultats obtenus montrent clairement un gain significatif en temps d’exécution et en espace de mémoire utilisé par rapport à beaucoup d’autres implémentations. Mots-clés: Fiabilité, réseaux, optimisation, diagrammes de décision binaire, ensembles des chemins et coupes minimales, algorithmes, indicateur de Birnbaum, systèmes de radio télécommunication, programmes.Efficient computation of systems reliability is required in many sensitive networks. Despite the increased efficiency of computers and the proliferation of algorithms, the problem of finding good and quickly solutions in the case of large systems remains open. Recently, efficient computation techniques have been recognized as significant advances to solve the problem during a reasonable period of time. However, they are applicable to a special category of networks and more efforts still necessary to generalize a unified method giving exact solution. Assessing the reliability of networks is a very complex combinatorial problem which requires powerful computing resources. Several methods have been proposed in the literature. Some have been implemented including minimal sets enumeration and factoring methods, and others remained as simple theories. This thesis treats the case of networks reliability evaluation and optimization. Several issues were discussed including the development of a methodology for modeling networks and evaluating their reliabilities. This methodology was validated as part of a radio communication network project. In this work, some algorithms have been developed to generate minimal paths and cuts for a given network. The generation of paths and cuts is an important contribution in the process of networks reliability and optimization. These algorithms have been subsequently used to assess reliability by a method based on binary decision diagrams. Several theoretical contributions have been proposed and helped to establish an exact solution of the stochastic networks reliability in which edges and nodes are subject to failure using factoring decomposition theorem. From this research activity, several tools have been implemented and results clearly show a significant gain in time execution and memory space used by comparison to many other implementations. Key-words: Reliability, Networks, optimization, binary decision diagrams, minimal paths set and cuts set, algorithms, Birnbaum performance index, Networks, radio-telecommunication systems, programs

Design requirements for SRB production control system. Volume 2: System requirements and conceptual description

In the development of the business system for the SRB automated production control system, special attention had to be paid to the unique environment posed by the space shuttle. The issues posed by this environment, and the means by which they were addressed, are reviewed. The change in management philosphy which will be required as NASA switches from one-of-a-kind launches to multiple launches is discussed. The implications of the assembly process on the business system are described. These issues include multiple missions, multiple locations and facilities, maintenance and refurbishment, multiple sources, and multiple contractors. The implications of these aspects on the automated production control system are reviewed including an assessment of the six major subsystems, as well as four other subsystem. Some general system requirements which flow through the entire business system are described

Aerospace Medicine and Biology

This bibliography lists 184 reports, articles and other documents introduced into the NASA Scientific and Technical Information System during October 1989. Subject coverage includes: aerospace medicine and psychology, life support systems and controlled environments, safety equipment, exobiology and extraterrestrial life, and flight crew behavior and performance

Un cadre holistique de la modélisation de la dégradation pour l’analyse de fiabilité et optimisation de la maintenance de systèmes de sécurité nucléaires

Components of nuclear safety systems are in general highly reliable, which leads to a difficulty in modeling their degradation and failure behaviors due to the limited amount of data available. Besides, the complexity of such modeling task is increased by the fact that these systems are often subject to multiple competing degradation processes and that these can be dependent under certain circumstances, and influenced by a number of external factors (e.g. temperature, stress, mechanical shocks, etc.). In this complicated problem setting, this PhD work aims to develop a holistic framework of models and computational methods for the reliability-based analysis and maintenance optimization of nuclear safety systems taking into account the available knowledge on the systems, degradation and failure behaviors, their dependencies, the external influencing factors and the associated uncertainties.The original scientific contributions of the work are: (1) For single components, we integrate random shocks into multi-state physics models for component reliability analysis, considering general dependencies between the degradation and two types of random shocks. (2) For multi-component systems (with a limited number of components):(a) a piecewise-deterministic Markov process modeling framework is developed to treat degradation dependency in a system whose degradation processes are modeled by physics-based models and multi-state models; (b) epistemic uncertainty due to incomplete or imprecise knowledge is considered and a finite-volume scheme is extended to assess the (fuzzy) system reliability; (c) the mean absolute deviation importance measures are extended for components with multiple dependent competing degradation processes and subject to maintenance; (d) the optimal maintenance policy considering epistemic uncertainty and degradation dependency is derived by combining finite-volume scheme, differential evolution and non-dominated sorting differential evolution; (e) the modeling framework of (a) is extended by including the impacts of random shocks on the dependent degradation processes.(3) For multi-component systems (with a large number of components), a reliability assessment method is proposed considering degradation dependency, by combining binary decision diagrams and Monte Carlo simulation to reduce computational costs.Composants de systèmes de sûreté nucléaire sont en général très fiable, ce qui conduit à une difficulté de modéliser leurs comportements de dégradation et d'échec en raison de la quantité limitée de données disponibles. Par ailleurs, la complexité de cette tâche de modélisation est augmentée par le fait que ces systèmes sont souvent l'objet de multiples processus concurrents de dégradation et que ceux-ci peut être dépendants dans certaines circonstances, et influencé par un certain nombre de facteurs externes (par exemple la température, le stress, les chocs mécaniques, etc.).Dans ce cadre de problème compliqué, ce travail de thèse vise à développer un cadre holistique de modèles et de méthodes de calcul pour l'analyse basée sur la fiabilité et la maintenance d'optimisation des systèmes de sûreté nucléaire en tenant compte des connaissances disponibles sur les systèmes, les comportements de dégradation et de défaillance, de leurs dépendances, les facteurs influençant externes et les incertitudes associées.Les contributions scientifiques originales dans la thèse sont:(1) Pour les composants simples, nous intégrons des chocs aléatoires dans les modèles de physique multi-états pour l'analyse de la fiabilité des composants qui envisagent dépendances générales entre la dégradation et de deux types de chocs aléatoires.(2) Pour les systèmes multi-composants (avec un nombre limité de composants):(a) un cadre de modélisation de processus de Markov déterministes par morceaux est développé pour traiter la dépendance de dégradation dans un système dont les processus de dégradation sont modélisées par des modèles basés sur la physique et des modèles multi-états; (b) l'incertitude épistémique à cause de la connaissance incomplète ou imprécise est considéré et une méthode volumes finis est prolongée pour évaluer la fiabilité (floue) du système; (c) les mesures d'importance de l'écart moyen absolu sont étendues pour les composants avec multiples processus concurrents dépendants de dégradation et soumis à l'entretien; (d) la politique optimale de maintenance compte tenu de l'incertitude épistémique et la dépendance de dégradation est dérivé en combinant schéma volumes finis, évolution différentielle et non-dominée de tri évolution différentielle; (e) le cadre de la modélisation de (a) est étendu en incluant les impacts des chocs aléatoires sur les processus dépendants de dégradation.(3) Pour les systèmes multi-composants (avec un grand nombre de composants), une méthode d'évaluation de la fiabilité est proposé considérant la dépendance dégradation en combinant des diagrammes de décision binaires et simulation de Monte Carlo pour réduire le coût de calcul

Survivability modeling for cyber-physical systems subject to data corruption

Cyber-physical critical infrastructures are created when traditional physical infrastructure is supplemented with advanced monitoring, control, computing, and communication capability. More intelligent decision support and improved efficacy, dependability, and security are expected. Quantitative models and evaluation methods are required for determining the extent to which a cyber-physical infrastructure improves on its physical predecessors. It is essential that these models reflect both cyber and physical aspects of operation and failure. In this dissertation, we propose quantitative models for dependability attributes, in particular, survivability, of cyber-physical systems. Any malfunction or security breach, whether cyber or physical, that causes the system operation to depart from specifications will affect these dependability attributes. Our focus is on data corruption, which compromises decision support -- the fundamental role played by cyber infrastructure. The first research contribution of this work is a Petri net model for information exchange in cyber-physical systems, which facilitates i) evaluation of the extent of data corruption at a given time, and ii) illuminates the service degradation caused by propagation of corrupt data through the cyber infrastructure. In the second research contribution, we propose metrics and an evaluation method for survivability, which captures the extent of functionality retained by a system after a disruptive event. We illustrate the application of our methods through case studies on smart grids, intelligent water distribution networks, and intelligent transportation systems. Data, cyber infrastructure, and intelligent control are part and parcel of nearly every critical infrastructure that underpins daily life in developed countries. Our work provides means for quantifying and predicting the service degradation caused when cyber infrastructure fails to serve its intended purpose. It can also serve as the foundation for efforts to fortify critical systems and mitigate inevitable failures --Abstract, page iii