Set-membership identification and fault detection using a Bayesian framework

This paper deals with the problem of set-membership identification and fault detection using a Bayesian framework. The paper presents how the set-membership model estimation problem can be reformulated from the Bayesian viewpoint in order to, first, determine the feasible parameter set in the identification stage and, second, check the consistency between the measurement data and the model in the fault-detection stage. The paper shows that, assuming uniform distributed measurement noise and uniform model prior probability distributions, the Bayesian approach leads to the same feasible parameter set than the well-known set-membership technique based on approximating the feasible parameter set using sets. Additionally, it can deal with models that are nonlinear in the parameters. The single-output and multiple-output cases are addressed as well. The procedure and results are illustrated by means of the application to a quadruple-tank process.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

A probabilistic interpretation of set-membership filtering: application to polynomial systems through polytopic bounding

Set-membership estimation is usually formulated in the context of set-valued calculus and no probabilistic calculations are necessary. In this paper, we show that set-membership estimation can be equivalently formulated in the probabilistic setting by employing sets of probability measures. Inference in set-membership estimation is thus carried out by computing expectations with respect to the updated set of probability measures P as in the probabilistic case. In particular, it is shown that inference can be performed by solving a particular semi-infinite linear programming problem, which is a special case of the truncated moment problem in which only the zero-th order moment is known (i.e., the support). By writing the dual of the above semi-infinite linear programming problem, it is shown that, if the nonlinearities in the measurement and process equations are polynomial and if the bounding sets for initial state, process and measurement noises are described by polynomial inequalities, then an approximation of this semi-infinite linear programming problem can efficiently be obtained by using the theory of sum-of-squares polynomial optimization. We then derive a smart greedy procedure to compute a polytopic outer-approximation of the true membership-set, by computing the minimum-volume polytope that outer-bounds the set that includes all the means computed with respect to P

A Bayesian approach to robust identification: application to fault detection

In the Control Engineering field, the so-called Robust Identification techniques deal with the problem of obtaining not only a nominal model of the plant, but also an estimate of the uncertainty associated to the nominal model. Such model of uncertainty is typically characterized as a region in the parameter space or as an uncertainty band around the frequency response of the nominal model. Uncertainty models have been widely used in the design of robust controllers and, recently, their use in model-based fault detection procedures is increasing. In this later case, consistency between new measurements and the uncertainty region is checked. When an inconsistency is found, the existence of a fault is decided. There exist two main approaches to the modeling of model uncertainty: the deterministic/worst case methods and the stochastic/probabilistic methods. At present, there are a number of different methods, e.g., model error modeling, set-membership identification and non-stationary stochastic embedding. In this dissertation we summarize the main procedures and illustrate their results by means of several examples of the literature. As contribution we propose a Bayesian methodology to solve the robust identification problem. The approach is highly unifying since many robust identification techniques can be interpreted as particular cases of the Bayesian framework. Also, the methodology can deal with non-linear structures such as the ones derived from the use of observers. The obtained Bayesian uncertainty models are used to detect faults in a quadruple-tank process and in a three-bladed wind turbine

AI Solutions for MDS: Artificial Intelligence Techniques for Misuse Detection and Localisation in Telecommunication Environments

This report considers the application of Articial Intelligence (AI) techniques to the problem of misuse detection and misuse localisation within telecommunications environments. A broad survey of techniques is provided, that covers inter alia rule based systems, model-based systems, case based reasoning, pattern matching, clustering and feature extraction, articial neural networks, genetic algorithms, arti cial immune systems, agent based systems, data mining and a variety of hybrid approaches. The report then considers the central issue of event correlation, that is at the heart of many misuse detection and localisation systems. The notion of being able to infer misuse by the correlation of individual temporally distributed events within a multiple data stream environment is explored, and a range of techniques, covering model based approaches, `programmed' AI and machine learning paradigms. It is found that, in general, correlation is best achieved via rule based approaches, but that these suffer from a number of drawbacks, such as the difculty of developing and maintaining an appropriate knowledge base, and the lack of ability to generalise from known misuses to new unseen misuses. Two distinct approaches are evident. One attempts to encode knowledge of known misuses, typically within rules, and use this to screen events. This approach cannot generally detect misuses for which it has not been programmed, i.e. it is prone to issuing false negatives. The other attempts to `learn' the features of event patterns that constitute normal behaviour, and, by observing patterns that do not match expected behaviour, detect when a misuse has occurred. This approach is prone to issuing false positives, i.e. inferring misuse from innocent patterns of behaviour that the system was not trained to recognise. Contemporary approaches are seen to favour hybridisation, often combining detection or localisation mechanisms for both abnormal and normal behaviour, the former to capture known cases of misuse, the latter to capture unknown cases. In some systems, these mechanisms even work together to update each other to increase detection rates and lower false positive rates. It is concluded that hybridisation offers the most promising future direction, but that a rule or state based component is likely to remain, being the most natural approach to the correlation of complex events. The challenge, then, is to mitigate the weaknesses of canonical programmed systems such that learning, generalisation and adaptation are more readily facilitated

Fault detection and isolation for a wind turbine benchmark using a mixed Bayesian/Set-membership approach

This paper addresses the problem of fault detection and isolation of wind turbines using a mixed Bayesian/Set-membership approach. Modeling errors are assumed to be unknown but bounded, following the set-membership approach. On the other hand, measurement noise is also assumed to be bounded, but following a statistical distribution inside the bounds. To avoid false alarms, the fault detection problem is formulated in a set-membership context. Regarding fault isolation, a new fault isolation scheme that is inspired on the Bayesian fault isolation framework is developed. Faults are isolated by matching the fault detection test results, enhanced by a complementary consistency index that measures the certainty of not being in a fault situation, with the structural information about the faults stored in the theoretical fault signature matrix. The main difference with respect to the classical Bayesian approach is that only models of fault-free behavior are used. Finally, the proposed FDI method is assessed against the wind turbine FDI benchmark proposed in the literature, where a set of realistic fault scenarios in wind turbines are proposed.Peer Reviewe

Resilient Distributed Energy Management for Systems of Interconnected Microgrids

In this paper, distributed energy management of interconnected microgrids, which is stated as a dynamic economic dispatch problem, is studied. Since the distributed approach requires cooperation of all local controllers, when some of them do not comply with the distributed algorithm that is applied to the system, the performance of the system might be compromised. Specifically, it is considered that adversarial agents (microgrids with their controllers) might implement control inputs that are different than the ones obtained from the distributed algorithm. By performing such behavior, these agents might have better performance at the expense of deteriorating the performance of the regular agents. This paper proposes a methodology to deal with this type of adversarial agents such that we can still guarantee that the regular agents can still obtain feasible, though suboptimal, control inputs in the presence of adversarial behaviors. The methodology consists of two steps: (i) the robustification of the underlying optimization problem and (ii) the identification of adversarial agents, which uses hypothesis testing with Bayesian inference and requires to solve a local mixed-integer optimization problem. Furthermore, the proposed methodology also prevents the regular agents to be affected by the adversaries once the adversarial agents are identified. In addition, we also provide a sub-optimality certificate of the proposed methodology.Comment: 8 pages, Conference on Decision and Control (CDC) 201

Variational Bayesian modified adaptive Mamdani Fuzzy Modelling for use in condition monitoring

The paper proposes a new Adaptive Mamdani Fuzzy Model (AMFM) based system modelling methodology that improves on traditional Mamdani fuzzy rule based system (FRBS) techniques through use of alternative membership functions and a defuzzification mechanism that is ‘differentiable’, allowing a back error propagation (BEP) algorithm to refine the initial fuzzy model. Moreover, a variational Bayesian (VB) method is applied to simplify the results via automatic selection of the number of input rules so that redundant rules can be removed for the initial modelling phase. The efficacy of the proposed VB modified AMFM (VB-AMFM) approach is demonstrated through experimental trials using measurements from a compressor in an industrial gas turbine (IGT)

One-Class Classification: Taxonomy of Study and Review of Techniques

One-class classification (OCC) algorithms aim to build classification models when the negative class is either absent, poorly sampled or not well defined. This unique situation constrains the learning of efficient classifiers by defining class boundary just with the knowledge of positive class. The OCC problem has been considered and applied under many research themes, such as outlier/novelty detection and concept learning. In this paper we present a unified view of the general problem of OCC by presenting a taxonomy of study for OCC problems, which is based on the availability of training data, algorithms used and the application domains applied. We further delve into each of the categories of the proposed taxonomy and present a comprehensive literature review of the OCC algorithms, techniques and methodologies with a focus on their significance, limitations and applications. We conclude our paper by discussing some open research problems in the field of OCC and present our vision for future research.Comment: 24 pages + 11 pages of references, 8 figure

Developing Methods of Obtaining Quality Failure Information from Complex Systems

The complexity in most engineering systems is constantly growing due to ever-increasing technological advancements. This result in a corresponding need for methods that adequately account for the reliability of such systems based on failure information from components that make up these systems. This dissertation presents an approach to validating qualitative function failure results from model abstraction details. The impact of the level of detail available to a system designer during conceptual stages of design is considered for failure space exploration in a complex system. Specifically, the study develops an efficient approach towards detailed function and behavior modeling required for complex system analyses. In addition, a comprehensive research and documentation of existing function failure analysis methodologies is also synthesized into identified structural groupings. Using simulations, known governing equations are evaluated for components and system models to study responses to faults by accounting for detailed failure scenarios, component behaviors, fault propagation paths, and overall system performance. The components were simulated at nominal states and varying degrees of fault representing actual modes of operation. Information on product design and provisions on expected working conditions of components were used in the simulations to address normally overlooked areas during installation. The results of system model simulations were investigated using clustering analysis to develop an efficient grouping method and measure of confidence for the obtained results. The intellectual merit of this work is the use of a simulation based approach in studying how generated failure scenarios reveal component fault interactions leading to a better understanding of fault propagation within design models. The information from using varying fidelity models for system analysis help in identifying models that are sufficient enough at the conceptual design stages to highlight potential faults. This will reduce resources such as cost, manpower and time spent during system design. A broader impact of the project is to help design engineers identifying critical components, quantifying risks associated with using particular components in their prototypes early in the design process and help improving fault tolerant system designs. This research looks to eventually establishing a baseline for validating and comparing theories of complex systems analysis

A two-level structure for advanced space power system automation

The tasks to be carried out during the three-year project period are: (1) performing extensive simulation using existing mathematical models to build a specific knowledge base of the operating characteristics of space power systems; (2) carrying out the necessary basic research on hierarchical control structures, real-time quantitative algorithms, and decision-theoretic procedures; (3) developing a two-level automation scheme for fault detection and diagnosis, maintenance and restoration scheduling, and load management; and (4) testing and demonstration. The outlines of the proposed system structure that served as a master plan for this project, work accomplished, concluding remarks, and ideas for future work are also addressed