Spatial Scaling of Avian Population Dynamics: Population Abundance, Growth Rate, and Variability

Synchrony in population fluctuations has been identified as an important component of population dynamics. In a previous study, we determined that local‐scale (\u3c15‐km) spatial synchrony of bird populations in New England was correlated with synchronous fluctuations in lepidopteran larvae abundance and with the North Atlantic Oscillation. Here we address five questions that extend the scope of our earlier study using North American Breeding Bird Survey data. First, do bird populations in eastern North America exhibit spatial synchrony in abundances at scales beyond those we have documented previously? Second, does spatial synchrony depend on what population metric is analyzed (e.g., abundance, growth rate, or variability)? Third, is there geographic concordance in where species exhibit synchrony? Fourth, for those species that exhibit significant geographic concordance, are there landscape and habitat variables that contribute to the observed patterns? Fifth, is spatial synchrony affected by a species\u27 life history traits? Significant spatial synchrony was common and its magnitude was dependent on the population metric analyzed. Twenty‐four of 29 species examined exhibited significant synchrony in population abundance: mean local autocorrelation (ρ) = 0.15; mean spatial extent (mean distance where ρ = 0) = 420.7 km. Five of the 29 species exhibited significant synchrony in annual population growth rate (mean local autocorrelation = 0.06, mean distance = 457.8 km). Ten of the 29 species exhibited significant synchrony in population abundance variability (mean local autocorrelation = 0.49, mean distance = 413.8 km). Analyses of landscape structure indicated that habitat variables were infrequent contributors to spatial synchrony. Likewise, we detected no effects of life history traits on synchrony in population abundance or growth rate. However, short‐distance migrants exhibited more spatially extensive synchrony in population variability than either year‐round residents or long‐distance migrants. The dissimilarity of the spatial extent of synchrony across species suggests that most populations are not regulated at similar spatial scales. The spatial scale of the population synchrony patterns we describe is likely larger than the actual scale of population regulation, and in turn, the scale of population regulation is undoubtedly larger than the scale of individual ecological requirements

A global geography of synchrony for marine phytoplankton

Aim Spatial synchrony in plankton is imperfectly understood yet may have far-reaching implications, for example for carbon export to the deep ocean. Several techniques have been used to describe patterns of spatial synchrony, from correlation coefficients to spectral methods. Some studies have used temporally extensive data sets to identify causes of synchrony. This study instead uses the exceptional spatial extent provided by remotely sensed data to describe, for the first time as far as we know, geographical patterns of synchrony in marine phytoplankton. We use these patterns to illuminate drivers of synchrony and of its geography. Location The oceans. Time period 2003–2015. Major taxon Chlorophyll a-containing phytoplankton. Methods Synchrony in chlorophyll a concentrations is mapped globally. Spatial statistics and model selection are used to illuminate main statistical determinants of synchrony and of geographical patterns in synchrony. Results The first main result is that there is a pronounced and previously unmapped geography of synchrony for phytoplankton. For instance, synchrony was highest in the open ocean, specifically in gyres, and lowest in coastal regions. Spatial modelling provided the second main result that synchrony in sea surface temperature (SST) was a major statistical determinant of chlorophyll synchrony in both the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, indicating a strong Moran effect, although possibly an indirect and/or complex one. In the Pacific Ocean, this effect depended on the time-scales on which synchrony was assessed, providing our third result, which is that synchrony of phytoplankton and its geography can be time-scale specific. Synchrony of surface solar irradiance was not associated with synchrony of chlorophyll. Main conclusions To our knowledge, this study is the first to map geography of synchrony in marine plankton. We showed that this geography is pronounced. Geographical patterns illuminated determinants of synchrony. The geography of synchrony is a major phenomenon that has been little explored

Spatial synchrony in stream fish populations: influence of species traits

Spatial synchrony in population dynamics has been identified in most taxonomic groups. Numerous studies have reported varying levels of spatial synchrony among closely-related species, suggesting that species' characteristics may play a role in determining the level of synchrony. However, few studies have attempted to relate this synchrony to the ecological characteristics and/or life-history traits of species. Yet, as to some extent the extinction risk may be related to synchrony patterns, identifying a link between species' characteristics and spatial synchrony is crucial, and would help us to define effective conservation planning. Here, we investigated whether species attributes and temperature synchrony (i.e. a proxy of the Moran effect) account for the differences in spatial population synchrony observed in 27 stream fish species in France. After measuring and testing the level of synchrony for each species, we performed a comparative analysis to detect the phylogenetic signal of these levels, and to construct various multi-predictor models with species traits and temperature synchrony as covariates, while taking phylogenetic relatedness into account. We then performed model averaging on selected models to take model uncertainty into account in our parameter estimates. Fifteen of the 27 species displayed a significant level of synchrony. Synchrony was weak, but highly variable between species, and was not conserved across the phylogeny. We found that some species' characteristics significantly influenced synchrony levels. Indeed, the average model indicated that species associated with greater dispersal abilities, lower thermal tolerance, and opportunistic strategy displayed a higher degree of synchrony. These findings indicate that phylogeny and spatial temperature synchrony do not provide information pertinent for explaining the variations in species' synchrony levels, whereas the dispersal abilities, the life-history strategies and the upper thermal tolerance limits of species do appear to be quite reliable predictors of synchrony levels

Spatial synchrony is related to environmental change in Finnish moth communities

Spatially distinct pairs of sites may have similarly fluctuating population dynamics across large geographical distances, a phenomenon called spatial synchrony. However, species rarely exist in isolation, but rather as members of interactive communities, linked with other communities through dispersal (i.e. a metacommunity). Using data on Finnish moth communities sampled across 65 sites for 20 years, we examine the complex synchronous/anti-synchronous relationships among sites using the geography of synchrony framework. We relate site-level synchrony to mean and temporal variation in climatic data, finding that colder and drier sites-and those with the most drastic temperature increases-are important for spatial synchrony. This suggests that faster-warming sites contribute most strongly to site-level estimates of synchrony, highlighting the role of a changing climate to spatial synchrony. Considering the spatial variability in climate change rates is therefore important to understand metacommunity dynamics and identify habitats which contribute most strongly to spatial synchrony.peerReviewe

Local variations in spatial synchrony of influenza epidemics

Background: Understanding the mechanism of influenza spread across multiple geographic scales is not complete. While the mechanism of dissemination across regions and states of the United States has been described, understanding the determinants of dissemination between counties has not been elucidated. The paucity of high resolution spatial-temporal influenza incidence data to evaluate disease structure is often not available. Methodology and Findings: We report on the underlying relationship between the spread of influenza and human movement between counties of one state. Significant synchrony in the timing of epidemics exists across the entire state and decay with distance (regional correlation = 62%). Synchrony as a function of population size display evidence of hierarchical spread with more synchronized epidemics occurring among the most populated counties. A gravity model describing movement between two populations is a stronger predictor of influenza spread than adult movement to and from workplaces suggesting that non-routine and leisure travel drive local epidemics. Conclusions: These findings highlight the complex nature of influenza spread across multiple geographic scales. © 2012 Stark et al

Temperature synchronizes temporal variation in laying dates across European hole-nesting passerines

Publisher Copyright: © 2022 The Authors. Ecology published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Ecological Society of America.Identifying the environmental drivers of variation in fitness-related traits is a central objective in ecology and evolutionary biology. Temporal fluctuations of these environmental drivers are often synchronized at large spatial scales. Yet, whether synchronous environmental conditions can generate spatial synchrony in fitness-related trait values (i.e., correlated temporal trait fluctuations across populations) is poorly understood. Using data from long-term monitored populations of blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus, n = 31), great tits (Parus major, n = 35), and pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca, n = 20) across Europe, we assessed the influence of two local climatic variables (mean temperature and mean precipitation in February–May) on spatial synchrony in three fitness-related traits: laying date, clutch size, and fledgling number. We found a high degree of spatial synchrony in laying date but a lower degree in clutch size and fledgling number for each species. Temperature strongly influenced spatial synchrony in laying date for resident blue tits and great tits but not for migratory pied flycatchers. This is a relevant finding in the context of environmental impacts on populations because spatial synchrony in fitness-related trait values among populations may influence fluctuations in vital rates or population abundances. If environmentally induced spatial synchrony in fitness-related traits increases the spatial synchrony in vital rates or population abundances, this will ultimately increase the risk of extinction for populations and species. Assessing how environmental conditions influence spatiotemporal variation in trait values improves our mechanistic understanding of environmental impacts on populations.Peer reviewe

Climate-change related regime shifts have altered spatial synchrony of plankton dynamics in the North Sea

During the 1980s the North Sea plankton community underwent a well-documented ecosystem regime shift, including both spatial changes (northward species range shifts) and temporal changes (increases in the total abundances of warmer-water species). This regime shift has been attributed to climate change. Plankton provide a link between climate and higher-trophic-level organisms, which can forage on large spatial and temporal scales. It is therefore important to understand not only whether climate change affects purely spatial or temporal aspects of plankton dynamics, but also whether it affects spatio-temporal aspects such as metapopulation synchrony. If plankton synchrony is altered, higher-trophic-level feeding patterns may be modified. A second motivation for investigating changes in synchrony is that the possibility of such alterations has been examined for few organisms, in spite of the fact that synchrony is ubiquitous and of major importance in ecology. This study uses correlation coefficients and spectral analysis to investigate whether synchrony changed between the periods 1959-1980 and 1989-2010. Twenty-three plankton taxa, sea surface temperature (SST), and wind speed were examined. Results revealed that synchrony in SST and plankton was altered. Changes were idiosyncratic, and were not explained by changes in abundance. Changes in the synchrony of Calanus helgolandicus and Para-pseudocalanus spp appeared to be driven by changes in SST synchrony. This study is one of few to document alterations of synchrony and climate-change impacts on synchrony. We discuss why climate-change impacts on synchrony may well be more common and consequential than previously recognized